WEBVTT 00:00.400 --> 00:02.133 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% [Scott] Coming up on "Energy Switch," 00:02.133 --> 00:04.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% we'll look at Indian energy and climate policies 00:04.900 --> 00:07.366 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% focusing first on electricity. 00:07.366 --> 00:09.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - Where India goes, goes climate, 00:09.633 --> 00:11.366 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% meaning that in the next decade to decades, 00:11.366 --> 00:14.133 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% they're going to require a whole lot of energy 00:14.133 --> 00:16.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% to basically move from a lower middle-income economy 00:16.433 --> 00:17.900 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% to a higher income economy. 00:17.900 --> 00:21.833 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - India's per capita is 1.89 tons per person. 00:21.833 --> 00:22.900 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% - Tons of CO2. 00:22.900 --> 00:25.266 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - CO2, and the U.S. is around seven. 00:25.266 --> 00:28.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% If India were to grow at the American rate, 00:28.166 --> 00:30.666 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% then it'll run through its oil 00:30.666 --> 00:32.266 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and coal reserves very, very quickly. 00:32.266 --> 00:35.400 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% So clearly there has to be other interventions made. 00:35.400 --> 00:37.233 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% [Scott] Next on "Energy Switch," 00:37.233 --> 00:40.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Energy and Climate Policies in India, Part 1. 00:42.533 --> 00:43.866 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% [Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" 00:43.866 --> 00:46.533 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% was provided in part by, 00:46.533 --> 00:49.533 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% The University of Texas at Austin, 00:49.533 --> 00:51.000 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% leading research in energy 00:51.000 --> 00:53.866 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and the environment for a better tomorrow. 00:53.866 --> 00:56.633 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% What starts here changes the world. 00:58.666 --> 00:59.900 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% [upbeat music] 00:59.900 --> 01:01.200 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - I'm Scott Tinker, 01:01.200 --> 01:03.200 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and I'm an energy scientist. 01:03.200 --> 01:04.900 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% I work in the field, 01:04.900 --> 01:06.033 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% lead research, 01:06.033 --> 01:07.400 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% speak around the world, 01:07.400 --> 01:08.833 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% write articles, 01:08.833 --> 01:11.433 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and make films about energy. 01:11.433 --> 01:14.133 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% This show brings together leading experts 01:14.133 --> 01:16.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% on vital topics in energy and climate. 01:17.433 --> 01:19.233 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% They may have different perspectives, 01:19.233 --> 01:22.266 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% but my goal is to learn, and illuminate, 01:22.266 --> 01:25.600 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and bring diverging views together towards solutions. 01:26.500 --> 01:29.100 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Welcome to the "Energy Switch." 01:30.400 --> 01:32.233 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% India recently passed China 01:32.233 --> 01:34.933 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% to become the world's most populated country 01:34.933 --> 01:37.266 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% but uses just a quarter of China's energy. 01:37.900 --> 01:40.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% India plans to develop much more energy 01:40.466 --> 01:43.066 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% to grow its manufacturing and other industries 01:43.066 --> 01:45.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and lift its people out of poverty. 01:45.466 --> 01:48.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% This includes expanding electricity generation 01:48.133 --> 01:50.866 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% using coal, just as China did. 01:50.866 --> 01:53.200 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% This could make it very difficult for the world 01:53.200 --> 01:55.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% to meet its carbon reduction targets. 01:55.733 --> 01:58.933 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% We'll talk about this and more with 01:58.933 --> 02:00.500 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% Padu Padmanaban. 02:00.500 --> 02:03.200 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% He's a visiting researcher at the King Abdullah Center 02:03.200 --> 02:04.633 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% in Saudi Arabia, 02:04.633 --> 02:06.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% formerly an energy efficiency advisor 02:06.733 --> 02:08.000 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% to the World Bank 02:08.000 --> 02:10.766 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and program director at USAID. 02:10.766 --> 02:13.000 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% Tom Moerenhout is a senior associate 02:13.000 --> 02:16.000 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% at the International Institute for Sustainable Development 02:16.000 --> 02:18.100 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and a professor at Columbia University's 02:18.100 --> 02:20.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% School of International and Public Affairs. 02:22.033 --> 02:23.633 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Next on "Energy Switch," 02:23.633 --> 02:25.633 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% we'll discuss electricity in India 02:25.633 --> 02:27.266 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and its global significance. 02:27.866 --> 02:31.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Why should the U.S. viewers care about energy 02:31.000 --> 02:32.766 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% and development in India? 02:32.766 --> 02:34.400 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And Tom, I'll just start with you. 02:34.400 --> 02:36.666 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - Where India goes, goes climate. 02:36.666 --> 02:38.133 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% It's one of the economies 02:38.133 --> 02:42.866 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% with the quickest energy demand growth rate in the world, 02:42.866 --> 02:44.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% meaning that in the next decade to decades, 02:44.833 --> 02:47.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% they're going to require a whole lot of energy 02:47.633 --> 02:49.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% to basically move from a lower middle-income economy 02:49.933 --> 02:51.633 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% to a higher income economy. 02:51.633 --> 02:52.933 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% And the big vital question is, 02:52.933 --> 02:54.800 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% what is going to power that energy? 02:54.800 --> 02:56.800 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Is that going to be fossil fuels or renewables? 02:56.800 --> 02:58.833 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% - Anything to add to that, Padu? 02:58.833 --> 03:00.300 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% - India's time has come. 03:00.300 --> 03:02.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% It's in the sweet spot. - Yep. 03:02.466 --> 03:04.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - It's the fifth-largest economy in the world. 03:04.200 --> 03:06.066 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% It's growing at six percent. 03:06.066 --> 03:07.266 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% In terms of energy, 03:07.266 --> 03:09.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% it's the third-largest consumer of energy 03:09.700 --> 03:13.500 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and the third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide. 03:13.500 --> 03:16.200 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% So in many ways, India is very important 03:16.200 --> 03:19.500 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% for climate change and for climate solutions. 03:19.500 --> 03:22.133 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% - Right, and interestingly, China, 03:22.133 --> 03:26.566 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% who has been the most populated country, is now second. 03:26.566 --> 03:28.966 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% China has grown per capita, not to where the U.S. is, 03:28.966 --> 03:31.100 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% but certainly higher than India, 03:31.100 --> 03:34.733 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and India needs to go there in order to grow its economy? 03:34.733 --> 03:37.066 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - Not necessarily. 03:37.066 --> 03:41.633 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% India's per capita is 1.89 tons per person. 03:41.633 --> 03:43.866 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% China is around 15. 03:43.866 --> 03:44.900 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% [Scott] Tons of CO2. 03:44.900 --> 03:47.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - CO2, and the U.S. is around seven. 03:47.633 --> 03:50.433 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And if India were to grow at the Chinese rate 03:50.433 --> 03:52.366 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% or the American rate, 03:52.366 --> 03:54.966 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% then it'll run through its oil 03:54.966 --> 03:56.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and coal reserves very, very quickly. 03:56.466 --> 03:58.166 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% So it's not going to happen. 03:58.166 --> 04:01.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% So clearly, there has to be other interventions made, 04:01.266 --> 04:03.366 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and other interventions are renewable energy 04:03.366 --> 04:04.733 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% and energy efficiency. 04:04.733 --> 04:08.233 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - Just real broadly, what's the energy mix in India today? 04:08.233 --> 04:10.066 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% - Coal is around 75%, 04:10.066 --> 04:14.266 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and that includes a bit of gas also, but-- 04:14.266 --> 04:15.600 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% - Okay, natural gas and coal. 04:15.600 --> 04:19.800 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - But about 12% is what is generated by renewables, 04:19.800 --> 04:22.333 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% which is solar and wind. 04:22.333 --> 04:23.433 align:left position:42.5% line:89% size:47.5% - Okay. 04:23.433 --> 04:25.966 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - And about three percent is generated by nuclear. 04:25.966 --> 04:27.000 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% [Scott] Okay. 04:27.000 --> 04:29.833 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% - And hydro has another eight to 10%. 04:29.833 --> 04:32.800 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - In many ways, folks have framed the future 04:32.800 --> 04:36.266 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% of electricity in India as almost a competition 04:36.266 --> 04:39.566 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% between coal and solar, 04:39.566 --> 04:43.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% quite a bit of coal in the mix today. 04:43.300 --> 04:45.000 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% Is that growing? 04:45.000 --> 04:50.366 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% - Coal has had a small revival 04:50.366 --> 04:53.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% in, you know, the last couple of years, why? 04:53.633 --> 04:54.933 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Because the energy demand growth, 04:54.933 --> 04:58.233 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% electricity demand growth is so strong. 04:58.233 --> 05:00.133 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% So when you talk about solar, 05:00.133 --> 05:02.233 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% last year was actually a record year. 05:02.233 --> 05:04.666 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% They added about a third more capacity of solar. 05:04.666 --> 05:06.933 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% That's crazy, those numbers are astronomical. 05:06.933 --> 05:08.333 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% I think they were second to China 05:08.333 --> 05:11.766 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% in terms of the percentage increase, 05:11.766 --> 05:14.533 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% but even that only covered less than half 05:14.533 --> 05:16.933 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% of the demand growth that they actually had. 05:16.933 --> 05:20.033 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% So the rest is mostly covered by coal, 05:20.033 --> 05:22.433 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% and that means existing power plants, 05:22.433 --> 05:24.966 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% you know, having them run more often, right? 05:24.966 --> 05:26.666 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So it's not that we're necessarily constructing 05:26.666 --> 05:30.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% a whole new fleet, but we definitely, you know- 05:30.633 --> 05:32.900 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - Right, very interesting. - But having said that, 05:32.900 --> 05:36.233 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% the number of coal plants being retired has accelerated. 05:36.233 --> 05:37.366 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - Absolutely. 05:37.366 --> 05:39.000 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - Largely because many of the coal-fired power plants 05:39.000 --> 05:41.533 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% are what are known as stranded assets. 05:41.533 --> 05:42.800 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And many of them are stranded assets 05:42.800 --> 05:45.833 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% because they're no longer profitable to run them. 05:45.833 --> 05:49.800 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% It costs something like 12 cents a unit 05:49.800 --> 05:51.900 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% for a coal-fired power plant as again, 05:51.900 --> 05:56.300 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% just 2.5 or 3 cents a unit for a solar power plant. 05:56.300 --> 05:57.866 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - A unit being like a kilowatt hour 05:57.866 --> 05:59.100 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% or something? - Kilowatt hour. 05:59.100 --> 06:00.333 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% Yeah, like a kilowatt hour. 06:00.333 --> 06:01.466 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% [Scott] Okay. 06:01.466 --> 06:05.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - So solar is about 1/4 to 1/5 the price of coal, 06:05.633 --> 06:08.700 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% but the question is the availability, 06:08.700 --> 06:09.866 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% as you rightly said. 06:09.866 --> 06:12.833 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Coal-fired power plants are base-loaded power plants, 06:12.833 --> 06:15.066 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and you just cannot remove a coal-fired power plant 06:15.066 --> 06:19.066 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% from the system without the grid being impacted. 06:19.566 --> 06:23.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - Yeah, I wanna make sure to represent this fairly. 06:23.633 --> 06:27.566 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% We're adding 10 times more solar and wind than coal, 06:27.566 --> 06:28.800 align:left position:40% line:83% size:50% correct? - Absolutely, yep. 06:28.800 --> 06:30.600 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - But when you get to the capacity factors 06:30.600 --> 06:32.233 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and what we end up with there, 06:32.233 --> 06:33.500 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% you're still generating a little more 06:33.500 --> 06:34.866 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% from coal than solar and wind. 06:34.866 --> 06:36.600 align:left position:42.5% line:83% size:47.5% - Sure. - They are, yep. 06:36.600 --> 06:38.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - But another angle to it which comes into the equation 06:38.933 --> 06:40.266 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% but doesn't show in the calculations 06:40.266 --> 06:43.400 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% as we would like to see it, and that is they want to reduce 06:43.400 --> 06:47.200 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% the energy intensity of the economy by 45%. 06:47.200 --> 06:51.400 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Then you're able to now see that they can 06:51.400 --> 06:54.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% meet the energy demands through solar as well as-- 06:54.600 --> 06:55.666 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% [Scott] Right, coal. 06:55.666 --> 06:57.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - So this is actually extremely important, right? 06:57.900 --> 07:01.400 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% That 45% reduction of your emissions intensity 07:01.400 --> 07:03.633 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% of your economy is key, 07:03.633 --> 07:04.933 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% because if that doesn't work out, 07:04.933 --> 07:07.033 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% that doesn't work. - That doesn't work out. 07:07.033 --> 07:10.500 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - Interesting, as we see energy demand projected 07:10.500 --> 07:12.766 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% to grow in India, what sectors is that happening? 07:12.766 --> 07:14.733 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - For energy, I mean, industry is a big one. 07:14.733 --> 07:15.600 align:left position:42.5% line:89% size:47.5% - Okay. 07:15.600 --> 07:16.866 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - And now, I mean, you were mentioning 07:16.866 --> 07:18.000 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% India is at the sweet spot. 07:18.000 --> 07:20.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% I also think for domestic manufacturing, you know, 07:20.433 --> 07:23.000 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% where China was sort of the manufacturing hub 07:23.000 --> 07:26.100 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% of the world before, a lot of that is now also 07:26.100 --> 07:28.233 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% going to start in India, 07:28.233 --> 07:30.066 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - Making the world's stuff. 07:30.066 --> 07:32.166 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - So the world's stuff, but also, you know, 07:32.166 --> 07:35.266 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% as the standard of living increases in India, 07:35.266 --> 07:36.900 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% you know, people use more appliances, 07:36.900 --> 07:38.800 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% so you have manufacturing there. 07:38.800 --> 07:41.333 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% You have huge urbanization rates. 07:41.333 --> 07:43.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% When you hear urbanization, you need to hear, 07:43.266 --> 07:45.833 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% I mean, everybody should hear cement, steel, right? 07:45.833 --> 07:48.233 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Demand for cement is gonna increase twofold 07:48.233 --> 07:50.766 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% in the next 10 years, steel demand threefold. 07:50.766 --> 07:51.766 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% - Right. 07:51.766 --> 07:55.566 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - Forty-five percent of the energy consumed 07:55.566 --> 07:57.966 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% is in industrial sector. 07:57.966 --> 08:02.233 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% There is some exports of steel and aluminum, 08:02.233 --> 08:04.466 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% but it isn't at the scale of China, 08:04.466 --> 08:06.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% nowhere close to the scale of China. 08:06.466 --> 08:10.533 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - Okay, gotcha, given this growth in population, 08:10.533 --> 08:13.966 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% manufacturing, industrial, internal, external, 08:13.966 --> 08:16.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% is there a net zero target in India? 08:16.000 --> 08:17.700 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% When is that set for? 08:17.700 --> 08:19.366 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% How do we meet that? 08:19.366 --> 08:20.633 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% - So the second question 08:20.633 --> 08:21.933 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% is more difficult than the first one. 08:21.933 --> 08:23.800 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% [Scott] [laughs] Let's go with the first one. 08:23.800 --> 08:26.200 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - India has a net zero target for 2070. 08:26.200 --> 08:28.800 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% By 2030, India wants half of its electricity 08:28.800 --> 08:30.766 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% to be from non-fossil sources. 08:30.766 --> 08:32.400 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% [Scott] Is that possible? 08:32.400 --> 08:34.666 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - It could be, but it is going to require 08:34.666 --> 08:36.100 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% a huge amount of investment, 08:36.100 --> 08:37.333 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% and it's going to require, 08:37.333 --> 08:39.533 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% of course, also, you know, 08:39.533 --> 08:41.433 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% shutting down certain coal facilities. 08:41.433 --> 08:43.066 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - Right, that's tough. - Which is a whole 08:43.066 --> 08:44.300 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% political economy problem 08:44.300 --> 08:45.800 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% of its own, yeah. - That's tough. 08:45.800 --> 08:47.500 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% So let's get into electricity. 08:47.500 --> 08:48.900 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% India is very populated. 08:48.900 --> 08:53.500 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% How many people there still lack reliable electricity? 08:53.500 --> 08:56.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - It could be as much as 1/4 of the population, 08:56.466 --> 09:00.333 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% which could be almost 400 million people, 09:00.333 --> 09:04.366 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% or 1/5 of the population or 1/6 of the population. 09:04.366 --> 09:06.300 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% But be that as it may, 09:06.300 --> 09:09.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% let us see what the Indian government has done 09:09.833 --> 09:12.166 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% to improve energy access. 09:12.166 --> 09:16.033 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% And one can say with a certain amount of confidence 09:16.033 --> 09:20.666 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% that the cities and towns receive power. 09:20.666 --> 09:23.566 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Maybe the reliability of supply 09:23.566 --> 09:27.033 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and the availability may be questionable in some areas, 09:27.033 --> 09:29.533 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% but by and large, they are connected to the grid. 09:29.533 --> 09:31.633 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Then there is the rural India, 09:31.633 --> 09:34.033 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% which has 600,000 villages. 09:34.033 --> 09:38.666 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% If a village has all its governmental buildings 09:38.666 --> 09:43.166 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% provided with electricity and 10% of the household 09:43.166 --> 09:45.033 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% is provided with electricity, 09:45.033 --> 09:47.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% then the village is deemed as electrified. 09:47.833 --> 09:50.500 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% All the villages have been connected to power, 09:50.500 --> 09:52.833 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% according to the government and their statistics. 09:52.833 --> 09:54.766 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% But how many households have been covered? 09:54.766 --> 09:56.366 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% That's questionable. 09:56.366 --> 10:00.500 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% But my last point on this is there are 20,000 hamlets, 10:00.500 --> 10:02.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% if I might say so, which for love or for money, 10:02.966 --> 10:04.766 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% you can't provide them with electricity 10:04.766 --> 10:06.266 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% because they're too remote. 10:06.266 --> 10:10.566 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Now, all those 20,000, according to the government data, 10:10.566 --> 10:12.333 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% have now received power, 10:12.333 --> 10:13.933 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% but not from the grid, 10:13.933 --> 10:16.433 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% but decentralized energy systems. 10:16.433 --> 10:19.766 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - Can people afford to buy electricity? 10:19.766 --> 10:21.333 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% - Many, yes, some no. 10:21.333 --> 10:22.433 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% Access is one thing. 10:22.433 --> 10:25.500 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Indeed, affordability is another, and I think that's, 10:25.500 --> 10:28.300 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% you know, you have tariff systems for that, right? 10:28.300 --> 10:30.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And you could, right now I think tariff systems 10:30.533 --> 10:34.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% are skewed, often have regressive subsidies as well, 10:34.133 --> 10:38.666 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% where higher-income families still receive subsidies. 10:38.666 --> 10:40.433 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% Eventually transferring that system to one 10:40.433 --> 10:42.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% where you do give very affordable electricity 10:42.633 --> 10:45.400 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% for, let's say, a first, certain consumption amount, 10:45.400 --> 10:47.366 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% 50 kilowatt hour or something like, 10:47.366 --> 10:49.000 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% that could make a lot of sense. 10:49.000 --> 10:51.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - Right, right, electric companies in India, 10:51.966 --> 10:53.733 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% how's their financial health? 10:53.733 --> 10:55.300 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% How are they doing? 10:55.300 --> 10:59.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - The generating companies are doing well, reasonably. 10:59.633 --> 11:01.833 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% They're turning a profit. 11:01.833 --> 11:04.933 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% The transmission companies, other than a few exceptions, 11:04.933 --> 11:09.100 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% either the state or the central level, are also doing well. 11:09.100 --> 11:12.000 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% The problem is with the distribution companies. 11:12.000 --> 11:15.800 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Many of them are running into huge losses. 11:15.800 --> 11:19.300 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% Sometimes they don't do their forecasting planning well. 11:19.300 --> 11:21.200 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Then they make ad hoc decisions 11:21.200 --> 11:24.833 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and end up buying power when it's very, very costly. 11:24.833 --> 11:27.900 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% So that has been one major issue. 11:27.900 --> 11:31.300 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% The other is transmission and distribution losses, 11:31.300 --> 11:34.000 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% which are very high in India. 11:34.000 --> 11:36.966 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% We used to do a calculation based on the 35% loss. 11:36.966 --> 11:38.166 align:left position:42.5% line:83% size:47.5% - Wow! - And 40% loss. 11:38.166 --> 11:41.700 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% But now it's come down to 22%. 11:41.700 --> 11:43.700 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - Why was it so, were there people 11:43.700 --> 11:45.600 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% tapping into them or people- 11:45.600 --> 11:47.700 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - That's exactly what it is. - Yes, exactly. 11:47.700 --> 11:48.600 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% [Scott] Okay. 11:48.600 --> 11:50.000 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - So you have technical losses, right? 11:50.000 --> 11:51.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% That's often because distribution companies 11:51.900 --> 11:53.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% that don't have enough money can't invest 11:53.733 --> 11:55.500 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% in upgrading your infrastructure. 11:55.500 --> 11:57.033 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And then you have commercial losses, 11:57.033 --> 12:00.366 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% which is basically electricity that is either not built 12:00.366 --> 12:02.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% or it's built, but the bills are not collected, 12:02.733 --> 12:04.133 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% the payments are not collected, 12:04.133 --> 12:05.233 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% and these are quite high as well. 12:05.233 --> 12:08.200 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And that second part is for a large part 12:08.200 --> 12:11.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% because of political reasons, you know. 12:11.166 --> 12:12.466 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% You allow people not to pay their bills 12:12.466 --> 12:13.700 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% or give them free electricity 12:13.700 --> 12:17.100 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% because they are an important group either voting for you 12:17.100 --> 12:20.033 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% or supporting your political endeavors. 12:20.033 --> 12:21.300 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% India is not alone in this. 12:21.300 --> 12:22.566 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% I don't wanna say-- 12:22.566 --> 12:24.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% [Scott] That never happens here. [laughs] 12:24.000 --> 12:26.500 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% [Tom] That is a problem across the world. 12:26.500 --> 12:29.666 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - There was a time when the Indian electricity sector 12:29.666 --> 12:32.200 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% was seen as a political patronage machine. 12:32.200 --> 12:37.300 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% Now it's far less because with the reforms in the sector, 12:37.300 --> 12:41.766 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% we have independent regulators in each of the states. 12:41.766 --> 12:44.433 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And that seems to have insulated it 12:44.433 --> 12:48.133 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% from political pressure, but not entirely, 12:48.133 --> 12:50.800 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% because at the time of elections, for instance, 12:50.800 --> 12:55.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% it's a fairly populous thing to offer free power. 12:55.633 --> 12:56.933 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - In some states, not all, 12:56.933 --> 12:59.600 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% but some of these so-called independent 12:59.600 --> 13:02.033 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% regulatory agencies are not particularly 13:02.033 --> 13:03.100 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% independent. - Independent. 13:03.100 --> 13:04.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - They are very much under political pressure 13:04.866 --> 13:06.733 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% to keep the tariff low. 13:06.733 --> 13:08.933 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% And then states throw in subsidies. 13:08.933 --> 13:11.633 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% They don't always do this on time, which is a big problem 13:11.633 --> 13:14.500 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% for distribution companies for their financial viability. 13:14.500 --> 13:17.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% And right now subsidies in total, it's 18 billion 13:17.600 --> 13:19.566 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% to distribution companies per year. 13:19.566 --> 13:21.200 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% - It is $18 billion. 13:21.200 --> 13:24.800 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% It's 25% of what India spends on health 13:24.800 --> 13:28.766 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and almost 40% of what it spends on education. 13:28.766 --> 13:30.600 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% [Scott] Wow, that's not trivial. 13:30.600 --> 13:31.800 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% [Tom] No. 13:31.800 --> 13:34.066 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - The infrastructure itself, transmission infrastructure 13:34.066 --> 13:37.866 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% to go from the generation to the distribution, how's that? 13:37.866 --> 13:39.466 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% Is that in pretty good shape? 13:39.466 --> 13:42.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - Well, it is in pretty good shape. 13:42.466 --> 13:45.000 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% India was not a unified grid. 13:45.000 --> 13:46.600 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Now it is a unified grid. 13:46.600 --> 13:48.500 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - Okay, expanding it in the future, 13:48.500 --> 13:50.200 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% what are the projections for that? 13:50.200 --> 13:52.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - I don't know the amount of the investment needed, 13:52.866 --> 13:54.533 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% but that will be significant. 13:54.533 --> 13:55.933 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% It's not different from anywhere else 13:55.933 --> 13:57.533 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% in the fact that if you want more renewables, 13:57.533 --> 14:00.266 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% you're going to need much stronger transmission. 14:00.266 --> 14:01.366 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - Right, yes. 14:01.366 --> 14:02.600 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% - So that investment will be- 14:02.600 --> 14:04.200 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - And you can't put those investments 14:04.200 --> 14:07.900 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% on the investor of the renewable project, so far, 14:07.900 --> 14:10.400 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% otherwise your tariffs will be very, very high. 14:10.400 --> 14:12.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% And to a large extent, that's one of the reasons 14:12.633 --> 14:17.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% why solar power is 2.7 cents per unit 14:17.600 --> 14:22.500 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% is because the transmission infrastructure 14:22.500 --> 14:24.866 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% is built by the government. 14:24.866 --> 14:27.966 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% Land is given at a subsidized rate, 14:27.966 --> 14:30.566 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and a lot of other infrastructure 14:30.566 --> 14:32.266 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% facilities are provided 14:32.266 --> 14:34.733 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and all that the developer has to do 14:34.733 --> 14:37.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% is provide the panels, do a bit of electronics, 14:37.466 --> 14:39.800 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and it becomes a plug-and-play system. 14:39.800 --> 14:42.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - That also means that you see, what was it, 14:42.600 --> 14:45.400 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% 28% added capacity in 2022. 14:45.400 --> 14:47.333 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% That's where that comes from, right? 14:47.333 --> 14:49.100 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So if you subsidize it, then at one point, 14:49.100 --> 14:52.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% you will get into trouble with both your market 14:52.100 --> 14:54.266 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and to a certain extent with your grid capacity 14:54.266 --> 14:56.800 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% to integrate that. 14:56.800 --> 14:59.900 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And that should probably require more preparation. 14:59.900 --> 15:01.033 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% - Right. 15:01.033 --> 15:03.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - I mean, when China did this big sort of growth spurt 15:03.200 --> 15:04.766 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% in renewables, you had a similar thing. 15:04.766 --> 15:07.600 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% At one point, there was I think 20, 25% of capacity 15:07.600 --> 15:09.100 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% that was standing idle. 15:09.100 --> 15:11.233 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% That was more because it wasn't getting connected. 15:11.233 --> 15:13.333 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% But so a lot of people are asking also that question, 15:13.333 --> 15:17.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% you know, shouldn't you be thinking about that beforehand? 15:17.266 --> 15:18.766 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Sometimes when you install a lot of things 15:18.766 --> 15:20.133 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and your problem gets bigger, 15:20.133 --> 15:23.733 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% that's when it rises up the ranks of priority items or-- 15:23.733 --> 15:26.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - There are a lot of unintended consequences. 15:26.100 --> 15:28.300 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - There is, yes. - There we go, yeah, yeah. 15:28.300 --> 15:33.800 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% - Yeah, China is an interesting model for India to examine. 15:33.800 --> 15:35.366 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% Their solar is incredible. 15:35.366 --> 15:36.433 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Their wind's incredible. 15:36.433 --> 15:38.500 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% But China's still building more than one coal plant 15:38.500 --> 15:40.033 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% every week, too, though. 15:40.033 --> 15:41.433 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And that's why I think a lot of people 15:41.433 --> 15:45.400 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% worry about these stated goals 15:45.400 --> 15:49.433 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% and how they come in conflict with energy security. 15:49.433 --> 15:54.033 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So when pressed, would Mr. Modi choose electricity 15:54.033 --> 15:55.866 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% and energy security 15:55.866 --> 15:57.366 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% or climate security? 15:57.366 --> 15:59.833 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - Thus far, the government has been playing 15:59.833 --> 16:01.833 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% both sides of the equation, 16:01.833 --> 16:04.900 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% trying to have a policy on energy 16:04.900 --> 16:08.233 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% which is climate compatible. 16:08.233 --> 16:09.966 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Can't say politically what they would do 16:09.966 --> 16:11.833 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% if the push comes to shove 16:11.833 --> 16:14.066 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and they're forced to take a decision, 16:14.066 --> 16:16.300 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and then probably the politician will do 16:16.300 --> 16:18.933 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% whatever is necessary for his election 16:18.933 --> 16:20.333 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% in the next elections. 16:20.333 --> 16:21.600 align:left position:40% line:83% size:50% - Right. - And I mean, 16:21.600 --> 16:23.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% that's a difficult part as well, right? 16:23.000 --> 16:26.100 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% India imports a quarter of its coal, 16:26.100 --> 16:28.966 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% means it produces about 75% domestically. 16:28.966 --> 16:30.533 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% That's a resource it has. 16:30.533 --> 16:31.933 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% - Absolutely. - It was it very similar 16:31.933 --> 16:33.900 align:left position:37.5% line:83% size:52.5% for China. - Absolutely, and here. 16:33.900 --> 16:36.300 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% - And so it's difficult to say, "Hey, don't grow on the back 16:36.300 --> 16:38.600 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% of what you actually have at home." 16:38.600 --> 16:41.000 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% I think beyond that, though, it's quite interesting 16:41.000 --> 16:42.400 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% because India also has goals 16:42.400 --> 16:45.566 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% for energy independence by 2045 focusing on renewables. 16:45.566 --> 16:47.400 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% You go renewables because quite frankly, 16:47.400 --> 16:50.766 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% you know, it's also in your interest, right? 16:50.766 --> 16:53.833 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% When you look at oil imports for India, 16:53.833 --> 16:55.200 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% costs a ton of money, 16:55.200 --> 16:57.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% like 120 billion in 2022 alone, right? 16:57.966 --> 17:00.366 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% So if you can reduce that with electric mobility 17:00.366 --> 17:02.533 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% for example, you know, you're actually gaining 17:02.533 --> 17:04.700 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% energy security advantages as well. 17:04.700 --> 17:07.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - Which countries in the world are you dependent on 17:07.100 --> 17:08.866 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% to meet these solar and wind targets? 17:08.866 --> 17:12.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Where does all the stuff come from? 17:12.300 --> 17:14.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - A lot comes from China. - A lot comes. 17:14.100 --> 17:15.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - It is for sure a security question, 17:15.966 --> 17:19.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and that, of course, is the appeal of coal within India 17:19.266 --> 17:22.000 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% is look, we have it here domestically, right? 17:22.000 --> 17:24.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Now, when you look at renewable energy supply chains, 17:24.266 --> 17:25.633 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% let's not pretend that India 17:25.633 --> 17:27.033 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% is the only one who relies on China. 17:27.033 --> 17:28.200 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - No, pretty much everybody does. 17:28.200 --> 17:29.900 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% [Tom] That's pretty much the whole world- 17:29.900 --> 17:31.133 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% [Scott] Yeah, China was brilliant that way. 17:31.133 --> 17:33.100 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% - is relying on China. 17:33.100 --> 17:36.366 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - Just to add to this, India became an importer 17:36.366 --> 17:41.066 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% of coal only in 2005, and the reason is Indian coal 17:41.066 --> 17:43.766 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% is very, very difficult to burn. 17:43.766 --> 17:46.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% It has a calorific value which is probably 50% 17:46.933 --> 17:49.433 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% of the calorific value of a U.S. coal. 17:49.433 --> 17:50.866 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% Very few countries would be able 17:50.866 --> 17:52.666 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% to handle that kind of coal. 17:52.666 --> 17:56.100 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So now they use blended coal, imported coal, 17:56.100 --> 17:58.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and thus it improves the availability of the power plant. 17:58.700 --> 18:00.200 align:left position:40% line:83% size:50% - Right. - And another thing 18:00.200 --> 18:02.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% is that the government does not seem 18:02.700 --> 18:05.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% to have come out with a policy document 18:05.266 --> 18:08.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% or pronouncements saying in very clear terms 18:08.866 --> 18:12.500 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% that this is going to be a transition away from coal. 18:12.500 --> 18:14.133 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% It has always been ambiguous. 18:14.133 --> 18:15.300 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% - Right. 18:15.300 --> 18:19.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - One of the reasons could be that reducing coal mining 18:19.633 --> 18:22.500 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% has enormous socioeconomic issues. 18:22.500 --> 18:25.866 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% When it comes to a coal mine, in India, 18:25.866 --> 18:31.366 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% the entire town, everyone is dependent on the coal mine. 18:31.366 --> 18:32.333 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% [Scott] It goes away. 18:32.333 --> 18:33.500 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% [Padu] So if that goes away, 18:33.500 --> 18:35.366 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% then everyone is affected. - Absolutely. 18:35.366 --> 18:37.600 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - And that's where official statistics are often wrong. 18:37.600 --> 18:39.433 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Official statistics, they often talk about, 18:39.433 --> 18:41.466 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% you know, around half a million. 18:41.466 --> 18:43.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% To begin with, it's more like two million 18:43.300 --> 18:45.400 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% when you look at informal workers as well. 18:45.400 --> 18:48.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - So they don't want to talk about a program 18:48.266 --> 18:50.866 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% which will transit away from coal 18:50.866 --> 18:54.333 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and create all these political upheavals 18:54.333 --> 18:55.866 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% because they'll be answerable 18:55.866 --> 18:57.566 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% to the electorate at some time, 18:57.566 --> 18:59.966 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% so they want to be quiet about it. 18:59.966 --> 19:03.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And tomorrow a new coal mine may come up, 19:03.300 --> 19:05.633 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% in which case they'll try to take credit for it. [laughs] 19:05.633 --> 19:07.766 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% So they want to leave that option. 19:07.766 --> 19:10.033 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% [Scott] Well, politicians are politicians. 19:10.033 --> 19:11.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% [Padu] Politicians are politicians. 19:11.500 --> 19:13.400 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% - Can coal communities adapt? 19:13.400 --> 19:14.766 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% How does that happen? 19:14.766 --> 19:16.533 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% - The issue of just transition now 19:16.533 --> 19:19.300 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% is getting to be very important and is being taken up 19:19.300 --> 19:22.600 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% by the government very, very seriously, 19:22.600 --> 19:25.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% because coal mines are being shut down, 19:25.433 --> 19:28.333 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% and people are being unemployed, 19:28.333 --> 19:31.400 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and one has to re-skill them, reeducate them, 19:31.400 --> 19:35.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% get them to work in other sectors of industry. 19:35.200 --> 19:37.566 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% It's still work in progress, 19:37.566 --> 19:42.633 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% but it's a very, very important aspect of the planning. 19:43.666 --> 19:46.066 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - Could India's coal fleet, 19:46.066 --> 19:49.033 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% future coal fleet be used more efficiently? 19:49.033 --> 19:50.966 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% - Many of the newer power plants 19:50.966 --> 19:55.100 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% in the last seven to eight years have been ultra-critical 19:55.100 --> 19:56.866 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% or supercritical power plants, 19:56.866 --> 19:58.366 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% which have a higher efficiency 19:58.366 --> 20:02.100 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% than the existing subcritical power plants. 20:02.100 --> 20:06.133 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% So there's been a fair amount of development in that area. 20:06.133 --> 20:07.933 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - I think that's important, and you see, 20:07.933 --> 20:10.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% you know, getting to supercritical infrastructure, 20:10.900 --> 20:13.166 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% there's biomass coal firing, 20:13.166 --> 20:14.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and then when you go down that list, 20:14.466 --> 20:16.933 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% you also obviously have CCUS, right? 20:16.933 --> 20:18.833 align:left position:42.5% line:83% size:47.5% - Sure. - Like, these things help, 20:18.833 --> 20:21.100 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% but let's not pretend that they- 20:21.100 --> 20:22.100 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - They're not the solution. 20:22.100 --> 20:23.400 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - That they're going to be the solution 20:23.400 --> 20:25.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% to global climate change- - They're not the solution. 20:25.200 --> 20:26.833 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - Or India's climate problem. - Absolutely, yeah. 20:26.833 --> 20:28.600 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% [Tom] Clean coal is, how do you call it, 20:28.600 --> 20:30.233 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% like when you have an internal contradiction 20:30.233 --> 20:32.066 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% between two words? - Oxymoron. [laughs] 20:32.066 --> 20:33.566 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% - There we go. 20:33.566 --> 20:36.966 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - It seems like there's a uranium elephant 20:36.966 --> 20:38.700 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% in the room here to me. 20:38.700 --> 20:39.833 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% - Let's talk about it. 20:39.833 --> 20:43.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - What's the future for nuclear generation in India? 20:43.466 --> 20:44.800 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% - First of all, there are, I think, 20:44.800 --> 20:46.933 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% about six reactors under construction. 20:46.933 --> 20:48.066 align:left position:42.5% line:83% size:47.5% - Six. - So it is happening. 20:48.066 --> 20:48.966 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% - That's a start. 20:48.966 --> 20:50.333 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - For me, there's like a theoretical side 20:50.333 --> 20:51.400 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% and a practical side. 20:51.400 --> 20:53.966 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Theoretical side is nuclear is low carbon, right? 20:53.966 --> 20:56.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% It gives you a very nice base load. 20:56.633 --> 20:58.800 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% The practical side is, 20:58.800 --> 21:00.866 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% it depends whether you can do it 21:00.866 --> 21:03.066 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% at a cost that is reasonable. 21:03.066 --> 21:04.033 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% When you look at China, 21:04.033 --> 21:05.400 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% that is what they have been able to do. 21:05.400 --> 21:07.433 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% They indigenize nuclear energy technology, 21:07.433 --> 21:09.133 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and then they've been able to, you know, 21:09.133 --> 21:10.866 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% more or less copy/paste it, 21:10.866 --> 21:13.400 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% you know, in an economically sound way. 21:13.400 --> 21:15.366 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% The type of power plants or nuclear power plants 21:15.366 --> 21:17.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% that we wanna go for, the big ones, 21:17.266 --> 21:19.200 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% in the United States and in Europe 21:19.200 --> 21:22.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% have always run over cost and over time. 21:22.533 --> 21:24.166 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% There are plants in Europe 21:24.166 --> 21:26.200 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% which have been under construction for 21:26.200 --> 21:27.666 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% close to two decades, 21:27.666 --> 21:30.000 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% you know, next-generation power plants. 21:30.000 --> 21:32.166 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And when you look at their levelized cost of electricity- 21:32.166 --> 21:34.833 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - Cost at the plant gate, not to the consumer, 21:34.833 --> 21:35.800 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% but at the plant gate. 21:35.800 --> 21:37.133 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% - Taking into account everything, 21:37.133 --> 21:39.800 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% construction, capacity factor, subsidies, 21:39.800 --> 21:41.133 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% you know, across the lifetime, 21:41.133 --> 21:44.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% if we all put that into one metric, 21:44.500 --> 21:46.433 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% nuclear energy in the West, 21:46.433 --> 21:48.433 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% of new nuclear power plants, right, 21:48.433 --> 21:51.933 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% not existing ones, but new ones, super high, 21:51.933 --> 21:55.033 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% which doesn't mean that it couldn't be used in India. 21:55.033 --> 21:57.333 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% But let's not put that nuclear elephant there 21:57.333 --> 21:59.533 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% as like, you know, this is the panacea, 21:59.533 --> 22:01.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% this is the solution to everything. 22:01.266 --> 22:04.766 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - But the reality is that in terms of nuclear, 22:04.766 --> 22:07.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% India has just got 6,800 megawatts. 22:07.600 --> 22:09.100 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - Yeah, very small. 22:09.100 --> 22:10.500 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - And when you have a nuclear power plant, 22:10.500 --> 22:13.100 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% it runs at a high load factor, no doubt. 22:13.100 --> 22:15.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% But to get to that point requires enormous 22:15.600 --> 22:16.633 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% amount of effort 22:16.633 --> 22:18.933 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% which I don't think the Indian biosector 22:18.933 --> 22:21.000 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% is ready to embrace. 22:21.000 --> 22:23.600 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% The NGO community in India is very, very strong. 22:23.600 --> 22:24.966 align:left position:40% line:83% size:50% - It is. - It is very, very vocal, 22:24.966 --> 22:26.133 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% very, very vocal. - Oh, interesting. 22:26.133 --> 22:29.100 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - They're not going to allow a nuclear power plant 22:29.100 --> 22:31.066 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% in one's backyard that easily. 22:31.066 --> 22:33.133 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% It is even worse-- - And why is that? 22:33.133 --> 22:35.333 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - The entire issue of waste disposal 22:35.333 --> 22:37.500 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% and safety and all of that. 22:37.500 --> 22:40.800 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Another reason on nuclear is that information 22:40.800 --> 22:43.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and data on nuclear is not readily available 22:43.466 --> 22:46.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% as it is available for other sources of energy, 22:46.133 --> 22:48.166 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% although it's far better than what it used to be. 22:48.166 --> 22:50.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Nonetheless, there isn't sufficient discussion 22:50.633 --> 22:52.900 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and debate in the country on nuclear 22:52.900 --> 22:56.333 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and the role that nuclear could play. 22:56.333 --> 23:01.433 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - You've done a nice job of talking about India policy. 23:01.433 --> 23:03.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Roll in your own thinking a little bit here. 23:03.866 --> 23:07.700 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% If you had to bet your own money 23:07.700 --> 23:10.600 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% on where India would be in 2030 and 2050 23:10.600 --> 23:15.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% with a coal, solar, let's say, nuclear mix, 23:15.633 --> 23:17.666 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% give me just a summary thought on that. 23:17.666 --> 23:20.900 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - I believe it's possible for them to reach their targets 23:20.900 --> 23:24.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% around the time that they've announced them. 23:24.900 --> 23:28.800 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% It's going to require a whole lot more funding 23:28.800 --> 23:31.466 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% than is being put in right now. 23:31.466 --> 23:34.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% So I look at your question through that lens, 23:34.633 --> 23:36.533 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and the reality is that if we wanna reach 23:36.533 --> 23:39.700 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% those 2030, 2040, 2050 goals, 23:39.700 --> 23:43.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% that we have about 160 to 200 billion 23:43.733 --> 23:46.266 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% per year financing gap, 23:46.266 --> 23:48.200 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and so is it possible technically? 23:48.200 --> 23:51.000 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Yes, is it possible because of the available skills 23:51.000 --> 23:53.366 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and willingness and realization of the fact 23:53.366 --> 23:54.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% that climate change is a problem? 23:54.733 --> 23:56.100 align:left position:45% line:89% size:45% 100%. 23:56.100 --> 23:59.233 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Do you have the money to do it in that timeframe? 23:59.233 --> 24:01.466 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% That's where-- - Right, gotcha. 24:01.466 --> 24:02.933 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% Same question, Padu. 24:02.933 --> 24:04.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - Financing, I think, is critical. 24:04.900 --> 24:06.700 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% And just to add to the numbers, 24:06.700 --> 24:11.366 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% estimates are that 1.5 to 2% of the GDP of the country 24:11.366 --> 24:14.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% would have to be spent as an additionality 24:14.600 --> 24:18.700 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% to what is already being spent in the electricity sector. 24:18.700 --> 24:22.066 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% That translates itself into a requirement 24:22.066 --> 24:26.200 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% of about 120 to $150 billion 24:26.200 --> 24:29.033 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% every year until 2040 24:29.033 --> 24:32.533 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% when essentially much of the investments would've happened. 24:32.533 --> 24:34.933 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% And cumulatively, it'll come to something like 24:34.933 --> 24:38.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% four trillion dollars is what India would require. 24:38.200 --> 24:40.066 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - Appreciate the summaries. 24:40.066 --> 24:42.700 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Been a great initial session here. 24:42.700 --> 24:44.400 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - Thank you. 24:45.000 --> 24:48.233 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% [Scott] India is already the third-largest energy consumer 24:48.233 --> 24:50.533 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and carbon emitter in the world 24:50.533 --> 24:53.733 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% but has the fastest-growing energy demand. 24:53.733 --> 24:57.333 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Coal currently makes about 75% of their electricity 24:57.333 --> 25:00.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% with the other 25% mostly solar, hydro, 25:00.833 --> 25:03.300 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and other non-carbon sources. 25:03.300 --> 25:06.566 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% The coal industry employs nearly two million Indians, 25:06.566 --> 25:09.966 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% making coal politically and economically important. 25:09.966 --> 25:13.033 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Yet, some older coal plants are retiring 25:13.033 --> 25:17.133 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% since they can't compete with new highly subsidized solar. 25:17.133 --> 25:19.966 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% India values solar as a domestic resource 25:19.966 --> 25:21.966 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% that requires no imported fuel, 25:21.966 --> 25:23.733 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% reduces local air pollution, 25:23.733 --> 25:25.766 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and helps meet climate targets. 25:25.766 --> 25:29.466 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% But it would take four trillion dollars of additional investment 25:29.466 --> 25:33.733 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% from now to 2040 to dramatically increase energy efficiency, 25:33.733 --> 25:37.233 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% expand the grid, and improve electricity distribution, 25:37.233 --> 25:38.700 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% and build out solar 25:38.700 --> 25:40.500 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and other non-carbon resources 25:40.500 --> 25:43.266 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% to transform the electricity system in India. 25:43.266 --> 25:46.566 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And it would likely make electricity more expensive. 25:46.566 --> 25:48.133 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Whatever India's choices, 25:48.133 --> 25:51.900 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% their future energy mix will impact the world's climate. 25:53.166 --> 26:01.900 align:left position:47.5% line:5% size:42.5% ♪ ♪ 26:01.900 --> 26:11.833 align:left position:47.5% line:5% size:42.5% ♪ ♪ 26:11.833 --> 26:19.833 align:left position:47.5% line:5% size:42.5% ♪ ♪ 26:20.733 --> 26:22.066 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% [Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" 26:22.066 --> 26:25.200 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% was provided in part by 26:25.200 --> 26:27.700 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% The University of Texas at Austin, 26:27.700 --> 26:30.133 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% leading research in energy and the environment 26:30.133 --> 26:32.033 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% for a better tomorrow. 26:32.033 --> 26:35.566 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% What starts here changes the world.