1 00:00:01,366 --> 00:00:03,366 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Mike Johnson keeps the speaker's 2 00:00:03,366 --> 00:00:07,200 gavel after Donald Trump convinces House Republican holdouts to switch their vote. 3 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:11,033 And we are just days away from witnessing something remarkable, Vice President 4 00:00:11,033 --> 00:00:16,033 Kamala Harris presiding over Congress' certification of Trump's reelection, next. 5 00:01:20,433 --> 00:01:25,433 Good evening and welcome to Washington Week. This coming Monday, January 6th to be exact, 6 00:01:27,500 --> 00:01:31,066 Kamala Harris will preside over Congress as it ratifies the election of Donald Trump. 7 00:01:31,066 --> 00:01:35,433 Two weeks later, Trump takes the oath of office and immediately plans to implement his agenda, 8 00:01:35,433 --> 00:01:39,500 but he'll also confront a long list of preexisting challenges, including, 9 00:01:39,500 --> 00:01:44,500 as we saw this week in New Orleans, the continued salience of the Islamic State terror group. 10 00:01:46,633 --> 00:01:49,300 Joining me tonight to discuss these issues and more, Peter Baker, the chief White House 11 00:01:49,300 --> 00:01:54,233 correspondent for The New York Times, Leigh Ann Caldwell is an anchor for Washington Post Live and 12 00:01:54,233 --> 00:01:59,200 a co-author of The Early Brief, Francesca Chambers is a White House correspondent for USA Today and 13 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:05,333 David Ignatius is a columnist for The Washington Post. Thank you very much, all of you. Happy New 14 00:02:07,666 --> 00:02:11,200 Year to all of you. Thank you for being here. Very serious opening days of this year, I have to say. 15 00:02:14,033 --> 00:02:19,033 I want to turn -- before we get to New Orleans and the attack, I want to talk about the action 16 00:02:21,300 --> 00:02:24,666 on the Hill today. Leigh Ann, why don't you give us a little understanding about how Mike Johnson 17 00:02:26,966 --> 00:02:31,300 managed to become speaker again despite a lot of tempestuous emotions in the Republican Caucus? 18 00:02:36,100 --> 00:02:40,033 LEIGH ANN CALDWELL, Anchor, Washington Post Live: Yes, so ultimately it was not necessarily a repeat 19 00:02:40,033 --> 00:02:45,033 of two years ago, the four days and 15 rounds of Kevin McCarthy trying to win the speaker's gavel, 20 00:02:46,866 --> 00:02:49,833 but it was still dramatic. He did it on the first round, but, ultimately, 21 00:02:49,833 --> 00:02:54,766 it came down to Donald Trump. There were some holdouts, people who didn't want to 22 00:02:54,766 --> 00:02:59,733 vote for Mike Johnson, voted for someone else. And those people got on the -- Donald Trump got 23 00:03:01,900 --> 00:03:06,600 on the phone with those people and ultimately negotiated and worked out a path forward. 24 00:03:08,733 --> 00:03:10,833 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: What did they want? 25 00:03:10,833 --> 00:03:14,833 LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: So, it was -- generally speaking, what they wanted and what they 26 00:03:16,933 --> 00:03:20,133 got is a commitment from Mike Johnson, which he says there was no deal, but in a reaffirmation, 27 00:03:23,333 --> 00:03:28,333 Johnson says, to reduce spending, and also to give more power to committees and the rank and 28 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:36,600 file members rather than leadership negotiating all sorts of big bills instead of spending bills. 29 00:03:38,666 --> 00:03:42,633 And even Mike Johnson says that that a large factor had to do with Donald Trump. I asked 30 00:03:44,966 --> 00:03:49,500 him that tonight. I said, what role did Trump play? And he said, Donald Trump has been -- is 31 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:55,000 perhaps the most powerful president in the country's history, he says, or most influential, 32 00:03:57,300 --> 00:04:00,400 and that he absolutely played a major factor in Mike Johnson winning the speaker's battle tonight. 33 00:04:02,366 --> 00:04:06,733 So, there was a lot of cajoling. There's still a divided Republican conference, 34 00:04:08,133 --> 00:04:10,600 but, ultimately, Trump was able to, before the vote, 35 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:15,600 turn a lot of members in favor of Johnson. And then in the most ultimately dire times of 36 00:04:17,633 --> 00:04:21,566 today where Johnson didn't have the votes, Donald Trump was able to get them there. 37 00:04:21,566 --> 00:04:23,733 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: FDR might want to have a word with Mike Johnson 38 00:04:23,733 --> 00:04:27,433 on the question of who's the most powerful, but we'll put that aside. 39 00:04:27,433 --> 00:04:29,000 LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: I guess influential is what he said. 40 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:31,900 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: We can have that argument another time. 41 00:04:31,900 --> 00:04:36,900 David, I'm curious, this is interesting because Trump chose stability over chaos in this case. 42 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:42,600 DAVID IGNATIUS, Columnist, The Washington Post: Momentarily. 43 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:46,133 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Well, no. But, I mean, what do you take from Johnson's success? 44 00:04:48,266 --> 00:04:52,333 DAVID IGNATIUS: I thought that today's events were a piece of political theater. The right 45 00:04:54,466 --> 00:04:57,666 got to flex its muscles. Trump got to show everybody I'm in charge. I can make it happen. 46 00:05:00,100 --> 00:05:03,833 I think the interesting question, Jeff, is whether Trump really wants to set about being the leader 47 00:05:06,300 --> 00:05:11,300 of a governing party. He's shown ways that he's trying to be pragmatic, push the extreme right 48 00:05:13,466 --> 00:05:18,333 in his party down on the question of the H-1B visas, on questions of an abortion mandate, on 49 00:05:22,233 --> 00:05:27,233 some other cultural issues. He's been pushing the right away and saying I'm going to govern myself, 50 00:05:30,266 --> 00:05:34,666 and I think he has the ambition to govern the whole country. He keeps saying that, 51 00:05:34,666 --> 00:05:39,666 you know, this is a movement, there's never been a president who can solve problems the way I can. 52 00:05:41,933 --> 00:05:46,700 I keep coming back to the question with Trump, whether he is about trying to build the country 53 00:05:49,066 --> 00:05:52,433 or seek revenge for the things that he feels were done to him. You see both of them -- saw both of 54 00:05:54,766 --> 00:05:58,733 them today actually in a strange tweet in the very early morning hours as a kind of American carnage, 55 00:06:00,566 --> 00:06:04,800 and then this effort to rally the Congress around his chosen candidate as 56 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:09,800 speaker. Which Trump is going to prevail after inauguration day? I couldn't say. 57 00:06:11,300 --> 00:06:12,700 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Peter, do you know which Trump is going 58 00:06:12,700 --> 00:06:14,900 to prevail after inauguration day? Let us know. 59 00:06:14,900 --> 00:06:17,033 PETER BAKER, Chief White House Correspondent, The New York Times: Yes, no, but if past is prologue, 60 00:06:17,033 --> 00:06:21,600 I think we should not expect the unifying leader that he sometimes pretends he wants 61 00:06:23,566 --> 00:06:27,066 to be. It's just not his metier, to use a word I heard recently around this table, 62 00:06:28,566 --> 00:06:31,600 that's not the way he rolls. He does have moments where he 63 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:35,233 wants a little stability over chaos, where he feels it will benefit him. 64 00:06:35,233 --> 00:06:39,400 But let's face it, he's working with one party, not two, right? He's not trying to 65 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:43,200 work across the aisle. He's not having any conversations that we know of with Democrats 66 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:46,300 to talk about their priorities or how to have joint priorities. They actually could come 67 00:06:46,300 --> 00:06:50,200 to deals on some really important things. There are immigration deals, for instance, 68 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:55,200 to be had. If he wanted to have them on DACA, you know, with some border stuff, that kind of thing, 69 00:06:57,300 --> 00:06:59,633 he has indicated no interest in that. And his appointments of, or his choice of people like 70 00:06:59,633 --> 00:07:04,466 Kash Patel for the FBI and Pete Hegseth for the defense indicates to me that retribution 71 00:07:04,466 --> 00:07:08,700 is high on the list, whether it also comes along with building some policies or not. 72 00:07:08,700 --> 00:07:12,866 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But on the other hand, I mean, to go back to David's point, just to follow this, 73 00:07:12,866 --> 00:07:17,633 is this an indication that there's a learning curve here, that he's learned some lessons 74 00:07:17,633 --> 00:07:22,633 from the first term and is trying to apply the normal rules of politics and, you know, 75 00:07:24,500 --> 00:07:29,100 trying to marginalized to some degree the extreme right? I mean, is there -- 76 00:07:29,100 --> 00:07:31,633 DAVID IGNATIUS: Remember just a couple weeks ago, and we uncovered this, you know, 77 00:07:31,633 --> 00:07:36,066 he tried to blow up a spending deal that had just been sealed off by Mike Johnson, and it 78 00:07:36,066 --> 00:07:41,066 was 40 Republicans who said, no, we're not going along with you on your decision to try to punt the 79 00:07:43,300 --> 00:07:46,400 debt ceiling off until later in the presidency. So, they rebelled against him and maybe he's 80 00:07:48,766 --> 00:07:51,666 learned from that a little bit. But I would be cautious about overstating how far he's changed. 81 00:07:53,633 --> 00:07:56,733 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Francesca, let's talk about this House Republicans, 218 to 215, 82 00:07:59,166 --> 00:08:02,466 it's about as close as you can get. You know, and this is what Thomas Massie, who I think Johnson's, 83 00:08:04,733 --> 00:08:08,600 at least at the moment, most ferocious opponent, had to say before the vote on the Matt Gaetz show 84 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:14,200 on the One America Network, yes, that Matt Gaetz now has a television show. Things move really 85 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:19,200 quickly these days, don't they? Anyway, this is what Massie said. He said you could pull all my 86 00:08:21,300 --> 00:08:24,533 fingernails out. You can shove bamboo up in them. You can start cutting off my fingers. 87 00:08:24,533 --> 00:08:29,533 I am not voting for Mike Johnson tomorrow. And you could take that to the bank. That's -- if 88 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:37,600 Mike Johnson had a comfortable buffer, that's one thing, but he has no buffer, whatsoever. 89 00:08:39,633 --> 00:08:43,933 So, how stable is this group of Republicans who are now for the moment backing Mike 90 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:49,500 Johnson? Is he going to be speaker, in other words, at the end of the year? 91 00:08:49,500 --> 00:08:51,666 FRANCESCA CHAMBERS, White House Correspondent, USA Today: Well, it partly comes down to what 92 00:08:51,666 --> 00:08:56,233 is the other option, and that's what they ran into this week. If you don't want Mike Johnson, 93 00:08:56,233 --> 00:09:01,233 then who else do you want? And how do you get a majority of Republicans behind that person? We 94 00:09:03,333 --> 00:09:07,133 saw Donald Trump come in and help to save him. You mentioned his own self-interest. I mean, 95 00:09:09,233 --> 00:09:13,733 he wants to come in. He wants to be able to get his agenda done. He has four years to do so. He 96 00:09:15,833 --> 00:09:19,533 doesn't have an eight-year term that he can look forward to here. He has the four years 97 00:09:19,533 --> 00:09:24,066 to get things done. And we've already seen him start to make aggressive moves in that direction. 98 00:09:24,066 --> 00:09:27,300 But as you pointed out with Massie, Trump's influences, 99 00:09:27,300 --> 00:09:31,966 even within this new Republican Party, is sometimes limited. 100 00:09:31,966 --> 00:09:36,966 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes. Peter, I'm not asking for predictions, but how stable is this majority? 101 00:09:39,700 --> 00:09:42,700 PETER BAKER: Well, it's not stable at all, obviously. I mean, to your point, 102 00:09:42,700 --> 00:09:45,933 the second they come back to this economic question in March, 103 00:09:45,933 --> 00:09:49,000 the financial stuff they're going to have to do in March, you're going to see the same nine 104 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:54,000 people. There were nine people who tried to flex their muscle today, you know, trying to enforce on 105 00:09:56,133 --> 00:09:59,300 Johnson commitments they believe he's made about spending. That would probably be impractical. 106 00:10:01,366 --> 00:10:03,366 And Johnson's going to have to talk with the Democrats probably if he wants to pass some. 107 00:10:03,366 --> 00:10:08,366 LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: And that number nine that were held out today is important, 108 00:10:10,300 --> 00:10:12,600 because that number is very important. Because number nine is now the number 109 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:17,466 of Republicans it takes to vacate the chair for speakership. During Kevin McCarthy last Congress, 110 00:10:20,466 --> 00:10:22,700 he got in trouble because it just took one Republican. 111 00:10:22,700 --> 00:10:25,333 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. He agreed to like his own poison pill. 112 00:10:25,333 --> 00:10:28,466 LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: Yes, exactly, but now that number has been lifted to nine. And so that 113 00:10:28,466 --> 00:10:33,466 was a very purposeful symbolic moment on the House floor today from these critics of Mike 114 00:10:35,533 --> 00:10:40,333 Johnson to tell Johnson, we are watching you and we have the numbers if you do not 115 00:10:42,533 --> 00:10:46,300 get spending under control, if you negotiate with Democrats, if you don't enact our agenda. 116 00:10:48,133 --> 00:10:49,900 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Are there more than nine? In other words, 117 00:10:49,900 --> 00:10:54,166 is there some zone of comfort for those punitive rebels? 118 00:10:54,166 --> 00:10:58,833 LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: It depends on how bad it gets. But, yes, there's three dozen members in 119 00:10:58,833 --> 00:11:03,166 the far right Freedom Caucus, and so there could potentially be a lot more than nine. 120 00:11:03,166 --> 00:11:08,166 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Peter, let me change the subject to something historic. January 121 00:11:10,266 --> 00:11:13,533 6th is coming. It's exactly four years since the insurrection, the violent insurrection of 122 00:11:15,866 --> 00:11:19,700 January 6th. We're about to witness Kamala Harris, Democratic vice president, presidential candidate, 123 00:11:21,666 --> 00:11:25,500 losing presidential candidate, oversee the ratification of Donald Trump's election. 124 00:11:28,100 --> 00:11:33,100 Going back four years, we all covered this, some of us, very up close. It's 125 00:11:35,366 --> 00:11:39,633 hard to imagine that we're here. Given the way much of the country felt about Donald Trump in 126 00:11:41,933 --> 00:11:46,333 the immediate aftermath of the insurrection, the idea that Donald Trump is about to be peacefully 127 00:11:48,666 --> 00:11:53,500 ratified as the next president is striking. I just love to hear your analysis of how we got here. 128 00:11:56,033 --> 00:12:00,500 PETER BAKER: If you woke up on January 7th of 2021 with the glass still shattered on 129 00:12:00,500 --> 00:12:04,300 the floor of the Capitol and the smoke rising and the troops are surrounding 130 00:12:04,300 --> 00:12:08,800 the building and you had said that Donald Trump will be president in four years, 131 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:11,433 nobody would have believed that. Anybody who says that today is not telling you 132 00:12:11,433 --> 00:12:15,266 the truth. We weren't a hundred percent sure he was going to make it out two more weeks, 133 00:12:15,266 --> 00:12:19,133 right? There was talk that day about whether he might be impeached immediately, 134 00:12:19,133 --> 00:12:23,200 whether he would be forced out by Mike Pence in the cabinet in some sort of 25th Amendment thing, 135 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:27,266 whether something would happen that we couldn't trust him for two more weeks with power. 136 00:12:27,266 --> 00:12:29,200 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: The Senate was infuriated. 137 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:31,333 PETER BAKER: Senate was infuriated. JEFFREY GOLDBERG: House was infuriated. 138 00:12:31,333 --> 00:12:33,466 PETER BAKER: Of course they were. Lindsey Graham said he was done with him, right? Well, 139 00:12:33,466 --> 00:12:37,300 it turns out he wasn't. And the Republican caucus wasn't done with him either. And 140 00:12:37,300 --> 00:12:40,633 the Republican electorate wasn't done with him. That's the most important thing, right? 141 00:12:40,633 --> 00:12:44,433 How did he come back? Well, Kevin McCarthy, of course, gave him a new lease on life by going 142 00:12:44,433 --> 00:12:49,433 down to Mar-a-Lago and essentially exonerating him almost. Mitch McConnell decided not to 143 00:12:51,500 --> 00:12:54,100 try to force conviction in the trial that followed the impeachment that happened in 144 00:12:54,100 --> 00:12:58,766 the House. But broadly speaking, it turned out that his electorate still wanted him, 145 00:12:58,766 --> 00:13:02,400 and that held power over the elected officials who didn't. 146 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:04,933 And that's the real story here, is that they were not -- they did 147 00:13:04,933 --> 00:13:09,866 not find what he did on January 6th to be disqualifying. And therefore, 148 00:13:09,866 --> 00:13:12,400 the Congress and the elected officials went along with it. 149 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,800 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. I want to talk about the cabinet, 150 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:19,800 the incoming cabinet. We're heading into the thick of confirmation hearings soon. Francesca, 151 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:26,400 who is the cabinet pick right now who's in the most danger of not getting confirmed? 152 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,133 FRANCESCA CHAMBERS: So, this is not going to be that exciting, 153 00:13:29,133 --> 00:13:33,233 but everything basically remains the same as it did before we went away. 154 00:13:33,233 --> 00:13:34,533 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Okay, you're right. That's not exciting. 155 00:13:34,533 --> 00:13:35,766 FRANCESCA CHAMBERS: I'm sorry. I know. 156 00:13:35,766 --> 00:13:37,900 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Let's move on to sports. 157 00:13:37,900 --> 00:13:40,233 FRANCESCA CHAMBERS: No. But, I mean, realistically, that's what happened, right? You 158 00:13:40,233 --> 00:13:45,033 had the questions about Pete Hegseth going into the winter break. I mean, the Senate, the House, 159 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:50,066 they've been out for a little bit the last couple of weeks. Of course, there have been questions 160 00:13:52,133 --> 00:13:55,233 about Kash Patel. There have been questions about, of course, Kash Patel and the FBI as well. 161 00:13:57,666 --> 00:14:00,833 But now the Trump team is making this argument in light of the terrorist attack in New Orleans, that 162 00:14:03,433 --> 00:14:08,066 they need his national security nominees. They need them right away. And so they've been making 163 00:14:08,066 --> 00:14:13,066 this really big push to try and get them confirmed before or rather the week of when he takes office. 164 00:14:14,733 --> 00:14:18,266 Now, this is key because that is where the most contentious fights 165 00:14:18,266 --> 00:14:23,266 are going to be is over his national security nominees. And so now, though, 166 00:14:25,300 --> 00:14:28,600 you can expect the Senate to try and take those up first earlier in terms of who's 167 00:14:30,766 --> 00:14:35,066 the most in danger. It also depends on do they do these on the same day. Do they split these 168 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,533 up into different days? They want to get them in on January 20th. Is that even possible -- 169 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:43,966 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Shock and awe, just do it all at once. Flood the zone. 170 00:14:43,966 --> 00:14:46,533 FRANCESCA CHAMBERS: I mean, that could be a strategy that 171 00:14:46,533 --> 00:14:51,133 they employ. They have not announced yet, other than Pete Hegseth says on the 14th, 172 00:14:51,133 --> 00:14:53,466 when those will be. They have to give seven days notice, 173 00:14:53,466 --> 00:14:57,966 so we should know by Monday or Tuesday if they plan to have any other ones earlier in the week. 174 00:14:57,966 --> 00:14:59,833 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: David, let me reframe the question. Any 175 00:14:59,833 --> 00:15:02,366 of these nominees in danger from your perspective? 176 00:15:02,366 --> 00:15:04,400 DAVID IGNATIUS: So, I would think Tulsi 177 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:09,366 Gabbard as director of National Intelligence is very unlikely. 178 00:15:09,366 --> 00:15:10,500 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Unlikely? 179 00:15:10,500 --> 00:15:11,866 DAVID IGNATIUS: Yes. I think the -- 180 00:15:11,866 --> 00:15:13,633 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: What are you hearing on the Hill? 181 00:15:13,633 --> 00:15:15,733 DAVID IGNATIUS: I think the Senate Intelligence Committee is taking a 182 00:15:15,733 --> 00:15:19,000 very careful look. I think they've got a lot of material to look at. I think there 183 00:15:21,033 --> 00:15:24,200 are significant questions concerns people have about her. I think Bashar al Assad, 184 00:15:26,266 --> 00:15:29,733 the person she went to pay court to, getting deposed in Syria didn't help her nomination. So, 185 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:36,700 I'd be surprised if she got through. I think Pete Hegseth's nomination is going to be difficult. 186 00:15:38,900 --> 00:15:43,900 It's striking after the New Orleans terrorist attack, which we're going to talk about, 187 00:15:45,866 --> 00:15:49,633 how we all turn to the FBI, the CIA, our national security institutions. You know, 188 00:15:52,666 --> 00:15:57,666 we need them and people feel that deeply. And I'd be surprised if there isn't a deeper 189 00:15:59,866 --> 00:16:04,066 discussion in the Senate about these nominees. It really matters who's head of the Pentagon's 190 00:16:06,100 --> 00:16:10,900 hardest management job in government. Is Pete Hegseth really ready to do that? Is 191 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:16,000 Kash Patel really ready to lead an FBI, which we're going to need desperately to deal with 192 00:16:18,100 --> 00:16:22,400 counterterrorism issues? So, I'd be amazed if the Senate didn't really take those issues up. 193 00:16:24,133 --> 00:16:27,466 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Peter, any chance from your perspective that 194 00:16:27,466 --> 00:16:31,900 Kash Patel doesn't get through because people realize that, oh, you know what, 195 00:16:31,900 --> 00:16:36,900 maybe we need somebody with a broad investigative and antiterrorism experience? 196 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,833 PETER BAKER: A chance? Yes. It's a question of whether Trump does have 197 00:16:40,833 --> 00:16:44,466 the ability to discipline and impose his will on the Senate. 198 00:16:44,466 --> 00:16:47,833 Now, the Senate is different than the House, right? You have individuals there who won't 199 00:16:47,833 --> 00:16:52,200 be running again while Donald Trump is president. They have six-year terms. They have a little bit 200 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:57,200 more sense of independence and a sense of their own importance. And so there are opportunities, 201 00:16:59,033 --> 00:17:01,300 I think, for picking off three, four, possibly, members that would say, no, 202 00:17:01,300 --> 00:17:05,033 this is too much. Kash Patel may be a fine candidate. Political hatchet man, 203 00:17:05,033 --> 00:17:09,033 but putting him in charge of the nation's premier law enforcement agency at a time 204 00:17:09,033 --> 00:17:13,900 when 15 people are being run down in New Orleans may not be the best idea. But they're 205 00:17:13,900 --> 00:17:16,933 not going to say that right away. They're going to see how these pairings play out. 206 00:17:16,933 --> 00:17:21,100 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Leigh Ann, RFK Jr. in any danger? 207 00:17:21,100 --> 00:17:25,533 LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: So, I get a lot of mixed, mixed responses from Republican senators about 208 00:17:25,533 --> 00:17:30,533 RFK Jr. I like asked these senators to rank who's in the most trouble, and some said RFK is at the 209 00:17:33,066 --> 00:17:37,466 top of their list. Others say that he's going to be totally fine. So, it's really hard to tell. 210 00:17:37,466 --> 00:17:42,466 But I will say one of the challenges for RFK Jr. is not about his, you know, vaccine skepticism or 211 00:17:47,100 --> 00:17:52,100 his, you know, unorthodox views on health. It's from Republicans the abortion issue. And so he, 212 00:17:56,533 --> 00:18:01,066 I am told, has been asked a lot of questions in his private meetings about the issue of 213 00:18:01,066 --> 00:18:06,000 abortion and what he's going to do about that, running these health agencies. And 214 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:11,000 I am told that his response is that he will do what Donald Trump's will is. 215 00:18:13,133 --> 00:18:17,233 But what's important with not only RFK Jr., but all of these nominees is there's going to 216 00:18:17,233 --> 00:18:22,233 be public hearings, and every single senator is going to have to make a public determination in 217 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:31,400 large part based on these hearings and how the public responds to those two. These nominees 218 00:18:33,466 --> 00:18:37,133 could totally bomb in these hearings or they could just pass through with flying colors. 219 00:18:37,133 --> 00:18:39,833 FRANCESCA CHAMBERS: And, Peter, and you brought up the six year terms, 220 00:18:39,833 --> 00:18:44,833 but there are a few key senators who will be up in 2026, such as Susan Collins, who has announced 221 00:18:47,100 --> 00:18:50,533 that she plans to run for reelection. And she is someone who we all have our eye on to determine 222 00:18:50,533 --> 00:18:55,533 how she might vote. So, some of the people won't necessarily be there for the next six years. 223 00:18:57,033 --> 00:18:59,400 But as you were talking, Leigh Ann, about the hearings, I mean, 224 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:04,133 that's what I was hearing from senators as well. They really -- even the Republicans, 225 00:19:04,133 --> 00:19:09,133 they take their advice and consent role very seriously. Even if they are inclined, 226 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,800 the Republicans, to end up approving Donald Trump's cabinet nominees, they do want to see 227 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:19,800 the hearings. They do want to ask questions. And then, you know, even some of the people who have 228 00:19:22,166 --> 00:19:24,466 called holdouts so far might end up coming around his side, but they're not going to do that. We're 229 00:19:24,466 --> 00:19:27,533 not going to hear how Republicans plan to vote until after these hearings take place. 230 00:19:27,533 --> 00:19:29,500 DAVID IGNATIUS: Don't forget that the Republican 231 00:19:29,500 --> 00:19:33,900 caucus in secret voted against Trump's desire to have Senator Thune as the 232 00:19:35,933 --> 00:19:39,400 majority leader. That was a significant statement, I think, by Senate Republicans. 233 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,400 PETER BAKER: But in secret. 234 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:42,366 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: In secret. 235 00:19:42,366 --> 00:19:44,366 PETER BAKER: True, in secret. 236 00:19:44,366 --> 00:19:46,900 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: And they did it. And in secret, they probably will vote not 237 00:19:46,900 --> 00:19:50,566 to have Trump as president after January 6th either. But that would be in secret. 238 00:19:50,566 --> 00:19:54,533 PETER BAKER: By the way, David's point and Leigh Ann's point is right about Gabbard and RFK Jr. 239 00:19:54,533 --> 00:19:58,633 Because they're Democrats or were Democrats or whatever they are now, it gives a slightly 240 00:19:58,633 --> 00:20:02,800 different lane for Republicans to say, no, I can't go along with that. They're not one of us. 241 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,100 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Let me talk about New Orleans. David what does this attack, 242 00:20:06,100 --> 00:20:10,166 this deadly attack, say to you about the nature of the ISIS threat to America? 243 00:20:10,166 --> 00:20:15,166 DAVID IGNATIUS: So, ISIS continues as an idea. I've walked the streets of Raqqa, 244 00:20:18,700 --> 00:20:23,700 the ISIS capital in Syria. It was obliterated. It looked like Gaza. Every building had been 245 00:20:27,133 --> 00:20:32,133 destroyed, damaged. There was really nothing left in the center of town. So, 246 00:20:34,233 --> 00:20:37,500 that enormous military power was brought to bear against ISIS. But you can't destroy an 247 00:20:39,500 --> 00:20:43,633 idea. And the ISIS idea remains powerful online. I'm told that ISIS's influence in 248 00:20:46,300 --> 00:20:51,266 Africa is increasing. An ISIS spinoff, ISIS-K, that came out of Afghanistan, attacked Iran, 249 00:20:54,266 --> 00:20:59,233 killed scores of people in Iran, attacked Russia, killed scores of people in Russia. 250 00:21:01,166 --> 00:21:04,600 So, what I hear from counterterrorism professionals is this sense that the 251 00:21:07,900 --> 00:21:12,900 inspired homegrown violent extremist, which is what Shamsud-Din Jabbar is, 252 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:19,633 there's no evidence of a connection other than virtually online to a network. Those people can 253 00:21:21,900 --> 00:21:26,066 do enormous damage. The technique that he used, vehicle ramming. The head of the National Center 254 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:34,300 for Counterterrorism was talking about that two months ago. Nobody paid any attention. 255 00:21:34,300 --> 00:21:37,366 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It's a more common technique in the Middle East than it is here. 256 00:21:37,366 --> 00:21:39,466 DAVID IGNATIUS: In Europe, I mean, so, anyway, 257 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,100 the problem is there. It's different. But the problem, you can't kill an idea. 258 00:21:46,433 --> 00:21:48,466 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. I want to remind everyone 259 00:21:48,466 --> 00:21:52,033 around the table of Trump's confidence, President-elect Trump's confidence that 260 00:21:53,900 --> 00:21:57,633 he had defeated the Islamic State. Let's listen to this for one second. 261 00:21:59,433 --> 00:22:01,700 DONALD TRUMP, U.S. President-Elect: I defeated 100 percent of the ISIS 262 00:22:01,700 --> 00:22:05,666 caliphate. Everyone said that couldn't be done, and I did it in a matter of weeks. All of the 263 00:22:05,666 --> 00:22:10,666 presidents before me failed for 20 years. I defeated ISIS in just a matter of weeks. 264 00:22:12,733 --> 00:22:13,633 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes. So, 265 00:22:15,466 --> 00:22:19,266 that's a lot of confidence. That's in 2023. That's a lot of confidence. 266 00:22:21,566 --> 00:22:25,000 Peter, talk about what they actually can do, especially as it relates to the defeat of an idea. 267 00:22:27,266 --> 00:22:29,733 PETER BAKER: Yes. I mean, I think, look, if he's talking about defeating the caliphate, you know, 268 00:22:29,733 --> 00:22:34,133 the territorial control that ISIS had in Syria and Iraq, he can claim, obviously, 269 00:22:34,133 --> 00:22:38,600 some credit there. Obviously, they did not control what they did eight years ago. But 270 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,066 as David just said, I mean, that doesn't mean that they've gone away, or people like them. 271 00:22:42,066 --> 00:22:47,066 And I think that it's one of these things where America has gotten a little contented that we 272 00:22:49,366 --> 00:22:52,633 haven't faced this at home in a while. It's been 23 years now since 9/11. We thought that we'd be 273 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,000 seeing this all the time. We really didn't, and we especially haven't seen it in the 274 00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:01,633 last number of eight, ten years here at home. And so it only takes one guy, one, you know, 275 00:23:03,700 --> 00:23:06,666 radicalized guy to suddenly pick up a truck and it doesn't -- it's really hard to defeat that. 276 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,933 So, the intelligence networks have done a remarkable job of 277 00:23:10,933 --> 00:23:15,066 actually finding plenty of plots and stopping them in advance. But are you 278 00:23:15,066 --> 00:23:17,800 going to be able to be 100 percent successful all the time? That's it. 279 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:22,800 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: And, Leigh Ann, quickly, do you see any sense yet from the president-elect's 280 00:23:24,866 --> 00:23:29,533 transition team that they have answers for homegrown but foreign-inspired terrorism? 281 00:23:31,900 --> 00:23:35,700 Are we -- or is this something that they're even been talking about before this New Orleans attack? 282 00:23:35,700 --> 00:23:40,700 LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: There's still mostly blaming this attack on people crossing the border. 283 00:23:41,866 --> 00:23:43,900 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Which this was not. 284 00:23:43,900 --> 00:23:46,700 LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: Which this was not. And so, no, there is no indication of 285 00:23:46,700 --> 00:23:51,700 that. They are blaming -- placing all the blame on President Biden, unable to keep the country safe, 286 00:23:53,666 --> 00:23:56,933 the borders are open. And so, no, we have not heard much from the transition. 287 00:23:58,766 --> 00:24:00,733 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It's interesting because you really do set yourself up 288 00:24:00,733 --> 00:24:04,900 as president if you promise the level of security that Trump is promising. 289 00:24:07,066 --> 00:24:10,300 DAVID IGNATIUS: So, you know, an interesting problem for -- the FBI depends on cooperation 290 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,700 from the Muslim communities in America. You know, the sheikh in the mosque, who says, you know, 291 00:24:18,066 --> 00:24:21,000 so and so has been acting strange recently. Those people have been cooperating since 9/11. It's one 292 00:24:23,266 --> 00:24:28,000 reason that there's been relatively, you know, limited domestic terrorism. You can see -- you 293 00:24:31,333 --> 00:24:36,333 saw in the vote in Michigan, the anger that is in the Muslim communities in America now. Gaza 294 00:24:38,666 --> 00:24:43,666 has changed the way people feel. A county official said to me, Gaza put a jolt into 295 00:24:46,233 --> 00:24:51,233 the jihadist movement that's going to last for a generation. That anger is going to persist. 296 00:24:53,366 --> 00:24:56,733 And if you're the FBI trying to get that sheikh in Detroit to tell you who's acting strange, 297 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,333 it's going to be much harder now, and that's Trump's problem. 298 00:25:00,333 --> 00:25:03,633 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. And we're going to see in the coming days and weeks the 299 00:25:03,633 --> 00:25:08,633 degree to which the Trump administration wants to focus on, the FBI's alleged sins 300 00:25:10,733 --> 00:25:15,733 against Trump versus this whole range of national security and criminal threats. But 301 00:25:17,766 --> 00:25:20,833 that's -- we're going to -- after January 20th, we might have a better sense of it. 302 00:25:20,833 --> 00:25:24,033 Unfortunately, we do need to leave it there for now. I do want to thank our 303 00:25:24,033 --> 00:25:28,000 panelists for being here. And to our viewers at home, thank you. 304 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,066 For more on the war against ISIS, please visit theatlantic.com. 305 00:25:31,066 --> 00:25:34,433 I'm Jeffrey Goldberg. Goodnight from Washington.