1 00:00:05,966 --> 00:00:07,266 The end is in sight. 2 00:00:07,266 --> 00:00:10,533 The OTR panel this week takes a at the last major races 3 00:00:10,533 --> 00:00:12,100 and where they are in the polling data. 4 00:00:12,100 --> 00:00:15,200 And lots of folks are voting in Michigan. 5 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:16,466 Around the OTR table. 6 00:00:16,466 --> 00:00:19,500 Kyle Melinn, Jordan Hermani, Lauren Gibbons and Colin 7 00:00:19,500 --> 00:00:22,833 Jackson sit in with us as we get that inside out. 8 00:00:22,833 --> 00:00:27,233 Off the record 9 00:00:27,233 --> 00:00:29,500 production of Off the Record is made possible, 10 00:00:29,500 --> 00:00:32,666 in part by Martin Waymire, a full service 11 00:00:32,666 --> 00:00:34,666 strategic communications agency, 12 00:00:34,666 --> 00:00:37,000 partnering with clients through public relations, 13 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:39,933 digital marketing and public policy engagement. 14 00:00:39,933 --> 00:00:43,233 Learn more at Martinwaymire.com 15 00:00:43,233 --> 00:00:47,866 And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Skubick. 16 00:00:47,866 --> 00:00:48,433 Thank you very much. 17 00:00:48,433 --> 00:00:50,166 The end is in sight. 18 00:00:50,166 --> 00:00:53,733 I can feel it. Listen, I want you to pretend 19 00:00:53,733 --> 00:00:56,833 you're either in the Harris camp or the Trump camp. 20 00:00:56,833 --> 00:00:58,500 And you look at data out of Michigan 21 00:00:58,500 --> 00:01:01,166 which says so far in the early voting, 22 00:01:01,166 --> 00:01:05,166 55% of the vote female 44% male. 23 00:01:05,166 --> 00:01:06,200 What are you thinking? 24 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:07,566 I mean, I think right now the numbers 25 00:01:07,566 --> 00:01:08,833 benefit the Harris campaign. 26 00:01:08,833 --> 00:01:11,100 And we were talking in every Trump rally 27 00:01:11,100 --> 00:01:13,466 I've been to, every advance rally I've been to, 28 00:01:13,466 --> 00:01:14,666 they always rally the crowd up. 29 00:01:14,666 --> 00:01:16,233 They ask them who has voted early. 30 00:01:16,233 --> 00:01:18,166 You know, to borrow a point from Jordyn, 31 00:01:18,166 --> 00:01:19,366 this is something I've noticed as well. 32 00:01:19,366 --> 00:01:21,466 There's been an very concerted effort 33 00:01:21,466 --> 00:01:23,533 to promote different types of voting options. 34 00:01:23,533 --> 00:01:25,800 But it feels like the supporters there in the audience 35 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:27,500 are not actually embracing 36 00:01:27,500 --> 00:01:29,733 those early or absentee voting options. 37 00:01:29,733 --> 00:01:31,966 So for this many people to vote early, 38 00:01:31,966 --> 00:01:33,766 it does seem like it benefits Democrats, 39 00:01:33,766 --> 00:01:35,066 at least on the face of it. 40 00:01:35,066 --> 00:01:38,900 Yeah, I know the Novi rally that Trump had very recently, 41 00:01:38,900 --> 00:01:42,333 he and others preceding hi and trying to fire up the crowd, 42 00:01:42,333 --> 00:01:43,600 kept pumping up the 43 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:45,833 who here is ready, who here is excited to vote early. 44 00:01:45,833 --> 00:01:47,966 Make sure you vote early. And you could of 45 00:01:47,966 --> 00:01:49,433 heard a pin drop in that arena. 46 00:01:49,433 --> 00:01:52,333 There was some muffled cheers, but it's not a good sign, 47 00:01:52,333 --> 00:01:57,133 Those were Democrats who had infiltrated the rally. 48 00:01:57,133 --> 00:01:58,700 but yo hear of a high female turnout. 49 00:01:58,700 --> 00:02:00,766 That's obviously that' very beneficial with the gender 50 00:02:00,766 --> 00:02:02,100 gap, especially with Democrats 51 00:02:02,100 --> 00:02:03,600 trying to make abortion such an issue. 52 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:05,733 And sorry, I think I woul cut you off there for a second. 53 00:02:05,733 --> 00:02:07,500 Yeah, that was the point that I was going to make. 54 00:02:07,500 --> 00:02:07,700 You know, 55 00:02:08,533 --> 00:02:09,933 we have been seeing in these numbers, 56 00:02:09,933 --> 00:02:12,800 you know, there's been more men supporting Trump, more women 57 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:13,666 supporting Harris. 58 00:02:13,866 --> 00:02:16,066 So if more women are turning out to vote, 59 00:02:16,066 --> 00:02:19,000 that would suggest that perhaps those numbers are good for 60 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:20,600 Harri You want to make it unanimous? 61 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,333 No. I'm going to talk more about the squeezing of the balloon. 62 00:02:24,333 --> 00:02:25,700 Like, is this just 63 00:02:25,700 --> 00:02:28,566 people have decided that they're changing their voting habits 64 00:02:28,766 --> 00:02:31,566 or is this that there's actually going to be more turnout? 65 00:02:31,566 --> 00:02:33,300 I mean, I don't think that you can really read 66 00:02:33,300 --> 00:02:35,700 too many too much into results at this point. 67 00:02:35,700 --> 00:02:36,833 I'm more interested 68 00:02:36,833 --> 00:02:39,833 in the universe of people who are voting and 69 00:02:39,833 --> 00:02:43,533 are these low propensity voters that both the Republicans 70 00:02:43,533 --> 00:02:46,533 and Democrats are going after, Are they actually showing up? 71 00:02:46,533 --> 00:02:49,766 And will we have more people actually voting in 2020? 72 00:02:49,766 --> 00:02:51,766 And I think the answer is going to be yes. 73 00:02:51,766 --> 00:02:53,733 But what about the 55-44 split f 74 00:02:53,733 --> 00:02:55,733 Maybe they just want to vote early. 75 00:02:55,733 --> 00:02:56,533 I mean, I don't I'm 76 00:02:57,100 --> 00:02:59,766 not reading too much into that because maybe on Election Day 77 00:02:59,766 --> 00:03:02,800 it will be 55% men and 45% women. 78 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:04,466 That's what I mea by the squeezing of the balloon. 79 00:03:04,466 --> 00:03:06,833 I don't I'm not going to get worked up about that. 80 00:03:06,833 --> 00:03:09,000 I'm more intereste in the fact that this election 81 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,533 has become like this all consuming thing. 82 00:03:11,533 --> 00:03:13,966 And it's just become amazingly exhausting. 83 00:03:13,966 --> 00:03:16,300 I mean, I know that I'm getting a little older, 84 00:03:16,300 --> 00:03:19,800 but this is been more exhausting than any election 85 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:20,933 that I've had to cover. 86 00:03:20,933 --> 00:03:22,800 And it's it's the rallies, it's 87 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:24,533 the emails, it's the text messages. 88 00:03:24,533 --> 00:03:26,333 It just never seems to end. 89 00:03:26,333 --> 00:03:27,933 And for us, it's not going to end either. 90 00:03:27,933 --> 00:03:28,266 I mean, 91 00:03:29,100 --> 00:03:30,300 both presidential campaigns on the final day, 92 00:03:30,300 --> 00:03:31,800 they're going to be right back here in Michigan. 93 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:34,400 Harris here on Sunday. Trump on here on Monday. 94 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,200 We have a ton of get out the vote stuff 95 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:37,300 that's going on in between then. 96 00:03:37,300 --> 00:03:38,533 It is. 97 00:03:38,533 --> 00:03:41,033 It's just never ending for for a swing state like us. 98 00:03:41,033 --> 00:03:43,933 And I think we have seen it just up and down the ticket. 99 00:03:43,933 --> 00:03:44,866 Everyone is just 100 00:03:45,233 --> 00:03:48,466 pouring money into Michigan and nationally, state level. 101 00:03:48,700 --> 00:03:50,700 And it's not just the presidential. 102 00:03:50,700 --> 00:03:52,200 It's not just the Senate. 103 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,200 It's all these competitive congressional races. 104 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:56,366 It's all these competitive state House races 105 00:03:56,366 --> 00:03:58,366 which are on track to be the most spending 106 00:03:58,366 --> 00:04:00,566 that we've ever seen in state House races. 107 00:04:00,566 --> 00:04:02,066 Those mailers that people 108 00:04:02,066 --> 00:04:04,600 are getting to their inbox, like even the Supreme Court, 109 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:05,966 you've seen a decent 110 00:04:05,966 --> 00:04:06,933 chunk of change 111 00:04:07,300 --> 00:04:09,966 put be invested into trying to turn people out to vote, 112 00:04:09,966 --> 00:04:12,633 or if you have taken out an absentee ballot 113 00:04:12,633 --> 00:04:14,333 or you're planning to vote early, 114 00:04:14,333 --> 00:04:17,366 then there's 15 mailers a da telling you to turn your ballot 115 00:04:17,366 --> 00:04:18,700 in or vote early now. 116 00:04:18,700 --> 00:04:22,700 So it's it is aggressiv at this point for every voter. 117 00:04:22,700 --> 00:04:24,633 And I do want to touch upon something Kyle said early. 118 00:04:24,633 --> 00:04:25,600 You know, maybe the Election Day 119 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:26,733 turnout is a little bit different. 120 00:04:26,733 --> 00:04:27,933 So maybe to be 121 00:04:28,133 --> 00:04:30,700 it may be too soon to look into these early voting numbers. 122 00:04:30,700 --> 00:04:32,866 But if you look at the speeches, 123 00:04:32,866 --> 00:04:34,800 Republican Congressman John James has given us 124 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:36,566 some of these Trump rallies where he's encouraged. 125 00:04:36,566 --> 00:04:38,633 He always uses a Lions metaphor. 126 00:04:38,633 --> 00:04:39,933 You know, you don't let the other team 127 00:04:39,933 --> 00:04:41,600 run up the score three quarters of the game 128 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:42,366 in the fourth quarter. 129 00:04:42,733 --> 00:04:43,966 All of a sudden now try to score the points 130 00:04:43,966 --> 00:04:45,766 and wonder what happened the next day. 131 00:04:45,766 --> 00:04:47,333 So you got to wonder like, 132 00:04:47,333 --> 00:04:48,600 what's going to happen on Election Day? 133 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:48,933 You know, you 134 00:04:49,633 --> 00:04:50,700 hope people can vote and you hope people 135 00:04:50,900 --> 00:04:52,800 can turn out to the polls, but things always happen. 136 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:56,166 Babie get sick, cars get flat tires. 137 00:04:56,166 --> 00:04:57,633 Well, at this point to its forecast 138 00:04:57,633 --> 00:04:59,366 that it's probabl going to rain on Election Day, 139 00:04:59,366 --> 00:05:01,400 which does not bode well for I mean, 140 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:03,066 you think. Nobody wants to go out in the rain. 141 00:05:03,066 --> 00:05:06,033 Well, historically, too, I mean, obviously with 2020 142 00:05:06,033 --> 00:05:08,233 being a bit of an outlier because of COVID, 143 00:05:08,233 --> 00:05:10,566 traditionally Democrats vote absentee 144 00:05:10,566 --> 00:05:13,166 or are more inclined to vote absentee 145 00:05:13,166 --> 00:05:15,233 and Republicans are more inclined to vote day of. 146 00:05:15,233 --> 00:05:17,366 And that's not good news for the Trump campaign. 147 00:05:17,366 --> 00:05:20,033 If that rain persists. Th numbers coming out of Detroit, 148 00:05:20,033 --> 00:05:22,933 the prediction that 53% turnout would beat 149 00:05:22,933 --> 00:05:26,233 what Biden did in 2020, He got 51%. 150 00:05:26,233 --> 00:05:29,200 And there was a major problem in 2016 with Mrs. 151 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:30,733 Clinton. She got 49. 152 00:05:30,733 --> 00:05:33,533 The numbers out of Detroit, a good vibe for the D's. 153 00:05:33,533 --> 00:05:35,300 Well, historically, you would say yes. 154 00:05:35,300 --> 00:05:37,833 But I would also sa that the Trump campaign has done 155 00:05:37,833 --> 00:05:38,533 a good job 156 00:05:39,133 --> 00:05:42,266 in turning over African-American males into their camp. 157 00:05:42,266 --> 00:05:45,500 The numbers just seem to be on the incline on that. 158 00:05:45,500 --> 00:05:47,633 So historically, that would be. Yes. 159 00:05:47,633 --> 00:05:49,933 But it could also be a harbinger of what we're going 160 00:05:49,933 --> 00:05:53,633 to see across the state as well with people voting early. 161 00:05:53,633 --> 00:05:54,133 You know, 162 00:05:54,633 --> 00:05:55,900 the whole early voting thing has become 163 00:05:55,900 --> 00:05:58,000 a bit of an experiment for us. 164 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:00,800 This is the first big election where we've had this 165 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:02,866 and we've already saw at least one hiccup 166 00:06:02,866 --> 00:06:05,900 in the University of Michigan where we had a Chinese national 167 00:06:05,900 --> 00:06:08,800 go in, somehow get a ballot vote, 168 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:10,266 His vote is counted. 169 00:06:10,266 --> 00:06:12,100 And then he came back and they were like, 170 00:06:12,100 --> 00:06:13,700 you know what, You shouldn't have voted. 171 00:06:13,700 --> 00:06:16,300 Like, how many people are like that out there? 172 00:06:16,300 --> 00:06:19,100 And I think once all the hubbub, who wins and loses 173 00:06:19,100 --> 00:06:21,166 and so forth is all said and done, 174 00:06:21,166 --> 00:06:24,233 the Republicans are going to be bringing this up time 175 00:06:24,233 --> 00:06:26,000 and time again and saying, 176 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:26,266 you know, 177 00:06:26,566 --> 00:06:26,966 we got some holes 178 00:06:27,500 --> 00:06:28,600 in our election system here, that 179 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:30,733 because we've made this so accessible, 180 00:06:30,733 --> 00:06:32,833 it's become maybe too accessible. 181 00:06:32,833 --> 00:06:36,166 You can see why over the years in this town, Republicans 182 00:06:36,166 --> 00:06:39,466 in the legislature have opposed election reforms 183 00:06:39,466 --> 00:06:42,666 because now it now the Democrats have been fighting for, 184 00:06:42,666 --> 00:06:43,933 especially on absentee ballot. 185 00:06:43,933 --> 00:06:46,800 I can remembe we had every secretary of state 186 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:48,400 going back to Richard Austin, 187 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:51,433 including Republicans, Candice Miller and Terri Lynn Land, 188 00:06:51,433 --> 00:06:54,233 who said we need absentee voting, voting, 189 00:06:54,233 --> 00:06:56,033 and all the Republicans in the legislature 190 00:06:56,033 --> 00:06:58,033 would always laugh when they showed up and said, 191 00:06:58,033 --> 00:06:59,066 we're not going to do that. 192 00:06:59,066 --> 00:07:00,966 That' going to kill us. This absentee 193 00:07:00,966 --> 00:07:03,700 vote becomes a critical part of this election. 194 00:07:03,700 --> 00:07:04,500 Yeah, certainly. 195 00:07:04,900 --> 00:07:07,033 And I think, you know, from a clerk perspective, 196 00:07:07,033 --> 00:07:07,233 you know, 197 00:07:08,166 --> 00:07:09,400 having the absentee ballots, you know, does 198 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:11,700 take off some of the deluge of Election Day. 199 00:07:11,700 --> 00:07:15,066 I recall when early voting was being discussed 200 00:07:15,066 --> 00:07:18,600 and on the ballot initially that was where the major concern 201 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:20,433 was, that for local election officials, 202 00:07:20,433 --> 00:07:24,366 because it is just really hard to staff for that many days. 203 00:07:24,366 --> 00:07:26,166 It's hard to bring those people in. 204 00:07:26,166 --> 00:07:29,633 That said, on Election Day those votes do get tabulated it 205 00:07:29,633 --> 00:07:30,433 very quickly. 206 00:07:30,733 --> 00:07:32,466 You just press a button, it's already done. 207 00:07:32,466 --> 00:07:34,566 You just count them on Election day. 208 00:07:34,566 --> 00:07:37,566 So we have seen that absentee 209 00:07:37,566 --> 00:07:38,266 voting is 210 00:07:38,266 --> 00:07:39,733 just a hugely popular option 211 00:07:39,733 --> 00:07:41,866 ever since that became no reason absentee. 212 00:07:41,866 --> 00:07:44,200 I would expect that that continues. 213 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:45,566 We'll see that continue. 214 00:07:45,566 --> 00:07:47,500 Earl voting is kind of that wild card 215 00:07:47,500 --> 00:07:48,900 that we still have to see. 216 00:07:48,900 --> 00:07:51,166 You know, just how many voter take advantage of that option. 217 00:07:51,166 --> 00:07:53,333 Oh, we had 2.4 million on Thursday 218 00:07:53,333 --> 00:07:54,833 going into this Friday taping. 219 00:07:54,833 --> 00:07:55,700 So it'll be interesting. 220 00:07:55,700 --> 00:07:57,233 But it looks like Pennsylvania 221 00:07:57,233 --> 00:07:59,766 is going to keep us awake at night. Oh, yeah. 222 00:07:59,766 --> 00:08:03,400 Something about them needing four days to finish tallying 223 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:04,800 all the votes. That what the secretary of state said on 224 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:06,833 60 Minutes too. To that point. 225 00:08:06,833 --> 00:08:10,000 I mean, I think you brought it up earlier where, 226 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:12,266 you know, we we by and large in 2020 227 00:08:12,266 --> 00:08:13,466 knew even with Pennsylvania 228 00:08:13,466 --> 00:08:15,200 being the last state to count all of their votes, 229 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,166 we by and large knew that Biden won the election. 230 00:08:17,166 --> 00:08:18,866 So am I at all concerned 231 00:08:18,866 --> 00:08:20,166 that it's going to take them that long? 232 00:08:20,166 --> 00:08:23,666 No, I'd much rather be thorough and accurate than fast 233 00:08:23,666 --> 00:08:24,400 and wrong, 234 00:08:25,066 --> 00:08:27,900 God forbid, especially with past precedent being what it is. 235 00:08:27,900 --> 00:08:31,600 So you know, i stands to reason, though, that 236 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:34,966 it does open up an avenu for certain people to say, well, 237 00:08:34,966 --> 00:08:38,200 why is it taking so long whil why and further misinformation 238 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:40,500 or distrust in the election system could be sown. 239 00:08:40,500 --> 00:08:42,766 the slower it goes The antsier people get. 240 00:08:42,766 --> 00:08:45,433 We saw that in Michigan in 2020 in a big way. 241 00:08:45,433 --> 00:08:47,533 It's like, why is this not getting counted faster? 242 00:08:47,533 --> 00:08:49,133 You can say every reason you want. 243 00:08:49,133 --> 00:08:50,866 People want to see results quickly. 244 00:08:50,866 --> 00:08:51,466 Well, the Trump 245 00:08:52,066 --> 00:08:54,466 campaign has laid the foundation and it is firm. 246 00:08:54,466 --> 00:08:55,566 It's not ashphalt. 247 00:08:55,566 --> 00:08:58,633 It is cemen that they've got a vehicle to go 248 00:08:58,633 --> 00:09:01,700 into Pennsylvania and question the outcome of the election. 249 00:09:01,900 --> 00:09:02,200 Yeah. 250 00:09:03,033 --> 00:09:04,300 And then we also got to look in our own state, 251 00:09:04,300 --> 00:09:07,600 the city of Warren, where the clerk in Warren has said 252 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:09,400 we're not going to take advantage of the law 253 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:12,133 that allows us to pre process our absentee ballots. 254 00:09:12,133 --> 00:09:13,733 And, you know, as you've been reading 255 00:09:13,733 --> 00:09:15,633 off the stats and what I'm thinking is, 256 00:09:15,633 --> 00:09:17,300 all right how long will it take to count? 257 00:09:17,300 --> 00:09:20,466 Well, in Pennsylvania, they said it's going to take four days. 258 00:09:20,466 --> 00:09:21,600 Where as the clerk, 259 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:23,233 The clerk in Warren says, oh, we can pound it 260 00:09:23,233 --> 00:09:25,066 out in the night. You know, everything's fine. 261 00:09:25,066 --> 00:09:27,333 We've got a well-oiled machine here. Well, which is it? 262 00:09:27,333 --> 00:09:28,066 You know, 263 00:09:28,633 --> 00:09:30,633 is Warren got to figured out and the state of Pennsylvania 264 00:09:30,633 --> 00:09:31,533 has not. 265 00:09:31,733 --> 00:09:33,566 So I'm going to be keeping an eye on that. 266 00:09:33,566 --> 00:09:33,900 What are the 267 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:37,700 chances of a disturbance either during the election 268 00:09:37,700 --> 00:09:39,300 or after the election? What's that? 269 00:09:39,300 --> 00:09:41,333 Wouldn't the tea leaves point to 270 00:09:41,333 --> 00:09:46,300 I mean, I'm always an optimist, so I really want to hope that 271 00:09:46,300 --> 00:09:47,600 I appreciate optimism. 272 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:47,866 Yeah. 273 00:09:48,666 --> 00:09:49,066 I mean, a disturbance after the election, 274 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,666 I mean, we will always wonder, you know, on election night, 275 00:09:52,666 --> 00:09:54,100 you know, even if the race does get 276 00:09:54,100 --> 00:09:54,700 called, you know, 277 00:09:55,366 --> 00:09:57,300 unless it's very, very close, I can imagine, you know, 278 00:09:57,300 --> 00:09:59,200 we are going to see these rumblings. 279 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:01,000 We've seen that messaging coming, 280 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:04,200 especially from the Trum campaign about falsely claiming, 281 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:06,100 you know, Democrats want to cheat and everything else. 282 00:10:06,100 --> 00:10:08,166 We've seen that rhetoric. That's nothing new. 283 00:10:08,166 --> 00:10:11,333 And whatever comes of that, you know, remains to be seen. 284 00:10:11,333 --> 00:10:13,200 What gives me a little bit of optimism is 285 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:15,700 I have seen you know, some of these pushes, 286 00:10:15,700 --> 00:10:17,366 especially within conservative circles, 287 00:10:17,366 --> 00:10:19,766 to try to train people about the process. 288 00:10:19,766 --> 00:10:22,066 So you don't se repeats of what happened in 2020 289 00:10:22,066 --> 00:10:23,566 where people are causing disturbances 290 00:10:23,566 --> 00:10:25,966 while trying to watch absentee balloting end up 291 00:10:25,966 --> 00:10:28,033 being removed from the center or something like that. 292 00:10:28,033 --> 00:10:30,466 So I think that hopefully, at least with people 293 00:10:30,466 --> 00:10:32,366 understanding the process a little bit more, even if 294 00:10:32,366 --> 00:10:33,366 they don't like it 295 00:10:33,366 --> 00:10:35,900 that we'll see a few less disturbances 296 00:10:35,900 --> 00:10:36,866 and that will help hopefully 297 00:10:37,066 --> 00:10:40,666 cut down on some of these this immediate chaos. 298 00:10:40,666 --> 00:10:45,000 There is a publication calle SITE which monitors the chatter 299 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,233 and the woman that runs that speaking for herself, 300 00:10:48,233 --> 00:10:51,233 not for the organization, said the chatter is louder 301 00:10:51,433 --> 00:10:53,033 and it's more organized. 302 00:10:53,033 --> 00:10:55,600 And she would not be surprised if there were problems 303 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:58,500 to try to intimidate immigrants who were trying to vote 304 00:10:58,500 --> 00:11:00,866 during the election and stuff afterwards. 305 00:11:00,866 --> 00:11:03,600 What are you all hearing? Well, I haven't heard that. 306 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:04,500 I mean, that's interesting. 307 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:08,233 But to to Collins point, though, I am concerned about people 308 00:11:08,233 --> 00:11:09,600 thinking they're election experts 309 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:11,866 because they stay in a Holiday Inn Express. 310 00:11:11,866 --> 00:11:12,600 You know, 311 00:11:13,066 --> 00:11:14,700 everybody think they know everything these days 312 00:11:14,700 --> 00:11:16,100 because they got a Twitter account 313 00:11:16,100 --> 00:11:18,266 and they can pop off on social media. 314 00:11:18,266 --> 00:11:20,366 But you really know how an election works? 315 00:11:20,366 --> 00:11:23,200 You actually know how hard it is to cheat? 316 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,166 You know how hard it is to go and she cheating 317 00:11:26,366 --> 00:11:27,566 and it doesn't matter, does it? 318 00:11:27,566 --> 00:11:29,466 It doesn't matter because everyone's an expert. 319 00:11:29,466 --> 00:11:31,000 And so they can get these numbers 320 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:33,500 and they can say anything they want and get excited. 321 00:11:33,500 --> 00:11:37,266 And we saw that in 2020 and we're four years removed. 322 00:11:37,266 --> 00:11:39,166 And I'm glad. Collins an optimist. 323 00:11:39,166 --> 00:11:40,233 I'm not an optimist. 324 00:11:40,233 --> 00:11:41,700 I think we've just got more people 325 00:11:41,700 --> 00:11:43,433 who think they know what they're talking about. 326 00:11:43,433 --> 00:11:45,566 We've even got a state rep who's saying, 327 00:11:45,566 --> 00:11:48,533 hey, there' more people who have voted than, 328 00:11:48,533 --> 00:11:50,700 you know, people who are on the rolls. 329 00:11:50,700 --> 00:11:51,733 It's unbelievable. 330 00:11:51,733 --> 00:11:52,466 Yeah, okay. 331 00:11:52,466 --> 00:11:53,966 We'll do something about it. 332 00:11:53,966 --> 00:11:56,300 If you're a state rep and you're so passionate about it. 333 00:11:56,300 --> 00:11:59,133 But I mean, so this is just an example. 334 00:11:59,133 --> 00:12:01,033 I mean, this is somebody who's an official 335 00:12:01,033 --> 00:12:04,766 who is saying that I think it's just going to get worse. 336 00:12:04,766 --> 00:12:05,733 I mean, 337 00:12:06,166 --> 00:12:10,066 the idea that everybody nowadays has the ability to say that 338 00:12:10,066 --> 00:12:11,133 their elections experts, 339 00:12:11,133 --> 00:12:12,900 because they did a little bit of training, 340 00:12:12,900 --> 00:12:14,866 whether that's going to be a good or a bad thing. 341 00:12:14,866 --> 00:12:17,166 At the end of the day, I have no idea. 342 00:12:17,166 --> 00:12:18,900 We've seen, like you just pointed out, 343 00:12:18,900 --> 00:12:21,200 people getting on their pulpits and saying that they know 344 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:23,033 X and Y and Z about the election system 345 00:12:23,033 --> 00:12:25,166 despite the fact that they jus started looking into elections 346 00:12:25,166 --> 00:12:26,933 probably within like the last four years. 347 00:12:26,933 --> 00:12:30,500 At the same time, I am hoping though, that efforts to try and 348 00:12:30,500 --> 00:12:34,700 educate broader swaths of thi I mean, not just Michiganders, 349 00:12:34,700 --> 00:12:35,700 but Americans. 350 00:12:35,700 --> 00:12:36,900 You know, when we were talking about 351 00:12:36,900 --> 00:12:40,000 the TCF, the ballot dump that occurred late night 352 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:41,100 while we 353 00:12:41,366 --> 00:12:43,700 being in the election sphere that was not surprising to us. 354 00:12:43,700 --> 00:12:44,966 Of course, absentee ballots 355 00:12:44,966 --> 00:12:47,000 are going to continu to come in throughout the night. 356 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:49,700 That was not any cause for alarm for us, 357 00:12:49,700 --> 00:12:52,766 nor was the photos that you would see of wagons, 358 00:12:52,766 --> 00:12:56,100 which turned out to be a TV crew hauling in their cameras. 359 00:12:56,100 --> 00:13:00,200 So, you know we now know we're more educated, 360 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:02,366 I would argue, as a country about 361 00:13:02,366 --> 00:13:05,566 or I would hope more educate as a country about sort of the 362 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:10,366 general election processes that things won't be as picked 363 00:13:10,366 --> 00:13:13,466 apart as they were in 2020 or that the ability to cast out 364 00:13:13,466 --> 00:13:16,066 is a little harder. 365 00:13:16,066 --> 00:13:18,366 I'm also not going to get ahead of my skis, though. 366 00:13:18,366 --> 00:13:20,933 I think one interesting point to note as well, 367 00:13:20,933 --> 00:13:24,233 our election system i not the same as it was in 2020. 368 00:13:24,233 --> 00:13:27,566 There were additional pieces of legislation passed 369 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:31,733 that were intended to respond to some of these concerns. 370 00:13:31,733 --> 00:13:34,700 Now, whether this will be a stopgap, 371 00:13:34,700 --> 00:13:36,033 that remains to be seen. 372 00:13:36,033 --> 00:13:40,166 But Democrats in particular were really trying to make it 373 00:13:40,166 --> 00:13:43,833 so there wasn't this this tempest 374 00:13:43,833 --> 00:13:45,600 or this option for people, 375 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,600 especially with the reforms to the board of canvassers 376 00:13:48,833 --> 00:13:52,533 and election certification and even adding in 377 00:13:52,533 --> 00:13:55,066 some additional election securities 378 00:13:55,066 --> 00:13:57,033 around drop boxes or those kinds of things. 379 00:13:57,033 --> 00:14:00,833 So it hasn't remained stagnant, which is also interesting. 380 00:14:00,833 --> 00:14:04,266 That said, we're still, you know, 381 00:14:04,266 --> 00:14:07,533 the litigation from the results of the 2020 election 382 00:14:07,533 --> 00:14:10,433 and the response to it is still ongoing 383 00:14:10,433 --> 00:14:13,600 as voters are casting their ballots for an election 384 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:14,566 four years later. 385 00:14:14,566 --> 00:14:16,666 So it's not over. 386 00:14:16,666 --> 00:14:19,100 But what happened in the U.P. 387 00:14:19,100 --> 00:14:19,466 while 388 00:14:19,866 --> 00:14:23,333 up there we had a clerk in Red 389 00:14:23,333 --> 00:14:24,433 Rock River Township. 390 00:14:24,433 --> 00:14:25,866 I keep messing around with the 391 00:14:25,866 --> 00:14:29,933 Rock River Township, but so he and his deputy 392 00:14:29,933 --> 00:14:30,966 clerk had announced 393 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:33,533 that they or had indicated to the secretary of State 394 00:14:33,533 --> 00:14:37,433 that they had plans to hand count their ballots prior 395 00:14:37,433 --> 00:14:39,000 to a county canvass. 396 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,066 The Secretary of State vis a vis Elections 397 00:14:42,066 --> 00:14:44,333 Director Jonathan Broder said, You can't do that. 398 00:14:44,333 --> 00:14:45,766 That's against state election law. 399 00:14:45,766 --> 00:14:47,366 We have processes laid out 400 00:14:47,366 --> 00:14:48,500 and because of that, 401 00:14:48,500 --> 00:14:49,733 they were removed from their rolls 402 00:14:49,733 --> 00:14:53,333 and they were replaced by other area clerks. 403 00:14:53,333 --> 00:14:54,966 And I believe a county treasurer 404 00:14:54,966 --> 00:14:57,300 excuse me, a township treasurer. 405 00:14:57,300 --> 00:15:00,600 So to that point, I've already seen people 406 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,700 question, you know, oh, well is this election interference? 407 00:15:03,700 --> 00:15:07,066 And any, any move left, right, center 408 00:15:07,066 --> 00:15:10,800 regardless is going to be hyper scrutinized these coming days 409 00:15:11,066 --> 00:15:12,600 because everybody constantly 410 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:15,600 feels like the other side, quote unquote, is out to get them. 411 00:15:15,833 --> 00:15:19,266 But in this case this was just general election 412 00:15:19,266 --> 00:15:20,733 law needing to be followed. 413 00:15:20,733 --> 00:15:24,566 And nobody besides the clerk and the deputy clerk had 414 00:15:24,566 --> 00:15:26,766 come to this conclusion that a hand count was needed. 415 00:15:26,766 --> 00:15:28,600 So in the end, they were ultimately removed. 416 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:31,100 There's an old saying Don't confuse me with the facts. 417 00:15:31,100 --> 00:15:34,233 My mind is made up. 418 00:15:34,233 --> 00:15:36,133 Just on that point, though, it feels like 419 00:15:36,133 --> 00:15:37,566 and to what Lauren said earlier 420 00:15:37,566 --> 00:15:40,100 about Michigan's election laws changing, you know, 421 00:15:40,100 --> 00:15:42,833 it seems like the election misinformation at this point 422 00:15:42,833 --> 00:15:44,700 has been brought up in an election, integrity 423 00:15:44,700 --> 00:15:46,066 or not, election integrity circles 424 00:15:46,066 --> 00:15:49,933 by the circles trying to fight this election, disinformation 425 00:15:49,933 --> 00:15:50,633 where it feels like 426 00:15:50,633 --> 00:15:52,366 there's been asymmetrical 427 00:15:52,366 --> 00:15:56,466 warfare going on almost, where the conspiracy theories 428 00:15:56,466 --> 00:15:58,000 have been allowed to run rampant. 429 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,633 And then people that were just running elections, election 430 00:16:00,633 --> 00:16:01,633 administrators and everything, 431 00:16:01,633 --> 00:16:03,233 they're kind of caught flat footed. 432 00:16:03,233 --> 00:16:04,900 So, yes, we've seen, you know, these 433 00:16:04,900 --> 00:16:07,433 for the past four years, the conspiracy 434 00:16:07,433 --> 00:16:08,933 theories, election deniers, etc.. 435 00:16:08,933 --> 00:16:10,333 They've had more time to organize 436 00:16:10,333 --> 00:16:12,600 and make themselves feel like experts. 437 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:16,266 But at the same time, we've see election officials and clerics 438 00:16:16,266 --> 00:16:19,566 and the people that ru these things also have more time 439 00:16:19,566 --> 00:16:21,966 to try to fight misinformation and be more geared up 440 00:16:21,966 --> 00:16:24,100 and be more prepared for some of this backlash. 441 00:16:24,100 --> 00:16:25,633 You know, when you were talking about people's 442 00:16:25,633 --> 00:16:27,200 minds made up, it made me think of this 443 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:29,266 polling that we just did with Mitchell. 444 00:16:29,266 --> 00:16:33,433 72% of the people we polled said that their mind had been made 445 00:16:33,433 --> 00:16:36,966 up long ago, that this decision was very easy for them 446 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:40,533 and only 20% said they actually had to give it some thought 447 00:16:40,766 --> 00:16:43,233 and looked at both sides before casting their ballot. 448 00:16:43,233 --> 00:16:46,066 People's minds were made up a long, long time ago on this 449 00:16:46,066 --> 00:16:46,833 Bernie Porn 450 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:49,666 In his surve found that we have no undecided 451 00:16:49,666 --> 00:16:52,300 voters left in Michigan, 452 00:16:52,300 --> 00:16:54,133 Mitchell said 1%. 453 00:16:54,133 --> 00:16:54,500 All right. 454 00:16:55,166 --> 00:16:57,133 Well, we've been arguing over 1%. Okay. 455 00:16:57,133 --> 00:16:59,466 So his point is this. 456 00:16:59,466 --> 00:17:02,266 He thinks that the Kennedy factor and Mr. 457 00:17:02,266 --> 00:17:03,866 Kennedy got 5% of the poll 458 00:17:03,866 --> 00:17:05,566 could determine the winner in Michigan. 459 00:17:05,566 --> 00:17:07,000 Interesting angle on the story. 460 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,866 Any takers on that one? Yes, I think they could. 461 00:17:09,866 --> 00:17:10,900 People who are going to vote 462 00:17:10,900 --> 00:17:14,133 for John F or Robert F Kennedy anyway. 463 00:17:14,133 --> 00:17:17,733 Well, or are confused like his name is on the ballot. 464 00:17:17,733 --> 00:17:19,433 And even though he said I'm not a candidate, 465 00:17:19,433 --> 00:17:21,733 how many people heard that on the evening news? 466 00:17:21,733 --> 00:17:23,100 And why do you think that he tried 467 00:17:23,100 --> 00:17:26,100 to push so hard to fight to get his name removed 468 00:17:26,100 --> 00:17:27,566 once he dropped out of the race 469 00:17:27,566 --> 00:17:29,200 and threw his support behind Trump? 470 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:29,966 I think they're well 471 00:17:30,300 --> 00:17:31,666 aware of the fact that the longer his name 472 00:17:31,666 --> 00:17:32,666 or at this point 473 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:34,800 his name is not getting off the ballot, there is no way 474 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,066 there's even the 2%. Yeah, right. 475 00:17:37,066 --> 00:17:39,500 Two point something million people have already voted. 476 00:17:39,500 --> 00:17:40,633 He's not getting off the ballot. 477 00:17:40,633 --> 00:17:42,366 And yeah, that should be a cause of concern 478 00:17:42,366 --> 00:17:44,366 for the Trump campaign in a state where, 479 00:17:44,366 --> 00:17:46,933 like you said, 5% of the voters earlier, 480 00:17:46,933 --> 00:17:50,300 even if it's not five, if it's 3% in a close race, 481 00:17:50,300 --> 00:17:52,933 that that is the deciding factor could balance out. 482 00:17:52,933 --> 00:17:55,633 Jill Stein, though, you mean to be fair, about one or two. 483 00:17:55,633 --> 00:17:57,366 So the D's are not home free either. 484 00:17:57,366 --> 00:17:59,433 They could cross each other out. 485 00:17:59,433 --> 00:18:01,100 I mean, we do got a libertarian who hasn't run 486 00:18:01,100 --> 00:18:04,633 in as strong of a campaign as in the past either. 487 00:18:04,633 --> 00:18:08,033 So I don't know if that third party will make a difference. 488 00:18:08,033 --> 00:18:08,900 I think it will. 489 00:18:09,333 --> 00:18:12,500 I think about undecide voters, though, at this point. 490 00:18:12,766 --> 00:18:14,033 What's left to decide? 491 00:18:14,033 --> 00:18:16,300 The candidates have been in Michigan. 492 00:18:16,300 --> 00:18:18,566 You know they're basically living here. 493 00:18:18,566 --> 00:18:21,966 They were very familiar with most of their policies. 494 00:18:21,966 --> 00:18:22,900 They've debated. 495 00:18:23,100 --> 00:18:25,400 They they are sending mailers left and right. 496 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:27,333 There's very little left to decide at this point 497 00:18:27,333 --> 00:18:29,633 and who decides to come out and vote. 498 00:18:29,633 --> 00:18:32,466 They support in some of those folks simply will say, 499 00:18:32,466 --> 00:18:34,666 forget it, I'm not going to vote. 500 00:18:34,666 --> 00:18:35,366 Yeah, yeah. 501 00:18:35,366 --> 00:18:38,033 Certainly. US Senate race. 502 00:18:38,033 --> 00:18:39,533 Yes, the US Senate race. 503 00:18:39,533 --> 00:18:42,433 I mean, right now you're seein both sides project confidence. 504 00:18:42,433 --> 00:18:42,600 You know, 505 00:18:43,466 --> 00:18:43,800 you're hearing from the Rogers campaign 506 00:18:44,500 --> 00:18:45,266 that their internal polling has them up. 507 00:18:45,533 --> 00:18:46,666 You're getting from the second campaign 508 00:18:46,666 --> 00:18:49,266 that they also feel confident in this race. 509 00:18:49,266 --> 00:18:52,233 I've seen the ads recently you know, where Slotkin's making 510 00:18:52,233 --> 00:18:54,066 her, quot unquote, are not quote unquote. 511 00:18:54,066 --> 00:18:57,866 But to paraphrase her fina argument in this race, you know, 512 00:18:57,866 --> 00:19:02,800 it seems like both campaigns really are trying to push 513 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:03,866 their own. 514 00:19:03,866 --> 00:19:06,966 Well, I mean, to rephrase it 515 00:19:06,966 --> 00:19:07,333 I think 516 00:19:07,966 --> 00:19:09,333 it's a very cliche to say, you know, 517 00:19:09,333 --> 00:19:11,066 both campaigns are pushin their own vision for the future. 518 00:19:11,066 --> 00:19:11,333 Right. 519 00:19:12,500 --> 00:19:14,566 I've been seeing a lot of Roger ads where he's pushing culture 520 00:19:14,566 --> 00:19:15,100 war issues. 521 00:19:15,100 --> 00:19:15,900 You know, I think 522 00:19:15,900 --> 00:19:17,733 transgender athletes in sports, 523 00:19:17,733 --> 00:19:19,800 you know, even though that's a relatively small 524 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:20,666 part of the percentage. 525 00:19:20,666 --> 00:19:21,566 Meanwhile, 526 00:19:21,933 --> 00:19:23,933 Slotkin, she's kind of relying on the same message 527 00:19:23,933 --> 00:19:25,566 she's used throughout her whole career, 528 00:19:25,566 --> 00:19:29,300 trying to message to the middle, talking about not playing up 529 00:19:29,300 --> 00:19:31,266 her national security record or playing 530 00:19:31,266 --> 00:19:33,400 trying to help her mom with health care 531 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,233 in the final days of her mom's life, etc., 532 00:19:35,233 --> 00:19:37,000 She came back to that spot 533 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:38,300 at the end is in that interesting? 534 00:19:38,300 --> 00:19:39,166 It's been interesting 535 00:19:39,533 --> 00:19:42,000 watching sort of the evolution of their advertising, 536 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:44,333 especially because, you know, back 537 00:19:44,333 --> 00:19:46,766 a couple of months ago even a couple of weeks ago even, 538 00:19:46,766 --> 00:19:49,733 you'd see Rogers constantly trying to hit Slotkin on 539 00:19:49,733 --> 00:19:52,900 EVs, on China, on the fact that, 540 00:19:52,900 --> 00:19:57,166 oh, she's a farmer, but, you know, is she really? 541 00:19:57,166 --> 00:19:59,566 And then now recentl coming back home to this culture 542 00:19:59,566 --> 00:20:03,633 war issue of transgender athletes, it to me 543 00:20:03,633 --> 00:20:06,166 that seems like a candidate who's nervous. 544 00:20:06,166 --> 00:20:07,766 I don't look we passed precedent 545 00:20:07,766 --> 00:20:10,833 in Michigan suggests that those culture war niche 546 00:20:10,833 --> 00:20:13,733 issues are not well accepted by the broader electorate. 547 00:20:13,733 --> 00:20:15,666 I mean, we saw in '22 548 00:20:15,666 --> 00:20:18,500 gubernatorial candidat Tudor Dixon try and run on that, 549 00:20:18,500 --> 00:20:22,133 protecting girls sports and she lost by double digits 550 00:20:22,133 --> 00:20:23,133 percentage points. 551 00:20:23,133 --> 00:20:24,333 The people that are going to vote on 552 00:20:24,333 --> 00:20:26,500 that are already in the fold. And that's the thing. 553 00:20:26,500 --> 00:20:28,233 So who is this message speaking to? 554 00:20:28,233 --> 00:20:31,333 Because it's turning off your more centrist voters 555 00:20:31,333 --> 00:20:33,466 who might say why does this affect me at all? 556 00:20:33,466 --> 00:20:34,800 I don't care about this. 557 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,633 It's just the US Senate boys and girls. Right? 558 00:20:37,633 --> 00:20:40,466 And I was just going to say that's my last point, too. 559 00:20:40,466 --> 00:20:41,800 I mean, the polling that the Rogers 560 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,233 campaign has touted, where they're out ahead, 561 00:20:43,233 --> 00:20:44,866 this is also the only poll I believe 562 00:20:44,866 --> 00:20:49,433 I've seen in recent week at least, that has put him ahead 563 00:20:49,433 --> 00:20:52,000 and usually Slotkin is coming out on top. 564 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:54,233 So even more than that was our poll. 565 00:20:54,233 --> 00:20:55,900 You know what struck two points. 566 00:20:55,900 --> 00:20:57,033 You were struck there. 567 00:20:57,233 --> 00:20:59,400 Yeah, margin of error still within the margin of error. 568 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,400 But you know what I found mor interesting than Roger's up two 569 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,466 is that he's tracking with Trump for the first time. 570 00:21:05,466 --> 00:21:08,433 This is a poll that showed him tracking with Donald Trump 571 00:21:08,433 --> 00:21:11,133 because in prior polls he was running 3 to 5 572 00:21:11,133 --> 00:21:12,233 percentage points back. 573 00:21:12,233 --> 00:21:12,900 Now, Mitchell 574 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,633 did the first sample on a monday, did 500 results, 575 00:21:16,633 --> 00:21:19,066 and he he looked at that and he's like, 576 00:21:19,066 --> 00:21:20,800 Roger's is tracking with Trump finally. 577 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,533 And he was so concerned about it. He did it again. 578 00:21:23,533 --> 00:21:25,566 He did another 500 and it showed that. 579 00:21:25,566 --> 00:21:27,600 So I think that's the more interesting thing 580 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,433 that maybe Trump and Roger's fortunes are more aligned 581 00:21:30,433 --> 00:21:31,200 than we thought. 582 00:21:31,766 --> 00:21:34,000 Well, I had an original thought I think the other night. 583 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,066 If if, if, if Mr. 584 00:21:36,066 --> 00:21:39,000 Roger had not hooked his wagon to Mr. 585 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,000 Trump, would this race be closer? 586 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:43,866 I don't think you would have made it to the primary. 587 00:21:43,866 --> 00:21:45,600 Yeah I think that's the bigger thing. 588 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:46,900 He had to get over that hurdle. 589 00:21:46,900 --> 00:21:49,966 There is a huge secto of the Republican Party where, 590 00:21:49,966 --> 00:21:51,266 if you remember to Trump 591 00:21:51,266 --> 00:21:53,600 even a couple of years ago was bashing Rogers 592 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,666 for for being a RINO, for not sticking up for him. 593 00:21:56,666 --> 00:21:59,933 And now he needs his support because Trump is effectively 594 00:21:59,933 --> 00:22:01,866 a kingmaker in the Republican Party. 595 00:22:01,866 --> 00:22:04,833 I mean, hypothetically, mayb maybe it would have been closer. 596 00:22:04,833 --> 00:22:06,300 But he needed to do that. 597 00:22:06,300 --> 00:22:09,200 He needed to do that to get the base Republican support. 598 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:10,066 And fundamentally, 599 00:22:10,066 --> 00:22:10,900 I do think 600 00:22:11,533 --> 00:22:13,933 this race ultimately comes dow to how the top candidates play. 601 00:22:13,933 --> 00:22:15,333 It's a statewide race. 602 00:22:15,333 --> 00:22:15,800 You know, 603 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,766 while we have seen some polling that suggests Slotkin 604 00:22:18,766 --> 00:22:22,600 has pulled a little higher than the presidency, 605 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:24,833 I ultimately think, you know, 606 00:22:24,833 --> 00:22:27,600 who who wins Michigan will very likely 607 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:28,966 determine the Senate race as well. 608 00:22:28,966 --> 00:22:31,333 But we've got pretty tribalized too, I mean, 609 00:22:31,333 --> 00:22:32,566 tribalized as a country. 610 00:22:32,566 --> 00:22:35,433 And so it's hard to separate yourself 611 00:22:35,433 --> 00:22:37,633 as a Republican from Donald Trump. 612 00:22:37,633 --> 00:22:39,033 And likewise. 613 00:22:39,033 --> 00:22:41,900 Yeah, but you see littl he took the Trump endorsement. 614 00:22:41,900 --> 00:22:44,833 What if he started to walk that back as we thought? 615 00:22:44,833 --> 00:22:49,000 Is that's an option to get int the into the general election? 616 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,800 You know, Rogers ha when he was in the legislature, 617 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,566 this guy was not a you know, a bomb thrower. 618 00:22:54,566 --> 00:22:58,100 He knew how to work with other sides and kind of congenial. 619 00:22:58,100 --> 00:22:59,800 You wouldn't call him a super moderate, 620 00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:02,766 but he certainly wasn't a far right moderate. 621 00:23:02,766 --> 00:23:05,066 Maybe the original thought I just shouldn't have had it. 622 00:23:05,066 --> 00:23:06,566 But I guess, like at this point, 623 00:23:06,566 --> 00:23:09,333 I'm just separating yourself from Trump at this point 624 00:23:09,333 --> 00:23:11,966 with with Trump having this much popularity 625 00:23:11,966 --> 00:23:14,100 within what's left of the Republican Party, 626 00:23:14,100 --> 00:23:15,900 I think it's hard to do that sprint to the center 627 00:23:15,900 --> 00:23:18,033 that you've seen traditionally in past elections. 628 00:23:18,033 --> 00:23:20,366 All right. House elections down the road. 629 00:23:20,366 --> 00:23:22,066 How does he see House? 630 00:23:22,066 --> 00:23:23,200 I think, you know, 631 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,300 I started believing at the very beginning 632 00:23:25,300 --> 00:23:27,500 when Biden was the presumptive nominee, 633 00:23:27,500 --> 00:23:29,566 that the Republicans would take majority. 634 00:23:29,566 --> 00:23:32,033 Then Harris came in, injected some new enthusiasm. 635 00:23:32,033 --> 00:23:33,700 I walked that back. 636 00:23:33,700 --> 00:23:36,833 But now I'm more in line to think that Republicans 637 00:23:36,833 --> 00:23:38,500 will probably take majority. 638 00:23:38,500 --> 00:23:40,466 The juice wasn't there on. 639 00:23:40,466 --> 00:23:43,933 I think Kamala Harris's momentum didn't crest over 640 00:23:43,933 --> 00:23:45,833 50% for a long period of time. 641 00:23:45,833 --> 00:23:49,266 And you got to remember tha the seats that the Democrats won 642 00:23:49,266 --> 00:23:52,233 in 2022 was because abortion was on the ballot. 643 00:23:52,233 --> 00:23:55,066 And Gretchen Whitmer blew out Tudor Dixon by ten points. 644 00:23:55,066 --> 00:23:57,133 And both of those factors aren't in this one. 645 00:23:57,133 --> 00:23:58,600 But if you talk to Rick Snyder, 646 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,233 he is just madder than a wet hen. No, he doesn't get mad. 647 00:24:01,233 --> 00:24:03,433 I scratch that. He doesn't. 648 00:24:03,433 --> 00:24:04,966 I'm sorry, Governor. 649 00:24:04,966 --> 00:24:07,800 He was concerned tha the Democrats are still playing 650 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,133 the abortion issue in local House races. 651 00:24:10,133 --> 00:24:12,866 And his argument is this issue has been settled. 652 00:24:12,866 --> 00:24:14,833 But, Governor, with all due respect, 653 00:24:14,833 --> 00:24:17,300 the Democrats say, no, it's not been settled. Right. 654 00:24:17,300 --> 00:24:21,300 And that has been a huge theme, constantly hammering 655 00:24:21,300 --> 00:24:23,033 Republican candidates on abortion 656 00:24:23,033 --> 00:24:24,633 and all of these competitive races 657 00:24:24,633 --> 00:24:26,633 they wouldn't be doing if it wasn't working. 658 00:24:26,633 --> 00:24:27,966 Yes, certainly it's it's 659 00:24:27,966 --> 00:24:31,733 still such an issue of concern at the national level. 660 00:24:31,733 --> 00:24:35,033 So even though the argument has been 661 00:24:35,233 --> 00:24:37,500 from the conservative side that it's been decided 662 00:24:37,500 --> 00:24:39,400 in Michigan, that the people voted, 663 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:41,700 the people voted, the people have decided. 664 00:24:41,700 --> 00:24:44,600 But Democrats make a compelling case 665 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,566 that, you know, if the pendulum were to swing the other way, 666 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,266 that Republicans who have long said 667 00:24:50,266 --> 00:24:53,700 that they were anti-abortion would probably look to restrict 668 00:24:53,700 --> 00:24:54,533 some of those rights. 669 00:24:55,066 --> 00:24:57,400 And I think you're still hearing that from a lot of Democrats 670 00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,566 in terms of, you know, who it's all such a toss up. 671 00:25:00,566 --> 00:25:02,033 Right. But it comes back. 672 00:25:02,033 --> 00:25:03,866 I keep looking back to those numbers. 673 00:25:03,866 --> 00:25:04,833 In 2022, 674 00:25:05,266 --> 00:25:08,700 when Whitmer was ahead by tha much, it was still that close. 675 00:25:08,700 --> 00:25:12,333 And if Trump does well in a lot of these areas, 676 00:25:12,333 --> 00:25:15,233 like downriver, MacComb, tha that could be the death knell. 677 00:25:15,233 --> 00:25:17,333 Which way does the house go? 678 00:25:17,333 --> 00:25:19,633 I am goin to be so honest at this point. 679 00:25:19,633 --> 00:25:21,100 It is a toss up for me. 680 00:25:21,100 --> 00:25:22,966 I want to say that 681 00:25:22,966 --> 00:25:26,466 especially with the fundraisin that Democrats have been doing, 682 00:25:26,466 --> 00:25:29,066 God knows that I have seen ad after, after 683 00:25:29,066 --> 00:25:31,000 and after ad for every candidate, 684 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,966 including those who aren't eve I'm not even in their district. 685 00:25:34,233 --> 00:25:36,833 So they definitely got the momentum there. 686 00:25:36,833 --> 00:25:38,600 My big question is, as they continue 687 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:42,466 to push the abortion as an issue issue, 688 00:25:42,466 --> 00:25:43,266 whether or not that's 689 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:45,766 just kind of getting lost in all of the noise, 690 00:25:45,766 --> 00:25:47,700 you know, you're constantly hearing it. 691 00:25:47,700 --> 00:25:49,133 Democrats are doing a heck of a job 692 00:25:49,133 --> 00:25:51,833 in making sure that that's their standard message. 693 00:25:51,833 --> 00:25:53,966 But are people actually receiving it 694 00:25:53,966 --> 00:25:55,566 when Republicans are pushing so hard on the fact 695 00:25:55,566 --> 00:25:56,533 it's been decided? 696 00:25:56,833 --> 00:25:59,166 I would say that Republicans are spending a lot of time 697 00:25:59,166 --> 00:26:00,700 in the districts where these people are. 698 00:26:00,700 --> 00:26:02,966 Meanwhile, Democrat have a lot of seats to defend. 699 00:26:02,966 --> 00:26:04,100 Not a lot they're trying to flip. 700 00:26:04,100 --> 00:26:06,233 I think Republicans have the advantage. 701 00:26:06,233 --> 00:26:08,833 Should we erase this tape? 702 00:26:08,833 --> 00:26:09,766 Only if we're wrong. 703 00:26:09,766 --> 00:26:11,366 All of that like that. 704 00:26:11,366 --> 00:26:13,566 You ought to go into TV news. 705 00:26:13,566 --> 00:26:14,766 Thank you all very much. 706 00:26:14,766 --> 00:26:16,100 Good, good program. 707 00:26:16,100 --> 00:26:18,933 If you haven't voted, why don't you get it in the game? 708 00:26:18,933 --> 00:26:20,966 Everybody else is already done it. 709 00:26:20,966 --> 00:26:24,833 Next week, a recap of wha y'all did should be interesting. 710 00:26:24,833 --> 00:26:26,666 See ya then. 711 00:26:26,666 --> 00:26:28,500 Production of Off the Record is made possible 712 00:26:28,733 --> 00:26:31,900 in part by Martin Waymire, a full service 713 00:26:31,900 --> 00:26:33,933 strategic communications agency 714 00:26:33,933 --> 00:26:36,233 partnering with clients through public relations, 715 00:26:36,233 --> 00:26:39,466 digital marketing and public policy engagement. 716 00:26:39,466 --> 00:26:42,633 learn more at Martinwaymire.com. 717 00:26:42,633 --> 00:26:46,333 For more off the record, visit WKAR.org 718 00:26:46,333 --> 00:26:48,700 Michigan public television stations have contributed 719 00:26:48,700 --> 00:26:50,700 to the production costs of off the record.