1 00:00:02,100 --> 00:00:04,466 GEOFF BENNETT: And here on the other side of our studio, we will be watching the results all 2 00:00:04,466 --> 00:00:08,433 night with our panel, which includes Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter, 3 00:00:08,433 --> 00:00:12,566 Republican strategist Kevin Madden and Democratic strategist Faiz Shakir. 4 00:00:12,566 --> 00:00:16,233 AMNA NAWAZ: Also with us all night is David Brooks, columnist at The New York Times, 5 00:00:16,233 --> 00:00:21,000 Jonathan Capehart, associate editor of The Washington Post, and, of course, our very own Judy 6 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:26,000 Woodruff, who is back from her travels across the country for her series America at a Crossroads. 7 00:00:26,733 --> 00:00:27,733 Welcome to you all. 8 00:00:27,733 --> 00:00:29,266 (CROSSTALK) 9 00:00:29,266 --> 00:00:31,033 AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Great to be here. 10 00:00:31,033 --> 00:00:32,133 AMNA NAWAZ: All right, Amy, you're going to kick us off tonight. 11 00:00:32,133 --> 00:00:33,900 We're going to be talking a lot... 12 00:00:33,900 --> 00:00:34,600 AMY WALTER: A lot. AMNA NAWAZ: ... about the specifics and the data. 13 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:36,466 AMY WALTER: Yes. 14 00:00:36,466 --> 00:00:38,466 AMNA NAWAZ: But just start us off big picture here. What are you going to be 15 00:00:38,466 --> 00:00:40,533 watching tonight and what kind of big questions are you looking to answer? 16 00:00:40,533 --> 00:00:43,933 AMY WALTER: Yes, I don't think I have ever experienced an election night like this, 17 00:00:43,933 --> 00:00:47,766 where we come in with the polls this close with so few people 18 00:00:47,766 --> 00:00:52,466 feeling like they have any sense of how this thing is going to break. 19 00:00:52,466 --> 00:00:57,433 And I also come into this knowing that, when you look at the way Americans feel about our political 20 00:01:00,300 --> 00:01:05,233 system right now, the sense that they believe that this is an existential election for them, 21 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:11,033 that my concern going forward is what happens to the numbers of people who will be very upset with 22 00:01:13,833 --> 00:01:18,833 what the result will be, because it's more than just an issue or a policy that they're voting on. 23 00:01:20,833 --> 00:01:25,233 But, broadly, big picture-wise, what I'm looking at is to see if the coalitions that 24 00:01:27,333 --> 00:01:31,133 we have become comfortable with really for the past 15 years or so, with Democrats doing much 25 00:01:33,233 --> 00:01:36,633 better in high turnout elections because they run strong with younger voters, with voters of 26 00:01:36,633 --> 00:01:41,633 color who don't traditionally turn out in, say, a midterm year, or they're not -- they are not 27 00:01:44,833 --> 00:01:49,800 as typical voter -- they don't vote as regular, is the word I'm looking for, as white voters. 28 00:01:51,300 --> 00:01:54,133 But now what we're looking at is a situation where it may be that 29 00:01:54,133 --> 00:01:59,100 Democrats are going to be able to find success not because they did better with 30 00:02:01,266 --> 00:02:05,033 younger voters or with voters of color, but because of their success with white voters, 31 00:02:06,833 --> 00:02:10,100 especially white voters with a college degree, and especially with women. 32 00:02:10,100 --> 00:02:13,033 And I think we're going to be looking very closely 33 00:02:13,033 --> 00:02:17,733 at those breakouts when we go to the key battleground states. 34 00:02:17,733 --> 00:02:19,933 GEOFF BENNETT: And on that point, Kevin, 35 00:02:19,933 --> 00:02:23,233 we do expect this race to be settled in the battlegrounds, chief among them Pennsylvania. 36 00:02:23,233 --> 00:02:26,500 What are you watching for tonight in Philadelphia and the surrounding... 37 00:02:26,500 --> 00:02:28,600 (CROSSTALK) KEVIN MADDEN, Republican Strategist: Yes. 38 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:30,666 I mean, also, we should think back to even when we were here in January during the 39 00:02:30,666 --> 00:02:33,133 primaries. We always said this is going to come down to about seven states. And, 40 00:02:33,133 --> 00:02:36,666 in those seven states, it was going to be these metropolitan areas and 41 00:02:36,666 --> 00:02:40,533 places like Philadelphia. So that's where I'm really watching for today. 42 00:02:40,533 --> 00:02:43,333 In order for anybody, any one of these candidates to win, 43 00:02:43,333 --> 00:02:47,733 they're really going to have to do well in these collar counties of Philadelphia 44 00:02:47,733 --> 00:02:52,700 and the eastern side of Pennsylvania. And so, for Trump, the charge has always been, 45 00:02:54,733 --> 00:02:57,733 is he going to be able to go out and win more voters beyond the Republican base? 46 00:02:59,866 --> 00:03:03,133 Is he going to be able to maybe flip some suburban Democratic -- some suburban Republican 47 00:03:05,100 --> 00:03:07,433 women who may have voted for Nikki Haley in the primaries? And would they come home 48 00:03:07,433 --> 00:03:11,533 for him in a general election? That's going to be the big test. So as we watch some of these 49 00:03:11,533 --> 00:03:16,533 numbers come out of Philadelphia, around the exurbs, up towards the Lehigh Valley, 50 00:03:18,833 --> 00:03:20,966 those are going to be some of the counties that I'm looking for to see where the splits are and 51 00:03:20,966 --> 00:03:25,766 where the margins are to see whether or not Trump was able to outperform where he was in 2020. 52 00:03:25,766 --> 00:03:28,500 GEOFF BENNETT: And, Faiz, when the Harris campaign says that they feel like they 53 00:03:28,500 --> 00:03:32,700 have momentum on their side, what are they pointing to? Is it just vibes or is there 54 00:03:32,700 --> 00:03:37,466 something tangible that they can point to and say, yes, we feel good about where we are? 55 00:03:37,466 --> 00:03:40,233 FAIZ SHAKIR, Democratic Strategist: Geoff, in the early vote, they did a great job. 56 00:03:40,233 --> 00:03:45,200 On the tactical side of this Harris campaign, you have seen extreme proficiency from the moment she 57 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:50,200 got into this race, money raised, volunteers recruited, convention executed flawlessly, 58 00:03:51,633 --> 00:03:53,600 debate executed flawlessly. She's in a great position. 59 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:57,366 When you looked at the early vote numbers, the gender gap was there and you say, 60 00:03:57,366 --> 00:04:01,266 running into Election Day, you're ahead. And, obviously, they need to maintain it. So, 61 00:04:01,266 --> 00:04:05,000 hopefully, they're counting on a lot of young people coming out today, knock on wood, in places 62 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:10,000 like Detroit and Philadelphia and Dane County and Madison. Hopefully, there's a huge youth turnout. 63 00:04:12,066 --> 00:04:15,433 I also think, though, they have run this very cautious and determined campaign. From the 64 00:04:15,433 --> 00:04:18,833 beginning, they made certain assumptions, Geoff, about what the electorate was. And 65 00:04:18,833 --> 00:04:23,000 part of that judgment was people were ready to turn the page on Trump. They had seen enough. 66 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:27,100 And they saw the Republican primaries, where 15 percent to 20 percent consistently showed that 67 00:04:27,100 --> 00:04:31,033 they were not with Trump in the Republican ranks. And the Harris campaign focused on them like a 68 00:04:31,033 --> 00:04:36,033 laser. That's why you had the Liz Cheney events, the Adam Kinzinger stuff, the Mark Cuban approach. 69 00:04:37,700 --> 00:04:40,266 So I think you're going to do well with college-educated people, 70 00:04:40,266 --> 00:04:42,800 and I hope we can continue to keep the margins with non-college people. 71 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,000 That's one thing that I will be watching closely tonight. 72 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,033 AMNA NAWAZ: So, David Brooks, we're going to be spending a lot of time together tonight. 73 00:04:48,033 --> 00:04:48,966 (LAUGHTER) 74 00:04:48,966 --> 00:04:50,233 DAVID BROOKS: Happy to be here. 75 00:04:50,233 --> 00:04:52,100 AMNA NAWAZ: I have snacks. Not to worry. 76 00:04:52,100 --> 00:04:55,433 But you always do such a great job of giving us this historical context here. 77 00:04:55,433 --> 00:04:58,700 We're going to find out obviously who wins and loses these races. But 78 00:04:58,700 --> 00:05:02,966 what else do you think we learn about the country or where we are tonight? 79 00:05:02,966 --> 00:05:04,833 (CROSSTALK) 80 00:05:04,833 --> 00:05:07,166 DAVID BROOKS: Yes, I want to know tonight, what political era are we in? 81 00:05:07,166 --> 00:05:10,266 So between Ronald Reagan and I guess you would say Barack Obama, there was differences obviously 82 00:05:10,266 --> 00:05:15,266 between the parties, but there was some consensus, consensus about NATO, consensus about free trade, 83 00:05:17,333 --> 00:05:19,600 consensus that the future of the American commerce is in information-age jobs, and we 84 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:23,266 should be training people to get through college so they can take advantage of the jobs of future. 85 00:05:23,266 --> 00:05:27,400 That was sort of the Republican and Democratic consensus. Along comes Donald Trump that says, 86 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:32,400 forget that. No free trade, no NATO, no transition to a postindustrial economy. 87 00:05:34,266 --> 00:05:38,633 I'm going straight for the industry, or at least lip service, if not policy. 88 00:05:38,633 --> 00:05:43,200 And so if Trump wins again, then the - - what we might call pejoratively the 89 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:48,200 neoliberal era from Reagan through Obama, that's over. That's in the rearview mirror, 90 00:05:49,966 --> 00:05:53,200 and we have entered a new populist age with Trump large and in charge. 91 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:56,033 AMNA NAWAZ: Jonathan, Amy mentioned a few key groups that we're going to be 92 00:05:56,033 --> 00:06:00,133 keeping an eye on. Is there any one group, any one trend you're 93 00:06:00,133 --> 00:06:03,566 going to be watching more closely than others over the course of the evening? 94 00:06:03,566 --> 00:06:04,633 JONATHAN CAPEHART: Funny you should ask. 95 00:06:04,633 --> 00:06:06,500 (LAUGHTER) 96 00:06:06,500 --> 00:06:09,633 JONATHAN CAPEHART: Yes. Yes, I am looking specifically at white women. 97 00:06:11,733 --> 00:06:15,133 A lot of the narrative leading up to this election was Vice President Harris was losing 98 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:21,733 Black men. And the feeling was, well, if she loses the election, it will be because of Black 99 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:29,800 men. And as a Black man, that's kind of hard to take, especially when African American men are 100 00:06:32,066 --> 00:06:36,133 such a tiny percentage of the voting population, whereas white women are the largest voting bloc. 101 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:43,066 Now, Black women are the largest and most consistent voting bloc for the Democratic Party, 102 00:06:43,066 --> 00:06:48,066 95, 98 percent. But white women in the 2016 election were 41 percent of the 103 00:06:50,100 --> 00:06:53,733 electorate. The exit polls then said that 52, 53 percent voted for Trump. But a Pew 104 00:06:57,100 --> 00:07:02,100 Research analysis in 2018 came back and really looked and said it was 47 percent. 105 00:07:03,766 --> 00:07:07,233 But he won the plurality of the white women vote. If Vice President Harris 106 00:07:08,900 --> 00:07:13,133 is to get over the line, she needs to have white women do what Black 107 00:07:13,133 --> 00:07:17,600 women have been doing since Trump was elected, and that is saving democracy. 108 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:22,600 I did an event with Nikole Hannah-Jones and Heather Cox Richardson two weeks ago 109 00:07:24,666 --> 00:07:28,000 and asked her this question. And, ultimately, she said to the white women in the audience, 110 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:33,433 call your people, because we have done enough and now if we're going 111 00:07:33,433 --> 00:07:37,133 to save -- if we are all going to save the democracy, you have to do your part. 112 00:07:37,133 --> 00:07:42,133 And she also has an essay in The New York Times, but that is what I'm watching for. 113 00:07:44,233 --> 00:07:47,300 And that's why I'm watching for it, because, if anything, the Dobbs decision has been 114 00:07:49,300 --> 00:07:52,533 a motivating factor for women across the board and the people and men who love them. 115 00:07:54,300 --> 00:07:59,233 But we have seen, at least I have seen white women galvanized in a way 116 00:08:01,233 --> 00:08:04,733 I have not seen. And I'm hoping that it will mean a good night for the democracy. 117 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:11,266 GEOFF BENNETT: And, Judy, you have unique insight into the issues that are really driving voters, 118 00:08:11,266 --> 00:08:14,000 animating the electorate as a consequence of your reporting, 119 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,200 your Crossroads reporting, where you have crisscrossed the nation. 120 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,566 What are your early impressions this evening? 121 00:08:18,566 --> 00:08:23,433 JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, I have come away. First of all, I'm glad to be here, other side of the desk. 122 00:08:23,433 --> 00:08:25,333 (LAUGHTER) 123 00:08:25,333 --> 00:08:26,466 JUDY WOODRUFF: It was time for a change. You guys have all the pressure. 124 00:08:26,466 --> 00:08:28,033 (LAUGHTER) 125 00:08:28,033 --> 00:08:30,200 JUDY WOODRUFF: So, traveling around the country, trying to 126 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:34,833 understand why we're so divided, I have to say, I come away with three things I am specifically 127 00:08:37,100 --> 00:08:38,966 looking for tonight, based on the reporting that I have done. And I will just give you examples. 128 00:08:38,966 --> 00:08:42,633 North Carolina, we were in Alamance County. These are -- this is a rural 129 00:08:42,633 --> 00:08:47,100 area outside Raleigh-Durham. For Kamala Harris to win that state, 130 00:08:47,100 --> 00:08:51,600 take it back from the Republicans, she needs to do well in these exurbs. I think Kevin, 131 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:56,600 Amy were talking about this, the suburbs that are outside the Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte. 132 00:08:58,866 --> 00:09:02,600 So that's one place we're looking at. We're also looking at Michigan, the so-called education, 133 00:09:04,666 --> 00:09:09,600 diploma divide, which is an increasing issue in American politics. I was in just a couple 134 00:09:11,500 --> 00:09:14,833 of weeks ago in both Macomb and Oakland counties, the biggest counties in the 135 00:09:14,833 --> 00:09:19,300 state just north of Detroit, Oakland being a place, majority with a lot of people with 136 00:09:19,300 --> 00:09:24,300 college -- excuse me -- college graduates, Macomb being more blue-collar, fewer college graduates. 137 00:09:28,033 --> 00:09:33,033 Joe Biden did very well in Oakland and won. Trump won Macomb. The question is, 138 00:09:35,100 --> 00:09:39,333 how are Harris and Trump going to do with people who have a college degree and don't? 139 00:09:41,733 --> 00:09:45,500 And just quickly, Arizona, we went to look at the divide, the partisan split among Hispanic voters. 140 00:09:47,900 --> 00:09:52,600 Last time, Hispanic voters in Arizona made up 19 percent of the electorate. Biden was able to win 141 00:09:54,900 --> 00:09:59,900 61 percent. So the question is, Republicans are now saying they can cut into that. Can they? Can 142 00:10:02,100 --> 00:10:06,100 they take away some of the Hispanic vote, which is -- traditionally was going more Democratic? 143 00:10:07,766 --> 00:10:09,100 AMNA NAWAZ: I think the other question with a shorter answer is, 144 00:10:09,100 --> 00:10:12,300 where haven't you been this election season? 145 00:10:12,300 --> 00:10:13,866 (LAUGHTER) (CROSSTALK) 146 00:10:13,866 --> 00:10:16,333 AMNA NAWAZ: But, Amy, as Judy mentioned there, North Carolina, 147 00:10:16,333 --> 00:10:19,266 we know that's one of the states where polls will close on the earlier side, along with Georgia. 148 00:10:19,266 --> 00:10:21,300 AMY WALTER: That's right. 149 00:10:21,300 --> 00:10:22,600 AMNA NAWAZ: We keep saying it could be a long night. We may not have an answer. 150 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:24,166 AMY WALTER: Right. 151 00:10:24,166 --> 00:10:26,000 AMNA NAWAZ: Is there anything you're tracking early in the 152 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,100 night specifically that you think gives us a direction of where things 153 00:10:28,100 --> 00:10:31,933 are going or that says this could be an earlier night than we expect overall? 154 00:10:31,933 --> 00:10:33,700 AMY WALTER: I want to say yes, because I want 155 00:10:33,700 --> 00:10:38,400 to believe that we will have some direction early on in the evening. 156 00:10:40,733 --> 00:10:43,133 But what we have come to see in our politics -- and, look, we talked about this the other night 157 00:10:43,133 --> 00:10:47,500 about seeing this Iowa poll that looked so outside of what we have been seeing in other states. 158 00:10:47,500 --> 00:10:49,733 (CROSSTALK) 159 00:10:49,733 --> 00:10:50,633 AMNA NAWAZ: Do expect that to come up again tonight, by the way. We will ask you about Iowa. 160 00:10:50,633 --> 00:10:52,800 AMY WALTER: OK. 161 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:54,933 But you think about the billions of dollars that have been spent on this election. They have all 162 00:10:54,933 --> 00:10:59,466 been spent in seven states. And so there are a lot of people in these other states that 163 00:10:59,466 --> 00:11:04,433 have not been getting the barrage of advertising and just the communication from the campaigns. 164 00:11:07,633 --> 00:11:12,133 How they behave may not tell us how the swing states are going to behave, 165 00:11:12,133 --> 00:11:16,200 and how the swing states behave may not tell us how those other states are going to behave. 166 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:20,466 And that's true too when we're thinking about all these House races and these Senate races. 167 00:11:20,466 --> 00:11:24,233 I am looking -- I think I will give you one clue. The Ohio Senate race, 168 00:11:24,233 --> 00:11:29,233 I think, will give us an idea for just what we -- what kind of Senate we could 169 00:11:30,566 --> 00:11:32,166 expect, what the margin may look like in the Senate. 170 00:11:32,166 --> 00:11:34,333 AMNA NAWAZ: And tell us about that. Why? 171 00:11:34,333 --> 00:11:36,666 AMY WALTER: Because this is a state where right now it's very, very close. Even though 172 00:11:36,666 --> 00:11:41,666 it's a red state, the Democratic senator there has been tied with his opponent. 173 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:47,300 To win, it would mean that he would need to win a lot of Trump voters. If that's the case, 174 00:11:47,300 --> 00:11:52,233 if we do see real ticket-splitting, then it means that the Senate and the House 175 00:11:52,233 --> 00:11:55,933 become much less predictable, because we're just so used to, 176 00:11:55,933 --> 00:11:58,966 if it's a red state, it goes red, if it's a blue state, it goes blue. 177 00:11:58,966 --> 00:12:03,233 And if Sherrod Brown were to hold on in Ohio, it suggests too that Democrats are going to have a 178 00:12:03,233 --> 00:12:07,833 much better night in the Senate. Doesn't mean necessarily they're going to hold the Senate, 179 00:12:07,833 --> 00:12:12,833 but that would be a better night. If he loses, now we're into that was the more 180 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:18,300 expected way that you would look at the Senate map, given how Republican Ohio is. 181 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:22,700 GEOFF BENNETT: Yes. And in the 30 seconds or so that we have left, 182 00:12:22,700 --> 00:12:27,600 how has he been able to hold on to that seat as Ohio has become redder and redder? 183 00:12:28,366 --> 00:12:29,900 AMY WALTER: I knew it. 184 00:12:29,900 --> 00:12:32,100 One, it helps to be an incumbent who's been there for a long time 185 00:12:32,100 --> 00:12:35,433 with an identity that fits the state. But the other is that they have just, quite frankly, 186 00:12:37,766 --> 00:12:40,600 outspent and been able to define their Republican opponent in a way that is helpful to the senator, 187 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:49,400 Senator Sherrod Brown. And really they have been on offense almost entirely in this campaign. 188 00:12:50,300 --> 00:12:52,600 Yes, it's been quite something. 189 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:54,700 GEOFF BENNETT: The most expensive U.S. Senate race in history. I feel like we say that about 190 00:12:54,700 --> 00:12:59,133 a Senate race in every election cycle, but the Ohio one is the one this time around. 191 00:12:59,133 --> 00:13:01,066 AMY WALTER: Every two years. And it will be every two years, yes. Yes. 192 00:13:01,066 --> 00:13:02,333 GEOFF BENNETT: All right, our thanks to our panel. They're going to stay 193 00:13:02,333 --> 00:13:06,500 around with us. They will be here all night.