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GEOFF BENNETT: Today, the
British and German foreign

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ministers visited Israel
and urged the government
to show restraint.

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But Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu said only Israel
will decide how to respond to

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last weekend's unprecedented
Iranian missile and

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drone attack. And Israeli
officials have indicated
they will respond.

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Nick Schifrin speaks to
experts now about what

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that action might look
like and how it will
affect the region -- Nick.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: For
decades, Geoff, Israel
and Iran have fought one
another in the shadows and

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through proxies, until Saturday
night, when Iran launched the
first ever state-on-state attack

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between these two countries,
with more than 300
missiles and drones flown
from Iran toward Israel.

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That attack was a response
to an Israeli strike in
Damascus that killed senior

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Iranian commanders. What
will Israel do next and what
might Iran do in response?

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We get two views. Eric
Edelman served as U.S.
ambassador to Turkey and was

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undersecretary of defense
for policy in the George
W. Bush administration.

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He's now at the Center
for Strategic and
Budgetary Assessments,
a research institute.

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And Vali Nasr was a special
adviser in the State Department
during the Obama administration.

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He's now a professor at
the Johns Hopkins School of
Advanced International Studies.

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Eric Edelman, Vali Nasr, thanks
very much. Welcome, both of
you, back to the "NewsHour."

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Eric Edelman, let
me start with you.

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As Geoff just said, this attack
by Iran was unprecedented.
Do you expect Israel

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to retaliate in a significant
kind of way? And should they?

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ERIC EDELMAN, Former State
Department and Defense
Department Official:

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Well, I think Israel has no
choice but to respond, Nick.

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This was, as you said,
unprecedented, but the scale
of this attack is what's

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really sort of breathtaking,
very large attack with
both ballistic cruise
missiles and UAVs,

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clearly meant to overwhelm
Israel's layered air defenses.

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And I think it is impossible
for Israel not to strike back
in some way. But Israel is

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in a quandary, because part
of its success in inflicting
a pretty humiliating defeat

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on what is one of the main
tools of coercion available to
the Iranian regime was through

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the work of its allies,
including the U.S. coordinating
a lot of efforts with CENTCOM,

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also the U.K., France,
but also Arab partners.

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And Israel doesn't want to
alienate them. So the calls
for restraint are clearly

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having an impact. The Israeli
war cabinet has met, I think,

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four times now trying
to determine exactly how
to respond. And it's a
difficult decision for them.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: Vali Nasr, is
that how you see this strike,

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breathtaking scale designed
to overwhelm Israeli
and allied defenses?

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VALI NASR, School of
Advanced International
Studies, Johns Hopkins
University: I think Eric's

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analysis is actually correct.

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So what we have been seeing is
that the rules of the game have
been significantly shifting

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with every attack and
counterattack. So Israel
hitting the consulate
in Damascus was viewed

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by Iran as sort of a new
sort of red line that Israel
crossed. Iran's attack

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on Israel is significant, not
only in terms of the number
of missiles that were used,

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but that it was also launched
from Iranian territory.

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It was done in a brazen
way. And the doctrine
that went with it is that,
from now on, if you attack

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Iran, we attack you
directly. Now, how Israel
responds to this -- and I
do agree with Eric that,

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both for domestic
political reasons and
for strategic reasons,
it's very, very difficult

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to see a scenario in which
Israel would not react,
could also, if you would
cross, another red line.

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So we're in an escalatory
cycle where the rules
of the shadow war

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are no longer holding. And
with each of these attacks, we
may be crossing a new Rubicon,

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and that eventually can open
- - end up in an open conflict.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: But, Eric
Edelman, I mean, there
are people in Israel,

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including inside the war
cabinet, who are arguing
for a much more robust
and immediate response.

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And they argue that
anything short of a
direct military strike by
Israel on Iran will allow

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Iran to have reset
deterrence and not --
and prevent Israel from
creating their own new line.

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ERIC EDELMAN: Well, I mean,
I think that Israel has many,
many tools at its disposal.

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And one of the things I
think that's asymmetry here
is that the very complex,

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layered defense that Israel
has available to it is not
something that Iran has. I think

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Israel has lots of ways,
including nonkinetic ways
with cyber, to inflict
real costs, impose

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real costs on the Iranian
regime in a way that
does reset deterrence
without actually getting

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into the kind of escalatory
spiral that Vali was discussing,
which I agree is a possibility.

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But, right now, I think this
was a very - - should be a
very disturbing defeat for

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the Iranian regime. The
fact that I think that
they're concerned about
it has been demonstrated

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by the crackdown on domestic
dissent that we have seen
in the last 48, 72 hours.

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And, right now, it's not even
clear that they could launch a
second volley, since they may

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have used up a lot of their
medium-range ballistic
missiles in the first go-round.

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And the failure rate may have
been as high as 50 percent. So
if you're sitting in Tehran,

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I think you might be more
worried about an escalatory
cycle than Israel is right now.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: Vali Nasr,

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two U.S. officials did
confirm to me that the
failure rate was 50 percent.

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But in terms of what Iranian
government is saying,
they are saying that they

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could actually go bigger
next time. And President
Raisi specifically said that

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even a small attack by
Israel on Iran would yield
a larger strike on Israel.

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Is that bluster or is that real?

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VALI NASR: I think it's
both. In other words,
definitely, there's bluster,

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but there's also definitely
very tough rhetoric
in order to dissuade

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Israel from doing something
that would then force
the Iranians to escalate.

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But I would say that exactly
the ambiguities that exist
here, what can the Iranians do,

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how afraid are they, would they
react, at what level they react,

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is exactly why Israel is
pondering its response and
why you have two foreign

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ministers visiting Israel
in order to ask Israel
to restrain itself.

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But, partly, this is
not entirely a military
issue. It's not a question

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of just what fail rate Israel's
missiles had, but the way in
which this crisis over the last

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10 days impacted global markets,
impacted psychologically Israel,

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economically, but also the
way in which the United
States and Europe reacted to

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the urgency of the situation
basically does give Iran
a certain leverage here.

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In other words, once Israel
attacks Iran, we don't
know when Iran would react,

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but we may go through another
10 days, 15 days of this
sort of thing. And then,

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if the Iranians decide to
react, and then Israel reacts
to Iran's reaction, essentially,

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Israel and Iran are not -- no
longer the only two parties that
are affected by this crisis.

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The global economy, the
Arab governments around
them, Europe and the
United States are affected,

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and they're quite worried. And
that's also a factor that's
playing in here as well.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: Eric Edelman,
very quickly, because we
only have about 45 seconds,

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the U.S. is trying to urge
Israel not to strike back
at all. And they're urging

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sanctions internationally.
They're talking about that air
defense coalition expanding.

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Could that reassure
Israel not to strike?

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ERIC EDELMAN: I think
that what I have heard
from U.S. officials is

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that they expect that there will
be some retaliation by Israel.

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Exactly how it goes, I think
nobody really knows right now.
And there has been, as Vali was

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suggesting and as you
have suggested, Nick, some
hesitation the Israeli
side about how far to go.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: Yes.

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ERIC EDELMAN: But I think you're
going to see some response.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: And, Vali Nasr,
does that necessarily mean
exactly what you were just

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worried about, another round
and more weeks of concern
for the whole region?

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VALI NASR: Well, it
depends on what the nature
of that response is.

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And then we're going to see
all these European diplomats,

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U.S. through back channels,
Arab diplomats turn their
attention to Tehran to try to

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preach the same thing to
the Iranians to - - not to
react to the Israeli attack.

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NICK SCHIFRIN: Yes.

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Vali Nasr, Eric Edelman,
thanks very much to you both.

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ERIC EDELMAN: Thank you.
VALI NASR: Thank you.