WEBVTT 00:01.366 --> 00:03.366 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Mike Johnson keeps the speaker's 00:03.366 --> 00:07.200 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% gavel after Donald Trump convinces House Republican holdouts to switch their vote. 00:07.200 --> 00:11.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And we are just days away from witnessing something remarkable, Vice President 00:11.033 --> 00:16.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Kamala Harris presiding over Congress' certification of Trump's reelection, next. 01:20.433 --> 01:25.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Good evening and welcome to Washington Week. This coming Monday, January 6th to be exact, 01:27.500 --> 01:31.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Kamala Harris will preside over Congress as it ratifies the election of Donald Trump. 01:31.066 --> 01:35.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Two weeks later, Trump takes the oath of office and immediately plans to implement his agenda, 01:35.433 --> 01:39.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% but he'll also confront a long list of preexisting challenges, including, 01:39.500 --> 01:44.500 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% as we saw this week in New Orleans, the continued salience of the Islamic State terror group. 01:46.633 --> 01:49.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Joining me tonight to discuss these issues and more, Peter Baker, the chief White House 01:49.300 --> 01:54.233 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% correspondent for The New York Times, Leigh Ann Caldwell is an anchor for Washington Post Live and 01:54.233 --> 01:59.200 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% a co-author of The Early Brief, Francesca Chambers is a White House correspondent for USA Today and 02:01.600 --> 02:05.333 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% David Ignatius is a columnist for The Washington Post. Thank you very much, all of you. Happy New 02:07.666 --> 02:11.200 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% Year to all of you. Thank you for being here. Very serious opening days of this year, I have to say. 02:14.033 --> 02:19.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I want to turn -- before we get to New Orleans and the attack, I want to talk about the action 02:21.300 --> 02:24.666 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% on the Hill today. Leigh Ann, why don't you give us a little understanding about how Mike Johnson 02:26.966 --> 02:31.300 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% managed to become speaker again despite a lot of tempestuous emotions in the Republican Caucus? 02:36.100 --> 02:40.033 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% LEIGH ANN CALDWELL, Anchor, Washington Post Live: Yes, so ultimately it was not necessarily a repeat 02:40.033 --> 02:45.033 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% of two years ago, the four days and 15 rounds of Kevin McCarthy trying to win the speaker's gavel, 02:46.866 --> 02:49.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% but it was still dramatic. He did it on the first round, but, ultimately, 02:49.833 --> 02:54.766 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% it came down to Donald Trump. There were some holdouts, people who didn't want to 02:54.766 --> 02:59.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% vote for Mike Johnson, voted for someone else. And those people got on the -- Donald Trump got 03:01.900 --> 03:06.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% on the phone with those people and ultimately negotiated and worked out a path forward. 03:08.733 --> 03:10.833 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: What did they want? 03:10.833 --> 03:14.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: So, it was -- generally speaking, what they wanted and what they 03:16.933 --> 03:20.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% got is a commitment from Mike Johnson, which he says there was no deal, but in a reaffirmation, 03:23.333 --> 03:28.333 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Johnson says, to reduce spending, and also to give more power to committees and the rank and 03:31.600 --> 03:36.600 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% file members rather than leadership negotiating all sorts of big bills instead of spending bills. 03:38.666 --> 03:42.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And even Mike Johnson says that that a large factor had to do with Donald Trump. I asked 03:44.966 --> 03:49.500 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% him that tonight. I said, what role did Trump play? And he said, Donald Trump has been -- is 03:51.800 --> 03:55.000 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% perhaps the most powerful president in the country's history, he says, or most influential, 03:57.300 --> 04:00.400 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% and that he absolutely played a major factor in Mike Johnson winning the speaker's battle tonight. 04:02.366 --> 04:06.733 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% So, there was a lot of cajoling. There's still a divided Republican conference, 04:08.133 --> 04:10.600 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% but, ultimately, Trump was able to, before the vote, 04:10.600 --> 04:15.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% turn a lot of members in favor of Johnson. And then in the most ultimately dire times of 04:17.633 --> 04:21.566 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% today where Johnson didn't have the votes, Donald Trump was able to get them there. 04:21.566 --> 04:23.733 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: FDR might want to have a word with Mike Johnson 04:23.733 --> 04:27.433 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% on the question of who's the most powerful, but we'll put that aside. 04:27.433 --> 04:29.000 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: I guess influential is what he said. 04:29.000 --> 04:31.900 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: We can have that argument another time. 04:31.900 --> 04:36.900 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% David, I'm curious, this is interesting because Trump chose stability over chaos in this case. 04:40.600 --> 04:42.600 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% DAVID IGNATIUS, Columnist, The Washington Post: Momentarily. 04:42.600 --> 04:46.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Well, no. But, I mean, what do you take from Johnson's success? 04:48.266 --> 04:52.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% DAVID IGNATIUS: I thought that today's events were a piece of political theater. The right 04:54.466 --> 04:57.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% got to flex its muscles. Trump got to show everybody I'm in charge. I can make it happen. 05:00.100 --> 05:03.833 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% I think the interesting question, Jeff, is whether Trump really wants to set about being the leader 05:06.300 --> 05:11.300 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% of a governing party. He's shown ways that he's trying to be pragmatic, push the extreme right 05:13.466 --> 05:18.333 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% in his party down on the question of the H-1B visas, on questions of an abortion mandate, on 05:22.233 --> 05:27.233 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% some other cultural issues. He's been pushing the right away and saying I'm going to govern myself, 05:30.266 --> 05:34.666 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% and I think he has the ambition to govern the whole country. He keeps saying that, 05:34.666 --> 05:39.666 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% you know, this is a movement, there's never been a president who can solve problems the way I can. 05:41.933 --> 05:46.700 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% I keep coming back to the question with Trump, whether he is about trying to build the country 05:49.066 --> 05:52.433 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% or seek revenge for the things that he feels were done to him. You see both of them -- saw both of 05:54.766 --> 05:58.733 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% them today actually in a strange tweet in the very early morning hours as a kind of American carnage, 06:00.566 --> 06:04.800 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% and then this effort to rally the Congress around his chosen candidate as 06:04.800 --> 06:09.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% speaker. Which Trump is going to prevail after inauguration day? I couldn't say. 06:11.300 --> 06:12.700 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Peter, do you know which Trump is going 06:12.700 --> 06:14.900 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% to prevail after inauguration day? Let us know. 06:14.900 --> 06:17.033 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% PETER BAKER, Chief White House Correspondent, The New York Times: Yes, no, but if past is prologue, 06:17.033 --> 06:21.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I think we should not expect the unifying leader that he sometimes pretends he wants 06:23.566 --> 06:27.066 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% to be. It's just not his metier, to use a word I heard recently around this table, 06:28.566 --> 06:31.600 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% that's not the way he rolls. He does have moments where he 06:31.600 --> 06:35.233 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% wants a little stability over chaos, where he feels it will benefit him. 06:35.233 --> 06:39.400 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% But let's face it, he's working with one party, not two, right? He's not trying to 06:39.400 --> 06:43.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% work across the aisle. He's not having any conversations that we know of with Democrats 06:43.200 --> 06:46.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% to talk about their priorities or how to have joint priorities. They actually could come 06:46.300 --> 06:50.200 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% to deals on some really important things. There are immigration deals, for instance, 06:50.200 --> 06:55.200 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% to be had. If he wanted to have them on DACA, you know, with some border stuff, that kind of thing, 06:57.300 --> 06:59.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% he has indicated no interest in that. And his appointments of, or his choice of people like 06:59.633 --> 07:04.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Kash Patel for the FBI and Pete Hegseth for the defense indicates to me that retribution 07:04.466 --> 07:08.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% is high on the list, whether it also comes along with building some policies or not. 07:08.700 --> 07:12.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But on the other hand, I mean, to go back to David's point, just to follow this, 07:12.866 --> 07:17.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% is this an indication that there's a learning curve here, that he's learned some lessons 07:17.633 --> 07:22.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% from the first term and is trying to apply the normal rules of politics and, you know, 07:24.500 --> 07:29.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% trying to marginalized to some degree the extreme right? I mean, is there -- 07:29.100 --> 07:31.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% DAVID IGNATIUS: Remember just a couple weeks ago, and we uncovered this, you know, 07:31.633 --> 07:36.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% he tried to blow up a spending deal that had just been sealed off by Mike Johnson, and it 07:36.066 --> 07:41.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% was 40 Republicans who said, no, we're not going along with you on your decision to try to punt the 07:43.300 --> 07:46.400 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% debt ceiling off until later in the presidency. So, they rebelled against him and maybe he's 07:48.766 --> 07:51.666 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% learned from that a little bit. But I would be cautious about overstating how far he's changed. 07:53.633 --> 07:56.733 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Francesca, let's talk about this House Republicans, 218 to 215, 07:59.166 --> 08:02.466 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% it's about as close as you can get. You know, and this is what Thomas Massie, who I think Johnson's, 08:04.733 --> 08:08.600 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% at least at the moment, most ferocious opponent, had to say before the vote on the Matt Gaetz show 08:10.800 --> 08:14.200 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% on the One America Network, yes, that Matt Gaetz now has a television show. Things move really 08:14.200 --> 08:19.200 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% quickly these days, don't they? Anyway, this is what Massie said. He said you could pull all my 08:21.300 --> 08:24.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% fingernails out. You can shove bamboo up in them. You can start cutting off my fingers. 08:24.533 --> 08:29.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I am not voting for Mike Johnson tomorrow. And you could take that to the bank. That's -- if 08:32.600 --> 08:37.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Mike Johnson had a comfortable buffer, that's one thing, but he has no buffer, whatsoever. 08:39.633 --> 08:43.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% So, how stable is this group of Republicans who are now for the moment backing Mike 08:46.000 --> 08:49.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Johnson? Is he going to be speaker, in other words, at the end of the year? 08:49.500 --> 08:51.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% FRANCESCA CHAMBERS, White House Correspondent, USA Today: Well, it partly comes down to what 08:51.666 --> 08:56.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% is the other option, and that's what they ran into this week. If you don't want Mike Johnson, 08:56.233 --> 09:01.233 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% then who else do you want? And how do you get a majority of Republicans behind that person? We 09:03.333 --> 09:07.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% saw Donald Trump come in and help to save him. You mentioned his own self-interest. I mean, 09:09.233 --> 09:13.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% he wants to come in. He wants to be able to get his agenda done. He has four years to do so. He 09:15.833 --> 09:19.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% doesn't have an eight-year term that he can look forward to here. He has the four years 09:19.533 --> 09:24.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% to get things done. And we've already seen him start to make aggressive moves in that direction. 09:24.066 --> 09:27.300 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% But as you pointed out with Massie, Trump's influences, 09:27.300 --> 09:31.966 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% even within this new Republican Party, is sometimes limited. 09:31.966 --> 09:36.966 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes. Peter, I'm not asking for predictions, but how stable is this majority? 09:39.700 --> 09:42.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% PETER BAKER: Well, it's not stable at all, obviously. I mean, to your point, 09:42.700 --> 09:45.933 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% the second they come back to this economic question in March, 09:45.933 --> 09:49.000 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% the financial stuff they're going to have to do in March, you're going to see the same nine 09:49.000 --> 09:54.000 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% people. There were nine people who tried to flex their muscle today, you know, trying to enforce on 09:56.133 --> 09:59.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Johnson commitments they believe he's made about spending. That would probably be impractical. 10:01.366 --> 10:03.366 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And Johnson's going to have to talk with the Democrats probably if he wants to pass some. 10:03.366 --> 10:08.366 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: And that number nine that were held out today is important, 10:10.300 --> 10:12.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% because that number is very important. Because number nine is now the number 10:12.600 --> 10:17.466 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% of Republicans it takes to vacate the chair for speakership. During Kevin McCarthy last Congress, 10:20.466 --> 10:22.700 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% he got in trouble because it just took one Republican. 10:22.700 --> 10:25.333 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. He agreed to like his own poison pill. 10:25.333 --> 10:28.466 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: Yes, exactly, but now that number has been lifted to nine. And so that 10:28.466 --> 10:33.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% was a very purposeful symbolic moment on the House floor today from these critics of Mike 10:35.533 --> 10:40.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Johnson to tell Johnson, we are watching you and we have the numbers if you do not 10:42.533 --> 10:46.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% get spending under control, if you negotiate with Democrats, if you don't enact our agenda. 10:48.133 --> 10:49.900 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Are there more than nine? In other words, 10:49.900 --> 10:54.166 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% is there some zone of comfort for those punitive rebels? 10:54.166 --> 10:58.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: It depends on how bad it gets. But, yes, there's three dozen members in 10:58.833 --> 11:03.166 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the far right Freedom Caucus, and so there could potentially be a lot more than nine. 11:03.166 --> 11:08.166 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Peter, let me change the subject to something historic. January 11:10.266 --> 11:13.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% 6th is coming. It's exactly four years since the insurrection, the violent insurrection of 11:15.866 --> 11:19.700 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% January 6th. We're about to witness Kamala Harris, Democratic vice president, presidential candidate, 11:21.666 --> 11:25.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% losing presidential candidate, oversee the ratification of Donald Trump's election. 11:28.100 --> 11:33.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Going back four years, we all covered this, some of us, very up close. It's 11:35.366 --> 11:39.633 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% hard to imagine that we're here. Given the way much of the country felt about Donald Trump in 11:41.933 --> 11:46.333 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% the immediate aftermath of the insurrection, the idea that Donald Trump is about to be peacefully 11:48.666 --> 11:53.500 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% ratified as the next president is striking. I just love to hear your analysis of how we got here. 11:56.033 --> 12:00.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% PETER BAKER: If you woke up on January 7th of 2021 with the glass still shattered on 12:00.500 --> 12:04.300 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% the floor of the Capitol and the smoke rising and the troops are surrounding 12:04.300 --> 12:08.800 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% the building and you had said that Donald Trump will be president in four years, 12:08.800 --> 12:11.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% nobody would have believed that. Anybody who says that today is not telling you 12:11.433 --> 12:15.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the truth. We weren't a hundred percent sure he was going to make it out two more weeks, 12:15.266 --> 12:19.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% right? There was talk that day about whether he might be impeached immediately, 12:19.133 --> 12:23.200 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% whether he would be forced out by Mike Pence in the cabinet in some sort of 25th Amendment thing, 12:23.200 --> 12:27.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% whether something would happen that we couldn't trust him for two more weeks with power. 12:27.266 --> 12:29.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: The Senate was infuriated. 12:29.200 --> 12:31.333 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% PETER BAKER: Senate was infuriated. JEFFREY GOLDBERG: House was infuriated. 12:31.333 --> 12:33.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% PETER BAKER: Of course they were. Lindsey Graham said he was done with him, right? Well, 12:33.466 --> 12:37.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% it turns out he wasn't. And the Republican caucus wasn't done with him either. And 12:37.300 --> 12:40.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the Republican electorate wasn't done with him. That's the most important thing, right? 12:40.633 --> 12:44.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% How did he come back? Well, Kevin McCarthy, of course, gave him a new lease on life by going 12:44.433 --> 12:49.433 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% down to Mar-a-Lago and essentially exonerating him almost. Mitch McConnell decided not to 12:51.500 --> 12:54.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% try to force conviction in the trial that followed the impeachment that happened in 12:54.100 --> 12:58.766 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% the House. But broadly speaking, it turned out that his electorate still wanted him, 12:58.766 --> 13:02.400 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% and that held power over the elected officials who didn't. 13:02.400 --> 13:04.933 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% And that's the real story here, is that they were not -- they did 13:04.933 --> 13:09.866 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% not find what he did on January 6th to be disqualifying. And therefore, 13:09.866 --> 13:12.400 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% the Congress and the elected officials went along with it. 13:12.400 --> 13:14.800 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. I want to talk about the cabinet, 13:14.800 --> 13:19.800 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% the incoming cabinet. We're heading into the thick of confirmation hearings soon. Francesca, 13:22.000 --> 13:26.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% who is the cabinet pick right now who's in the most danger of not getting confirmed? 13:26.400 --> 13:29.133 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% FRANCESCA CHAMBERS: So, this is not going to be that exciting, 13:29.133 --> 13:33.233 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% but everything basically remains the same as it did before we went away. 13:33.233 --> 13:34.533 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Okay, you're right. That's not exciting. 13:34.533 --> 13:35.766 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% FRANCESCA CHAMBERS: I'm sorry. I know. 13:35.766 --> 13:37.900 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Let's move on to sports. 13:37.900 --> 13:40.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% FRANCESCA CHAMBERS: No. But, I mean, realistically, that's what happened, right? You 13:40.233 --> 13:45.033 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% had the questions about Pete Hegseth going into the winter break. I mean, the Senate, the House, 13:47.400 --> 13:50.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% they've been out for a little bit the last couple of weeks. Of course, there have been questions 13:52.133 --> 13:55.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% about Kash Patel. There have been questions about, of course, Kash Patel and the FBI as well. 13:57.666 --> 14:00.833 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% But now the Trump team is making this argument in light of the terrorist attack in New Orleans, that 14:03.433 --> 14:08.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% they need his national security nominees. They need them right away. And so they've been making 14:08.066 --> 14:13.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% this really big push to try and get them confirmed before or rather the week of when he takes office. 14:14.733 --> 14:18.266 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% Now, this is key because that is where the most contentious fights 14:18.266 --> 14:23.266 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% are going to be is over his national security nominees. And so now, though, 14:25.300 --> 14:28.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% you can expect the Senate to try and take those up first earlier in terms of who's 14:30.766 --> 14:35.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% the most in danger. It also depends on do they do these on the same day. Do they split these 14:37.200 --> 14:40.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% up into different days? They want to get them in on January 20th. Is that even possible -- 14:42.200 --> 14:43.966 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Shock and awe, just do it all at once. Flood the zone. 14:43.966 --> 14:46.533 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% FRANCESCA CHAMBERS: I mean, that could be a strategy that 14:46.533 --> 14:51.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% they employ. They have not announced yet, other than Pete Hegseth says on the 14th, 14:51.133 --> 14:53.466 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% when those will be. They have to give seven days notice, 14:53.466 --> 14:57.966 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% so we should know by Monday or Tuesday if they plan to have any other ones earlier in the week. 14:57.966 --> 14:59.833 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: David, let me reframe the question. Any 14:59.833 --> 15:02.366 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% of these nominees in danger from your perspective? 15:02.366 --> 15:04.400 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% DAVID IGNATIUS: So, I would think Tulsi 15:04.400 --> 15:09.366 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Gabbard as director of National Intelligence is very unlikely. 15:09.366 --> 15:10.500 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Unlikely? 15:10.500 --> 15:11.866 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% DAVID IGNATIUS: Yes. I think the -- 15:11.866 --> 15:13.633 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: What are you hearing on the Hill? 15:13.633 --> 15:15.733 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% DAVID IGNATIUS: I think the Senate Intelligence Committee is taking a 15:15.733 --> 15:19.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% very careful look. I think they've got a lot of material to look at. I think there 15:21.033 --> 15:24.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% are significant questions concerns people have about her. I think Bashar al Assad, 15:26.266 --> 15:29.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the person she went to pay court to, getting deposed in Syria didn't help her nomination. So, 15:32.000 --> 15:36.700 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% I'd be surprised if she got through. I think Pete Hegseth's nomination is going to be difficult. 15:38.900 --> 15:43.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% It's striking after the New Orleans terrorist attack, which we're going to talk about, 15:45.866 --> 15:49.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% how we all turn to the FBI, the CIA, our national security institutions. You know, 15:52.666 --> 15:57.666 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% we need them and people feel that deeply. And I'd be surprised if there isn't a deeper 15:59.866 --> 16:04.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% discussion in the Senate about these nominees. It really matters who's head of the Pentagon's 16:06.100 --> 16:10.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% hardest management job in government. Is Pete Hegseth really ready to do that? Is 16:13.000 --> 16:16.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Kash Patel really ready to lead an FBI, which we're going to need desperately to deal with 16:18.100 --> 16:22.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% counterterrorism issues? So, I'd be amazed if the Senate didn't really take those issues up. 16:24.133 --> 16:27.466 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Peter, any chance from your perspective that 16:27.466 --> 16:31.900 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% Kash Patel doesn't get through because people realize that, oh, you know what, 16:31.900 --> 16:36.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% maybe we need somebody with a broad investigative and antiterrorism experience? 16:38.600 --> 16:40.833 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% PETER BAKER: A chance? Yes. It's a question of whether Trump does have 16:40.833 --> 16:44.466 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% the ability to discipline and impose his will on the Senate. 16:44.466 --> 16:47.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Now, the Senate is different than the House, right? You have individuals there who won't 16:47.833 --> 16:52.200 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% be running again while Donald Trump is president. They have six-year terms. They have a little bit 16:52.200 --> 16:57.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% more sense of independence and a sense of their own importance. And so there are opportunities, 16:59.033 --> 17:01.300 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% I think, for picking off three, four, possibly, members that would say, no, 17:01.300 --> 17:05.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% this is too much. Kash Patel may be a fine candidate. Political hatchet man, 17:05.033 --> 17:09.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% but putting him in charge of the nation's premier law enforcement agency at a time 17:09.033 --> 17:13.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% when 15 people are being run down in New Orleans may not be the best idea. But they're 17:13.900 --> 17:16.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% not going to say that right away. They're going to see how these pairings play out. 17:16.933 --> 17:21.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Leigh Ann, RFK Jr. in any danger? 17:21.100 --> 17:25.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: So, I get a lot of mixed, mixed responses from Republican senators about 17:25.533 --> 17:30.533 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% RFK Jr. I like asked these senators to rank who's in the most trouble, and some said RFK is at the 17:33.066 --> 17:37.466 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% top of their list. Others say that he's going to be totally fine. So, it's really hard to tell. 17:37.466 --> 17:42.466 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% But I will say one of the challenges for RFK Jr. is not about his, you know, vaccine skepticism or 17:47.100 --> 17:52.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% his, you know, unorthodox views on health. It's from Republicans the abortion issue. And so he, 17:56.533 --> 18:01.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I am told, has been asked a lot of questions in his private meetings about the issue of 18:01.066 --> 18:06.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% abortion and what he's going to do about that, running these health agencies. And 18:06.000 --> 18:11.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I am told that his response is that he will do what Donald Trump's will is. 18:13.133 --> 18:17.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% But what's important with not only RFK Jr., but all of these nominees is there's going to 18:17.233 --> 18:22.233 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% be public hearings, and every single senator is going to have to make a public determination in 18:26.400 --> 18:31.400 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% large part based on these hearings and how the public responds to those two. These nominees 18:33.466 --> 18:37.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% could totally bomb in these hearings or they could just pass through with flying colors. 18:37.133 --> 18:39.833 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% FRANCESCA CHAMBERS: And, Peter, and you brought up the six year terms, 18:39.833 --> 18:44.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% but there are a few key senators who will be up in 2026, such as Susan Collins, who has announced 18:47.100 --> 18:50.533 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% that she plans to run for reelection. And she is someone who we all have our eye on to determine 18:50.533 --> 18:55.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% how she might vote. So, some of the people won't necessarily be there for the next six years. 18:57.033 --> 18:59.400 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% But as you were talking, Leigh Ann, about the hearings, I mean, 18:59.400 --> 19:04.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% that's what I was hearing from senators as well. They really -- even the Republicans, 19:04.133 --> 19:09.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% they take their advice and consent role very seriously. Even if they are inclined, 19:11.200 --> 19:14.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the Republicans, to end up approving Donald Trump's cabinet nominees, they do want to see 19:14.800 --> 19:19.800 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% the hearings. They do want to ask questions. And then, you know, even some of the people who have 19:22.166 --> 19:24.466 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% called holdouts so far might end up coming around his side, but they're not going to do that. We're 19:24.466 --> 19:27.533 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% not going to hear how Republicans plan to vote until after these hearings take place. 19:27.533 --> 19:29.500 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% DAVID IGNATIUS: Don't forget that the Republican 19:29.500 --> 19:33.900 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% caucus in secret voted against Trump's desire to have Senator Thune as the 19:35.933 --> 19:39.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% majority leader. That was a significant statement, I think, by Senate Republicans. 19:39.400 --> 19:41.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% PETER BAKER: But in secret. 19:41.400 --> 19:42.366 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: In secret. 19:42.366 --> 19:44.366 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% PETER BAKER: True, in secret. 19:44.366 --> 19:46.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: And they did it. And in secret, they probably will vote not 19:46.900 --> 19:50.566 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% to have Trump as president after January 6th either. But that would be in secret. 19:50.566 --> 19:54.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% PETER BAKER: By the way, David's point and Leigh Ann's point is right about Gabbard and RFK Jr. 19:54.533 --> 19:58.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Because they're Democrats or were Democrats or whatever they are now, it gives a slightly 19:58.633 --> 20:02.800 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% different lane for Republicans to say, no, I can't go along with that. They're not one of us. 20:02.800 --> 20:06.100 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Let me talk about New Orleans. David what does this attack, 20:06.100 --> 20:10.166 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% this deadly attack, say to you about the nature of the ISIS threat to America? 20:10.166 --> 20:15.166 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% DAVID IGNATIUS: So, ISIS continues as an idea. I've walked the streets of Raqqa, 20:18.700 --> 20:23.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the ISIS capital in Syria. It was obliterated. It looked like Gaza. Every building had been 20:27.133 --> 20:32.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% destroyed, damaged. There was really nothing left in the center of town. So, 20:34.233 --> 20:37.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% that enormous military power was brought to bear against ISIS. But you can't destroy an 20:39.500 --> 20:43.633 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% idea. And the ISIS idea remains powerful online. I'm told that ISIS's influence in 20:46.300 --> 20:51.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Africa is increasing. An ISIS spinoff, ISIS-K, that came out of Afghanistan, attacked Iran, 20:54.266 --> 20:59.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% killed scores of people in Iran, attacked Russia, killed scores of people in Russia. 21:01.166 --> 21:04.600 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% So, what I hear from counterterrorism professionals is this sense that the 21:07.900 --> 21:12.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% inspired homegrown violent extremist, which is what Shamsud-Din Jabbar is, 21:15.200 --> 21:19.633 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% there's no evidence of a connection other than virtually online to a network. Those people can 21:21.900 --> 21:26.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% do enormous damage. The technique that he used, vehicle ramming. The head of the National Center 21:30.400 --> 21:34.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% for Counterterrorism was talking about that two months ago. Nobody paid any attention. 21:34.300 --> 21:37.366 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It's a more common technique in the Middle East than it is here. 21:37.366 --> 21:39.466 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% DAVID IGNATIUS: In Europe, I mean, so, anyway, 21:41.400 --> 21:45.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the problem is there. It's different. But the problem, you can't kill an idea. 21:46.433 --> 21:48.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. I want to remind everyone 21:48.466 --> 21:52.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% around the table of Trump's confidence, President-elect Trump's confidence that 21:53.900 --> 21:57.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% he had defeated the Islamic State. Let's listen to this for one second. 21:59.433 --> 22:01.700 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% DONALD TRUMP, U.S. President-Elect: I defeated 100 percent of the ISIS 22:01.700 --> 22:05.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% caliphate. Everyone said that couldn't be done, and I did it in a matter of weeks. All of the 22:05.666 --> 22:10.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% presidents before me failed for 20 years. I defeated ISIS in just a matter of weeks. 22:12.733 --> 22:13.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes. So, 22:15.466 --> 22:19.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% that's a lot of confidence. That's in 2023. That's a lot of confidence. 22:21.566 --> 22:25.000 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Peter, talk about what they actually can do, especially as it relates to the defeat of an idea. 22:27.266 --> 22:29.733 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% PETER BAKER: Yes. I mean, I think, look, if he's talking about defeating the caliphate, you know, 22:29.733 --> 22:34.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the territorial control that ISIS had in Syria and Iraq, he can claim, obviously, 22:34.133 --> 22:38.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% some credit there. Obviously, they did not control what they did eight years ago. But 22:38.600 --> 22:42.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% as David just said, I mean, that doesn't mean that they've gone away, or people like them. 22:42.066 --> 22:47.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% And I think that it's one of these things where America has gotten a little contented that we 22:49.366 --> 22:52.633 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% haven't faced this at home in a while. It's been 23 years now since 9/11. We thought that we'd be 22:54.800 --> 22:57.000 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% seeing this all the time. We really didn't, and we especially haven't seen it in the 22:57.000 --> 23:01.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% last number of eight, ten years here at home. And so it only takes one guy, one, you know, 23:03.700 --> 23:06.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% radicalized guy to suddenly pick up a truck and it doesn't -- it's really hard to defeat that. 23:08.200 --> 23:10.933 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% So, the intelligence networks have done a remarkable job of 23:10.933 --> 23:15.066 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% actually finding plenty of plots and stopping them in advance. But are you 23:15.066 --> 23:17.800 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% going to be able to be 100 percent successful all the time? That's it. 23:17.800 --> 23:22.800 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: And, Leigh Ann, quickly, do you see any sense yet from the president-elect's 23:24.866 --> 23:29.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% transition team that they have answers for homegrown but foreign-inspired terrorism? 23:31.900 --> 23:35.700 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Are we -- or is this something that they're even been talking about before this New Orleans attack? 23:35.700 --> 23:40.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: There's still mostly blaming this attack on people crossing the border. 23:41.866 --> 23:43.900 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Which this was not. 23:43.900 --> 23:46.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: Which this was not. And so, no, there is no indication of 23:46.700 --> 23:51.700 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% that. They are blaming -- placing all the blame on President Biden, unable to keep the country safe, 23:53.666 --> 23:56.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the borders are open. And so, no, we have not heard much from the transition. 23:58.766 --> 24:00.733 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It's interesting because you really do set yourself up 24:00.733 --> 24:04.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% as president if you promise the level of security that Trump is promising. 24:07.066 --> 24:10.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% DAVID IGNATIUS: So, you know, an interesting problem for -- the FBI depends on cooperation 24:12.400 --> 24:15.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% from the Muslim communities in America. You know, the sheikh in the mosque, who says, you know, 24:18.066 --> 24:21.000 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% so and so has been acting strange recently. Those people have been cooperating since 9/11. It's one 24:23.266 --> 24:28.000 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% reason that there's been relatively, you know, limited domestic terrorism. You can see -- you 24:31.333 --> 24:36.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% saw in the vote in Michigan, the anger that is in the Muslim communities in America now. Gaza 24:38.666 --> 24:43.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% has changed the way people feel. A county official said to me, Gaza put a jolt into 24:46.233 --> 24:51.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the jihadist movement that's going to last for a generation. That anger is going to persist. 24:53.366 --> 24:56.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And if you're the FBI trying to get that sheikh in Detroit to tell you who's acting strange, 24:58.200 --> 25:00.333 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% it's going to be much harder now, and that's Trump's problem. 25:00.333 --> 25:03.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. And we're going to see in the coming days and weeks the 25:03.633 --> 25:08.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% degree to which the Trump administration wants to focus on, the FBI's alleged sins 25:10.733 --> 25:15.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% against Trump versus this whole range of national security and criminal threats. But 25:17.766 --> 25:20.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% that's -- we're going to -- after January 20th, we might have a better sense of it. 25:20.833 --> 25:24.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Unfortunately, we do need to leave it there for now. I do want to thank our 25:24.033 --> 25:28.000 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% panelists for being here. And to our viewers at home, thank you. 25:28.000 --> 25:31.066 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% For more on the war against ISIS, please visit theatlantic.com. 25:31.066 --> 25:34.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% I'm Jeffrey Goldberg. Goodnight from Washington.