WEBVTT 00:00.466 --> 00:02.333 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% [Scott] Coming up on "Energy Switch," 00:02.333 --> 00:03.833 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% we'll look at puzzling conflicts 00:03.833 --> 00:06.066 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% in the energy and climate world. 00:06.066 --> 00:08.300 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - Denying climate change is a problem, 00:08.300 --> 00:10.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% but blaming everything on climate change 00:10.133 --> 00:11.400 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% is also a problem, 00:11.400 --> 00:14.966 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% and figuring out how do we keep our scientific institutions 00:14.966 --> 00:17.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% robust and secure in this political environment 00:17.333 --> 00:18.466 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% is gonna be really important. 00:18.466 --> 00:20.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - We are facing an uncertain future 00:20.733 --> 00:24.200 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% so we need to embed flexibility in that policy. 00:24.200 --> 00:26.100 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% Climate change, energy transition 00:26.100 --> 00:27.866 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% is an international issue 00:27.866 --> 00:29.700 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% and we are in a situation where actually, 00:29.700 --> 00:32.033 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% international cooperation is breaking down. 00:32.600 --> 00:34.233 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% [Scott] Next on "Energy Switch," 00:34.233 --> 00:36.733 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% energy and climate paradoxes. 00:39.133 --> 00:40.500 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% [Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" 00:40.500 --> 00:43.600 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% was provided in part by 00:43.600 --> 00:46.133 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% The University of Texas at Austin, 00:46.133 --> 00:48.466 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% leading research in energy and the environment 00:48.466 --> 00:50.466 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% for a better tomorrow. 00:50.466 --> 00:53.166 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% What starts here changes the world. 00:55.366 --> 00:56.600 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% [upbeat music] 00:56.600 --> 00:57.833 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - I'm Scott Tinker, 00:57.833 --> 00:59.833 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and I'm an energy scientist. 00:59.833 --> 01:01.600 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% I work in the field, 01:01.600 --> 01:02.733 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% lead research, 01:02.733 --> 01:04.100 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% speak around the world, 01:04.100 --> 01:05.533 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% write articles, 01:05.533 --> 01:08.133 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and make films about energy. 01:08.133 --> 01:10.833 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% This show brings together leading experts 01:10.833 --> 01:13.666 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% on vital topics in energy and climate. 01:14.133 --> 01:15.933 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% They may have different perspectives, 01:15.933 --> 01:18.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% but my goal is to learn, and illuminate, 01:18.966 --> 01:22.300 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and bring diverging views together towards solutions. 01:23.200 --> 01:25.566 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Welcome to the "Energy Switch." 01:26.966 --> 01:30.000 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% There are many paradoxes in climate and energy. 01:30.000 --> 01:33.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% For instance, people want energy to drive their cars 01:33.100 --> 01:34.533 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% and heat their homes, 01:34.533 --> 01:37.066 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% but don't want any new power lines or pipelines 01:37.066 --> 01:38.633 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% to bring it to them. 01:38.633 --> 01:41.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Nuclear is a zero-carbon energy source, 01:41.533 --> 01:44.366 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% yet many climate advocates oppose it. 01:44.366 --> 01:47.200 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% Some U.S. states impose EV mandates, 01:47.200 --> 01:49.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% but prohibit mining for battery metals. 01:49.966 --> 01:52.366 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% We'll examine these and other paradoxes 01:52.366 --> 01:55.933 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% with two experts in economics, energy, and climate policy. 01:57.066 --> 02:00.066 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% Dario Liguti is the director of sustainable energy 02:00.066 --> 02:02.566 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% for the U.N. Economic Commission for Europe, 02:02.566 --> 02:04.233 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and a former managing director 02:04.233 --> 02:06.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and global head of finance for GE Capital. 02:07.366 --> 02:10.433 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% Roger Pielke Jr. Is a professor of environmental science 02:10.433 --> 02:12.233 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% at the University of Colorado, 02:12.233 --> 02:14.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% a former senior fellow at the Breakthrough Institute, 02:14.866 --> 02:17.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and author of three books on climate policy. 02:19.333 --> 02:21.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Next up, energy and climate paradoxes 02:21.966 --> 02:23.833 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and how we might resolve them. 02:24.766 --> 02:26.433 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% All right, welcome. 02:27.166 --> 02:30.200 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% Energy and climate paradoxes. 02:30.200 --> 02:32.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% They're everywhere in the energy world. 02:32.600 --> 02:35.033 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Look forward to chatting about some of 'em. 02:35.033 --> 02:39.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Poor countries around the world, emerging economies, 02:39.533 --> 02:43.966 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% developing economies who don't have great energy security. 02:43.966 --> 02:45.533 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% It comes and goes to them. 02:45.533 --> 02:47.900 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% They want to expand their energy use. 02:47.900 --> 02:49.800 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% The wealthy countries wanna decarbonize, 02:49.800 --> 02:52.500 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% we're sometimes saying to them, you should decarbonize too. 02:52.500 --> 02:54.000 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% Is this a paradox? 02:54.000 --> 02:56.700 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% - Well, you have to understand that first and foremost, 02:56.700 --> 02:58.333 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% for them, energy is development. 02:58.333 --> 03:00.000 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% It's not about energy transition 03:00.000 --> 03:01.733 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% because they're not transitioning. 03:01.733 --> 03:03.366 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - From poverty to something else. 03:03.366 --> 03:04.366 align:left position:37.5% line:89% size:52.5% - Exactly. 03:04.366 --> 03:06.666 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So they look at energy with two different hats. 03:06.666 --> 03:10.166 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% They're looking at the decentralized energy production, 03:10.166 --> 03:12.833 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% you know, solar, mostly renewable energy in rural areas, 03:12.833 --> 03:16.566 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% for example, to provide a minimum of energy services 03:16.566 --> 03:17.866 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% to a population. 03:17.866 --> 03:18.933 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% - Just getting started. 03:18.933 --> 03:20.566 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - And then you look, they're looking at developing 03:20.566 --> 03:22.466 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% their own industry, of course, 03:22.466 --> 03:23.600 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and there they're looking of course 03:23.600 --> 03:25.566 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% at, you know, coal and gas. 03:25.566 --> 03:28.466 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% You cannot say you just only develop renewable energies 03:28.466 --> 03:30.000 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% because that's not enough. 03:30.000 --> 03:33.566 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% They need the whole solution, the whole portfolio 03:33.566 --> 03:36.633 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% of technologies to develop, and that portfolio of technology 03:36.633 --> 03:39.666 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% needs to be adapted to their individual needs. 03:39.666 --> 03:40.866 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - It's complicated. 03:40.866 --> 03:44.233 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - So it's a complicated equation to pull it through, 03:44.233 --> 03:47.133 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and it's difficult to say you should be doing that. 03:47.133 --> 03:48.133 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% Actually not. 03:48.133 --> 03:50.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% We should be helping them in doing the right thing 03:50.533 --> 03:52.333 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% by providing technology. 03:52.333 --> 03:55.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% One thing it's which here instead in the emerging market 03:55.533 --> 03:57.366 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% is particularly true, is investment. 03:57.366 --> 04:01.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% It's capital, and that's where I believe we, 04:01.100 --> 04:03.100 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% the western world, should help them 04:03.100 --> 04:05.500 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% is by providing technology and investment 04:05.500 --> 04:07.266 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% because we are rich of both. 04:07.266 --> 04:08.266 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% - That's right. 04:08.266 --> 04:09.700 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Are the policies that we're trying to implement 04:09.700 --> 04:12.566 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% somehow hindering this developing growth, Roger, 04:12.566 --> 04:13.533 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% or how do you see that? 04:13.533 --> 04:15.566 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - Yeah, I mean, here's another paradox. 04:15.566 --> 04:17.300 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% A lot, and I see a lot of this, 04:17.300 --> 04:18.766 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% there's a lot of well-meaning folks 04:18.766 --> 04:23.900 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% who are intent upon improving household energy access, 04:23.900 --> 04:26.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% electrification in very poor places. 04:26.633 --> 04:28.233 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% And on one level, that's great, 04:28.233 --> 04:31.333 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% it raises standards of living, but on the other hand, 04:31.333 --> 04:33.166 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% we're keeping people in poverty, 04:33.166 --> 04:37.066 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% but at a little bit more tolerable level of poverty, 04:37.066 --> 04:39.400 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and we have to realize that everyone around the world 04:39.400 --> 04:41.966 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% is striving for an economy 04:41.966 --> 04:44.066 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% with a 21st century infrastructure. 04:44.066 --> 04:46.100 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% From the roads in front of you, to stores, 04:46.100 --> 04:49.466 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% to factories, to airplanes, and African countries, 04:49.466 --> 04:53.566 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% as you say, have noted this, again, 04:53.566 --> 04:55.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% a paradox that many of those countries 04:55.600 --> 04:58.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% are rich in fossil fuel resources, 04:58.600 --> 05:01.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% but cannot ask the capital to develop them, 05:01.966 --> 05:04.500 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% the institutions that are needed to govern them, 05:04.500 --> 05:06.633 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and actually they face opposition, 05:06.633 --> 05:10.533 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and this does have the pernicious effect of countries 05:10.533 --> 05:13.500 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% that have contributed nothing to the climate problem, 05:13.500 --> 05:15.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and even if they were to develop their fossil fuels, 05:15.866 --> 05:18.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% would contribute, you know, marginally a little more 05:18.633 --> 05:22.500 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% are effectively being kept out of his path to development, 05:22.500 --> 05:25.133 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% which the rich parts of the world already took advantage of. 05:25.133 --> 05:26.566 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% - Right, yeah. 05:26.566 --> 05:29.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Nuclear, I mean, it's zero-carbon source 05:29.900 --> 05:31.666 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% once it's built, 05:31.666 --> 05:35.266 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% reliable, pretty affordable once it's built. 05:35.266 --> 05:36.933 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% A lot of climate advocates, 05:36.933 --> 05:39.633 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% or those who are most concerned about climate, 05:39.633 --> 05:41.466 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% many of 'em are opposed to nuclear. 05:41.466 --> 05:42.666 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% What's the thinking here? 05:42.666 --> 05:45.233 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - I think, well, the discussion around nuclear 05:45.233 --> 05:46.933 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% is really about safety. 05:46.933 --> 05:47.966 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% - Right. 05:47.966 --> 05:50.600 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% - And in the nuclear industry, because of this, 05:50.600 --> 05:52.966 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% this continued attention on safety 05:52.966 --> 05:55.400 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% has actually the highest safety standards 05:55.400 --> 05:57.033 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% in the energy world. 05:57.033 --> 05:59.433 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - Yeah, how do we counter that fear? 05:59.433 --> 06:01.633 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% - How do we-- - It's education. 06:01.633 --> 06:04.200 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% I think it's education, it's talking openly about that, 06:04.200 --> 06:05.966 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% and, you know, it's talking about data, 06:05.966 --> 06:08.233 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% it's talking with numbers, 06:08.233 --> 06:11.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and is today, it's a political decision. 06:11.866 --> 06:14.400 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% It's not really an economic or technological decision 06:14.400 --> 06:15.533 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% because certain countries 06:15.533 --> 06:17.800 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% are perfectly fine with nuclear, take France. 06:17.800 --> 06:20.866 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Other countries are totally against nuclear, take Germany, 06:20.866 --> 06:22.766 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and they're both, you know, close to each other. 06:22.766 --> 06:25.300 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% What's the difference between France and Germany? 06:25.300 --> 06:26.800 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% It's a political issue. 06:26.800 --> 06:27.666 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% [Scott] Language. 06:27.666 --> 06:29.800 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - Well, yes. 06:29.800 --> 06:31.600 align:left position:37.5% line:89% size:52.5% It's true, 06:31.600 --> 06:32.900 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% and as well, cuisine. 06:32.900 --> 06:33.933 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% - That's right. 06:33.933 --> 06:35.300 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - But one of the issues around nuclear, I think, 06:35.300 --> 06:37.166 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and that it scares a lot of people, 06:37.166 --> 06:39.166 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% scares or concerns a lot of people, 06:39.166 --> 06:42.433 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% is the budget and the time to build 06:42.433 --> 06:45.133 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% the nuclear power plants because typically, 06:45.133 --> 06:49.433 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% they've been over budget, and then by many years, delayed. 06:49.433 --> 06:52.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% So I think, you know, the small modular reactors 06:52.933 --> 06:56.233 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% probably could help in assuaging 06:56.233 --> 06:59.766 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% that kind of resistance from the population 06:59.766 --> 07:02.366 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% because they are much smaller scale, 07:02.366 --> 07:05.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% they are more easily deployable, they cost less. 07:05.900 --> 07:08.966 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% It's on the technology which needs to be proven. 07:08.966 --> 07:10.066 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% [Scott] Right. 07:10.066 --> 07:12.266 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - I think we also have to remember that worldwide, 07:12.266 --> 07:15.833 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% there's something like 420 nuclear power plants. 07:15.833 --> 07:17.033 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% That's not very many. 07:17.666 --> 07:20.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% The United Arab Emirates has committed to building 07:20.866 --> 07:22.266 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% a series of nuclear power plants, 07:22.266 --> 07:26.233 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% which are coming in at successively lower costs. 07:26.233 --> 07:28.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% So imagine a world where we committed to building 07:28.733 --> 07:30.600 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% 2,000 nuclear power plants. 07:30.600 --> 07:32.933 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% If it's like other technologies like solar, like wind, 07:32.933 --> 07:35.333 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% we would fully expect that if we developed 07:35.333 --> 07:37.700 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% a sizable industry, not these one-offs, 07:37.700 --> 07:39.700 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% that costs may come down. 07:39.700 --> 07:41.133 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% Even so, so you take 07:41.133 --> 07:43.300 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% the Vogel nuclear power plant in Georgia, 07:43.300 --> 07:45.433 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% which has recently come online. 07:45.433 --> 07:48.266 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% First nuclear power plant in the United States in decades. 07:48.266 --> 07:49.633 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% It was over budget, 07:49.633 --> 07:50.600 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% billions of dollars, 07:50.600 --> 07:52.300 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% there was court cases fought over it, 07:52.300 --> 07:54.533 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% a lot of money spent in trying to oppose it, 07:54.533 --> 07:55.866 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% even with all those expenses 07:55.866 --> 07:58.900 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and all those difficulties, there is cost certainty 07:58.900 --> 08:02.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% for Georgia residents to 2080 and beyond. 08:02.100 --> 08:03.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And, you know, the last thing I'll say 08:03.433 --> 08:06.566 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% is if climate change is indeed, you know, 08:06.566 --> 08:09.966 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% the challenge of our generation, the challenge of our era, 08:09.966 --> 08:12.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% maybe it's okay we pay a little bit more for nuclear 08:12.200 --> 08:15.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% to ensure that we don't have these unpredictable, 08:15.633 --> 08:18.366 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% unexpected impacts of climate change down the road. 08:18.366 --> 08:20.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - Right, you know, you said the Georgian residents 08:20.600 --> 08:25.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% will be assured of a price stability to 2080, right? 08:25.633 --> 08:27.766 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% But we have seen the impact of climate change 08:27.766 --> 08:31.466 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% last year on power plants, nuclear power plants in France 08:31.466 --> 08:34.833 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% when suddenly you have issues lack of water availability 08:34.833 --> 08:36.600 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% for cooling down power plants, 08:36.600 --> 08:39.666 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and lack of water for hydropower plants, 08:39.666 --> 08:41.533 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and I think that is an issue that, you know, 08:41.533 --> 08:44.000 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% when planning and looking at the different technologies, 08:44.000 --> 08:46.166 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% one needs really to take into consideration 08:46.166 --> 08:47.633 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% because you might find yourself 08:47.633 --> 08:50.400 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% with the infrastructure that is not performing 08:50.400 --> 08:51.933 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% as they were supposed to. 08:51.933 --> 08:53.700 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And therefore, and I think, you know, 08:53.700 --> 08:56.466 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% diversification is the name of the game 08:56.466 --> 08:58.533 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% because you don't know, we're walking 08:58.533 --> 09:01.400 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% into an era of uncertainty. 09:01.400 --> 09:04.566 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% And so, if you deploy a wide variety of technologies 09:04.566 --> 09:06.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% each one resilient to a different aspect 09:06.500 --> 09:09.100 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% in climate change, you can play that game. 09:09.100 --> 09:10.566 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% [Scott] Yeah, you gotta have optionality. 09:10.566 --> 09:12.333 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% [Dario] You gotta have optionality. 09:12.333 --> 09:13.466 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% - Listening to Dario's comments, 09:13.466 --> 09:15.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% it made me think, well, this is why natural gas 09:15.133 --> 09:16.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% is gonna be around for a long time 09:16.833 --> 09:20.933 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% because natural gas provides a firm backstop 09:20.933 --> 09:22.633 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% that is less weather dependent, 09:22.633 --> 09:25.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and can be started and stopped quickly. 09:25.000 --> 09:26.266 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% - Interesting. - And the question is, 09:26.266 --> 09:29.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% well then how do we pay for these backup technologies? 09:29.266 --> 09:31.133 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% How do we overbuild? 09:31.133 --> 09:33.700 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And maybe that's a cost of society 09:33.700 --> 09:36.833 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% in a world with more variability 09:36.833 --> 09:38.466 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and uncertainty going forward. 09:38.466 --> 09:40.266 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% But again, this is where wealthy countries 09:40.266 --> 09:43.233 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% can probably afford that backstop and redundancy, 09:43.233 --> 09:46.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and, you know, the only way for poor countries 09:46.133 --> 09:47.766 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% to be able to develop that same level 09:47.766 --> 09:51.033 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% of redundancy and robustness is to become wealthy countries. 09:51.033 --> 09:53.666 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And so how do we create a virtuous cycle 09:53.666 --> 09:55.133 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% where we're getting wealthy, 09:55.133 --> 09:56.766 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% we're cleaning up the energy system, 09:56.766 --> 09:58.200 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% we're creating redundancies 09:58.200 --> 10:00.366 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% so that the economy continue to go. 10:00.366 --> 10:01.633 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% That's the challenge. 10:01.633 --> 10:03.366 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% That's how we beat the paradox. 10:03.366 --> 10:06.300 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - So, Canada was burning this summer, you know, 10:06.300 --> 10:10.066 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% a lot of fires and I thought, wow, that's a lot of fires. 10:10.066 --> 10:12.200 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And then go to the data and look at it, 10:12.200 --> 10:14.233 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% acreage burn has actually been coming down 10:14.233 --> 10:15.566 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% the last 20 years. 10:15.566 --> 10:17.966 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% I mean, you've studied climate too. 10:17.966 --> 10:20.233 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% I hear that a lot, extremes, and then I look at data 10:20.233 --> 10:22.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and I say, well, I don't see the extremes always. 10:22.733 --> 10:25.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% I mean, this seems like a paradox to me too, 10:25.133 --> 10:26.833 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% the paradox of communication. 10:26.833 --> 10:27.833 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% - I think it is true 10:27.833 --> 10:30.200 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% that a lot of the discussion of extremes 10:30.200 --> 10:32.100 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% departs from the intergovernmental panel 10:32.100 --> 10:34.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% on climate change and our consensus understanding. 10:34.700 --> 10:36.533 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% At the same time, climate change is real, 10:36.533 --> 10:38.400 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and it is affecting things like fire, 10:38.400 --> 10:40.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% weather, and heat waves, and so on. 10:40.433 --> 10:42.233 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% Denying climate change is a problem, 10:42.233 --> 10:44.033 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% but blaming everything on climate change 10:44.033 --> 10:45.566 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% is also a problem. [Scott] Right. 10:45.566 --> 10:48.900 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - And figuring out how do we keep our scientific institutions 10:48.900 --> 10:51.566 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% robust and secure in this political environment, 10:51.566 --> 10:54.400 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% especially for professionals who build things 10:54.400 --> 10:55.566 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% is gonna be really important. 10:55.566 --> 10:59.200 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - So EVs, you know, electric vehicles, 10:59.200 --> 11:00.600 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% they do require mining. 11:00.600 --> 11:03.366 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Some states and other countries are mandating them, 11:03.366 --> 11:05.566 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% yet they won't do the mining. 11:05.566 --> 11:08.166 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% I guess the irony here, or the paradox to me, 11:08.166 --> 11:11.566 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% is still, somebody's gotta mine. 11:11.566 --> 11:14.566 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% China processes today all these metals, 11:14.566 --> 11:16.766 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% 80% of the key metals. 11:16.766 --> 11:18.000 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% How do you see this? 11:18.000 --> 11:19.400 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% - Both the Europe and the U.S. 11:19.400 --> 11:21.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% have already taken important policy 11:21.633 --> 11:24.400 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and important industrial decisions around that. 11:24.400 --> 11:28.233 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% I mean, the EU is proposing the EU Raw Materials Act, 11:28.233 --> 11:29.933 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% which foresees a minimum, 11:29.933 --> 11:32.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% it mandates a minimum of domestic production 11:32.866 --> 11:34.366 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% of the raw material, 11:34.366 --> 11:37.966 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% a minimum of domestic processing capacity, 11:37.966 --> 11:40.900 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and a minimum of recycling capacity. 11:40.900 --> 11:42.166 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% We actually attach now, 11:42.166 --> 11:45.833 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% in Europe, to every EV battery, a digital passport. 11:45.833 --> 11:47.633 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% That digital passport tells you 11:47.633 --> 11:49.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% exactly where the components are coming from, 11:49.466 --> 11:50.733 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% where is the supply chain, 11:50.733 --> 11:52.133 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% and how you're gonna dispose them. 11:52.133 --> 11:53.466 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% - Interesting. - But coming back 11:53.466 --> 11:56.100 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% to the mining thing that you mentioned, first and foremost, 11:56.100 --> 12:00.566 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% we need, first of all, to learn where are these reserves. 12:00.566 --> 12:02.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% 'Cause I can tell you one thing, and you're a geologist, 12:02.733 --> 12:04.266 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% you know better than me this, 12:04.266 --> 12:05.566 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% we haven't been looking for those. 12:05.566 --> 12:06.633 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% - We haven't studied for a while. 12:06.633 --> 12:07.700 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% - For a while. 12:07.700 --> 12:09.366 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% We've been looking for all sort of other things, 12:09.366 --> 12:10.700 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% not for those things. 12:10.700 --> 12:15.166 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% But other thing is we have mining 12:15.166 --> 12:18.133 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% methodologies and processes, which haven't really changed. 12:18.133 --> 12:19.200 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - No, they haven't. 12:19.200 --> 12:20.433 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% - It's one of the industries 12:20.433 --> 12:22.800 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% where there's no artificial intelligence 12:22.800 --> 12:24.966 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% really not yet enough, 12:24.966 --> 12:27.466 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% you don't have a lot of other concerns around, you know, 12:27.466 --> 12:30.266 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% how do you diminish, they're starting out mining companies 12:30.266 --> 12:32.766 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% to take into consideration these aspects. 12:32.766 --> 12:34.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% So certainly, I think there is hope 12:34.900 --> 12:37.266 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% to improve our mining operations 12:37.266 --> 12:39.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% if you can start with modules, you know, 12:39.100 --> 12:41.100 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and then minimize that impact. 12:41.100 --> 12:43.000 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% Of course there will be an environmental impact. 12:43.000 --> 12:46.200 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% Certainly, mining operation you're, you know? 12:46.200 --> 12:48.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - I've never had anybody say it's really green, but- 12:48.466 --> 12:49.633 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% [Dario] You can do a lot better. 12:49.633 --> 12:51.800 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% That's exactly the point. - Interesting. 12:51.800 --> 12:54.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - And so that will go towards, you know, 12:54.633 --> 12:55.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% some of the concerns of the people 12:55.900 --> 12:57.533 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% that they don't want that in the backyard. 12:57.533 --> 12:58.400 align:left position:42.5% line:89% size:47.5% - Yeah. 12:58.400 --> 13:00.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - You know, there's an acronym BANANA. 13:00.000 --> 13:02.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Build absolutely nothing anywhere near anyone. 13:02.200 --> 13:03.466 align:left position:42.5% line:83% size:47.5% - Yeah. - And that is 13:03.466 --> 13:05.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% an operating philosophy in many places, 13:05.733 --> 13:07.133 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% particularly in the United States, 13:07.133 --> 13:10.100 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% where we want all the benefits of modern energy services 13:10.100 --> 13:12.466 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and modern energy supplies, but none of the costs, 13:12.466 --> 13:14.233 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and certainly not in my backyard. 13:14.233 --> 13:16.433 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% So again, this is one of those paradoxes. 13:16.433 --> 13:20.333 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% It's a challenge, and every time I see protests 13:20.333 --> 13:24.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% against any kind of natural resource extraction, 13:24.266 --> 13:27.400 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% that's not gonna reduce the use of materials. 13:27.400 --> 13:29.766 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% It means that they're gonna be sourced from somewhere else, 13:29.766 --> 13:31.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and that means some other economy's gonna benefit, 13:31.866 --> 13:34.600 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% or we're going to increase our exposure 13:34.600 --> 13:37.166 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% to, you know, bad actors or pressure. 13:37.166 --> 13:39.333 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - And it may not be done as well, 13:39.333 --> 13:40.900 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% either human rights or environmental. 13:40.900 --> 13:42.766 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - That's exactly right. - That's exactly right. 13:42.766 --> 13:44.333 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% - Do we have anything analogous 13:44.333 --> 13:49.833 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% to this EU Raw Materials Act coming or existing? 13:49.833 --> 13:50.866 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% Do you know? 13:50.866 --> 13:52.300 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - No, I haven't seen anything like that 13:52.300 --> 13:54.266 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% in the United States proposed, 13:54.266 --> 13:55.700 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% and it is an interesting approach 13:55.700 --> 13:59.066 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% certainly for energy security purposes. 13:59.066 --> 14:01.200 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% In the United States, a lot of the debates 14:01.200 --> 14:04.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% are more about what should we ban next? 14:04.000 --> 14:05.133 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% And that seems to me to be 14:05.133 --> 14:07.033 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% a very positive forward-looking approach 14:07.033 --> 14:09.500 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% that recognizes that, yeah, 14:09.500 --> 14:10.933 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% we're gonna have to take our medicine. 14:10.933 --> 14:12.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - We're banning a lot, mining, and pipelines. 14:12.700 --> 14:16.066 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% - And another aspect of that Act, 14:16.066 --> 14:17.866 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% which I think is interesting is obviously, 14:17.866 --> 14:20.066 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Europe is not as rich as the U.S., 14:20.066 --> 14:21.866 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and so the EU has signed some of these 14:21.866 --> 14:24.500 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% strategic partnerships is with Congo, 14:24.500 --> 14:27.400 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Ukraine, 14:27.400 --> 14:29.166 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% with Kazakhstan, which are rich 14:29.166 --> 14:31.233 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% in some of these critical minerals. 14:31.233 --> 14:34.166 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And the beauty about that is that the same standards 14:34.166 --> 14:37.166 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% that you apply in Europe will have to be applied 14:37.166 --> 14:41.200 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% in those minerals that are part of that agreement. 14:41.200 --> 14:43.800 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% - Here's another paradox. 14:43.800 --> 14:45.233 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% You know, U.S. states, 14:45.233 --> 14:47.366 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and probably countries too I could think of, 14:47.366 --> 14:51.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% are kind of meeting their goals, if you will, 14:51.433 --> 14:56.200 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% by importing electrons, and fuels, and products, 14:56.200 --> 14:58.200 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and not producing them there. 14:58.200 --> 14:59.800 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% Only one atmosphere. 14:59.800 --> 15:01.166 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% How do we get? 15:01.166 --> 15:02.366 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% Where are we there? 15:02.366 --> 15:05.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - I mean, it's an age old problem in public policy 15:05.100 --> 15:07.866 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% is that when you set targets, 15:07.866 --> 15:11.966 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% they become subjects to be gained through accounting. 15:11.966 --> 15:14.933 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% This has always been a problem with using emissions 15:14.933 --> 15:17.400 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% as the measure of success for climate policy. 15:17.400 --> 15:18.866 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Emissions are an outcome. 15:18.866 --> 15:20.033 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% What we really wanna do 15:20.033 --> 15:22.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% is reduce the amount of burning of fossil fuels, 15:22.700 --> 15:24.966 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% or at least unmitigated fossil fuels. 15:24.966 --> 15:26.566 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% I mean, one of the reasons we don't do that 15:26.566 --> 15:29.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% is it creates a degree of political accountability. 15:29.333 --> 15:32.866 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% It's not just, you know, 15:32.866 --> 15:34.400 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% individual states, politicians, 15:34.400 --> 15:37.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and advocates like these games too. 15:37.300 --> 15:39.466 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Carbon offsets are a perfect example. 15:39.466 --> 15:42.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% So you can give the impression of making progress 15:42.433 --> 15:45.366 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% when the reality is a little bit more complicated. 15:45.366 --> 15:48.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% So I think adopting policy targets 15:48.600 --> 15:50.133 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% that are much more closely associated 15:50.133 --> 15:53.200 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% with the nature of the problem we're trying to address 15:53.200 --> 15:55.666 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% reduces, you'll never eliminate 15:55.666 --> 15:57.233 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% the gamesmanship in accounting, 15:57.233 --> 15:59.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% but we can reduce the scope for playing those games. 15:59.633 --> 16:03.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - I hadn't thought about it that way, Roger. 16:03.200 --> 16:06.200 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% To be honest with you, I've always thought about, 16:06.200 --> 16:07.900 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% well, it's not the fuels that are the problem. 16:07.900 --> 16:09.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% It's the emissions that are the problem. 16:09.433 --> 16:11.400 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - It kinda proceeds in parallel track. 16:11.400 --> 16:15.100 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% If we had carbon capture and storage 16:15.100 --> 16:17.800 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% or carbon capture utilization at scale, 16:17.800 --> 16:19.533 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% and that was available, then indeed, 16:19.533 --> 16:21.133 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% it would be about the emissions because then, 16:21.133 --> 16:24.400 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% that's a direct, but we don't have that at scale. 16:24.400 --> 16:28.066 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And so sure, let's pursue those technologies in parallel. 16:28.066 --> 16:31.333 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% But until we do so, reigning in the demand 16:31.333 --> 16:35.133 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% for fossil fuel worldwide is probably a much better focus 16:35.133 --> 16:37.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% than saying, well, let's just focus on this output, 16:37.533 --> 16:39.233 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% which is emissions, 16:39.233 --> 16:41.466 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% because that's gonna more directly address 16:41.466 --> 16:43.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% a whole suite of issues, not just the climate issue. 16:43.733 --> 16:44.700 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - Yeah, absolutely. 16:44.700 --> 16:46.366 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% I really think, I agree with Roger, 16:46.366 --> 16:48.933 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and I really think it's about energy consumption. 16:48.933 --> 16:51.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% The energy intensity of our society. 16:51.166 --> 16:53.866 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% It's way too energy-intensive, our society. 16:53.866 --> 16:55.366 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - This is another paradox. 16:55.366 --> 16:58.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% The paradox is, there is no scenario of the future 16:58.700 --> 17:03.200 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% where the world does not use vastly more amounts of energy, 17:03.200 --> 17:04.133 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% but at the same time, 17:04.133 --> 17:08.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% we want the energy intensity of the economy 17:08.300 --> 17:10.433 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% to go down dramatically at the same time. 17:10.433 --> 17:12.033 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And so we're trying to do two things, 17:12.033 --> 17:14.033 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and I think that often gets confused in debates 17:14.033 --> 17:16.500 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% where people say, "Well, we should be using less energy." 17:16.500 --> 17:18.066 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And that's, you know, that's fine for those of us 17:18.066 --> 17:19.833 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% who are energy-rich, but when you realize 17:19.833 --> 17:23.500 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% there's billions of people who have almost none, 17:23.500 --> 17:25.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% the world as a whole is just gonna go up and up 17:25.633 --> 17:28.766 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% with air conditioning, with jets, and travel, and so. 17:28.766 --> 17:30.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So that's the world we have to prepare for. 17:31.300 --> 17:33.800 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - Look, speaking of electricity, we love energy, 17:33.800 --> 17:38.266 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% but electricity, but we hate pipelines, we hate power lines, 17:38.266 --> 17:41.433 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% but we need 'em, we need infrastructure. 17:41.433 --> 17:43.633 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Well, this is a paradox. 17:43.633 --> 17:45.166 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% Are we gonna have to learn 17:45.166 --> 17:47.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% how to embrace some infrastructure? 17:47.000 --> 17:49.266 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - If you want to have a centralized 17:49.266 --> 17:52.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% or relatively centralized energy system, 17:52.200 --> 17:56.500 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% we will need a lot more electricity networks for sure. 17:56.500 --> 17:59.566 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Investment in grid is the real bottleneck today 17:59.566 --> 18:03.800 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% to the deployment of solar and wind at a massive scale. 18:03.800 --> 18:06.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% There are very few manufacturers in the world 18:06.500 --> 18:10.300 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% that are able to produce those high voltage cables, 18:10.300 --> 18:14.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and then certainly is the issue "not in my backyard," 18:14.100 --> 18:16.333 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% which is a very important issue. 18:16.333 --> 18:17.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% [Scott] Which we now learned is BANANA. 18:17.866 --> 18:20.100 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% - Right. Exactly. 18:20.100 --> 18:21.500 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% [Scott] And it becomes banana. 18:21.500 --> 18:22.433 align:left position:37.5% line:89% size:52.5% - Exactly. 18:22.433 --> 18:23.400 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% - And pipelines too. 18:23.400 --> 18:25.500 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% I mean, we won't build new pipelines here. 18:25.500 --> 18:28.666 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - I mean, we see this in New England, in the United States. 18:28.666 --> 18:32.300 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% You know, New England north of Pennsylvania is close 18:32.300 --> 18:36.200 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% to some of the most accessible shale reserves in the world, 18:36.200 --> 18:39.700 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and, you know, during winter last year, 18:39.700 --> 18:42.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% people were burning oil for heat, 18:42.966 --> 18:44.233 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% which makes no sense. 18:44.233 --> 18:47.666 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% And that's partly, you know, what you call an own goal 18:47.666 --> 18:50.066 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% that, you know, by refusing to build 18:50.066 --> 18:52.366 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% the infrastructure necessary to move 18:52.366 --> 18:54.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% energy resources from one place to another. 18:54.266 --> 18:56.300 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% [Scott] The natural gas outta the Marcellus, for example. 18:56.300 --> 18:57.733 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - Exactly. Exactly. 18:57.733 --> 19:01.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% We wind up burning a much dirtier, more polluting fuel 19:01.433 --> 19:04.033 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% because people aren't gonna go cold. 19:04.033 --> 19:06.966 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% So this is an eternal problem, 19:06.966 --> 19:10.566 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and I do think it is a luxury of rich countries 19:10.566 --> 19:13.833 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% to have all the energy resources you want 19:13.833 --> 19:15.666 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% and then simply oppose everything, 19:15.666 --> 19:18.633 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% which basically means we lock ourselves into the status quo. 19:18.633 --> 19:22.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - So in this emissions and other things, 19:22.466 --> 19:25.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% what are the pros and cons of a carbon tax? 19:25.166 --> 19:29.600 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - A carbon tax is, at some point, is absolutely necessary 19:29.600 --> 19:31.900 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% if we're gonna achieve deep decarbonization. 19:31.900 --> 19:36.900 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% What a carbon price, carbon tax, a carbon fee can do 19:36.900 --> 19:39.333 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% is it can raise an enormous amount of resources 19:39.333 --> 19:42.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% to fund technological innovation and deployment, 19:42.866 --> 19:45.100 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% not just in the United States, but around the world. 19:45.100 --> 19:48.200 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% For example, a five dollar a ton carbon tax. 19:48.200 --> 19:51.833 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% That raises about $150 billion around the world, 19:51.833 --> 19:53.366 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% and the idea behind that 19:53.366 --> 19:56.700 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% is it doesn't matter where you start, but start low. 19:56.700 --> 19:58.466 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% And then use at least some, 19:58.466 --> 20:00.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% I mean, politicians will siphon off some of that money 20:00.466 --> 20:02.233 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% for whatever they wanna do. 20:02.233 --> 20:04.133 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% But as fossil fuels go down 20:04.133 --> 20:06.166 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% in their proportion of the global economy, 20:06.166 --> 20:07.833 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% it becomes politically easier 20:07.833 --> 20:09.433 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% to ratchet up that price. 20:09.433 --> 20:11.600 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% - We have a tax on nuclear waste, 20:11.600 --> 20:13.933 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% and it has all been siphoned off. 20:13.933 --> 20:15.466 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% We haven't done anything with it. 20:15.466 --> 20:19.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% The skeptics might say, oh, another new tax. 20:19.133 --> 20:21.766 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - The example I use is the U.S. Highway Trust fund. 20:21.766 --> 20:24.000 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% So every time you put gas in your car, 20:24.000 --> 20:27.633 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% you're paying a tax that goes into the Highway Trust Fund. 20:27.633 --> 20:30.066 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% When you're driving around, you see the orange cones, 20:30.066 --> 20:31.366 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% and that's employment. 20:31.366 --> 20:33.433 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% People are working, they're building infrastructure. 20:33.433 --> 20:35.566 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% Is some of the Highway Trust Fund 20:35.566 --> 20:36.866 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% siphoned off for other purposes? 20:36.866 --> 20:38.133 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% Of course it is, 20:38.133 --> 20:40.433 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% but that is the, I would say, 20:40.433 --> 20:42.800 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% the single most popular tax 20:42.800 --> 20:45.333 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% that the U.S. government has had in the last half century 20:45.333 --> 20:49.966 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% because they see the benefits of that tax every year. 20:49.966 --> 20:53.366 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And so if we create a virtuous cycle in energy 20:53.366 --> 20:55.033 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% where, you know, the promise isn't 20:55.033 --> 20:57.166 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% you're gonna see benefits in 2100, 20:57.166 --> 20:59.866 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% but no, we're gonna invest this in communities, 20:59.866 --> 21:01.400 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and we're gonna have research institutes, 21:01.400 --> 21:03.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% we're gonna actually have deployment projects 21:03.166 --> 21:06.166 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% for, you know, name your favorite technology 21:06.166 --> 21:08.266 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% in local places and create jobs, 21:08.266 --> 21:09.766 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% that's when I think it becomes more 21:09.766 --> 21:11.333 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% of a virtuous political circle. 21:11.333 --> 21:12.200 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - Thoughts on that? 21:12.200 --> 21:13.600 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - Yeah, I agree with Roger just said, 21:13.600 --> 21:15.233 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% but one of the issues around carbon taxes 21:15.233 --> 21:17.666 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% is that it has an asymmetrical impact 21:17.666 --> 21:20.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% on your industry and your cost of living 21:20.100 --> 21:22.300 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% if not applied everywhere. 21:22.300 --> 21:24.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And so what you have to do is we just, 21:24.166 --> 21:27.100 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% you have to start with different levels of carbon taxes 21:27.100 --> 21:28.800 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% depending on where 21:28.800 --> 21:31.833 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% your economic development level is, right? 21:31.833 --> 21:36.900 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% You can't put a $50 carbon tax in Sub-Saharan Africa. 21:36.900 --> 21:39.766 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% That doesn't make, you know, make sense at all. 21:39.766 --> 21:41.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% That's why you have to think about, 21:41.833 --> 21:43.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% it's not all about energy transition, 21:43.500 --> 21:45.233 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% it's about the just transition. 21:45.233 --> 21:46.766 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% I mean, I think the social aspect 21:46.766 --> 21:49.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and social acceptance of the energy transition 21:49.866 --> 21:54.133 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% has been under-evaluated, under-considered, 21:54.133 --> 21:56.100 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and I think now people just start realizing 21:56.100 --> 21:58.000 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% that if you don't have social acceptance 21:58.000 --> 21:59.233 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% of the energy transition, 21:59.233 --> 22:01.200 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% you won't have an energy transition. 22:01.200 --> 22:02.066 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% - Right. 22:02.066 --> 22:04.700 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Look, we've talked about lots of things 22:04.700 --> 22:07.800 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% that are paradoxical, if you will. 22:07.800 --> 22:09.000 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% Gimme some final thoughts. 22:09.000 --> 22:10.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Roger, if you don't mind, I'll just start with you. 22:10.633 --> 22:12.066 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - Yeah, you know, I think one thing 22:12.066 --> 22:13.600 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% this conversation brings out is we need 22:13.600 --> 22:17.600 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% a better policy approach to create a level playing field 22:17.600 --> 22:19.300 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% that's technology-blind. 22:19.300 --> 22:20.900 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Usually what people will do is say, 22:20.900 --> 22:22.366 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% "Well, we need more regulations 22:22.366 --> 22:25.300 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% for those technologies I don't like, 22:25.300 --> 22:28.166 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and we need more subsidies for those that I do." 22:28.166 --> 22:31.333 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% And then we get this mishmash of policies where, you know, 22:31.333 --> 22:33.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% coal is not treated the same as nuclear, 22:33.433 --> 22:36.633 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% and wind and solar are treated differently than natural gas, 22:36.633 --> 22:40.566 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% and, you know, in any plausible scenario of the future, 22:40.566 --> 22:43.000 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% we're gonna have a wide range of technologies 22:43.000 --> 22:45.466 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% that are deployed, including fossil fuels, 22:45.466 --> 22:50.066 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% but recognize that fighting against energy 22:50.066 --> 22:54.533 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% is pretty punitive for a lot of people around the world. 22:54.533 --> 22:55.800 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% So having a positive outlook 22:55.800 --> 22:58.400 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% on how do we provide the energy services that people demand, 22:58.400 --> 23:00.633 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% that people need, while at the same time, 23:00.633 --> 23:02.133 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% trying to balance these other goals, 23:02.133 --> 23:04.366 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% I think, you know, I am actually very optimistic 23:04.366 --> 23:07.400 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% about the future and how we'll be able to do that. 23:07.400 --> 23:09.300 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% Not least because there are billions of people 23:09.300 --> 23:11.533 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% around the world demanding that we do that. 23:11.533 --> 23:14.000 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And so if we can take some of the negativity 23:14.000 --> 23:16.366 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and politics out of energy policy debates, 23:16.366 --> 23:18.000 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% and instead focus on, all right, 23:18.000 --> 23:19.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% let's get our minds together and, you know, 23:19.966 --> 23:21.400 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% we're gonna make a lot of mistakes 23:21.400 --> 23:22.700 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and things aren't always gonna work out, 23:22.700 --> 23:24.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% but as long as we're moving incrementally, 23:24.266 --> 23:27.066 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% we might see outcomes like we see in feeding the world, 23:27.066 --> 23:29.000 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and improving public health around the world, 23:29.000 --> 23:32.333 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% which are tremendous success stories over the last century. 23:32.333 --> 23:34.133 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% So maybe at the end of this century, 23:34.133 --> 23:35.366 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% we look back and we say, you know, 23:35.366 --> 23:37.766 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% energy was the one of the 21st century 23:37.766 --> 23:40.100 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% that we really made a lot of progress on. 23:40.100 --> 23:42.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - Yeah, I like that optimistic thinking 23:42.300 --> 23:44.700 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% and technology blind. 23:44.700 --> 23:45.633 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% Final thoughts? 23:45.633 --> 23:47.166 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - Yeah, two things. 23:47.166 --> 23:50.033 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% I think policy making needs to be flexible. 23:50.033 --> 23:53.233 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% We are facing an uncertain future. 23:53.233 --> 23:55.966 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% So when you take a decision today, 23:55.966 --> 23:57.133 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% you don't know whether that decision 23:57.133 --> 23:59.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% will be as good as you think it's today, 23:59.733 --> 24:01.766 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow. 24:01.766 --> 24:05.166 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% So we need to embed flexibility in that policy. 24:05.166 --> 24:06.633 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% - Allow for learning 24:06.633 --> 24:07.966 align:left position:37.5% line:83% size:52.5% and change. - Allow for learning, 24:07.966 --> 24:10.566 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% especially because the future is very uncertain. 24:10.566 --> 24:12.733 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - Yes, that's a great point. - And diversification, 24:12.733 --> 24:19.233 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% you know, technology mixes complex options, create options, 24:19.233 --> 24:20.833 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% that's the way forward. 24:20.833 --> 24:23.066 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% The second point, and I have to do that, 24:23.066 --> 24:25.500 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% it's international cooperation. 24:25.500 --> 24:27.866 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% Climate change, energy transition is an 24:27.866 --> 24:29.266 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% international issue. 24:29.266 --> 24:32.666 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% It doesn't know any boundaries, 24:32.666 --> 24:34.066 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and we are in a situation where 24:34.066 --> 24:36.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% actually international cooperation is breaking down. 24:36.633 --> 24:37.800 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% - Yeah, just one atmosphere. 24:37.800 --> 24:39.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - Exactly, international cooperation 24:39.433 --> 24:42.933 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% has never been as important as it is today. 24:42.933 --> 24:43.900 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% - Interesting. 24:43.900 --> 24:44.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Look, I appreciate your thoughts, 24:44.966 --> 24:47.066 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and really enjoyed our visit today. 24:47.066 --> 24:48.200 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - Thank you. 24:48.200 --> 24:51.500 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - And your knowledge and expertise is terrific as always. 24:52.633 --> 24:54.133 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% Governments and markets need to solve 24:54.133 --> 24:56.133 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% many energy challenges, 24:56.133 --> 24:58.933 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% of which climate change is only one. 24:58.933 --> 25:02.666 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Sometimes, these challenges may be at odds with each other. 25:02.666 --> 25:04.933 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Such as the need to provide more energy 25:04.933 --> 25:07.766 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% while simultaneously emitting less. 25:07.766 --> 25:09.633 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% Solutions will be imperfect, 25:09.633 --> 25:11.933 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and may best work regionally. 25:11.933 --> 25:15.766 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% We should expect some failure and look for compromise. 25:15.766 --> 25:18.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% We'll need to accept that no energy is perfect, 25:18.533 --> 25:20.266 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% which may mean embracing solutions 25:20.266 --> 25:22.300 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% that are not universally popular, 25:22.300 --> 25:23.666 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% like nuclear, 25:23.666 --> 25:26.066 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% new mines for renewable energy minerals, 25:26.066 --> 25:27.366 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% new pipelines, 25:27.366 --> 25:29.100 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% and new power lines. 25:29.100 --> 25:32.166 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% Carbon reduction goals are most likely to succeed 25:32.166 --> 25:34.066 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% if they're technology agnostic, 25:34.066 --> 25:36.400 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% open to whatever does the job. 25:36.400 --> 25:38.666 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Recognizing internal conflicts, 25:38.666 --> 25:40.400 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% increasing transparency, 25:40.400 --> 25:42.400 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% and prioritizing education 25:42.400 --> 25:45.033 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% will help policy makers and the public 25:45.033 --> 25:48.700 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% minimize these energy and climate paradoxes. 25:52.766 --> 26:02.833 align:left position:47.5% line:5% size:42.5% ♪ 26:02.833 --> 26:11.833 align:left position:47.5% line:5% size:42.5% ♪ 26:11.833 --> 26:19.833 align:left position:47.5% line:5% size:42.5% ♪ 26:20.733 --> 26:22.066 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% [Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" 26:22.066 --> 26:25.200 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% was provided in part by 26:25.200 --> 26:27.700 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% The University of Texas at Austin, 26:27.700 --> 26:30.133 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% leading research in energy and the environment 26:30.133 --> 26:32.033 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% for a better tomorrow. 26:32.033 --> 26:35.566 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% What starts here changes the world.