1 00:00:01,866 --> 00:00:03,633 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Both the Democratic and Republican presidential tickets 2 00:00:03,633 --> 00:00:07,466 are finally set. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are a month away from 3 00:00:07,466 --> 00:00:11,100 facing each other on a debate stage. It's clear that Trump would rather be 4 00:00:11,100 --> 00:00:16,100 facing Joe Biden and that he doesn't know quite how to counter Harris' surge, next. 5 00:01:17,666 --> 00:01:20,433 Good evening and welcome to Washington Week. 6 00:01:20,433 --> 00:01:24,600 So, Tim Walz is in the race. J.D. Vance is trying to make a positive impact for 7 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:28,433 Donald Trump. Kamala Harris seems to be having a good time, in part, 8 00:01:28,433 --> 00:01:32,466 perhaps because she hasn't given an interview since becoming the Democratic nominee. 9 00:01:32,466 --> 00:01:35,066 As for Trump, in a press conference this week, 10 00:01:35,066 --> 00:01:40,066 he compared the size of his crowds to those of, yes, Martin Luther King, Jr., 11 00:01:42,033 --> 00:01:45,133 and then said some other things that were even more disconnected from observable reality. 12 00:01:45,133 --> 00:01:49,733 I'll discuss observable reality tonight with Peter Baker, the chief White House 13 00:01:49,733 --> 00:01:54,700 correspondent for The New York Times, Susan Glasser is a staff writer at The New Yorker, 14 00:01:56,800 --> 00:01:59,833 Adam Harris is my colleague and a contributing writer at The Atlantic, and Michael Shearer is 15 00:02:02,300 --> 00:02:04,933 a national political reporter at The Washington Post. Okay, so this is observable reality edition. 16 00:02:07,033 --> 00:02:11,666 But before, before we get to observable reality Mar-a-Lago, I want to set the stage a little 17 00:02:13,766 --> 00:02:17,866 bit where we are In the race and where we are in the polling. Adam, maybe you could give us 18 00:02:17,866 --> 00:02:22,866 a little scene-setter since you love crosstabs. You know, I know how you love breaking it down. 19 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:28,233 So, the polls are shifting in Harris' direction what does it mean and does it mean anything? 20 00:02:30,100 --> 00:02:32,266 ADAM HARRIS, Contributing Writer, The Atlantic: I mean, it's so nationally, 21 00:02:32,266 --> 00:02:35,900 right? It's hard to really discern a lot what will happen in November by national polls, 22 00:02:35,900 --> 00:02:39,100 but Kamala Harris is trending, positively, 23 00:02:39,100 --> 00:02:43,933 right? She's running for about four points ahead of Donald Trump in the Marquette poll, 24 00:02:43,933 --> 00:02:48,933 about three points ahead in the PBS poll, which is, you know, right within the margin of error. 25 00:02:51,100 --> 00:02:54,533 But if you kind of dig into that a little bit more, right, you expand the pool outside of 26 00:02:54,533 --> 00:02:59,500 just Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. You add in Kennedy, you add in some of the other. And all 27 00:03:01,833 --> 00:03:06,833 of a sudden the picture becomes really promising for Democrats, right? They never really eclipsed 28 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:13,700 around 40 percent when Biden was the candidate. Now, they're running at about 47 percent, where 29 00:03:15,966 --> 00:03:19,400 Donald Trump is running at around 41 percent, with Kennedy receiving a smaller share of the vote. 30 00:03:21,233 --> 00:03:24,433 So, that really tells you that she's pulling in a base of voter voters 31 00:03:24,433 --> 00:03:28,000 that wasn't necessarily excited about Biden, was looking for an alternative, 32 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:32,333 but now really kind of has that. And if you dig into the states in particular, 33 00:03:32,333 --> 00:03:36,466 Wisconsin was a really -- it is a really interesting example there where voters were 34 00:03:36,466 --> 00:03:41,466 just not enthusiastic about Joe Biden, right? It was about 30-some odd percent 35 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,700 of voters were enthusiastic about voting for Joe Biden. But you add Kamala there 36 00:03:46,700 --> 00:03:51,333 and it jumps up to about the same enthusiasm that Republicans have for voting for Trump. 37 00:03:51,333 --> 00:03:54,833 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes. Peter, does that enthusiasm last? And what do you 38 00:03:54,833 --> 00:03:57,666 take out of all the polls? How much do you take out of all these polls? 39 00:03:57,666 --> 00:03:59,700 PETER BAKER, Chief White House Correspondent, The New York Times: Well, I think, look, 40 00:03:59,700 --> 00:04:02,133 I think this is, enthusiasm is important because you saw a Democratic Party that 41 00:04:02,133 --> 00:04:05,800 until a couple of weeks ago that was incredibly depressed. It was completely depressed. It was 42 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:10,666 in a fugue state. They felt like it was a death march to Election Day. They were 43 00:04:10,666 --> 00:04:14,633 not at all excited about doing it. And why does that matter? Because why would you go 44 00:04:14,633 --> 00:04:19,233 out of your way to go vote if you're not all excited? So, yes, enthusiasm matters. 45 00:04:19,233 --> 00:04:24,200 To see these crowds that she is generating is - - two points about it. One is extraordinary. 46 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:28,033 Every Biden rally I've gone to in the last three or four years comes nowhere 47 00:04:28,033 --> 00:04:33,033 close to the worst rally she's had in terms of size, energy, and enthusiasm. 48 00:04:34,233 --> 00:04:36,433 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: And on the joy meter. 49 00:04:36,433 --> 00:04:38,633 PETER BAKER: And on the joy meter, exactly. And then, secondly, it's driving Trump nuts, 50 00:04:38,633 --> 00:04:42,233 right? You saw that yesterday. He says, oh my gosh, he's only got a thousand people. I get 10, 51 00:04:42,233 --> 00:04:47,233 20, 30 times as many people as she has, not true. Tonight in Arizona, she'll have 20,000 people. She 52 00:04:49,633 --> 00:04:53,200 had 15,000 and 12,000 crowds in the Midwest this week. These are Trump-size crowds. And it doesn't 53 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:58,866 mean she's going to win. It means she's at least caught up to Biden -- or caught up to Trump. 54 00:04:58,866 --> 00:05:02,200 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But, Susan, my question is on this question of, 55 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:07,200 is this sustainable enthusiasm and perennial joy, 56 00:05:09,266 --> 00:05:13,066 or is this relief that it's not, what did you say, the fugue state death march? Peter 57 00:05:15,233 --> 00:05:20,200 got really -- he went really low. He went way down there. But, I mean, is this sustainable? 58 00:05:21,900 --> 00:05:23,433 SUSAN GLASSER, Staff Writer, The New Yorker: Well, first of all it, 59 00:05:23,433 --> 00:05:27,700 it's been a long time in our politics since the word joy was 60 00:05:27,700 --> 00:05:32,000 trending. It certainly wasn't on my bingo card for August of 2024. 61 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:34,200 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It certainly has never been spoken on this show. 62 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:38,866 SUSAN GLASSER: No, wait. Well, you know, I mean, I feel like I've written the words doom loop, you 63 00:05:38,866 --> 00:05:43,866 know, like a lot more times than I've written the words joy as a factor in American politics. You 64 00:05:45,933 --> 00:05:49,933 have to go back, it seems to me, maybe Obama 2008, you know. But even then you could say that was 65 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,866 more inspirational. Peter and I were talking the other day. Maybe it was -- you know, you have to 66 00:05:54,866 --> 00:05:59,866 go back to 1992 and the Bill Clinton-Al Gore, you know, jubilant duo coming out of the Democratic 67 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:07,800 Convention in New York City. Whatever, you know, your analogy is it's been a while, first of all. 68 00:06:10,066 --> 00:06:13,333 Second of all, I do think to the polls, there is an interesting question I have, which is, Harris 69 00:06:15,566 --> 00:06:19,700 has clearly consolidated the Democratic vote that had not been consolidated under Biden, right? So, 70 00:06:21,733 --> 00:06:24,933 a lot of the reason for Biden's softness in the polls was because Democratic voters or 71 00:06:24,933 --> 00:06:29,933 Democratic-leaning independents, you know, they just were uncomfortable casting another vote for 72 00:06:31,900 --> 00:06:35,033 Biden. It wasn't that, you know, Harris has not converted a ton of Republicans. 73 00:06:35,033 --> 00:06:40,033 So, I think the question is, does she not just pull even with Donald Trump and put us right 74 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:45,200 back into essentially a dead even election, or are we going to see her coming out of the convention 75 00:06:47,433 --> 00:06:51,666 with something more approximating a lead, even if a small lead? I don't know the answer to that. 76 00:06:52,866 --> 00:06:55,166 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. You know the answer? 77 00:06:55,166 --> 00:06:57,633 MICHAEL SCHERER, National Political Reporter, The Washington Post: Well, I think that's the 78 00:06:57,633 --> 00:06:59,866 right point that Susan made that right now we're back to consolidating some of that. But if you go 79 00:07:02,300 --> 00:07:06,500 back to 2020, Biden won that race by four points. If you look at the polling averages now, she's up 80 00:07:06,500 --> 00:07:11,500 by one point. If you go back to 2020, at this point in 2020, Biden was ahead by seven points. 81 00:07:13,266 --> 00:07:16,533 So, she doesn't yet have the full Biden coalition behind her. There's still, 82 00:07:16,533 --> 00:07:21,533 if you talk to the Biden campaign, a lot of Biden voters from 2020 who will say in focus groups or 83 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:27,500 will tell pollsters, I don't know if I want to vote. This is all kind of depressing. I don't 84 00:07:27,500 --> 00:07:31,633 really like Trump, but this is not something I'm excited about. So, she still has a ways to go. 85 00:07:31,633 --> 00:07:35,500 And I think the real question is whether, the next two weeks, those people get there, 86 00:07:35,500 --> 00:07:39,366 and we walk into September, and she's back where Biden was at this point in 2020. 87 00:07:39,366 --> 00:07:44,366 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Michael, talk about the role of the vice presidential nominees 88 00:07:46,500 --> 00:07:50,466 helping and hurting. Do both, and we could - - everybody can join in, but Walz and Vance. 89 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,000 MICHAEL SCHERER: Wait, so I think the first thing you have to say when you're talking about vice 90 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:58,900 presidential nominees is there's not a lot of historical record of them mattering in November. 91 00:07:58,900 --> 00:08:00,733 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. MICHAEL SCHERER: They matter as attack dogs. 92 00:08:00,733 --> 00:08:02,700 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: That's why we're only having one question on it. 93 00:08:02,700 --> 00:08:05,000 MICHAEL SCHERER: Right, they matter as attack dogs, they matter as surrogates, 94 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:09,633 they help shape how people think about the person at the top of the ticket. 95 00:08:09,633 --> 00:08:14,633 And I think if that's the scorecard, Trump has probably been hurt by Vance over the 96 00:08:16,700 --> 00:08:19,666 last couple weeks because Vance is sort of a sourpuss in the Trump mold. And Kamala, 97 00:08:21,333 --> 00:08:24,300 who's -- the rap against Kamala, she's, you know, a San Francisco elitist, 98 00:08:24,300 --> 00:08:28,666 she picks someone who is totally against type, who loves being in front of the camera, 99 00:08:28,666 --> 00:08:33,666 who is sort of refreshing and different, at least for Democrats, are getting them going. 100 00:08:34,866 --> 00:08:37,000 So, I think, at least in the short-term, 101 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:39,933 there's an advantage to Harris. I don't know what that means in the moment (ph). 102 00:08:39,933 --> 00:08:43,366 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Anybody want to argue that vice presidents really matter? 103 00:08:43,366 --> 00:08:47,400 PETER BAKER: Where they matter is, first, do no harm, right? Because they're not 104 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:51,433 going to help you win a state anymore. That hasn't happened since Johnson in 1960 helped 105 00:08:51,433 --> 00:08:55,800 Kennedy. They can make a difference, as Palin did, for instance, in 2008, 106 00:08:55,800 --> 00:09:00,800 in which you have to explain away problems or mistakes or what have you, and that's clearly 107 00:09:02,833 --> 00:09:05,900 where Vance was for Trump, because he's explaining the childless cat lady's stuff. 108 00:09:08,266 --> 00:09:11,133 Now, the question is whether the Walz -- you know, the attack on Walz's military service will try to 109 00:09:13,366 --> 00:09:15,233 do the same to him. At the moment, it doesn't seem to have the same traction, I don't think. 110 00:09:15,233 --> 00:09:17,666 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes, let's talk about that for a minute. Adam, 111 00:09:17,666 --> 00:09:21,866 you have a lot of experience with the Army and the idea of stolen valor. The accusation that he 112 00:09:23,833 --> 00:09:28,833 got out of the National Guard early doesn't seem to be sticking. He did kind of play a 113 00:09:30,966 --> 00:09:34,433 little bit fast and loose with the, I carried a gun in war when that war was in Italy. I mean, 114 00:09:36,700 --> 00:09:41,000 do you think that this is a thing where -- I mean, look, Chris LaCivita, Trump campaign manager, 115 00:09:43,066 --> 00:09:47,100 invented swift boating, more or less. John Kerry, who had a tremendous war record, was 116 00:09:49,366 --> 00:09:52,866 somehow -- it turned against him. It was sort of a presage, something horrible in politics, right? 117 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:59,433 Do you think that this works or people kind of just moving on saying, 118 00:09:59,433 --> 00:10:04,033 well, he serve 24 years or so in the National Guard, leave it alone? Where is it going? 119 00:10:04,033 --> 00:10:07,200 ADAM HARRIS: The average service time in the National Guard is somewhere between like six 120 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:10,900 and eight years, right? So, serving 24 years, right, having that longevity, 121 00:10:10,900 --> 00:10:13,933 saying that he got out right before his unit was about to deploy doesn't 122 00:10:13,933 --> 00:10:18,933 necessarily carry the sort of, you know, heft that Republicans might want it to. 123 00:10:21,033 --> 00:10:25,633 The thing that might might stick is that, you know, saying that I carried these weapons in war, 124 00:10:27,766 --> 00:10:31,200 right, when you were serving in Italy, but it doesn't seem to have yet gained that traction. 125 00:10:33,300 --> 00:10:36,966 Even though, you know, the idea of stolen valor is, you know, this sort of chief (INAUDIBLE). 126 00:10:36,966 --> 00:10:39,066 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: No, that's radioactive, yes. 127 00:10:39,066 --> 00:10:42,666 GLASSER: I mean, look, even The Wall Street Journal today, you know, I think, 128 00:10:42,666 --> 00:10:46,766 cited the New York Post saying this was a pretty thin (ph) gruel and they're willing 129 00:10:46,766 --> 00:10:51,733 to entertain plenty of attacks on Walz. It strikes me that the thing you need to 130 00:10:53,866 --> 00:10:57,633 know about this is that the Republicans are running for the third time in a row a man 131 00:10:57,633 --> 00:11:02,533 who essentially dodged the Vietnam draft and said that he had bone spurs. When he was asked 132 00:11:02,533 --> 00:11:07,533 about where those bone spurs were, he couldn't remember what foot they were in supposedly. 133 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,866 So, this is not -- you know, if Republicans can turn that you know 24 years of service 134 00:11:14,933 --> 00:11:18,366 in the National Guard into some sort of a negative, I would be deeply skeptical about -- 135 00:11:18,366 --> 00:11:21,666 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But this is Trump's -- one of Trump's magic tricks is he sort 136 00:11:21,666 --> 00:11:25,466 of has Teflon about all of these, right? I mean -- 137 00:11:25,466 --> 00:11:28,733 PETER BAKER: I remember somebody reporting though that his view of military services, 138 00:11:28,733 --> 00:11:30,266 those people are suckers and losers. 139 00:11:30,266 --> 00:11:31,566 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: I remember that. 140 00:11:31,566 --> 00:11:32,866 PETER BAKER: I read that someplace. 141 00:11:32,866 --> 00:11:33,766 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: I read that (INAUDIBLE). 142 00:11:33,766 --> 00:11:35,733 GLASSER: Credible sources. 143 00:11:35,733 --> 00:11:38,433 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes, very credible sources, actually. 144 00:11:38,433 --> 00:11:43,433 The -- talking about spurious allegations, I want to bring up in a euphemistic way 145 00:11:49,266 --> 00:11:52,766 something that's happening in politics that I find disturbing, 146 00:11:52,766 --> 00:11:57,733 which is that there is a story that's very popular in social media about J.D. Vance and 147 00:12:01,466 --> 00:12:06,466 the unnatural use of a couch. Let's just leave it at that. It's totally made up. 148 00:12:07,933 --> 00:12:10,400 And the thing that's interesting and a little bit disturbing, 149 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:14,533 we're talking about swift boating and the making of totally false allegations, it seems that the 150 00:12:16,633 --> 00:12:19,933 Democrats really love this particular shtick. And you at home who aren't aware of this, 151 00:12:21,933 --> 00:12:24,800 God bless you for being normal, you could Google it if you need to, if you don't know 152 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:29,466 what we're talking about. But talk about that for a little. You've had some thoughts on this. 153 00:12:29,466 --> 00:12:33,633 MICHAEL SCHERER: I agree with you, I think it's actually sort of a terrifying development for 154 00:12:33,633 --> 00:12:37,866 our political discussion. I mean, it used to be that you could sort of try and slime somebody, 155 00:12:37,866 --> 00:12:41,800 but you slime somebody based on something that has some connection to reality. 156 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,266 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. 157 00:12:44,266 --> 00:12:47,300 MICHAEL SCHERER: This was an online meme, a joke based on absolutely nothing, basically a slander. 158 00:12:48,066 --> 00:12:49,633 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. 159 00:12:49,633 --> 00:12:51,800 MICHAEL SCHERER: But it's kind of because it's so absurd, 160 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:56,266 and it has opened the door to that genre of slander for humor's sake, just to be mean, 161 00:12:58,566 --> 00:13:03,300 taking place all over the place. Republicans were making up stories about Tim Walz this week and 162 00:13:05,666 --> 00:13:08,433 creating their own memes. We won't talk about what they are, totally baseless, totally fraudulent. 163 00:13:10,100 --> 00:13:12,433 And if we continue down this path, we're headed to a place where 164 00:13:12,433 --> 00:13:17,433 anybody who enters the public square will be immediately slimed with some joke about what 165 00:13:19,566 --> 00:13:23,600 they did with a rabbit once or something like that. And it's just like a bottomless pit. 166 00:13:25,500 --> 00:13:28,533 GLASSER: Yes. I feel like we already went to the bottom place. I mean, you know, 167 00:13:28,533 --> 00:13:33,533 the entire brand of Donald Trump in politics is to say lies about people and to, in particular, 168 00:13:36,433 --> 00:13:41,433 lies that demean them personally and whatever their personal characteristics are. And he gets 169 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:46,133 thousands of people to cheer and laugh and applaud at that. And that has been a core 170 00:13:46,133 --> 00:13:51,133 part of his appeal to this country for the last nine years. So, if we're talking about 171 00:13:53,133 --> 00:13:55,200 a race to the bottom, sadly, I just feel like we're living in that world already. 172 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:57,366 MICHAEL SCHERER: But we should call it out. 173 00:13:57,366 --> 00:13:59,866 SUSAN GLASSER: By the way, I don't advocate this. I'm not saying that this is a good thing 174 00:13:59,866 --> 00:14:04,833 that Democrats are now getting in on the act, but, sadly, we've been living in that world. 175 00:14:06,533 --> 00:14:08,833 MICHAEL SCHERER: I'm not excusing anything Donald Trump's done. I mean, 176 00:14:08,833 --> 00:14:12,066 we should, and we do call that out. It's just once you say, well, they did it, so we can do it too. 177 00:14:13,266 --> 00:14:15,133 SUSAN GLASSER: Oh yes. I mean, that's -- 178 00:14:15,133 --> 00:14:17,100 ADAM HARRIS: And I should add, back to sort of the military conversation, 179 00:14:17,100 --> 00:14:20,466 right, Democrats clearly have a limit to what they will do, because, you know, 180 00:14:20,466 --> 00:14:22,866 they were asked about J.D. Vance's service as well, and they said, well, 181 00:14:22,866 --> 00:14:26,433 we admire anybody who serves and, you know, who's willing to risk their life. 182 00:14:26,433 --> 00:14:28,900 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: So, there's some restraint somewhere. 183 00:14:28,900 --> 00:14:30,366 ADAM HARRIS: Yes. 184 00:14:30,366 --> 00:14:33,000 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But most of the restraints are off. 185 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:37,400 Susan, I want to go to something that you wrote just yesterday. You wrote a piece in The New 186 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:42,400 Yorker about how Trump might very well be missing Biden at this point. Go into that a little bit. 187 00:14:45,100 --> 00:14:48,666 SUSAN GLASSER: Well, I mean, you know, it's amazing. Obviously it's been an incredible 188 00:14:48,666 --> 00:14:53,666 whirlwind. We are speaking today on day 19 only since Joe Biden dropped out, was pushed out, 189 00:14:57,666 --> 00:15:02,666 you know, decided to exit the presidential race. And, you know, the world has sort of been 190 00:15:05,066 --> 00:15:07,733 reinvented since then. The one person who's still talking about Biden in American politics has been 191 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:14,500 Donald Trump. He has repeatedly been posting on social media about him during this press 192 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:20,833 conference at Mar-a-Lago yesterday. He repeatedly unasked for, you know, kept going back to, he says 193 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:27,266 that it's unfair that Joe Biden is not in the race anymore. He says that he's even repeated multiple 194 00:15:29,833 --> 00:15:34,833 times that it's somehow unconstitutional that Joe Biden is no longer the Democratic nominee. 195 00:15:36,933 --> 00:15:41,233 I suppose in the interest of fact-checking, he has not been able to cite a provision of 196 00:15:41,233 --> 00:15:46,233 the Constitution that might apply in this case. But, you know, what it speaks to is that Trump 197 00:15:48,266 --> 00:15:52,333 has spent not just this campaign season, but, you know, the four-year campaign before that, 198 00:15:54,466 --> 00:15:59,466 running against Joe Biden, thinking about how to tear down Joe Biden, you know, marinating 199 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:05,200 in the idea that he had this race won because Biden was such a weakened incumbent. And he 200 00:16:07,433 --> 00:16:10,466 has really struggled, I think, to come up with a retooled campaign for an entirely different thing. 201 00:16:12,566 --> 00:16:16,633 And just the one thing that it seems to me most important about Biden's exit, as it pertains to 202 00:16:18,833 --> 00:16:23,700 Trump, is that it's just taken the issue of the future and given it back to Democrats, given it 203 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:32,200 back to Harris. It's now Donald Trump, who is the candidate who looks old, whose fitness for office 204 00:16:34,566 --> 00:16:38,833 is the issue. And I think that press conference, in many ways, really showcased those questions. 205 00:16:40,733 --> 00:16:42,666 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Wasn't it Nikki Haley who said that the first party to dump 206 00:16:42,666 --> 00:16:45,600 its 80-year-old candidate will win? I think it's an interesting observation. 207 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:50,600 I want to ask you about something else that Susan wrote. You know, Trump seems to miss Biden. The 208 00:16:53,300 --> 00:16:58,300 Democrats don't seem to miss him at all. His name was not invoked at the opening rally 209 00:16:58,300 --> 00:17:03,300 in Philadelphia, Harris and Walz. And it was a little perturbing. I don't know if you -- I mean, 210 00:17:05,366 --> 00:17:09,300 I guess you all picked up on that too. What's going on here with Biden and the party? 211 00:17:09,300 --> 00:17:12,633 PETER BAKER: Yes. Well, he's basically disappeared, right? He has -- he's doing 212 00:17:12,633 --> 00:17:17,100 a few events here and there, and now he's off in Delaware for the long weekend. He is going to do 213 00:17:17,100 --> 00:17:22,100 his first joint appearance with Vice President Harris next Thursday. That's the first one since 214 00:17:24,166 --> 00:17:26,433 his departure from the race, and it's more than three weeks after, and then he's going 215 00:17:26,433 --> 00:17:30,433 to have Monday night at the convention instead of Thursday night at the convention. Thursday 216 00:17:30,433 --> 00:17:34,266 night's the night, of course, the nominee gets. Monday night's the night you get when you're the 217 00:17:34,266 --> 00:17:39,266 former president. And so it's a real step down for him. And then as soon as that speech is 218 00:17:41,433 --> 00:17:44,033 done on Monday night of that convention, he will disappear for the rest of the week on vacation. 219 00:17:44,033 --> 00:17:48,633 So, he's kind of exiting the stage a little bit. Now, you could say maybe he's a little, 220 00:17:48,633 --> 00:17:52,200 you know, perturbed that they pushed him out of the race. Maybe he's a little unhappy about that, 221 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:56,633 or he's leaving the stage to her so that she can build up herself as the candidate, 222 00:17:56,633 --> 00:17:59,500 maybe a little bit of both. But no question about it that he has, 223 00:17:59,500 --> 00:18:03,333 in fact, sort of receded at this point while she has, you know, jumped -- 224 00:18:03,333 --> 00:18:05,366 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: So, quickly. PETER BAKER: Yes, so quickly. 225 00:18:05,366 --> 00:18:08,633 MICHAEL SCHERER: Democrats are trying to make this a change election. And, you know, 226 00:18:08,633 --> 00:18:11,900 Harris is an incumbent. She's running as part of an incoming administration, 227 00:18:11,900 --> 00:18:15,466 but they very much want to present themselves as something fresh and something new to 228 00:18:15,466 --> 00:18:19,800 the country. And so Biden complicates that argument and will continue to complicate it. 229 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:24,800 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Let's go to Mar-a-Lago, not literally. Move the 230 00:18:26,933 --> 00:18:30,133 table there. That would be a great place to film. You just came back from Mar-a-Lago from 231 00:18:32,133 --> 00:18:35,200 that press conference. It was kind of a greatest hits montage press conference. 232 00:18:38,466 --> 00:18:43,466 I want you to watch one moment from it and we can talk about this and others. 233 00:18:45,733 --> 00:18:48,066 DONALD TRUMP (R), Former U.S. President, 2024 Presidential Nominee: I've spoken to the biggest 234 00:18:48,066 --> 00:18:51,066 crowds. Nobody's spoken to crowds bigger than me. If you look at Martin Luther King, when he 235 00:18:53,300 --> 00:18:57,266 did his speech, his great speech, and you look at ours, it's same real estate, same everything, 236 00:18:59,300 --> 00:19:03,033 same number of people. If not, we had more. 237 00:19:03,033 --> 00:19:08,033 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: You know, one thing I noticed from that is that he took a break to call the I 238 00:19:10,333 --> 00:19:12,700 Have a Dream speech a great speech, which maybe that means that he still thinks that black men 239 00:19:12,700 --> 00:19:17,633 are in play. I don't know, but it was -- that was even for Donald Trump, kind of the compare 240 00:19:20,666 --> 00:19:25,666 yourself to Martin Luther King Jr., I thought that was -- give us the general sense. You were right 241 00:19:27,733 --> 00:19:31,600 there in the room. He seemed simultaneously filled with a kind of a bragging quality, 242 00:19:35,866 --> 00:19:40,866 but also a little bit lost, couldn't hear the questions sometimes. What was the mood there? 243 00:19:42,966 --> 00:19:45,333 MICHAEL SCHERER: Well, you know, it was actually when he got the question about the crowd size 244 00:19:45,333 --> 00:19:49,533 that the tone of that press conference changed. He came out just bashing Harris, bashing Biden, 245 00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:55,633 bashing Democrats, hitting them on issues, which is what his campaign wants them to be doing, 246 00:19:57,366 --> 00:20:01,000 hitting Walz. And then as soon as he got the crowd size question, 247 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:04,033 it was like a whole new -- like it was going straight to the heart 248 00:20:04,033 --> 00:20:08,800 of who -- what his identity is. And it started to sort of go off the rails there. 249 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:13,800 I thought it was a, I mean, we came down to Florida, a bunch of reporters, for a background 250 00:20:15,966 --> 00:20:20,100 briefing that morning by senior campaign staff. And when Trump found out that we were going to be 251 00:20:22,333 --> 00:20:27,066 down there, and this was a very classic thing that campaigns do, here's how we're targeting voters, 252 00:20:29,066 --> 00:20:31,633 here's what our polling says, I mean, just sort of the basics of a campaign, he said, 253 00:20:31,633 --> 00:20:34,466 let's get buses, let's bring them to Mar-a-Lago, I want to talk to them. 254 00:20:34,466 --> 00:20:39,166 And what was striking about that day was how different the substance of the morning 255 00:20:39,166 --> 00:20:43,133 presentation was, in which the campaign is doing very traditional campaign things. They 256 00:20:43,133 --> 00:20:47,633 have a message against Harris. They're going to prosecute the message. They have door knocking. 257 00:20:47,633 --> 00:20:50,966 They have ads, you know, they know that they have something they're trying to 258 00:20:50,966 --> 00:20:54,866 do. And then they have a candidate who they don't control. And there's just a 259 00:20:54,866 --> 00:20:59,833 disconnect there. You know, most campaigns exist to discipline their candidates. And 260 00:21:02,233 --> 00:21:04,433 the Trump campaign is built differently. The campaign exists, and they have their candidate, 261 00:21:04,433 --> 00:21:08,233 and then the campaign reacts to their candidate, and sometimes tries to manage it. 262 00:21:08,233 --> 00:21:13,233 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. I want to talk about - - it's fascinating. We're watching in real time 263 00:21:15,666 --> 00:21:19,233 the Trump campaign and Trump separately, I guess, pivot to figuring out what's the argument against 264 00:21:21,366 --> 00:21:24,800 Kamala Harris that would work. Something that obviously Trump was trying out last week, Adam, 265 00:21:27,066 --> 00:21:30,200 was this, she's not really black, she's Indian, she never said she was black, which is kind of 266 00:21:32,366 --> 00:21:35,800 interesting if you go to Howard University as an 18-year-old. You're kind of signaling something 267 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:40,800 about your sense of who you are. But it seems to have dropped off a little bit. 268 00:21:42,500 --> 00:21:46,766 Are we just in the sort of the tryout where he's seeing what will stick? 269 00:21:46,766 --> 00:21:51,133 ADAM HARRIS: Yes, it seems like a really spaghetti on the wall sort of phase that 270 00:21:51,133 --> 00:21:55,333 we're going through where they're not -- they were really sure how to run against 271 00:21:55,333 --> 00:21:59,766 Joe Biden. The entire campaign strategy was built around the idea that we're going 272 00:21:59,766 --> 00:22:04,066 to win because we're running against Joe Biden. We're old, but he's older, right, 273 00:22:04,066 --> 00:22:08,100 all of these things. He doesn't get people excited. Our base is sort of built in. They 274 00:22:08,100 --> 00:22:13,100 don't necessarily have that for Kamala Harris. And so, effectively, what he's trying to do, 275 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,333 you mentioned kind of the maybe he still thinks that black men are in play. He says that at the 276 00:22:17,333 --> 00:22:22,333 press conference yesterday, right? We're doing better with black men than Harris is. 277 00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:26,233 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Is there proof of the polling of that? 278 00:22:26,233 --> 00:22:29,800 ADAM HARRIS: Not necessarily, right? He's running a little bit better than in 2020. But, you know, 279 00:22:34,466 --> 00:22:38,066 the issue here is going to be whether or not he is actually going to turn those voters out or if 280 00:22:38,066 --> 00:22:43,066 those voters are actually going to stay home. There is a sort of streak in the sort of black 281 00:22:45,266 --> 00:22:49,000 masculinity that would lean towards Trump, but black women are notably, you know, very much in 282 00:22:51,366 --> 00:22:56,066 the block for Kamala Harris. Sort of we've seen the excitement shift in the polling where some of 283 00:22:58,166 --> 00:23:01,533 those voters who were willing to go with Trump when it was Biden are shifting back to Kamala. 284 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,666 But I think there's also -- there's a little bit about like thinking of the economy, right? 285 00:23:06,666 --> 00:23:11,666 Most voters are saying that the economy is the thing that we are going to go to the polls about, 286 00:23:13,766 --> 00:23:16,733 right? 30, somewhere around 36 percent will save the economy over any other issue. And, 287 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:22,800 you know, Vice President Harris staying away from President Biden at the moment is probably 288 00:23:24,866 --> 00:23:27,266 a good thing for her to sort of keep a little bit of distance, as the campaign is trying. 289 00:23:27,266 --> 00:23:31,633 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But very quickly, I'm hearing that you're not necessarily thinking that the 290 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,300 play that Trump might be running, what race is she, she's this, she's that, 291 00:23:36,300 --> 00:23:41,300 it doesn't seem to have a salience that, let's say, birtherism had a long time ago. 292 00:23:43,133 --> 00:23:45,533 ADAM HARRIS: No. Yes, it seemed like an offhanded remark, right. As he was kind 293 00:23:45,533 --> 00:23:50,333 of going through that conversation at the National Association of Black Journalists, 294 00:23:50,333 --> 00:23:54,000 he was really just sort of throwing out anything that he could that might stick. 295 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:57,766 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Well, you know, by the way, that's a huge -- you bring up a huge issue. Susan, 296 00:23:57,766 --> 00:24:02,733 you're a day-to-day, hour-to-hour tracker of the many moods of Donald Trump, and the statements 297 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,200 of Donald Trump. You know, we sometimes think that there's a plan behind things but, 298 00:24:10,533 --> 00:24:13,266 you know, you use the term offhand. When you're watching Trump and tracking him week-to-week, 299 00:24:15,566 --> 00:24:18,500 how much do you think is just stuff that comes out spontaneously and how much do you think that 300 00:24:18,500 --> 00:24:23,500 he's thinking, I'm going to create confusion about her, the nature of her racial identity? 301 00:24:25,466 --> 00:24:27,300 SUSAN GLASSER: Okay. So, I think that Michael's point is a very important point, 302 00:24:27,300 --> 00:24:29,900 which is that there's -- just as there was during the Trump administration, 303 00:24:29,900 --> 00:24:34,900 there's the Trump administration's policy and then there's what President Trump was doing, 304 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,233 and they were often at odds with each other. That clearly is the case in the campaign. 305 00:24:39,233 --> 00:24:44,066 But to the point about Trump, he's obviously not some kind of like, you know, 3D chess player, 306 00:24:44,066 --> 00:24:49,066 okay? He's very undisciplined, and so it's often revealing what he says. However, 307 00:24:50,733 --> 00:24:55,466 my view is that he does have certain, you know, playbook. And, you know, 308 00:24:57,533 --> 00:25:00,266 a 78-year-old man, he's not going to reinvent himself. He's not getting a new playbook. 309 00:25:00,266 --> 00:25:05,233 This kind of racism and race baiting and bringing this up is ingrained in him. It is one of his 310 00:25:07,333 --> 00:25:10,533 plays. And I think that his play here is not to get more of the black male vote, it's signaling 311 00:25:12,866 --> 00:25:17,866 very clearly to his white supporters, hey, remember, I'm running against a woman of color. 312 00:25:19,866 --> 00:25:22,333 And it seems to me that, you know, we're overthinking this 313 00:25:22,333 --> 00:25:27,066 and we do this all the time with Trump. We don't need to overthink it. Like, yes, 314 00:25:27,066 --> 00:25:32,066 he wants to bring up race in the campaign because he thinks it's a liability for her. 315 00:25:34,233 --> 00:25:37,233 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Well, we'll find out next week what game he is playing, if it's not 3D chess. 316 00:25:37,233 --> 00:25:41,433 But, unfortunately, we need to leave it there for now. I want to thank our panelists for sharing 317 00:25:41,433 --> 00:25:45,666 their reporting and their observations. And to our viewers at home, thank you for joining us. 318 00:25:45,666 --> 00:25:48,800 For more on Donald Trump's press conference, please visit theatlantic.com. 319 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:52,500 I'm Jeffrey Goldberg. Good night from Washington.