1
00:01:40,133 --> 00:01:41,933
Funding for “To the Contrary,”

2
00:01:41,933 --> 00:01:45,666
provided by:

3
00:01:51,433 --> 00:01:53,533
Coming up on “To the Contrary”:

4
00:01:53,533 --> 00:01:56,700
Gender is one of the defining 
fault lines of our politics

5
00:01:56,700 --> 00:01:57,066
today.

6
00:01:57,633 --> 00:01:58,900
You know, 
one of the starkest contrasts

7
00:01:58,900 --> 00:02:02,233
right now is when you 
talk about “cat lady”

8
00:02:02,233 --> 00:02:05,233
and some of the comments 
that Trump and Vance make.

9
00:02:05,233 --> 00:02:08,233
Women 
find it very disrespectful.

10
00:02:27,066 --> 00:02:28,633
Hello, I'm Bonnie Erbé.

11
00:02:28,633 --> 00:02:31,800
Welcome to “To the Contrary,” 
a weekly discussion of news

12
00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,866
and social trends from diverse 
perspectives.

13
00:02:35,133 --> 00:02:37,433
We are in the final month 
of the campaign.

14
00:02:37,433 --> 00:02:41,900
And women voters and issues 
affecting women of all races

15
00:02:41,900 --> 00:02:45,500
and of all diverse types 
are dominating the campaign.

16
00:02:45,866 --> 00:02:47,600
With us 
to sort through the noise

17
00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:50,700
and help everyone understand 
what lies ahead,

18
00:02:50,700 --> 00:02:52,166
are Democratic pollster,

19
00:02:52,166 --> 00:02:55,633
Linda Lake of Lake Research, 
and Amanda Iovino,

20
00:02:55,866 --> 00:02:59,633
Republican 
pollster of WPA Intel.

21
00:02:59,633 --> 00:03:02,166
Welcome to you, both. 
Thank you so much for having us.

22
00:03:02,166 --> 00:03:04,366
And it's great to be on here 
with Amanda.

23
00:03:04,366 --> 00:03:06,500
Yeah, it's great to be on here. 
Thank you.

24
00:03:06,500 --> 00:03:07,666
All right. Terrific.

25
00:03:07,666 --> 00:03:10,900
And let's just jump 
right in by asking you

26
00:03:11,166 --> 00:03:14,100
how big an issue is gender 
in this campaign.

27
00:03:14,100 --> 00:03:16,800
The coalition that Harris 
has put together

28
00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:18,966
is different 
than the Biden coalition.

29
00:03:18,966 --> 00:03:21,233
There is a bigger gender gap.

30
00:03:21,233 --> 00:03:23,700
She has created 
an incredible enthusiasm

31
00:03:23,700 --> 00:03:26,966
among pro-abortion 
voters, even more than

32
00:03:28,133 --> 00:03:28,700
Joe Biden

33
00:03:29,100 --> 00:03:31,700
had done, registering 
a lot of young people,

34
00:03:32,433 --> 00:03:34,966
registering 
a lot of women of color,

35
00:03:34,966 --> 00:03:37,466
so the gender of the voters 
and the gender

36
00:03:37,466 --> 00:03:38,633
of the issues, i.e.

37
00:03:38,633 --> 00:03:40,966
abortion, although I would argue 
abortion is a man

38
00:03:40,966 --> 00:03:43,400
and a woman's issue, 
and the gender of the candidate

39
00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:44,966
are all making a big difference.

40
00:03:44,966 --> 00:03:47,966
Yeah, I think from a voter 
perspective, it's a major issue,

41
00:03:47,966 --> 00:03:50,233
you know, along with education.

42
00:03:50,233 --> 00:03:52,200
And of course, partisanship. 
Gender is one of

43
00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,166
the defining fault lines 
of our politics today.

44
00:03:56,066 --> 00:03:59,100
Gender determines 
how campaigns, news

45
00:03:59,100 --> 00:04:01,166
and even issues are perceived.

46
00:04:01,166 --> 00:04:02,933
But what's been interesting is

47
00:04:02,933 --> 00:04:06,000
that gender is less of an issue 
within the campaigns itself,

48
00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:10,100
particularly relative to 2016 
and even 2020.

49
00:04:10,433 --> 00:04:12,066
On the Democratic side, 
certainly,

50
00:04:12,066 --> 00:04:14,366
I think the media has learned 
some of its lessons

51
00:04:14,366 --> 00:04:16,233
and Harris has as well.

52
00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:19,900
Frankly, what Republican women

53
00:04:19,900 --> 00:04:22,933
candidates have frankly learned 
or knew intuitively

54
00:04:22,933 --> 00:04:27,366
that playing the gender identity 
game doesn't help with voters

55
00:04:27,366 --> 00:04:29,233
as much as they might want it 
to. That

56
00:04:29,233 --> 00:04:31,733
really focusing on the issues 
is what voters want to hear.

57
00:04:31,733 --> 00:04:34,733
Kamala Harris 
has not been raising gender,

58
00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:38,700
really, or race for that matter 
very much, if at all.

59
00:04:39,300 --> 00:04:41,500
Is that the best way for her 
to campaign?

60
00:04:41,500 --> 00:04:43,500
Trump keeps bringing it up.

61
00:04:43,500 --> 00:04:45,300
I think that it is 
the smartest way.

62
00:04:45,300 --> 00:04:48,333
I think it's a new generation 
of leadership.

63
00:04:48,333 --> 00:04:50,066
It's a new generation 
of feminism,

64
00:04:50,066 --> 00:04:50,933
which, believe it or not,

65
00:04:51,266 --> 00:04:53,333
is still a very popular word 
with people.

66
00:04:53,333 --> 00:04:56,333
And two-thirds of women 
describe themselves as feminism.

67
00:04:57,033 --> 00:04:59,933
But we don't have to be told 
she's a woman candidate.

68
00:04:59,933 --> 00:05:01,266
We can see she's a 
woman candidate.

69
00:05:01,266 --> 00:05:04,100
We don't have to be told 
she's a woman of color.

70
00:05:04,100 --> 00:05:05,233
We can see that.

71
00:05:05,233 --> 00:05:09,033
And her personal story 
and her agenda reflect

72
00:05:09,300 --> 00:05:11,733
some of these issues. 
She's made much more prominent,

73
00:05:11,733 --> 00:05:13,900
for example, 
the caregiving agenda.

74
00:05:13,900 --> 00:05:18,033
She's very, very comfortable 
and very identified with freedom

75
00:05:18,033 --> 00:05:20,400
to have an abortion, 
to make your own decisions,

76
00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:22,100
personal, medical decisions.

77
00:05:22,100 --> 00:05:25,033
So she's telling it in 
an integrated way.

78
00:05:25,033 --> 00:05:27,300
It is part 
and parcel of who she is.

79
00:05:27,300 --> 00:05:30,133
She doesn't need to wave 
a banner around.

80
00:05:30,133 --> 00:05:32,733
It's something that is evident 
between the two candidates.

81
00:05:32,733 --> 00:05:34,733
It's not something that 
necessarily needs to be said.

82
00:05:34,733 --> 00:05:38,633
And like I mentioned, it's 
something that Republican women

83
00:05:38,633 --> 00:05:41,200
candidates have been dealing 
with for a long time.

84
00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:43,666
And it's nice to kind of see 
both sides

85
00:05:43,666 --> 00:05:45,200
kind of coming 
to the same conclusion.

86
00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:48,100
When you interview men 
versus women,

87
00:05:48,100 --> 00:05:49,900
do you talk to them differently?

88
00:05:49,900 --> 00:05:53,200
Do they respond 
to different issues

89
00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:57,366
or even emotional 
themes differently?

90
00:05:57,366 --> 00:05:59,633
We ask them mostly 
the same questions.

91
00:05:59,633 --> 00:06:00,266
It's very rare

92
00:06:00,566 --> 00:06:02,066
that we'll ask them 
different questions,

93
00:06:02,066 --> 00:06:03,366
but how they respond to 
the questions

94
00:06:03,366 --> 00:06:05,200
is definitely different.

95
00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:07,333
The messages that they react to 
is different.

96
00:06:07,333 --> 00:06:10,300
The issues that they highlight 
are often different.

97
00:06:10,300 --> 00:06:11,933
The language 
that they use to respond

98
00:06:11,933 --> 00:06:15,566
when we ask them an open ended 
question is different.

99
00:06:15,566 --> 00:06:17,266
And all of that 
is kind of factored

100
00:06:17,266 --> 00:06:19,566
into our analysis 
and the strategic

101
00:06:19,566 --> 00:06:21,566
kind of insight that we provide 
to the campaigns

102
00:06:21,566 --> 00:06:22,700
then is different.

103
00:06:22,700 --> 00:06:24,700
But are there, before 
we get to Celinda,

104
00:06:24,700 --> 00:06:26,266
are there words, Amanda,

105
00:06:26,266 --> 00:06:29,533
that you would use 
with polling women that elicit

106
00:06:29,533 --> 00:06:32,166
a better response 
from your perspective

107
00:06:32,166 --> 00:06:33,266
that you should use

108
00:06:33,266 --> 00:06:35,833
and those that you shouldn't use 
because they don't?

109
00:06:35,833 --> 00:06:39,333
When I poll, I typically look 
for what a candidate is going

110
00:06:39,333 --> 00:06:42,566
to say and use the words 
that the candidate is going to

111
00:06:42,566 --> 00:06:45,700
want to use to talk to voters 
and see how voters respond

112
00:06:45,700 --> 00:06:47,566
to that, as opposed to looking

113
00:06:47,566 --> 00:06:50,633
to see what a voter of either 
gender is going to want to hear.

114
00:06:50,633 --> 00:06:53,100
Sometimes 
people will respond differently,

115
00:06:53,100 --> 00:06:55,233
whether they're being 
interviewed by a man or a woman.

116
00:06:56,033 --> 00:06:59,000
So, for example, on the abortion 
issue, women

117
00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:02,333
who are talking to women 
before the Dobbs decision

118
00:07:02,666 --> 00:07:06,033
were more pro-choice than women 
who were talking to men.

119
00:07:06,733 --> 00:07:08,233
Which is exactly the opposite

120
00:07:08,233 --> 00:07:09,800
of what 
a lot of us thought it would be.

121
00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:12,400
And when we went back 
and asked people

122
00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,366
why they had those attitudes, 
they said, “Well,

123
00:07:15,366 --> 00:07:16,000
when I'm talking

124
00:07:16,466 --> 00:07:19,566
to women I feel like 
I can express my ambivalence.

125
00:07:19,900 --> 00:07:20,466
I can say

126
00:07:21,066 --> 00:07:23,533
maybe I wouldn't get an abortion 
or I worry about this or

127
00:07:23,766 --> 00:07:25,233
I'm conflicted by this.

128
00:07:25,233 --> 00:07:27,266
When I'm talking to a man, 
I don't want him

129
00:07:27,266 --> 00:07:28,800
to think it's his decision,

130
00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:31,700
so I just tell him 
I'm pro-choice.”

131
00:07:31,700 --> 00:07:34,166
So there are some differences 
like that.

132
00:07:34,166 --> 00:07:36,033
You know, 
one of the starkest contrasts

133
00:07:36,033 --> 00:07:39,300
right now is when you talk 
about “cat lady”

134
00:07:39,300 --> 00:07:42,666
and some of the comments 
that Trump and Vance make, women

135
00:07:42,666 --> 00:07:44,800
find it very disrespectful 
and divisive.

136
00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:45,766
They don't like it.

137
00:07:45,766 --> 00:07:47,466
They don't want their daughters 
to hear it.

138
00:07:47,466 --> 00:07:49,833
Men are like, “Well, 
I don't like it.

139
00:07:49,833 --> 00:07:51,133
But that's Trump being Trump.

140
00:07:51,133 --> 00:07:53,966
Sometimes Trump doesn't know 
when to shut up.

141
00:07:53,966 --> 00:07:57,233
He should just not talk 
because his policies are good,

142
00:07:57,233 --> 00:07:58,366
but his rhetoric isnt.”

143
00:07:58,366 --> 00:08:00,700
So you do get gender 
differences

144
00:08:00,700 --> 00:08:02,800
in terms of responses 
to different things

145
00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:04,200
that candidates will be saying.

146
00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:05,733
How does that play

147
00:08:05,733 --> 00:08:08,633
with Republican voters 
who are supporting Trump?

148
00:08:08,633 --> 00:08:12,666
The fact that the women, 
particularly female Republicans,

149
00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,100
that they don't want 
their daughters hearing

150
00:08:15,100 --> 00:08:17,066
about what he's saying 
and what he's doing,

151
00:08:17,066 --> 00:08:19,300
what do evangelical women 
think about this?

152
00:08:19,300 --> 00:08:19,666
I think a.

153
00:08:20,366 --> 00:08:24,066
Lot of that is kind of prebaked 
into who Trump is.

154
00:08:24,066 --> 00:08:26,200
Voters, 
especially Republican voters,

155
00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:29,133
are very much 
focused on Trump's policies.

156
00:08:30,100 --> 00:08:30,866
And they

157
00:08:31,133 --> 00:08:33,733
believe strongly 
that the four years under Trump

158
00:08:33,733 --> 00:08:36,633
were significantly better, 
especially economically,

159
00:08:36,633 --> 00:08:38,333
than they have been under 
the last four years

160
00:08:38,333 --> 00:08:40,200
with the Biden-Harris 
administration.

161
00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,666
And that's really 
what they're looking forward to

162
00:08:42,666 --> 00:08:45,100
under a second Trump 
administration.

163
00:08:45,100 --> 00:08:48,433
So the rhetoric, it 
kind of goes back to,

164
00:08:48,433 --> 00:08:51,366
you know, the 2016 campaign, 
they didn't.

165
00:08:51,366 --> 00:08:52,833
There are a lot 
of Republican voters

166
00:08:52,833 --> 00:08:55,400
that don't necessarily 
like the way

167
00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:57,933
Trump talks about things, 
but there are a lot of voters

168
00:08:57,933 --> 00:09:02,100
that for whom 
the way Trump talks about issues

169
00:09:02,100 --> 00:09:06,066
is a majority of his appeal, 
especially for voters

170
00:09:06,266 --> 00:09:09,166
without college degrees, men 
without college degrees.

171
00:09:09,166 --> 00:09:11,233
They like that 
he just tells it like it is.

172
00:09:11,233 --> 00:09:12,233
And that is a strong,

173
00:09:12,233 --> 00:09:15,500
his authenticity is a big part 
of his appeal.

174
00:09:15,500 --> 00:09:16,266
The media have

175
00:09:16,566 --> 00:09:20,233
given a lot of place, Celinda, 
to the Project 2025

176
00:09:20,233 --> 00:09:22,800
agenda put forward 
by the Heritage Foundation.

177
00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:24,666
But using all staff,

178
00:09:24,666 --> 00:09:28,200
former staffers and people close 
to former President Trump.

179
00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:31,433
Are women 
scared at all by that agenda?

180
00:09:31,433 --> 00:09:32,100
So originally,

181
00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,300
people had no idea what the 2025 
agenda was,

182
00:09:35,300 --> 00:09:36,933
and I really credit 
the Democrats

183
00:09:36,933 --> 00:09:38,533
and their allies 
for defining it.

184
00:09:38,533 --> 00:09:41,766
And now you have 50 
some odd percent of the voters

185
00:09:41,766 --> 00:09:43,200
who feel negatively toward it,

186
00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:46,833
and only about 11% of the voters 
who feel positive about it.

187
00:09:47,500 --> 00:09:51,233
Women were flabbergasted 
that it included more

188
00:09:51,233 --> 00:09:52,566
action on abortion.

189
00:09:52,566 --> 00:09:55,333
They thought, haven't 
you done enough damage already?

190
00:09:55,333 --> 00:09:56,633
But you're going after birth 
control,

191
00:09:56,633 --> 00:10:00,000
medication, abortion, 
criminalizing providers?

192
00:10:00,866 --> 00:10:03,333
Women also disliked intensely

193
00:10:03,333 --> 00:10:06,333
the cutting of children's 
programs and Social Security.

194
00:10:06,633 --> 00:10:09,633
They disliked doing away 
with the Department of Education

195
00:10:09,933 --> 00:10:12,366
and women, 
one of the biggest

196
00:10:12,366 --> 00:10:13,000
Are you talking

197
00:10:13,466 --> 00:10:17,266
talking Democratic and 
Republican women or undecided

198
00:10:17,266 --> 00:10:17,933
voters?

199
00:10:18,133 --> 00:10:21,000
Republican women 
but Democratic women

200
00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:23,900
and independent 
and swing women.

201
00:10:23,900 --> 00:10:27,800
So we've done 
a good job of defining 2025

202
00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:30,866
agenda 
in a way that alienates women.

203
00:10:30,866 --> 00:10:33,266
The hardest thing 
has been to convince people

204
00:10:33,266 --> 00:10:36,466
that Trump 
was really for it

205
00:10:36,466 --> 00:10:40,266
and that Trump was behind it, 
and that has

206
00:10:40,266 --> 00:10:41,400
been a bit of a struggle.

207
00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,266
But I think that echoing 
as you did, that

208
00:10:44,266 --> 00:10:47,266
his aides and his advisers 
wrote a lot of it.

209
00:10:47,266 --> 00:10:50,533
People think this is the MAGA 
agenda, and he's following

210
00:10:50,533 --> 00:10:54,300
the MAGA agenda now, which 
they don't necessarily like.

211
00:10:54,300 --> 00:10:56,200
So it's been a big negative.

212
00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:57,700
The biggest challenge

213
00:10:57,700 --> 00:11:00,766
that the Democrats face, 
that the vice president face

214
00:11:00,766 --> 00:11:02,133
is getting more credibility

215
00:11:02,133 --> 00:11:04,933
and increasing 
credibility on the economy.

216
00:11:04,933 --> 00:11:06,300
And just like she gave

217
00:11:06,300 --> 00:11:09,533
speeches in the past, she's been 
emphasizing her proposals.

218
00:11:09,833 --> 00:11:11,166
She knows that, too.

219
00:11:11,166 --> 00:11:12,566
But that's the biggest challenge

220
00:11:12,566 --> 00:11:15,166
for us, 
for male and female voters.

221
00:11:15,166 --> 00:11:16,900
Now, what do you think 
the biggest challenges

222
00:11:16,900 --> 00:11:19,833
for Trump with male and female 
voters, Amanda. Getting

223
00:11:19,833 --> 00:11:22,966
that enthusiasm up among men 
18 to 54.

224
00:11:23,500 --> 00:11:24,833
That's 
been lagging a little bit.

225
00:11:24,833 --> 00:11:27,900
And that's, I think, why 
you're seeing him kind of go out

226
00:11:27,900 --> 00:11:31,266
and talking to different 
social media influencers.

227
00:11:32,666 --> 00:11:34,833
That's one of the big keys.

228
00:11:34,833 --> 00:11:36,133
And then reaching out to women,

229
00:11:36,133 --> 00:11:39,133
which I think he is doing, 
perhaps,

230
00:11:40,166 --> 00:11:43,466
in his own way and artfully, 
but really emphasizing

231
00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:45,833
that safety elements

232
00:11:45,833 --> 00:11:49,100
and, of course, the economic 
messages and really emphasizing,

233
00:11:49,700 --> 00:11:50,300
how much better

234
00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:52,533
the economy was under him 
and how much

235
00:11:52,533 --> 00:11:54,966
how poorly it's been under 
the Biden-Harris administration.

236
00:11:54,966 --> 00:11:58,266
How do you think Republican 
women have responded to him

237
00:11:58,266 --> 00:12:02,666
recently, telling them that 
he would be their protector,

238
00:12:03,833 --> 00:12:06,166
and that he that once 
he got back

239
00:12:06,166 --> 00:12:09,233
into the White House, 
if he does,

240
00:12:09,233 --> 00:12:12,433
that women wouldn't 
even be thinking about abortion?

241
00:12:12,433 --> 00:12:16,200
I kind of, I was a little 
confused by that, to be honest.

242
00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:20,033
You know what he was trying 
to say in his own way,

243
00:12:20,033 --> 00:12:23,033
was that his economic 
and immigration and safety

244
00:12:23,033 --> 00:12:26,600
policies are clearly better 
for women than Harris'.

245
00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:29,866
And that these issues 
are just as much women's issues

246
00:12:29,866 --> 00:12:30,633
as abortion.

247
00:12:31,866 --> 00:12:32,700
You know, could he have

248
00:12:32,700 --> 00:12:35,800
said it 
more like a typical politician?

249
00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:37,700
More rehearsed, of course.

250
00:12:37,700 --> 00:12:40,033
But this is Donald Trump 
that we're talking about.

251
00:12:40,033 --> 00:12:43,066
And, frankly, his inability 
to be anything except who

252
00:12:43,066 --> 00:12:46,066
he is is part of his appeal.

253
00:12:46,300 --> 00:12:48,566
I think the segment of voters 
that are still reachable

254
00:12:48,566 --> 00:12:49,766
by his campaign,

255
00:12:49,766 --> 00:12:52,033
who haven't made up his mind, 
knew exactly

256
00:12:52,033 --> 00:12:54,866
what he was talking about 
and understood everything.

257
00:12:54,866 --> 00:12:57,400
What do you both think 
the down ballot

258
00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,566
effect of each of the candidates 
is going to be starting

259
00:13:00,566 --> 00:13:01,833
with you, Amanda,

260
00:13:01,833 --> 00:13:05,400
though on Republican 
Senate candidates, on House

261
00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,100
candidates 
and gubernatorial candidates,

262
00:13:08,100 --> 00:13:09,100
how's that going to work?

263
00:13:09,100 --> 00:13:11,966
It's very much a campaign 
by campaign issue.

264
00:13:11,966 --> 00:13:14,966
I think there are some Senate 
candidates, especially,

265
00:13:14,966 --> 00:13:16,966
who have been 
able to define themselves,

266
00:13:17,933 --> 00:13:20,133
separately 
from the presidential,

267
00:13:20,133 --> 00:13:23,233
and those will likely have

268
00:13:24,566 --> 00:13:26,600
Republican candidates 
might be able to overperform

269
00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:29,933
Democrats might be able to 
overperform by a point or two.

270
00:13:30,300 --> 00:13:33,300
Incumbency will 
definitely matter there as well.

271
00:13:33,700 --> 00:13:35,933
And House 
candidates will be the same way,

272
00:13:35,933 --> 00:13:37,966
just to probably 
a slightly lesser effect.

273
00:13:37,966 --> 00:13:40,600
There's a lot of talk 
or there was about

274
00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:43,733
the gubernatorial candidate 
in North Carolina, Robinson

275
00:13:43,733 --> 00:13:46,900
dragging Trump down.

276
00:13:46,900 --> 00:13:50,566
Did you think that's what was 
going to happen if he stayed on?

277
00:13:50,566 --> 00:13:53,566
It did look to be the case 
among independents,

278
00:13:53,833 --> 00:13:57,166
but in some initial 
polling back in August.

279
00:13:57,166 --> 00:14:01,466
But there's plenty of time 
for things to change.

280
00:14:01,466 --> 00:14:02,700
And I think it's been 
pretty clear

281
00:14:02,700 --> 00:14:05,700
that Trump has kind of denounced 
him and

282
00:14:05,900 --> 00:14:08,233
tried to put as much separation

283
00:14:08,233 --> 00:14:10,700
between himself 
and that candidate as possible.

284
00:14:10,700 --> 00:14:11,933
Well, I think that there

285
00:14:11,933 --> 00:14:14,300
and the Robinson case 
is a good example.

286
00:14:14,300 --> 00:14:16,900
There's the Trump effect on down 
ballot races.

287
00:14:16,900 --> 00:14:20,866
And then there's the down ballot 
effect on Trump.

288
00:14:20,866 --> 00:14:22,600
There are some doozy candidates

289
00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:25,533
that have been nominated 
in these Republican primaries.

290
00:14:25,533 --> 00:14:27,066
It's really hard right now

291
00:14:27,066 --> 00:14:29,400
for some of the more mainstream 
Republicans.

292
00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:30,300
It's hard for women,

293
00:14:30,300 --> 00:14:32,200
and Amanda is an expert on this,

294
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,100
to get nominated 
in the primaries.

295
00:14:34,100 --> 00:14:38,000
And so you have some of these 
very flawed candidates emerging.

296
00:14:38,366 --> 00:14:41,366
And Trump will initially endorse 
him and then have to,

297
00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:45,100
you know, separate himself 
from these candidates.

298
00:14:45,100 --> 00:14:48,733
I think the other impact 
that Trump and Harris have

299
00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:50,966
are who they're mobilizing,

300
00:14:50,966 --> 00:14:53,500
because if they're bringing 
in candidates,

301
00:14:53,500 --> 00:14:56,466
if they're bringing 
in new voters, those voters,

302
00:14:56,466 --> 00:14:59,100
may just vote down the ticket

303
00:14:59,100 --> 00:15:02,166
and send Trump 
or Harris, his or her team.

304
00:15:02,166 --> 00:15:04,533
So I think that's a big impact.

305
00:15:04,533 --> 00:15:07,733
And then the agenda 
that they said, certainly,

306
00:15:08,300 --> 00:15:11,833
Trump being 
so forceful on the economy

307
00:15:13,300 --> 00:15:14,133
has meant a lot

308
00:15:14,500 --> 00:15:17,133
of Democrats have had to address 
weaknesses on the economy.

309
00:15:17,966 --> 00:15:20,266
The fact that Harris is so 
strong on abortion

310
00:15:20,266 --> 00:15:22,600
have meant that a lot of 
candidates who weren't planning

311
00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,066
to have a whole campaign 
talking about abortion

312
00:15:25,066 --> 00:15:27,233
have had to answer that issue.

313
00:15:27,233 --> 00:15:30,466
And, for example, in the 
Tester-Sheehy race in Montana,

314
00:15:31,066 --> 00:15:32,866
there's an initiative 
on the ballot.

315
00:15:32,866 --> 00:15:33,633
And it's

316
00:15:34,133 --> 00:15:36,633
a very clear distinction because 
Tester said, “I vote yes.”

317
00:15:36,633 --> 00:15:38,366
Sheehy said he'll vote no.

318
00:15:38,366 --> 00:15:39,566
And it's been a struggle.

319
00:15:39,566 --> 00:15:41,133
It's been one of the things 
that's gained

320
00:15:41,133 --> 00:15:44,266
some points back for Tester 
because people are like,

321
00:15:44,266 --> 00:15:46,700
“This is in our Constitution, 
we like this.”

322
00:15:46,700 --> 00:15:49,033
And so that has the issue,

323
00:15:49,033 --> 00:15:52,200
agenda has seeped down 
to some of the other candidates.

324
00:15:52,766 --> 00:15:56,300
I do think one of the other 
factors here is, because

325
00:15:57,266 --> 00:15:58,400
some of these swing voters

326
00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:01,466
this year are college 
educated voters,

327
00:16:01,766 --> 00:16:04,766
thinking specifically 
about do places like Minnesota,

328
00:16:04,966 --> 00:16:07,800
where the vice 
presidential nominee

329
00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:09,333
on the Democratic side

330
00:16:09,333 --> 00:16:13,366
is from, there are a lot of 
swing voters

331
00:16:13,366 --> 00:16:16,366
who might lean towards 
voting for the Democrats

332
00:16:16,366 --> 00:16:17,700
on the top of the ticket.

333
00:16:17,700 --> 00:16:20,566
But frankly, the last, 
you know, couple of years

334
00:16:20,566 --> 00:16:23,666
under Walz, he's really 
raised their taxes by a lot.

335
00:16:24,533 --> 00:16:25,566
And they might

336
00:16:25,566 --> 00:16:26,433
when they're looking at kind

337
00:16:26,433 --> 00:16:28,666
of the state races down 
the ballot,

338
00:16:28,666 --> 00:16:30,700
might be leaning towards 
splitting their ticket.

339
00:16:30,700 --> 00:16:32,266
And there's I think

340
00:16:32,266 --> 00:16:33,866
when you're having more of these 
swing

341
00:16:33,866 --> 00:16:36,033
voters be college 
educated voters,

342
00:16:36,033 --> 00:16:37,100
they're potentially

343
00:16:37,100 --> 00:16:39,233
more likely to be looking 
to split their tickets,

344
00:16:39,233 --> 00:16:40,300
especially when you're looking

345
00:16:40,300 --> 00:16:42,133
at a federal versus 
a state race.

346
00:16:42,133 --> 00:16:46,166
When we've tested, by the way, 
Bonnie, to the 2025 agenda,

347
00:16:46,700 --> 00:16:49,433
that's 
something that has coattails to.

348
00:16:49,433 --> 00:16:52,400
And so we found, Amanda 
is raising a really good point,

349
00:16:52,733 --> 00:16:56,200
that when we found that, 
we can say, you know, that

350
00:16:56,666 --> 00:16:58,900
Trump is for this 
and the Senate candidate,

351
00:16:58,900 --> 00:17:01,100
the MAGA Republican 
Senate candidates for this.

352
00:17:01,100 --> 00:17:01,566
And people

353
00:17:01,566 --> 00:17:02,266
think, “Well,

354
00:17:02,466 --> 00:17:04,033
I might vote for Trump 
for other reasons,

355
00:17:04,033 --> 00:17:05,600
but then I'm going 
to have to balance that vote

356
00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:09,100
by sending a Democratic senator 
who's opposed to 2025.”

357
00:17:09,433 --> 00:17:10,900
So there is some balancing

358
00:17:10,900 --> 00:17:14,033
going on in the voters 
minds, particularly these last,

359
00:17:14,733 --> 00:17:17,800
undecided voters who aren't 
that rooted in partisanship.

360
00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:19,800
Tell me how polling has changed.

361
00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:24,133
I'll get back to particular 
topics in the campaign, but

362
00:17:24,466 --> 00:17:26,500
as I understood it,

363
00:17:26,500 --> 00:17:29,500
because so few people 
have home phones anymore

364
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:31,433
and most everybody's on cell

365
00:17:31,433 --> 00:17:33,500
and you can't get cell 
phone numbers.

366
00:17:33,500 --> 00:17:34,966
How are pollsters

367
00:17:34,966 --> 00:17:37,933
making sure that they're getting 
a representative sample

368
00:17:37,933 --> 00:17:39,800
the way they used to be able 
to do

369
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,800
by looking up a person's 
phone number

370
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,833
and seeing where they lived 
and maybe even looking up

371
00:17:44,833 --> 00:17:45,766
voting record.

372
00:17:45,766 --> 00:17:47,666
Well, 
one thing I would correct is

373
00:17:47,666 --> 00:17:51,433
we can get a hold of cell 
phone numbers and we can buy.

374
00:17:51,433 --> 00:17:54,166
There are huge databases 
of cell phone numbers.

375
00:17:54,166 --> 00:17:55,566
There are vendors who match

376
00:17:55,566 --> 00:17:58,633
cell phones to the voting files 
so we can get your cell phone.

377
00:17:58,966 --> 00:18:02,033
Although I hope in saying 
that we don't shut that down

378
00:18:02,033 --> 00:18:05,033
because the minute I avoid 
thinking because it's no way,

379
00:18:05,466 --> 00:18:08,466
that polling will survive, 
but we try to reach them.

380
00:18:08,466 --> 00:18:11,800
We still reach 20% 
on landlines.

381
00:18:12,433 --> 00:18:14,866
Mostly seniors and rural voters.

382
00:18:14,866 --> 00:18:16,600
We reach you, 
we try to reach you

383
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:20,966
on your cell phone, we text you, 
and we also do online polling.

384
00:18:20,966 --> 00:18:24,466
So we're trying to reach you in 
multiple ways, multiple times,

385
00:18:24,700 --> 00:18:25,833
multiple days.

386
00:18:25,833 --> 00:18:28,300
But it is hard to reach people.

387
00:18:28,300 --> 00:18:30,266
And the response rates 
have gone way down.

388
00:18:30,266 --> 00:18:32,700
And it always makes 
the pollsters on either

389
00:18:32,700 --> 00:18:34,333
side of the aisle very nervous.

390
00:18:34,333 --> 00:18:36,666
Yeah, I will say it's gotten,

391
00:18:36,666 --> 00:18:38,700
I think, more interesting 
that we can reach people,

392
00:18:38,700 --> 00:18:41,700
especially through text 
in various times of day.

393
00:18:42,333 --> 00:18:44,833
We used to, you know, only call 
during dinner time

394
00:18:44,833 --> 00:18:47,833
and get hung up on 
because for those reasons.

395
00:18:48,100 --> 00:18:49,400
But now we can reach out.

396
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:50,466
And in different times of day,

397
00:18:50,466 --> 00:18:51,933
people 
are on different schedules

398
00:18:51,933 --> 00:18:54,966
and I think Celinda 
and I probably both miss,

399
00:18:54,966 --> 00:18:56,200
you know, 
some of the days of Covid

400
00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,633
when it was very easy 
to get people on the phone

401
00:18:58,633 --> 00:19:01,500
because everyone was a lot of 
people were home during the day

402
00:19:01,500 --> 00:19:03,900
and begging to talk 
to anybody, even pollsters.

403
00:19:05,266 --> 00:19:06,166
Right, exactly.

404
00:19:06,466 --> 00:19:09,166
It was lonely spending all 
those months at home, wasn't it?

405
00:19:09,433 --> 00:19:13,033
Well, but what about, 
making sure,

406
00:19:13,033 --> 00:19:16,033
you know, you said you can buy,

407
00:19:16,033 --> 00:19:19,333
you can buy cell phone numbers, 
you can buy down to the zip

408
00:19:19,333 --> 00:19:21,133
code and get all kinds

409
00:19:21,133 --> 00:19:23,966
of voting information 
on the people you're calling.

410
00:19:23,966 --> 00:19:27,666
But how do you make sure, 
for example, that you're

411
00:19:27,666 --> 00:19:32,366
not oversampling one 
kind of voter versus another?

412
00:19:32,366 --> 00:19:33,300
I ask this

413
00:19:33,300 --> 00:19:35,633
because I saw a poll 
most recently,

414
00:19:35,633 --> 00:19:38,200
and it was actually an online 
poll,

415
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:40,533
and I wonder how much 
these polls are being used

416
00:19:40,533 --> 00:19:42,233
and how they're being used.

417
00:19:42,233 --> 00:19:46,166
But an online poll 
that was very that showed,

418
00:19:47,566 --> 00:19:50,100
Trump up way higher

419
00:19:50,100 --> 00:19:54,600
than he had been in any recent 
survey by Quinnipiac or

420
00:19:54,866 --> 00:19:56,533
or Ipsos or,

421
00:19:56,533 --> 00:19:59,533
you know, Gallup or any of the 
established pollsters.

422
00:19:59,766 --> 00:20:03,733
So is there something going 
wrong with online polls

423
00:20:03,733 --> 00:20:06,066
or are they just 
getting people to respond

424
00:20:06,066 --> 00:20:10,133
and not seeing, 
what their proclivity is,

425
00:20:10,133 --> 00:20:11,300
politically speaking?

426
00:20:11,300 --> 00:20:14,666
It very much depends on how 
the online poll was conducted,

427
00:20:14,666 --> 00:20:19,833
which panel they used and how 
they collected the data.

428
00:20:20,833 --> 00:20:22,600
Often when we're using online

429
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:27,366
panels, 
it's a blend of opt-ins.

430
00:20:28,066 --> 00:20:31,233
And we're also sometimes 
blending it with texting

431
00:20:31,233 --> 00:20:34,233
and calling 
and kind of whenever you're

432
00:20:34,566 --> 00:20:37,566
mixing your methods, you're 
probably getting a

433
00:20:37,900 --> 00:20:40,066
group of people 
from a bunch of different,

434
00:20:40,066 --> 00:20:42,666
different ways 
and kind of sampling

435
00:20:42,666 --> 00:20:44,966
from a bunch of different 
methods and evening out

436
00:20:44,966 --> 00:20:47,066
any problems 
with one particular method.

437
00:20:47,066 --> 00:20:51,133
And we have, we established 
strata and quotas like we

438
00:20:51,466 --> 00:20:52,900
estimate how many people will be

439
00:20:52,900 --> 00:20:55,500
African American, 
how many people will be women?

440
00:20:55,500 --> 00:20:57,900
And I would imagine that poll 
that you saw

441
00:20:57,900 --> 00:21:01,033
might have had majority men, 
for example.

442
00:21:01,033 --> 00:21:04,133
One of the things 
that really irritates us

443
00:21:04,133 --> 00:21:08,200
as pollsters is 85% of our polls 
are never public.

444
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,133
And there are some very fine 
public polls, as you said.

445
00:21:12,133 --> 00:21:14,666
And there are some 
really sloppy ones.

446
00:21:14,666 --> 00:21:16,266
And that's why the averaging

447
00:21:16,266 --> 00:21:19,266
is a little bit 
of your safety against that.

448
00:21:19,533 --> 00:21:21,900
We also have to figure out 
what the turnout model is.

449
00:21:21,900 --> 00:21:22,866
And in our firm

450
00:21:24,133 --> 00:21:26,866
we often estimate two different 
turnout models.

451
00:21:26,866 --> 00:21:29,633
What if we get a Harris surge? 
This is what the vote will be.

452
00:21:29,633 --> 00:21:31,066
What if we get a Trump surge?

453
00:21:31,066 --> 00:21:32,700
This is what the vote will be.

454
00:21:32,700 --> 00:21:34,266
What if it's 
a traditional electorate?

455
00:21:34,266 --> 00:21:36,166
So we're trying to understand

456
00:21:36,166 --> 00:21:39,966
and protect ourselves 
against deviation like that.

457
00:21:40,233 --> 00:21:41,733
And we stratified by region.

458
00:21:41,733 --> 00:21:44,066
We don't go in 
and get all of the interviews.

459
00:21:44,066 --> 00:21:47,033
In New York State for Manhattan, 
for example, we get it

460
00:21:47,033 --> 00:21:50,033
proportionate to the electorate 
that's in Manhattan.

461
00:21:50,033 --> 00:21:53,100
So we're trying very hard, 
but it is more difficult.

462
00:21:53,433 --> 00:21:56,700
And I think people bring a 
healthy skepticism to the polls.

463
00:21:57,066 --> 00:21:58,200
And that's a good thing.

464
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:03,800
Now, Harris, for example, 
is talking a lot about her

465
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:07,300
childcare, expanded 
childcare credits or

466
00:22:07,500 --> 00:22:10,966
tax credits for small 
businesses just starting out

467
00:22:12,166 --> 00:22:13,500
and day care.

468
00:22:13,500 --> 00:22:16,666
And are those issues, are those

469
00:22:16,666 --> 00:22:20,066
the kind of issues that do 
well with women or does?

470
00:22:20,066 --> 00:22:24,533
Is that translated by her 
followers and her supporters

471
00:22:24,533 --> 00:22:25,900
and would be followers

472
00:22:25,900 --> 00:22:29,633
and supporters into her 
improving the economy,

473
00:22:29,633 --> 00:22:33,733
the way Trump always talks about 
improving the economy overall?

474
00:22:33,933 --> 00:22:35,733
Well, it's 
a big part of the economy,

475
00:22:35,733 --> 00:22:36,866
particularly for women,

476
00:22:36,866 --> 00:22:39,800
and it's increasingly a big part 
of the economy for men.

477
00:22:40,066 --> 00:22:43,933
And we had the funniest, married 
men focus group in Michigan,

478
00:22:44,633 --> 00:22:48,266
a while ago, where men said, 
“I'm a caregiver spouse.

479
00:22:48,266 --> 00:22:50,633
So I get my to-do list 
every Saturday.”

480
00:22:50,633 --> 00:22:51,466
They do.

481
00:22:51,766 --> 00:22:54,566
And there's now men 
see that as, “Okay, I got a role

482
00:22:54,566 --> 00:22:56,366
I got to go 
pick up after prescriptions

483
00:22:56,366 --> 00:22:57,633
for my mother-in-law.

484
00:22:57,633 --> 00:22:59,866
I got to go do this. 
I got to go.

485
00:22:59,866 --> 00:23:02,233
I got to cover half the day 
care of the kids sake.

486
00:23:02,233 --> 00:23:04,400
It's my turn to take, 
stay at home.”

487
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,133
So, and I can tell you, as

488
00:23:06,133 --> 00:23:08,400
an employer, 
young men are negotiating

489
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,533
this just as actively 
as young women are.

490
00:23:11,533 --> 00:23:13,300
So it's a caregiving.

491
00:23:13,300 --> 00:23:15,733
In cities they are.

492
00:23:15,733 --> 00:23:16,333
Yeah.

493
00:23:16,733 --> 00:23:18,933
Actually, suburban 
men are pretty big on it.

494
00:23:18,933 --> 00:23:24,033
And, you know, even rural men 
are intergenerationally focused.

495
00:23:24,033 --> 00:23:26,666
So it's, you know, they don't 
do the same amount of work.

496
00:23:26,666 --> 00:23:29,666
I mean, one of the funniest 
questions out there is

497
00:23:29,666 --> 00:23:32,266
we asked men, 
“Do you do the same amount of

498
00:23:32,266 --> 00:23:35,400
caregiving in home, housework 
as your spouse?”

499
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:36,533
And they said, 
“Absolutely, I do.”

500
00:23:36,533 --> 00:23:38,866
50% of women are like, 
“Are you kidding?

501
00:23:38,866 --> 00:23:41,933
25% max.” Yeah.

502
00:23:43,033 --> 00:23:47,433
But, the other thing, though, 
that is really revealing here,

503
00:23:47,766 --> 00:23:51,166
if you ask who would be better 
on the economy,

504
00:23:51,533 --> 00:23:53,100
Donald Trump is ahead.

505
00:23:53,100 --> 00:23:56,000
Who would be better on bringing 
jobs to the United States?

506
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:57,433
Donald Trump is ahead.

507
00:23:57,433 --> 00:24:00,766
If you ask who would be better 
on the economic well-being

508
00:24:00,766 --> 00:24:04,400
for you and your family, 
Harris is slightly ahead.

509
00:24:04,666 --> 00:24:07,433
If you would ask, 
who would be better on dealing

510
00:24:07,433 --> 00:24:10,500
with economics 
like health care costs?

511
00:24:10,500 --> 00:24:13,733
Harris is much better, so 
they each have their advantages

512
00:24:14,100 --> 00:24:16,233
in the economic dialogue.

513
00:24:16,233 --> 00:24:19,266
And one of the things 
that Harris is trying to fix,

514
00:24:19,266 --> 00:24:22,333
and I think she's doing it 
very ably, is that

515
00:24:22,333 --> 00:24:24,700
people just didn't know her 
very well.

516
00:24:24,700 --> 00:24:25,666
So they have no idea.

517
00:24:25,666 --> 00:24:28,700
They still dont. Right.

518
00:24:29,233 --> 00:24:32,300
So she's trying to fill in 
here is my agenda.

519
00:24:32,300 --> 00:24:33,833
It is a new agenda.

520
00:24:33,833 --> 00:24:36,066
It has the focus 
of my experience

521
00:24:36,066 --> 00:24:39,000
in life with small business 
and housing and caregiving.

522
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,466
And she just, you know, working 
very hard in advertising

523
00:24:42,466 --> 00:24:46,700
and in every public appearance 
to get that information out.

524
00:24:46,933 --> 00:24:48,466
She was able to flip her,

525
00:24:48,466 --> 00:24:49,300
I mean, her

526
00:24:49,566 --> 00:24:52,066
approval ratings or favorability 
ratings are underwater

527
00:24:52,066 --> 00:24:53,066
for a very long time.

528
00:24:53,066 --> 00:24:54,100
She was able to flip them.

529
00:24:54,100 --> 00:24:57,666
But that's partly 
why her image is still soft

530
00:24:57,666 --> 00:25:00,500
and why some of this electorate 
is still soft.

531
00:25:00,500 --> 00:25:02,433
But your point 
on, you know, the different.

532
00:25:02,433 --> 00:25:05,233
I find that interesting 
because, for example,

533
00:25:05,233 --> 00:25:08,100
she's been much more explicit 
about what

534
00:25:08,100 --> 00:25:11,100
she's going to do with the 
tax code, whereas, you know,

535
00:25:12,300 --> 00:25:15,266
Trump was questioned 
at the New York Economic Club

536
00:25:15,266 --> 00:25:17,466
some weeks ago, asked 
about how he'd,

537
00:25:17,466 --> 00:25:19,966
you know, what he'd do with 
child care, how he'd pay for it.

538
00:25:19,966 --> 00:25:23,533
And he rambled off and started 
talking about tariffs, which,

539
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:28,733
you know, a lot of economists 
believe would kill the economy

540
00:25:28,733 --> 00:25:31,900
if he raised, 
it would be very inflationary

541
00:25:31,900 --> 00:25:35,033
if he raised tariffs 
the way he's planning to.

542
00:25:35,033 --> 00:25:37,000
So your thoughts on that, 
Amanda?

543
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,966
I think for Trump, 
there's more of a track record

544
00:25:40,166 --> 00:25:41,166
that he can point to.

545
00:25:41,166 --> 00:25:44,233
And people 
remember how they felt

546
00:25:44,233 --> 00:25:47,233
and how the economy was for them 
under Trump.

547
00:25:47,966 --> 00:25:50,700
You know, there's 
a little bit more of an actual

548
00:25:50,700 --> 00:25:55,000
gut feel for how they and 
their family were doing.

549
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,666
But as Celinda was talking about 
in terms of,

550
00:25:56,666 --> 00:25:58,766
you know, 
which economic measures

551
00:25:58,766 --> 00:26:01,966
Trump is kind of best 
on, you know,

552
00:26:01,966 --> 00:26:05,100
I think one of the things 
to remember is that the way

553
00:26:05,100 --> 00:26:08,566
men and women view 
the economy is also different.

554
00:26:08,833 --> 00:26:09,966
How so?

555
00:26:09,966 --> 00:26:13,000
Men often look at the economy 
and how well the economy

556
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,000
is doing by the incoming,

557
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,833
the income for families, so 
the wages and jobs.

558
00:26:19,833 --> 00:26:21,266
And women are looking at it

559
00:26:21,266 --> 00:26:24,033
in terms of the outgoing 
expenditures.

560
00:26:24,033 --> 00:26:28,933
So inflation, and prices 
are really hitting for women.

561
00:26:29,266 --> 00:26:31,900
And so one of the things 
that you're really seeing is,

562
00:26:31,900 --> 00:26:35,166
an education 
or socioeconomic gap for women.

563
00:26:35,466 --> 00:26:38,300
So I don't think Trump 
is really going to be targeting

564
00:26:38,300 --> 00:26:41,600
winning over college 
educated women.

565
00:26:41,833 --> 00:26:42,866
Now, there are some spots

566
00:26:42,866 --> 00:26:44,966
where he'll be able to 
on a safety issue.

567
00:26:44,966 --> 00:26:45,866
And that's how Republicans

568
00:26:46,100 --> 00:26:49,433
were able to do so well 
in places like New York in 2022,

569
00:26:50,066 --> 00:26:53,266
but in places like Wisconsin 
and Michigan and Arizona,

570
00:26:53,266 --> 00:26:53,766
what he's going to be

571
00:26:54,433 --> 00:26:57,200
focusing on are kind of women 
without college degrees.

572
00:26:57,500 --> 00:26:58,733
And those are the women that,

573
00:26:58,733 --> 00:27:01,033
you know, over the last 
four years have had to decide

574
00:27:01,033 --> 00:27:05,300
whether to put gas in the car 
or food on the table at times.

575
00:27:05,300 --> 00:27:07,966
So that kind of economic stress

576
00:27:07,966 --> 00:27:10,966
has been really front 
and center for them.

577
00:27:11,333 --> 00:27:15,133
And they remember that 
under the Trump administration,

578
00:27:15,133 --> 00:27:18,133
they didn't have that kind 
of same economic stress.

579
00:27:18,500 --> 00:27:20,800
And that's really 
what he's focusing on.

580
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:24,166
Thank you both for joining 
us, pollsters Celinda Lake

581
00:27:24,166 --> 00:27:27,266
and Amanda Iovino. 
That's it for this edition.

582
00:27:27,266 --> 00:27:30,400
Keep the conversation going on 
all our social media

583
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,833
platforms 
and visit our website:

584
00:27:35,533 --> 00:27:38,533
And whether you agree 
or think to the contrary,

585
00:27:38,733 --> 00:27:39,466
see you next week.

586
00:27:57,300 --> 00:28:00,866
Funding for “To the 
Contrary,” provided by: