WEBVTT 00:05.200 --> 00:06.200 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% Thanks for joining us. 00:06.200 --> 00:07.733 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Republican political consultant 00:07.733 --> 00:09.466 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% Jamie Roe is in the loop with his take 00:09.466 --> 00:11.533 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% on the presidential race in our state. 00:11.533 --> 00:13.300 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Our lead story, Ms .Harris, Mr. 00:13.300 --> 00:15.366 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% Trump and Mr. Vance all visit Michigan. 00:15.366 --> 00:17.700 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% What did they say when they were here? 00:17.700 --> 00:21.133 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% To answer that around the OTR table, Kyle Melinn, 00:21.133 --> 00:23.100 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% Jordyn Hermani and Bill Ballenger. Sit in with us 00:23.100 --> 00:29.333 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% as we get the inside out, off the record 00:29.333 --> 00:31.566 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% production of Off the Record is made possible 00:31.566 --> 00:34.700 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% in part by Martin Waymire, a full service 00:34.700 --> 00:36.766 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% strategic communications agency, 00:36.766 --> 00:39.100 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% partnering with clients through public relations, 00:39.100 --> 00:42.033 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% digital marketing and public policy engagement. 00:42.033 --> 00:45.300 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% Learn more at Martinwaymire.com 00:45.300 --> 00:50.500 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% and now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick. 00:50.500 --> 00:51.166 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% Thank you very much. 00:51.166 --> 00:52.366 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% Welcome to Studio C. 00:52.366 --> 00:54.466 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% As we continue on our road toward this election, 00:54.466 --> 00:56.066 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% how are we ready for this to be over? 00:56.066 --> 00:59.200 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% Yes, well, yeah, we've got a long way to go. 00:59.200 --> 00:59.500 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% All right. 01:00.366 --> 01:01.333 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% Let's first of all, before we get to the visit 01:01.333 --> 01:03.200 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% by all the candidates into Michigan, 01:03.200 --> 01:06.566 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Jordyn, we had the labor unions checking in on a very 01:06.566 --> 01:08.900 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% serious debate going on with the tip workers 01:08.900 --> 01:10.466 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% who want to hang on to their tips. 01:10.466 --> 01:12.333 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% And the union said thanks, but no thanks. 01:12.333 --> 01:13.533 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% How come? Right. 01:13.533 --> 01:15.433 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% So we have about six 01:15.433 --> 01:17.366 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% of the state's largest unions that came out. 01:17.366 --> 01:19.266 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% They wrote a letter to the House 01:19.266 --> 01:20.933 align:left position:37.5% line:5% size:52.5% speake and the Senate majority leader. 01:20.933 --> 01:22.400 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% The House and Senate are obviously both controlled 01:22.400 --> 01:25.600 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% by Democrats, basically saying, hey, do not touch 01:25.600 --> 01:28.500 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% what the Supreme Court came down with earlier in the summer, 01:28.500 --> 01:31.500 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% which would phase out a tipped wage for workers. 01:31.500 --> 01:33.733 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% It's just under $4 right now in Michigan 01:33.733 --> 01:37.533 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% and it would bump Michigan's 1033 an hour minimum wage. 01:37.533 --> 01:38.433 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% Under the ruling, 01:38.933 --> 01:42.000 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% the minimum wage would increase nearly $15 an hour by 2028, 01:42.000 --> 01:45.100 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% and that tipped wage would be gone by 2030 01:45.100 --> 01:46.566 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% and it would match minimum wage level. 01:46.566 --> 01:49.266 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% So everyone's quote unquote, on the even playing field, 01:49.266 --> 01:52.000 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% labor unions said, hey, don't don't mess with that. 01:52.000 --> 01:54.100 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% This was a victory for workers rights. 01:54.100 --> 01:57.300 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% And that doesn't really bod well as we many of us know that 01:57.300 --> 02:01.366 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% unions and Democrats are usually typically in good alignment. 02:01.366 --> 02:03.100 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% It doesn't bod well for people who are looking 02:03.100 --> 02:03.900 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% to get that change. 02:04.266 --> 02:05.966 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Well, Kyle what's interesting is when we had Mr. 02:05.966 --> 02:08.966 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% Ellis, who is from the Ba Owners Association in this seat, 02:09.200 --> 02:11.100 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% he was talking very optimistically 02:11.100 --> 02:13.166 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% about finding a compromise with the D's. 02:13.166 --> 02:17.266 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% And he said, I have a commitment or they want to talk to me. 02:17.266 --> 02:18.733 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% The legislative leaders 02:18.733 --> 02:21.533 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% game over right now, an it would certainly seem like it. 02:21.533 --> 02:23.900 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% I mean, I would say it's game over because 02:23.900 --> 02:27.166 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% this whole this whole scheme was put together by ROC, 02:27.166 --> 02:29.100 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% the Restaurant Opportunities Center, 02:29.100 --> 02:32.766 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% and which is pretty aligned with the labor unions, 02:32.766 --> 02:36.366 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% and they created this formula to make it clear that 02:36.566 --> 02:40.066 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% these servers are at least supposed to be guaranteed now 02:40.066 --> 02:42.333 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% the same minimum wage as everybody else, 02:42.333 --> 02:46.100 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% but that we saw also earlier this week 02:46.100 --> 02:47.666 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% that some servers, 02:47.666 --> 02:48.633 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% hundreds of servers 02:48.933 --> 02:51.633 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% came to the Capitol and said, but but we're not making 02:51.633 --> 02:52.366 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% out on this. 02:52.366 --> 02:54.000 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% I mean, some lose money. 02:54.000 --> 02:55.366 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% We're actually going to lose money 02:55.366 --> 02:58.866 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% because people are going to stop tipping 20% on their bill. 02:58.866 --> 03:03.266 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% And instead of coming home with $100, $150 in tips, 03:03.266 --> 03:04.566 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% I'm just making the minimum wage. 03:04.566 --> 03:07.466 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% Might as well work at Burger King. 03:07.466 --> 03:09.333 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% Tip workers are screwed. 03:09.333 --> 03:10.966 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% That's what the bottom line is. 03:10.966 --> 03:13.266 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% I mean, look, 03:13.266 --> 03:16.700 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% it was pretty much preordained as far as I'm concerned. 03:16.700 --> 03:18.533 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% The Democrats in the legislature weren't 03:18.533 --> 03:22.000 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% going to do anything on this to begin with. 03:22.000 --> 03:25.033 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% And now any prospect that they would do 03:25.033 --> 03:28.733 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% anything has been dashed by the union statement. 03:28.733 --> 03:31.400 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% So game over. 03:31.400 --> 03:34.366 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% Only thing they got tipped workers out of this 03:34.366 --> 03:40.000 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% was this modified Supreme Court twitch to postpone 03:40.000 --> 03:44.500 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% the phasing out of the temp wage until 2030-1 year. 03:44.500 --> 03:47.133 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% That's it. That's all they got and they're getting screwed. 03:47.133 --> 03:49.100 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% I saw the people who are watching this now 03:49.100 --> 03:51.500 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% at home are wondering, so how does this impact me? 03:51.500 --> 03:53.133 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% In fact, there could be, 03:53.133 --> 03:54.800 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% if you believe what the bar owners 03:54.800 --> 03:56.866 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% and restaurant folks are saying is 03:56.866 --> 03:58.233 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% a couple of things will happen. 03:58.233 --> 04:00.533 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% Some businesses will simply close. 04:00.533 --> 04:00.800 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% All right. 04:01.966 --> 04:03.766 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% We don't know what that numbe is, but the number is up there. 04:03.766 --> 04:05.333 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% Some workers will leave. 04:05.333 --> 04:05.800 align:left position:40% line:5% size:50% Okay. 04:06.466 --> 04:08.900 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% So basically the hospitality industry will be 04:08.900 --> 04:11.200 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% you go in and order your food, go up to the bar 04:11.200 --> 04:13.366 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% and pick it u and bring it back to your table. 04:13.366 --> 04:16.133 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% This decision came out, the unions said right away, 04:16.133 --> 04:19.433 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% this is just business as usual business 04:19.433 --> 04:22.833 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% crying wolf and it's all B.S. 04:22.833 --> 04:24.433 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% And they're just trying to get 04:24.433 --> 04:27.433 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% this thin scaled back by the legislature, 04:27.666 --> 04:31.366 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% and we're not liking it at that point. 04:31.366 --> 04:33.433 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% And that was like two or three weeks ago. 04:33.433 --> 04:35.566 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% Now, yesterday. That's the end of it. 04:35.566 --> 04:36.400 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% Yeah. All right. 04:36.866 --> 04:38.800 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% So everybody in his uncle was in the state this week. 04:38.800 --> 04:41.833 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% What was the lead out of all of these visits, Kyle? 04:41.833 --> 04:44.300 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% Oh, gosh Auto industry is going to die. 04:44.300 --> 04:47.700 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Donald Trump basically predicted it's on its last legs. 04:47.933 --> 04:50.133 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% Kamala Harris with Oprah Winfrey. 04:50.133 --> 04:53.466 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% You know, Michiga just continues to stay relevant. 04:53.466 --> 04:56.500 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% And so these folks are goin to continue to get earned media 04:56.500 --> 04:58.066 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% and they're going to keep bringing up 04:58.066 --> 05:02.466 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% different issues in small crowds to get the TV cameras there. 05:02.466 --> 05:05.466 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% West Michigan is seen as a very critical 05:05.700 --> 05:08.066 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% part of the state a critical part of the country. 05:08.066 --> 05:10.633 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% So you continue to see J.D. Vance go there. 05:10.633 --> 05:12.233 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% He's been in the state five times, 05:12.233 --> 05:13.966 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% four times he's been to West Michigan. 05:13.966 --> 05:16.066 align:left position:37.5% line:5% size:52.5% That's got to tell you something. 05:16.066 --> 05:19.333 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Meanwhile, Donald Trump is going to Flint, of all things. 05:19.333 --> 05:21.133 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I mean, that just kind of seems counterintuitive, 05:21.133 --> 05:23.266 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% except when you take a look at the media markets 05:23.266 --> 05:24.633 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% and you realize that 05:24.633 --> 05:25.866 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% if you're able to go to Flint, 05:25.866 --> 05:27.366 align:left position:37.5% line:5% size:52.5% you're going to guarantee yourself 05:27.366 --> 05:31.000 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% all of those news station in that tri city area in Flint 05:31.000 --> 05:32.000 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% are going to show up. 05:32.000 --> 05:33.966 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% So you get free earned media there. 05:33.966 --> 05:35.733 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% So it's just for both campaigns, 05:35.733 --> 05:38.966 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% they still see this as relevan as Michigan is being relevant. 05:38.966 --> 05:41.133 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% And as long as we are still relevant, 05:41.133 --> 05:42.433 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% they're going to keep coming here. 05:42.433 --> 05:44.900 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% I mean, I looked bac at the headlines the other day. 05:44.900 --> 05:46.000 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% I think we're going on 05:46.000 --> 05:47.833 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% something like two straight months 05:47.833 --> 05:50.100 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% where a presidential candidate or vice presidential 05:50.100 --> 05:51.166 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% candidate has visited 05:51.166 --> 05:53.433 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% the state of Michigan at least once a week. 05:53.433 --> 05:56.233 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% And that really just goes to underscore A, again, 05:56.233 --> 05:57.700 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% I feel like a broken record saying this, 05:57.700 --> 05:59.900 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% how much of a swing state we are, but B, 05:59.900 --> 06:02.166 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% how tight this race is in Michigan. 06:02.166 --> 06:06.166 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I mean, when you go back to 2020 and Joe Biden won by, what, 06:06.166 --> 06:10.166 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% 154,000 votes, I honestly will be surprised 06:10.166 --> 06:12.033 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% if we do hit such a large threshold 06:12.033 --> 06:13.400 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% and think we may be more looking 06:13.400 --> 06:16.000 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% at something like a 2016 turnout. 06:16.000 --> 06:19.966 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% William? Well this is groun zero on the Electoral College, 06:20.166 --> 06:23.566 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Michigan along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin 06:23.566 --> 06:25.100 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% and a few other states. 06:25.100 --> 06:27.400 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% So the candidates are going to keep coming. 06:27.400 --> 06:31.833 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% And you've got actually dueling Vice President nominees 06:31.833 --> 06:36.400 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% Tim Walz and JD Vanc both picked to a certain extent 06:36.400 --> 06:40.166 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% because each of the presidential nominees thought they might 06:40.400 --> 06:44.000 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% really be able to hel in some other Midwestern states 06:44.000 --> 06:47.766 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% simply because they've got that Midwestern vibe 06:47.766 --> 06:51.400 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% that is missing fro the top of the ticket otherwise. 06:51.400 --> 06:55.566 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% And right now, I'd say JD Vance is losing that fight, 06:55.566 --> 06:58.833 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% and I'm wonderin whether he's setting himself up 06:58.833 --> 07:01.233 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% for real trouble getting reelected in Ohio 07:01.233 --> 07:04.100 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% if he's not elected this November. Well it's 07:04.100 --> 07:07.500 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% to pick a guy from Ohio to try and engender goodwill in 07:07.500 --> 07:12.100 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Michigan yo start. Send him to Ann Arbor. 07:12.100 --> 07:13.266 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% that blimp that 07:13.266 --> 07:16.433 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% they flew over, the University of Michigan Stadium. 07:16.433 --> 07:18.133 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Yeah. Yeah, that's right. Yeah. 07:18.133 --> 07:18.766 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% What about Mr. 07:19.366 --> 07:21.800 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Trump continues to beat on this auto industry thing. 07:21.800 --> 07:23.933 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% He basically said, 07:23.933 --> 07:26.766 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% you know, the industry has got two or three years to go, 07:26.766 --> 07:28.966 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% which nobody in this state has said that at all. 07:28.966 --> 07:31.933 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% No, but I mean, he has become the master of hyperbole 07:31.933 --> 07:35.800 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% and stretching things out and and really kind of 07:35.800 --> 07:39.166 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% taking it another ste to try and get people excited, 07:39.166 --> 07:42.800 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% whether it's that or I'm going to cut your energy rates 50%. 07:42.800 --> 07:45.766 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% You know, it's it's. If I can. Yeah, if I can. 07:45.766 --> 07:47.000 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% Right. Yeah, sure I can. 07:47.000 --> 07:49.066 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% You know so it's it is hyperbole. 07:49.066 --> 07:50.100 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% It's trying to get 07:50.333 --> 07:52.966 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% at our heartstring and pull in on our insecurities 07:52.966 --> 07:54.200 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% about whether we're going to have a job, 07:54.200 --> 07:56.000 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% whether we're going to have an auto industry. 07:56.000 --> 07:58.800 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% And that's and that's so important to this state 07:58.800 --> 08:02.133 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% Well his argument is that EVs are taking over 08:02.133 --> 08:03.933 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% the industry and Michigan is going 08:03.933 --> 08:05.900 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% to lose that battle to China. 08:05.900 --> 08:10.100 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% And so the traditional model of the fossil fuel 08:10.100 --> 08:13.233 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% automotive ca that was developed in the state 08:13.233 --> 08:15.700 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% over a century ago is going to be kaput 08:15.700 --> 08:17.100 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% and EVs are taking over. 08:17.100 --> 08:18.766 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% And Michigan is not where the action is. 08:18.766 --> 08:19.766 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% You know, Debbie Stabenow, 08:19.766 --> 08:21.233 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% we talked to her a couple of weeks ago. 08:21.233 --> 08:22.333 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% She said what is driving 08:22.533 --> 08:25.633 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% this debate on the Republican side is the oil industry. 08:25.633 --> 08:26.133 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% They are 08:26.333 --> 08:27.033 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% they are the ones that are 08:27.600 --> 08:29.700 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% pulling the strings here to make sure that they have 08:29.700 --> 08:31.633 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% some part of the market left over 08:31.633 --> 08:34.400 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% after the EV revolution, quote unquote, is over. 08:34.400 --> 08:37.100 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% Well, if you take a loo at Donald Trump's contributions, 08:37.100 --> 08:40.133 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% he does get a significant amount from the petroleum industry. 08:40.133 --> 08:41.133 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% And he has talked 08:41.366 --> 08:44.266 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% on the campaign trail, day one, drill, baby, drill. 08:44.266 --> 08:45.600 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% So that does line up. 08:45.600 --> 08:48.200 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% I think what you guy are talking about does line up 08:48.200 --> 08:50.533 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% about the insecuritie and then talking again, though, 08:50.533 --> 08:54.233 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% about West Michigan and the Goshen plant up north 08:54.233 --> 08:55.466 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% and how J.D. 08:55.466 --> 08:57.200 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% Vance has used that just recently. 08:57.200 --> 08:58.700 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% Use that again in Sparta 08:58.700 --> 09:01.066 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% to try and get people excited about the idea of, 09:01.066 --> 09:02.066 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% oh my gosh, what happens 09:02.300 --> 09:05.133 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% if we get all these battery cars all made in China? 09:05.133 --> 09:05.633 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% What does 09:06.533 --> 09:09.233 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% it look like for our industr and do we not have jobs anymore? 09:09.466 --> 09:11.233 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% It's a good line that they're playing with, 09:11.233 --> 09:14.800 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% especially when a Democrati administration is giving money 09:15.033 --> 09:17.200 align:left position:37.5% line:5% size:52.5% to help make this transition happen. 09:17.200 --> 09:19.233 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% Well, the polling data, we have two polls out. 09:19.233 --> 09:20.133 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% The Emerson Hill 09:20.133 --> 09:20.733 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% poll says 09:21.366 --> 09:24.266 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% it is tied here in Michigan, but the university from 09:24.266 --> 09:25.866 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Connecticut, what's the name of the university? Quinnipiac. 09:25.866 --> 09:26.733 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% Thank you. Okay. 09:26.733 --> 09:27.100 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% All right. 09:28.100 --> 09:29.933 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% Notice how I didn't want t pronounce it and I never will. 09:29.933 --> 09:31.133 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% They have a good hockey team. 09:31.133 --> 09:33.400 align:left position:40% line:5% size:50% Yeah, they have a five point lead. 09:33.400 --> 09:35.633 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% They gave her a five point bounce 09:35.633 --> 09:37.200 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% out of the debate in Michigan. 09:37.200 --> 09:39.333 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% So go figure which one is right. 09:39.333 --> 09:39.600 align:left position:40% line:5% size:50% Well, 09:40.300 --> 09:40.933 align:left position:37.5% line:5% size:52.5% I think if you take a look at all 09:41.666 --> 09:43.433 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% the polls since Harris becam a nominee in Michigan, there's 09:43.433 --> 09:47.200 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% I counted 18 and Trump is only up in four of them. 09:47.200 --> 09:48.533 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% And there's like three ties. 09:48.533 --> 09:51.466 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% But the one thing that that I have noticed that is 09:51.466 --> 09:54.366 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% that is similar in all of them is that there's 09:54.366 --> 09:55.633 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% there's a small, narrow 09:55.633 --> 09:58.633 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% band that each of the candidates are operating within. 09:58.633 --> 10:03.133 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% With Harris, it's somewhere between 51 and 48, 47%. 10:03.133 --> 10:05.233 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% Every single poll has her within that band. 10:05.233 --> 10:06.266 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% And with Trump, 10:06.266 --> 10:08.233 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% he hasn't been able to crest 50% 10:08.233 --> 10:10.333 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% since Harris has been a candidate. 10:10.333 --> 10:12.166 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% That's the magic number. In Michigan. 10:12.166 --> 10:14.800 align:left position:37.5% line:5% size:52.5% Not one poll has had him at 50%. 10:14.800 --> 10:16.133 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% He's been at 49, but not 50. 10:16.133 --> 10:18.833 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% So he's in this 49-46 band. 10:18.833 --> 10:22.366 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% So what I see is I see tha I mean, I'm noting that there's 10:22.366 --> 10:23.500 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% a five point 10:23.500 --> 10:24.566 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% margin in one poll 10:24.566 --> 10:24.800 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% and then 10:25.933 --> 10:27.866 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% another poll has a tied, bu they're both within those bands. 10:27.866 --> 10:29.900 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% So if you look at it that way, 10:29.900 --> 10:33.166 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% these polls are still within the margin of error of each other 10:33.400 --> 10:38.100 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% and that the the upshot is tha Harris is still marginally up, 10:38.100 --> 10:40.266 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% but again, still within the margin of error. 10:40.266 --> 10:41.966 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% I mean, it's like the weather in Michigan. 10:41.966 --> 10:43.000 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% If you don't like whatever 10:43.000 --> 10:44.466 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% the poll says about your candidate, 10:44.466 --> 10:46.833 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% just wait 5 minutes and there will be a new one. 10:46.833 --> 10:48.866 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I mean, we've consistently seen, 10:48.866 --> 10:49.366 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% like Kyle 10:50.066 --> 10:51.266 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% just said, the same thing sort of over and over, 10:51.266 --> 10:54.300 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% and they're operating within floating between these 10:54.300 --> 10:58.133 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% two metrics that, you know, it hasn't changed in 10:58.133 --> 10:59.700 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I mean, it's changed slightly, 10:59.700 --> 11:03.100 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% but it just goes to sho how much people are kind of done 11:03.100 --> 11:04.000 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% with this year. All right. 11:04.000 --> 11:04.333 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% All right. 11:04.566 --> 11:05.133 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% Let's shift gears. 11:05.466 --> 11:08.133 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% Banning or excuse me, not banning, 11:08.133 --> 11:10.900 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% restricting the use of cell phones in schools. 11:10.900 --> 11:14.300 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% This has now become a cause celeb. Yes. 11:14.300 --> 11:17.700 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% Well, it could at the state level become a cause 11:17.700 --> 11:19.700 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% celeb. Although I don't see 11:19.700 --> 11:23.733 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% any evidence of real energy in the legislature. 11:23.733 --> 11:26.066 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% They are fallin all over themselves to do this. 11:26.066 --> 11:28.066 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% They had a shot at this a couple of years ago. 11:28.066 --> 11:31.766 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% Local school district can already do this and some are 11:31.766 --> 11:34.900 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% the Governor can also sign an EO an executive order 11:34.900 --> 11:36.166 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% to do it. You know she could try that. 11:36.166 --> 11:38.266 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% I mean, the point is it's all about 11:38.266 --> 11:41.266 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% getting cell phone use out of the classroom 11:41.266 --> 11:44.900 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% particularly doing during instructional hours. 11:44.900 --> 11:47.933 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% I mean, maybe there's some rationale to students 11:47.933 --> 11:51.100 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% basically having cell phones when they're not actually 11:51.100 --> 11:52.266 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% in the classroom. 11:52.266 --> 11:53.066 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% But the best 11:53.533 --> 11:57.166 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% excuse for keeping cell phones with children in class 11:57.166 --> 11:59.933 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% is we got to make sur that they can call their parents 11:59.933 --> 12:00.900 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% and law enforcement 12:01.366 --> 12:04.800 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% or vise versa. If the school i being terrorized. The parents 12:04.800 --> 12:06.666 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% in many respects locally are driving this debate. 12:06.666 --> 12:08.266 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I mean, I can just think back to 12:08.266 --> 12:10.233 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% when I was in high school and I would just as somewhat 12:10.233 --> 12:12.733 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% defend the usage of cell phones in school. 12:12.733 --> 12:15.033 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% They were brought into instructional time. 12:15.033 --> 12:16.100 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I mean, there would be times 12:16.100 --> 12:17.566 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% when you would be able to, you know, 12:17.566 --> 12:19.866 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% answer trivia questions that were going on 12:19.866 --> 12:21.900 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% for homework on the board or something like that. 12:21.900 --> 12:24.166 align:left position:37.5% line:5% size:52.5% I mean, I understand the argument 12:24.166 --> 12:26.666 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% definitely for banning them. Both My parents are teachers. 12:26.666 --> 12:29.800 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% I have heard many storie about how frustrating it can be. 12:29.800 --> 12:32.833 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% I mean, I also understan the need for not banning them. 12:32.833 --> 12:34.400 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% I get that it can be very concerning 12:34.400 --> 12:36.733 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% to not have the ability to talk to a child. 12:36.733 --> 12:38.333 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% I'm not a parent myself, granted, 12:38.333 --> 12:40.266 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I can't fully comprehend that. 12:40.266 --> 12:43.100 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% But I mean, in all fairness, 12:43.100 --> 12:46.233 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% we survived so many years prior to cell phones 12:46.233 --> 12:48.233 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% where you couldn't get a hold of your child. 12:48.233 --> 12:49.900 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I can't imagine that this one 12:49.900 --> 12:53.233 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% generation of student is that drastically different. 12:53.233 --> 12:55.300 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I think that, you know, banning. 12:55.300 --> 12:56.366 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% But to that point, banning 12:56.366 --> 12:57.933 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% should probably be left up to the schools. 12:57.933 --> 12:59.500 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% I do find it a little funny that Republicans 12:59.500 --> 13:01.966 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% are kind of leading the charge on this one, when they're 13:01.966 --> 13:03.566 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% traditionally small government. Rep. Mark Tisdale has worked on 13:03.566 --> 13:05.933 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% this for over a year. Thi legislation. He's really done a 13:05.933 --> 13:08.966 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% deep dive.. We got into this in pretty good the other day and 13:08.966 --> 13:10.333 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% it was really on top of this. 13:10.333 --> 13:13.333 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% He basically says look at the last thing you want. 13:13.533 --> 13:15.866 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% In the midst of an active shooter prowling around 13:15.866 --> 13:16.366 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% the school. 13:16.966 --> 13:18.933 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% Is your kid on the phone with their parent 13:18.933 --> 13:20.033 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% when they aren't listening 13:20.033 --> 13:21.833 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% to the perso at the head of the room? Okay. 13:21.833 --> 13:24.200 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% You don't want all of the parents jumping in their cars 13:24.200 --> 13:25.500 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% and running to the school 13:25.500 --> 13:28.000 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% while the first responders are trying to get there. 13:28.000 --> 13:28.833 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% And he said, I'm 13:29.233 --> 13:32.000 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% very clear that I understand the angst of the parents 13:32.000 --> 13:33.266 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% in this situation. 13:33.266 --> 13:36.133 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% But his argument was Kyle, that kids are actually safer 13:36.366 --> 13:37.833 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% if the parents stay out of the loop. 13:37.833 --> 13:39.466 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% That's a dangerous thing to say. 13:39.466 --> 13:42.266 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% That's an interesting argument to make. I find it. 13:42.266 --> 13:45.800 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% What I find interesting in this is that Mark Tisdale, 13:45.800 --> 13:47.733 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% a state representative out of Rochester, 13:47.733 --> 13:50.266 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% which is in a politically competitive district, 13:50.266 --> 13:53.833 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% has picked up this issu and is now working it two months 13:53.833 --> 13:55.366 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% before an election. 13:55.366 --> 13:58.400 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% So maybe from my standpoint, it sounds like there is some 13:58.400 --> 14:02.500 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% connection he's trying to mak with with parents, with schools, 14:02.500 --> 14:05.533 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% trying to make the statement that having cell phones as a 14:05.533 --> 14:07.266 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% distraction in the classroom 14:07.266 --> 14:08.233 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% and that that's something 14:08.600 --> 14:12.200 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% that maybe better taking care of as an issue state wide. 14:12.200 --> 14:13.133 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% It's certainly 14:13.366 --> 14:15.033 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% a different debate and something worth having. 14:15.033 --> 14:18.033 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% But I have a feeling that he has people in his district 14:18.033 --> 14:20.266 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% tapping him on the shoulder saying this is a good idea. 14:20.266 --> 14:22.033 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% And that is in response to that. 14:22.033 --> 14:22.933 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% He confirmed it. 14:23.433 --> 14:25.733 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% He said, we meet once a mont with the all the administrators, 14:25.733 --> 14:27.733 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% the principals, and they are all over us. 14:27.733 --> 14:29.433 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% Okay, do something. 14:29.433 --> 14:31.400 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% It helps the mental health situation, 14:31.400 --> 14:33.333 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% the bullying online and stuff like that. 14:33.333 --> 14:35.100 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% Did you ever run into that in school? 14:35.100 --> 14:37.300 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% Me being bullied? No, no, no, no, no. 14:37.300 --> 14:39.100 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% This like a very pointed question. 14:39.100 --> 14:40.500 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% Most of mine are. 14:40.500 --> 14:42.033 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% But I digress. 14:42.033 --> 14:42.900 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% Social media, though. 14:42.900 --> 14:43.333 align:left position:40% line:5% size:50% Yeah. 14:43.333 --> 14:43.666 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% In school, 14:44.000 --> 14:45.033 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% I mean, I saw it more so 14:45.400 --> 14:47.866 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% moving into college that I mean, I can think of, for instance, 14:47.866 --> 14:50.333 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% the campus act, Yik Yak, and that's going to date me 14:50.333 --> 14:53.433 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% horrifically, but yeah, I mean there's all sorts of reasons 14:53.433 --> 14:56.866 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% why social media has been use both positively and negatively. 14:57.066 --> 14:57.300 align:left position:40% line:5% size:50% To me 14:58.133 --> 14:59.166 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% it just seems like a really strange fight 14:59.166 --> 15:01.533 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% to pick right now of all times to feel 15:01.533 --> 15:02.733 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Tisdale's got a winning issue. 15:02.733 --> 15:04.733 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% And I think it's a winning issue for Republicans. 15:04.733 --> 15:05.600 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% I guess what 15:06.166 --> 15:08.633 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I think is one of the few time I can think of the Republicans 15:08.633 --> 15:12.433 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% might be in sync with the MEA or teachers in general. 15:12.433 --> 15:13.900 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% I'll tell you, it's a winning argument 15:13.900 --> 15:17.000 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% if you can make cell phones disrupting their classroom. 15:17.000 --> 15:18.966 align:left position:37.5% line:5% size:52.5% Right But parents vote, too, is all. 15:18.966 --> 15:20.833 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% My point is in that, you know, it seems like 15:20.833 --> 15:22.833 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% a strange issue to pick right now. 15:22.833 --> 15:25.533 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% To Kyle's point, fewer than 60 days ahead of an election. 15:25.533 --> 15:26.700 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% It's not really going to go anywhere. 15:26.700 --> 15:29.133 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% So maybe it's fine in that regard, because I 15:29.133 --> 15:30.466 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% it doesn't look like the legislature 15:30.466 --> 15:32.866 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% is coming back to vote on much soon. It's not going to go 15:32.866 --> 15:33.933 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% anywhere right now. 15:33.933 --> 15:36.500 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% But look this may be a lagging indicator. 15:36.500 --> 15:38.633 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% You could see it on top of everybody 15:38.633 --> 15:41.800 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% listening here So bill back i the day before, were there cell 15:41.800 --> 15:42.433 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% phones, If parents, 15:42.433 --> 15:43.066 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% if you're 15:43.366 --> 15:44.433 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% your parents wanted to get in touch 15:44.433 --> 15:46.366 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% with you in school, what would they do? 15:46.366 --> 15:48.366 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% Call the principal's office. Exactly. 15:48.366 --> 15:52.733 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% And would you get the message and then you could ignore it? 15:52.733 --> 15:53.400 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% Yeah, I don't 15:53.833 --> 15:57.200 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% think you have any choice but to obey it. 15:57.200 --> 16:00.000 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% But they have actually said they have put more people 16:00.000 --> 16:03.000 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% on duty to answer the phone in the principal's office. 16:03.000 --> 16:05.766 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% If parents want to call in, it's interesting, I think they'll 16:05.766 --> 16:07.766 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% I think they will pick it up in the new year. 16:07.766 --> 16:10.133 align:left position:40% line:5% size:50% I do, but I've been wrong before. 16:10.133 --> 16:10.433 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% All right. 16:10.800 --> 16:11.266 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% Let's call in our guest 16:11.733 --> 16:12.900 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% to talk about politics with Jamie 16:12.900 --> 16:15.833 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Roe down in our favorite county, Macomb County. 16:15.833 --> 16:18.066 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% Mr. Roe, how you doing? 16:18.066 --> 16:19.400 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% Good to see you. 16:19.400 --> 16:20.666 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% You're doing wonderful 16:20.666 --> 16:24.200 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% Greetings from the center of the universe in Michigan. 16:24.200 --> 16:25.400 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% Oh, no, no. 16:25.400 --> 16:27.600 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% Actually, Frasie is the center of the universe. 16:27.600 --> 16:30.066 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% Okay, Did you know that? 16:30.066 --> 16:31.866 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% Which is in McComb County? 16:31.866 --> 16:33.000 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% I'm aware of that. 16:33.000 --> 16:34.233 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% Okay, so look at 16:34.233 --> 16:37.100 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% will you concede tha you're your candidate for the US 16:37.100 --> 16:40.900 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Senate by the name of Rogers is losing this race today? 16:40.900 --> 16:43.566 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% As we sit here. Do you concede that point? 16:43.566 --> 16:45.233 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I will not concede that point. 16:45.233 --> 16:48.666 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I think momentum's with Mik Rogers. I'm not talking about 16:48.666 --> 16:50.233 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% momentum, I'm talking about who's ahead. 16:50.233 --> 16:51.600 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% But we're not doing big Mo. 16:51.600 --> 16:53.600 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% We're doing big lead. 16:53.600 --> 16:57.000 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Well, you know, quite honestly the election isn't held today. 16:57.000 --> 16:58.433 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% But the fact of the matter is, Elissa 16:58.433 --> 17:02.033 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Slotkin has already spent $25 million 17:02.033 --> 17:05.833 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% lying about Mike Rogers record and her numbers don't move. 17:05.833 --> 17:07.066 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% Rogers is coming up. 17:07.066 --> 17:09.266 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% People are getting reacquainted with him. 17:09.266 --> 17:11.266 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% And we're very confident 17:11.266 --> 17:13.566 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% that come November 5th, Mike Rogers, 17:13.566 --> 17:15.100 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% is gonna be the next senator from Michigan. 17:15.100 --> 17:17.600 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% So all the polling data that has her with a firm 17:17.600 --> 17:20.766 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% lead beyond the margi of error are simply dead wrong? 17:20.766 --> 17:22.266 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% I don't know that there is any polling 17:22.266 --> 17:25.266 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% that shows her with a firm lead beyond the margin of error. 17:25.500 --> 17:26.700 align:left position:40% line:5% size:50% Well there's one that just came out 17:26.700 --> 17:29.333 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% that gave her a five point lead. 17:29.333 --> 17:32.133 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% Plus or minus what? 17:32.133 --> 17:32.900 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% Let me just say this. 17:32.900 --> 17:33.833 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I'm not going to debate polls, 17:34.033 --> 17:35.833 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% particularly media polls. Of course you're not 17:35.833 --> 17:37.633 align:left position:37.5% line:5% size:52.5% because you're losing them, right? 17:37.633 --> 17:40.066 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% Well well, no, 17:40.066 --> 17:41.266 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% because the media polls are 17:41.266 --> 17:41.933 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% often done 17:42.566 --> 17:44.933 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% not to reflect public opinion, but to try and shape it. 17:45.166 --> 17:48.333 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% And we are paying attention to what we have internally. 17:48.333 --> 17:49.733 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% And what we have internally shows 17:49.733 --> 17:52.300 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% that we are on the path to victory in November. 17:52.300 --> 17:54.900 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% What does your polling data show about John James? 17:54.900 --> 17:56.266 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Have you been following that race? 17:56.266 --> 17:58.533 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% And now that the Democrats are starting to actually 17:58.533 --> 18:00.300 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% spend some real money on their candidate, 18:00.300 --> 18:04.433 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Carl Marlinga, is there concern that he's in trouble? 18:04.433 --> 18:06.000 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% I think John James is doing great. 18:06.000 --> 18:09.800 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% He won last year in 2022. 18:09.800 --> 18:11.166 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% In a year when we're getting beat 18:11.166 --> 18:13.366 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% by ten points at the top of the ticket 18:13.366 --> 18:17.066 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% and and held on to win i what is sort of a tough district 18:17.066 --> 18:17.733 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% at that time. 18:17.733 --> 18:18.233 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% I think he's 18:19.133 --> 18:21.766 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% got two years of experienc now where he's really delivered 18:22.000 --> 18:23.966 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% particularly here for Macomb County. 18:23.966 --> 18:25.400 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% And I'm pretty confident 18:25.400 --> 18:29.133 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% John James is going to be going to be strong on Election Day. 18:29.133 --> 18:30.266 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% He's been he's done 18:30.266 --> 18:32.266 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% an absolutely great job in Congress. 18:32.266 --> 18:34.466 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% He's worked with all of our local leaders down here. 18:34.466 --> 18:35.600 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% I was speaking to one 18:35.600 --> 18:37.333 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% local Democrat leader 18:37.333 --> 18:38.000 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% at an event 18:38.000 --> 18:38.700 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% the other day 18:39.200 --> 18:41.833 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% who was praising the job that John James has done 18:41.833 --> 18:42.766 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% for Macomb County. 18:42.966 --> 18:46.666 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% So we're pretty confident actually live from 18:46.666 --> 18:49.833 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% about 500 feet outside of John James district right now. 18:49.833 --> 18:51.266 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% And there's 18:51.266 --> 18:54.366 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% he has got a ton of support down here, Macomb County. 18:54.366 --> 18:57.733 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% The other thing that they did that the 1.7 million, 18:57.733 --> 18:58.066 align:left position:37.5% line:5% size:52.5% I guess 18:58.400 --> 18:59.133 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% from some outside group 18:59.666 --> 19:02.266 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% that's going to come in and support Marlinga bought 19:02.266 --> 19:07.366 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% late in the game at X you kno extortion rates on Detroit TV. 19:07.366 --> 19:10.700 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% So it's not going to go as fa as what John James already has, 19:10.700 --> 19:12.033 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% confident that he's going to have 19:12.033 --> 19:13.766 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% the ability to get his message out. 19:13.766 --> 19:17.866 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% And quite honestly, Macomb County is voting Republican. 19:17.866 --> 19:20.533 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% So that's why I'm saying it from the top of the ticket 19:20.533 --> 19:21.900 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% back down. 19:21.900 --> 19:23.133 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% You know, Trump, you 19:23.133 --> 19:26.066 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% think, is going to carry Macomb County pretty easily. 19:26.066 --> 19:29.833 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I think Trump is going to carry Macomb County 19:29.833 --> 19:33.200 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% better than he carried it in 2016 or 2020. 19:33.200 --> 19:34.700 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% And he carried it both. 19:34.700 --> 19:35.600 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% And I think we're 19:35.900 --> 19:38.500 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% going to see a big margin here out of the county in 19:38.500 --> 19:39.600 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% I'll just tell you this, 19:39.600 --> 19:42.466 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% his coattails in Macomb County are long. 19:42.466 --> 19:45.666 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% When we we were running 19:45.666 --> 19:49.900 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% in 2016, Trump carried McComb County solidly 19:50.133 --> 19:53.266 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% in helped us to elect a our county treasurer. 19:53.266 --> 19:54.966 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% My former boss, Candice Miller, 19:54.966 --> 19:59.300 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% got elected public works commissioner and we elected 19:59.300 --> 19:59.933 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% a woman that 20:00.633 --> 20:03.000 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% probably had no busines winning as as our county clerk. 20:03.200 --> 20:08.166 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% So the the the coattail for Trump in this area are long. 20:08.166 --> 20:10.566 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% And I think it helped not only John James, 20:10.566 --> 20:12.333 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% but it also helps us to take back 20:12.333 --> 20:15.366 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% the majority in the state House, where we have several 20:15.366 --> 20:16.800 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% very competitive races 20:16.800 --> 20:18.933 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% for the state House here in Macomb County, 20:18.933 --> 20:21.233 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% feeling very confident about those as well. 20:21.233 --> 20:23.900 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% To that to that point, you know, you mentioned that 20:23.900 --> 20:25.600 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% John James won in 2022. 20:25.600 --> 20:28.000 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% He only won by half a percentage point, though. 20:28.000 --> 20:29.733 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% And, you know, with Trump on the ballot 20:29.733 --> 20:33.733 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% this year, it's no secret that suburban women 20:33.733 --> 20:37.466 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% helped deliver Joe Biden a victory in 2020. 20:37.466 --> 20:40.033 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% All that being said, with the current rhetoric 20:40.033 --> 20:43.066 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% that we're kind of hearing out of the 20:43.066 --> 20:44.866 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% Vance-Trump ticket, 20:44.866 --> 20:46.133 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% are we at all concerned 20:46.133 --> 20:49.766 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% that that point five victory that you guys had in 2022, 20:50.000 --> 20:51.633 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% that that's going to be, you know, 20:51.633 --> 20:52.966 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% drawn down like, what are you guys, 20:52.966 --> 20:55.533 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% I guess, doin moving into this election year 20:55.533 --> 20:59.333 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% differently that you didn't do in '22? 20:59.333 --> 21:02.666 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% Well, one thing we hav is a strong top of the ticket. 21:02.666 --> 21:06.400 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% I mean, that that is the very different 21:06.400 --> 21:08.666 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% situation than it was in 2022. 21:08.666 --> 21:14.233 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% Also, Prop thre is not on the ballot in in 2024. 21:14.233 --> 21:17.833 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% Those were things that really hurt us 21:17.833 --> 21:21.933 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% at the ballot box in areas across the state. 21:21.933 --> 21:25.700 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% I can't tell you how much more helpful it is 21:25.700 --> 21:29.266 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% for someone like John James or 21:29.266 --> 21:32.766 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% the state House races to hav Donald Trump leading the ticket. 21:32.766 --> 21:34.100 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% And Mike Rogers, 21:34.100 --> 21:35.600 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% I mean, there are two 21:35.600 --> 21:38.600 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% top of the ticket races are going to be very strong 21:38.600 --> 21:41.533 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% in this area, and that's going to help across the board. 21:41.533 --> 21:44.600 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% And as far as communicating with suburban women, yes. 21:44.600 --> 21:46.000 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% And we're going to talk about issues 21:46.000 --> 21:48.033 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% that they care about, like the economy, 21:48.033 --> 21:50.900 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% starting with the economy and the border, to think that 21:50.900 --> 21:54.666 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% that women, suburban women are only 21:54.666 --> 21:57.633 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% interested in abortio like some on the other side do. 21:57.866 --> 22:00.900 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I think it is a slap at suburban women. 22:00.900 --> 22:01.866 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% Now, Jamie, 22:01.866 --> 22:03.166 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% you had mentioned a little earlier 22:03.166 --> 22:06.000 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% about the state House races and you feel like Republicans 22:06.000 --> 22:07.733 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% are going to be successful there. 22:07.733 --> 22:09.500 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% How many seats do you believe? 22:09.500 --> 22:11.800 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% Just the McComb County, the Republicans will be able 22:11.800 --> 22:15.733 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% to flip in McComb Count and be specific on which ones? 22:15.733 --> 22:17.733 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% Well, I think that there 22:17.733 --> 22:19.066 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% obviously, I think the ones 22:19.066 --> 22:22.300 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% that are up for grabs are pretty self-explanatory 22:22.300 --> 22:26.766 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% based on where the Democrat are plowing cash into right now. 22:26.766 --> 22:30.200 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% I think Nat Shannon is in very big trouble 22:30.200 --> 22:34.033 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% in Sterling Height and Warren and Denise Mentzer, 22:34.033 --> 22:36.966 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% I think is in very big trouble in Clinton 22:36.966 --> 22:40.266 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% Township, in Sterling Heights, in Mount Clemens. 22:40.266 --> 22:43.400 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% And Mai Xiong 22:43.400 --> 22:46.400 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% I think, is it has has some issues. 22:46.600 --> 22:50.900 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% And that seat is one that Trump carried twice previously. 22:50.900 --> 22:52.533 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% So I thin we're going to be in the battle 22:52.533 --> 22:53.666 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% in all three of those. 22:53.666 --> 22:55.500 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% And I thin all of our incumbents are safe. 22:55.500 --> 22:57.700 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% Mr. Trump' rhetoric about the auto industry 22:57.700 --> 23:00.266 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% has not exactly sounded complimentary. 23:00.266 --> 23:03.466 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Is there a potential backlash from him coming in this state 23:03.466 --> 23:06.366 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% and saying, we're going to be toast in two years, 23:06.366 --> 23:09.100 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% that Donald Trump is telling th truth about the auto industry? 23:09.100 --> 23:12.166 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% The fact of the matter is that the the Biden-Harris- 23:12.166 --> 23:16.600 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Slotkin EV mandate is a problem for the auto industry. 23:16.600 --> 23:18.933 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% You know, I'm here in Macomb County right now. 23:18.933 --> 23:19.733 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% You know what we do? 23:19.966 --> 23:21.833 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% We manufacture things in Macomb County, 23:21.833 --> 23:23.800 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% particularly for the auto industry. 23:23.800 --> 23:25.833 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% And one thing that 23:25.833 --> 23:26.266 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% electric 23:27.166 --> 23:30.833 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% vehicles don't need ar engines and parts and certainly 23:30.833 --> 23:34.033 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% a lot less parts than you have in electric vehicle. 23:34.300 --> 23:36.400 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% And you don't need engine plants, 23:36.400 --> 23:38.666 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% you don't need transmission plants, 23:38.666 --> 23:42.133 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% you don't need all the things that you need to put together 23:42.133 --> 23:46.133 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% an electric vehicle and it is 40% less labor. 23:46.133 --> 23:49.600 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% And the UAW themselves knows this, 40% less labor 23:49.600 --> 23:52.600 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% to build an EV than to build 23:52.800 --> 23:55.200 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% a gas powered car. Yes. 23:55.200 --> 23:55.766 align:left position:37.5% line:5% size:52.5% So also 23:56.566 --> 23:59.533 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% they also counter that new jobs will be created in the EV 23:59.533 --> 24:02.933 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% industry and those people will simply segway from one to the 24:02.933 --> 24:07.066 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% other. 40% less labor, Tim to build an EV, 24:07.266 --> 24:10.166 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% and that includes whatever those new jobs are 24:10.166 --> 24:13.166 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% that that will allegedly be created in. 24:13.166 --> 24:16.000 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% Quite honestly another thing I think that most 24:16.000 --> 24:17.733 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% people around here involved in the auto industry 24:17.733 --> 24:18.466 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% have problems with 24:19.133 --> 24:22.100 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% is they do not want to hav to import technology from China 24:22.333 --> 24:26.200 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% and import Chinese Communist Party connected companies 24:26.200 --> 24:29.100 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% to build the automobiles of the future. 24:29.100 --> 24:34.033 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% And quite, quite honestly right now you cannot build an EV 24:34.033 --> 24:38.233 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% without importing minerals and materials from China. 24:38.233 --> 24:42.566 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Who controls 80% of the world market for the chemicals 24:42.566 --> 24:45.100 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% that are needed to build electric vehicle batteries? 24:45.100 --> 24:48.166 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% So EV is EVs empower China 24:48.366 --> 24:51.400 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% and internal combustion engines power America. 24:51.400 --> 24:53.066 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% So I'm for powering 24:53.066 --> 24:56.166 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% the American auto industry not the Chinese auto industry. 24:56.166 --> 25:00.200 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% Jamie. the Teamsters have refused to endorse 25:00.400 --> 25:02.466 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% in the presidential race this year. 25:02.466 --> 25:03.500 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% Quite unusual. 25:03.500 --> 25:05.266 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% First time they haven't 25:05.266 --> 25:09.466 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% endorsed the Democratic nominee since before Bill Clinton. 25:09.466 --> 25:12.366 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% So what do you make of that? 25:12.366 --> 25:13.766 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% I think that 25:13.766 --> 25:17.133 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% it was interesting when thei announcement came out yesterday 25:17.133 --> 25:20.500 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% because the presiden of the Teamsters Union said that 25:20.766 --> 25:23.933 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Kamala Harris did not achieve a majority of the poll 25:23.933 --> 25:28.366 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% of their members, and Donal Trump didn't claim a consensus. 25:28.600 --> 25:30.400 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% So it makes you think if they had 25:30.400 --> 25:33.000 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% if Kamala Harris had gotten a majority of their members, 25:33.000 --> 25:34.433 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% they likely would have endorsed her. 25:34.433 --> 25:35.000 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% But I don't know. 25:35.633 --> 25:37.933 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% Trump needed 100% o something like that to get the 25:37.933 --> 25:39.100 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% the union had the courage 25:39.100 --> 25:41.433 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% to actually reflect the will of their members. 25:41.433 --> 25:45.000 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% We're seeing this with blue collar workers 25:45.000 --> 25:48.066 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% across the countr and certainly across this state, 25:48.066 --> 25:52.633 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% that they know that their live were better under Donald Trump 25:52.633 --> 25:56.400 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% and that he is about building American industry, 25:56.400 --> 25:57.900 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% not foreign industry. 25:57.900 --> 26:00.266 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% And they're showing up in the polls. 26:00.266 --> 26:02.066 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% I thought it was very interesting 26:02.066 --> 26:05.100 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% that 50 in the Teamsters own poll of their members, 26:05.100 --> 26:08.266 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% 59% wanted Donald Trump. 26:08.266 --> 26:11.166 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% But the union leadership didn't have the courage to 26:11.166 --> 26:12.033 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% to endorse him. 26:12.300 --> 26:14.633 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% And I think that was a mistake on their part. 26:14.633 --> 26:17.100 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% But I think it shows tha we're winning blue collar votes. 26:17.100 --> 26:20.666 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% We are the party of the working class now, Republican Party 26:20.666 --> 26:22.766 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% is the party of the working class. 26:22.766 --> 26:24.400 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% And we're feeling very strong 26:24.400 --> 26:26.133 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% about where we're at with those voters. 26:26.133 --> 26:27.800 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% Mr. Roe, thank you for being on the program. 26:27.800 --> 26:29.433 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% It's good to see you again. 26:29.433 --> 26:31.066 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% Nice to see you, too. Okay. 26:31.066 --> 26:35.166 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% So in other words, do you thin Harris is going to win, right? 26:35.166 --> 26:37.300 align:left position:35% line:5% size:55% I do not. 26:37.300 --> 26:38.666 align:left position:22.5% line:5% size:67.5% Just just checking. 26:38.666 --> 26:40.366 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% Also, our thanks to our panel. 26:40.366 --> 26:41.166 align:left position:32.5% line:5% size:57.5% Next week. 26:41.166 --> 26:42.766 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% More off the record right here. 26:42.766 --> 26:44.833 align:left position:27.5% line:5% size:62.5% Please join us. 26:44.833 --> 26:47.100 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% Production of Off the Record is made possible, 26:47.100 --> 26:50.233 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% in part, by Martin Waymire, a full service 26:50.233 --> 26:52.300 align:left position:10% line:5% size:80% strategic communications agency, 26:52.300 --> 26:54.633 align:left position:17.5% line:5% size:72.5% partnering with clients through public relations, 26:54.633 --> 26:57.566 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% digital marketing and public policy engagement. 26:57.566 --> 27:00.766 align:left position:30% line:5% size:60% Learn more at Martin Waymire.com 27:01.066 --> 27:04.766 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% For more off the record, visit WKAR.org 27:04.766 --> 27:07.133 align:left position:12.5% line:5% size:77.5% Michigan public television stations have contributed 27:07.133 --> 27:09.100 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% to the production costs of off the record.