WEBVTT 00:01.600 --> 00:04.633 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: Also today, President Trump# signed orders to impose 25 percent tariffs## 00:04.633 --> 00:10.733 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% on all steel and aluminum imports to the U.S.# Two key American allies, Canada and Mexico,## 00:10.733 --> 00:15.200 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% would be significantly impacted. But so# would American businesses and consumers. 00:15.200 --> 00:20.266 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% For more, I'm joined by Greg Ip, chief economics# commentator at The Wall Street Journal. 00:20.266 --> 00:21.833 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Greg, welcome back. It's good to see you. 00:21.833 --> 00:26.966 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% Let's start with this announcement then of# 25 percent steel and aluminum .. 00:26.966 --> 00:33.400 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% days ago, you wrote in your column that the# early verdict on tariffs was bad economics,## 00:33.400 --> 00:40.300 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% better politics. Does this latest# announcement here fit in with that pattern? 00:40.300 --> 00:40.833 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% GREG IP, The Wall Street Journal: Well,## 00:40.833 --> 00:43.766 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% only time will tel.. 00:43.766 --> 00:50.600 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% We know from Trump's first term that, when he# imposed similar tariffs on steel and aluminum,## 00:50.600 --> 00:55.200 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% the result was to create some additional# domestic production and jobs in the steel## 00:55.200 --> 01:00.166 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% and aluminum industries, but to# significantly raise costs and cause## 01:00.166 --> 01:05.166 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% a lot of harm in the industries# that consume steel and aluminum. 01:05.166 --> 01:08.966 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% And that harm was compounded when# our trading partners retaliated## 01:08.966 --> 01:14.000 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% against those tariffs. And so the net# effect was an economic negative. Now,## 01:14.000 --> 01:19.333 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% fast-forward to today. When President Trump a# week earlier said that he was going to impose## 01:19.333 --> 01:25.433 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, we saw# a very negative reaction in the stock market. 01:25.433 --> 01:27.966 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% That too suggests that investors expect that## 01:27.966 --> 01:31.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the net effect on the economy of# these tariffs will be negative. 01:31.733 --> 01:35.133 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: We should point out too that# there's an intention here to target China## 01:35.133 --> 01:39.866 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% in some way. China is not one of the top# steel or aluminum suppliers to the U.S. 01:39.866 --> 01:43.733 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% And there are already existing tariffs on# Chinese steel and aluminum even from the## 01:43.733 --> 01:51.633 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% previous administration. So how would this latest# potential move here, how could that impact China? 01:51.633 --> 01:55.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% GREG IP: So I think that the --# certainly, Trump's first administration,## 01:55.400 --> 02:00.933 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% and to some extent the Biden administration, made# a distinction between China and everybody else. 02:00.933 --> 02:04.200 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% There was a recognition that China was# a strategic competitor to the United## 02:04.200 --> 02:09.833 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% States and that it did not adhere to the# rules of global trade as other countries## 02:09.833 --> 02:14.166 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% understand it. And so there was a better# case for imposing high tariffs on China,## 02:14.166 --> 02:18.166 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% notwithstanding the harm that that would# cause to those who import things from China. 02:18.166 --> 02:21.433 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% In this case, the president is not# really making that distinction. He's## 02:21.433 --> 02:25.266 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% saying tariffs on everybody, whether or# not you're an ally. And that's because## 02:25.266 --> 02:29.666 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% the motive here is to try and protect# the U.S. steel and aluminum industries. 02:29.666 --> 02:35.366 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% Now, to be sure, China, even though it's not the# specific -- it's not being singled out in these## 02:35.366 --> 02:40.333 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% tariffs, it's sort of there in the background,# because one of the concerns that folks have had## 02:40.333 --> 02:46.633 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% about tariffs and about China in the past is that,# even when there are tariffs on Chinese steel,## 02:46.633 --> 02:51.266 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% it comes in through third countries, where# China sells steel cheaply to one country. 02:51.266 --> 02:55.600 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% That country's industry suffers, and it# sells its steel to the United States. So## 02:55.600 --> 02:59.266 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% there might be in a roundabout way an# effort to get at China. But that is,## 02:59.266 --> 03:03.233 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% I think, kind of secondary. What Trump is# saying here is, he is willing to impose very## 03:03.233 --> 03:07.666 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% high tariffs indefinitely to protect# industries that are important to him. 03:07.666 --> 03:12.033 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: Is it clear to you, though, what the# actual goal is here for the Trump administration,## 03:12.033 --> 03:19.100 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% especially when it comes to Canada and Mexico,# the other tariffs that he's postponed as well? 03:19.100 --> 03:23.600 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% GREG IP: Well, Trump's adviser has put# forth many different justifications for## 03:23.600 --> 03:26.366 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% tariffs. They will tell you, for# example, that there's a difference## 03:26.366 --> 03:30.933 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% between tariffs that are intended# for negotiation or punitive tariffs. 03:30.933 --> 03:34.866 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% That's the tariffs that were threatened# against Mexico and Canada as a way to get## 03:34.866 --> 03:40.133 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% them to act on American concerns about the inflow# of illegal migrants and fentanyl. And then there's## 03:40.133 --> 03:45.033 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% a different bucket, which they call structural# tariffs or strategic tariffs. And these are kind## 03:45.033 --> 03:49.633 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% of indefinite. And they're meant to inculcate# long-term economic and political changes,## 03:49.633 --> 03:55.433 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% such as strengthening the U.S. manufacturing base# or raising revenue that can help pay for tax cuts. 03:55.433 --> 03:59.166 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% So the tariffs that were punished --# threatened against Mexico and Canada a## 03:59.166 --> 04:03.600 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% week ago fall into that first bucket. They were# not, at least if you listen to the president,## 04:03.600 --> 04:07.533 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% intended to be there forever, just# long enough until Mexico and Canada## 04:07.533 --> 04:11.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% did act. And it appears that they# are acting on American concerns. 04:11.466 --> 04:15.466 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% The tariffs that the president announced# today on steel and aluminum and the ones## 04:15.466 --> 04:19.366 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% that he said are coming, the so-called# reciprocal tariffs on everybody,## 04:19.366 --> 04:24.866 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% those are probably more in this second bucket# of structural, open-ended tariffs. And we can## 04:24.866 --> 04:29.366 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% expect those to be in place for a very long time,# because the problems that they're addressing,## 04:29.366 --> 04:34.066 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% the very large trade deficit, are# not going away in just a few months. 04:34.066 --> 04:35.266 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% AMNA NAWAZ: That is Greg Ip,## 04:35.266 --> 04:39.333 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% chief economics commentator at The Wall# Street Journal, .. 04:39.333 --> 04:43.066 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% Greg, thank you so much. Good to speak with you. 04:43.066 --> 04:44.866 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% GREG IP: Thanks for having me.