WEBVTT 00:01.866 --> 00:03.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Both the Democratic and Republican presidential tickets 00:03.633 --> 00:07.466 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% are finally set. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are a month away from 00:07.466 --> 00:11.100 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% facing each other on a debate stage. It's clear that Trump would rather be 00:11.100 --> 00:16.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% facing Joe Biden and that he doesn't know quite how to counter Harris' surge, next. 01:17.666 --> 01:20.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Good evening and welcome to Washington Week. 01:20.433 --> 01:24.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% So, Tim Walz is in the race. J.D. Vance is trying to make a positive impact for 01:24.600 --> 01:28.433 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% Donald Trump. Kamala Harris seems to be having a good time, in part, 01:28.433 --> 01:32.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% perhaps because she hasn't given an interview since becoming the Democratic nominee. 01:32.466 --> 01:35.066 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% As for Trump, in a press conference this week, 01:35.066 --> 01:40.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% he compared the size of his crowds to those of, yes, Martin Luther King, Jr., 01:42.033 --> 01:45.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% and then said some other things that were even more disconnected from observable reality. 01:45.133 --> 01:49.733 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% I'll discuss observable reality tonight with Peter Baker, the chief White House 01:49.733 --> 01:54.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% correspondent for The New York Times, Susan Glasser is a staff writer at The New Yorker, 01:56.800 --> 01:59.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Adam Harris is my colleague and a contributing writer at The Atlantic, and Michael Shearer is 02:02.300 --> 02:04.933 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% a national political reporter at The Washington Post. Okay, so this is observable reality edition. 02:07.033 --> 02:11.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% But before, before we get to observable reality Mar-a-Lago, I want to set the stage a little 02:13.766 --> 02:17.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% bit where we are In the race and where we are in the polling. Adam, maybe you could give us 02:17.866 --> 02:22.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a little scene-setter since you love crosstabs. You know, I know how you love breaking it down. 02:25.000 --> 02:28.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% So, the polls are shifting in Harris' direction what does it mean and does it mean anything? 02:30.100 --> 02:32.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% ADAM HARRIS, Contributing Writer, The Atlantic: I mean, it's so nationally, 02:32.266 --> 02:35.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% right? It's hard to really discern a lot what will happen in November by national polls, 02:35.900 --> 02:39.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% but Kamala Harris is trending, positively, 02:39.100 --> 02:43.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% right? She's running for about four points ahead of Donald Trump in the Marquette poll, 02:43.933 --> 02:48.933 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% about three points ahead in the PBS poll, which is, you know, right within the margin of error. 02:51.100 --> 02:54.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% But if you kind of dig into that a little bit more, right, you expand the pool outside of 02:54.533 --> 02:59.500 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% just Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. You add in Kennedy, you add in some of the other. And all 03:01.833 --> 03:06.833 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% of a sudden the picture becomes really promising for Democrats, right? They never really eclipsed 03:09.000 --> 03:13.700 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% around 40 percent when Biden was the candidate. Now, they're running at about 47 percent, where 03:15.966 --> 03:19.400 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Donald Trump is running at around 41 percent, with Kennedy receiving a smaller share of the vote. 03:21.233 --> 03:24.433 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% So, that really tells you that she's pulling in a base of voter voters 03:24.433 --> 03:28.000 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% that wasn't necessarily excited about Biden, was looking for an alternative, 03:28.000 --> 03:32.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% but now really kind of has that. And if you dig into the states in particular, 03:32.333 --> 03:36.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Wisconsin was a really -- it is a really interesting example there where voters were 03:36.466 --> 03:41.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% just not enthusiastic about Joe Biden, right? It was about 30-some odd percent 03:43.400 --> 03:46.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% of voters were enthusiastic about voting for Joe Biden. But you add Kamala there 03:46.700 --> 03:51.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% and it jumps up to about the same enthusiasm that Republicans have for voting for Trump. 03:51.333 --> 03:54.833 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes. Peter, does that enthusiasm last? And what do you 03:54.833 --> 03:57.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% take out of all the polls? How much do you take out of all these polls? 03:57.666 --> 03:59.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% PETER BAKER, Chief White House Correspondent, The New York Times: Well, I think, look, 03:59.700 --> 04:02.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I think this is, enthusiasm is important because you saw a Democratic Party that 04:02.133 --> 04:05.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% until a couple of weeks ago that was incredibly depressed. It was completely depressed. It was 04:05.800 --> 04:10.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% in a fugue state. They felt like it was a death march to Election Day. They were 04:10.666 --> 04:14.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% not at all excited about doing it. And why does that matter? Because why would you go 04:14.633 --> 04:19.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% out of your way to go vote if you're not all excited? So, yes, enthusiasm matters. 04:19.233 --> 04:24.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% To see these crowds that she is generating is - - two points about it. One is extraordinary. 04:24.200 --> 04:28.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Every Biden rally I've gone to in the last three or four years comes nowhere 04:28.033 --> 04:33.033 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% close to the worst rally she's had in terms of size, energy, and enthusiasm. 04:34.233 --> 04:36.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: And on the joy meter. 04:36.433 --> 04:38.633 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% PETER BAKER: And on the joy meter, exactly. And then, secondly, it's driving Trump nuts, 04:38.633 --> 04:42.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% right? You saw that yesterday. He says, oh my gosh, he's only got a thousand people. I get 10, 04:42.233 --> 04:47.233 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% 20, 30 times as many people as she has, not true. Tonight in Arizona, she'll have 20,000 people. She 04:49.633 --> 04:53.200 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% had 15,000 and 12,000 crowds in the Midwest this week. These are Trump-size crowds. And it doesn't 04:55.400 --> 04:58.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% mean she's going to win. It means she's at least caught up to Biden -- or caught up to Trump. 04:58.866 --> 05:02.200 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But, Susan, my question is on this question of, 05:02.200 --> 05:07.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% is this sustainable enthusiasm and perennial joy, 05:09.266 --> 05:13.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% or is this relief that it's not, what did you say, the fugue state death march? Peter 05:15.233 --> 05:20.200 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% got really -- he went really low. He went way down there. But, I mean, is this sustainable? 05:21.900 --> 05:23.433 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% SUSAN GLASSER, Staff Writer, The New Yorker: Well, first of all it, 05:23.433 --> 05:27.700 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% it's been a long time in our politics since the word joy was 05:27.700 --> 05:32.000 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% trending. It certainly wasn't on my bingo card for August of 2024. 05:32.000 --> 05:34.200 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It certainly has never been spoken on this show. 05:34.200 --> 05:38.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% SUSAN GLASSER: No, wait. Well, you know, I mean, I feel like I've written the words doom loop, you 05:38.866 --> 05:43.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% know, like a lot more times than I've written the words joy as a factor in American politics. You 05:45.933 --> 05:49.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% have to go back, it seems to me, maybe Obama 2008, you know. But even then you could say that was 05:52.200 --> 05:54.866 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% more inspirational. Peter and I were talking the other day. Maybe it was -- you know, you have to 05:54.866 --> 05:59.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% go back to 1992 and the Bill Clinton-Al Gore, you know, jubilant duo coming out of the Democratic 06:02.800 --> 06:07.800 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Convention in New York City. Whatever, you know, your analogy is it's been a while, first of all. 06:10.066 --> 06:13.333 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% Second of all, I do think to the polls, there is an interesting question I have, which is, Harris 06:15.566 --> 06:19.700 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% has clearly consolidated the Democratic vote that had not been consolidated under Biden, right? So, 06:21.733 --> 06:24.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a lot of the reason for Biden's softness in the polls was because Democratic voters or 06:24.933 --> 06:29.933 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Democratic-leaning independents, you know, they just were uncomfortable casting another vote for 06:31.900 --> 06:35.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Biden. It wasn't that, you know, Harris has not converted a ton of Republicans. 06:35.033 --> 06:40.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% So, I think the question is, does she not just pull even with Donald Trump and put us right 06:42.400 --> 06:45.200 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% back into essentially a dead even election, or are we going to see her coming out of the convention 06:47.433 --> 06:51.666 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% with something more approximating a lead, even if a small lead? I don't know the answer to that. 06:52.866 --> 06:55.166 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. You know the answer? 06:55.166 --> 06:57.633 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% MICHAEL SCHERER, National Political Reporter, The Washington Post: Well, I think that's the 06:57.633 --> 06:59.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% right point that Susan made that right now we're back to consolidating some of that. But if you go 07:02.300 --> 07:06.500 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% back to 2020, Biden won that race by four points. If you look at the polling averages now, she's up 07:06.500 --> 07:11.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% by one point. If you go back to 2020, at this point in 2020, Biden was ahead by seven points. 07:13.266 --> 07:16.533 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% So, she doesn't yet have the full Biden coalition behind her. There's still, 07:16.533 --> 07:21.533 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% if you talk to the Biden campaign, a lot of Biden voters from 2020 who will say in focus groups or 07:23.600 --> 07:27.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% will tell pollsters, I don't know if I want to vote. This is all kind of depressing. I don't 07:27.500 --> 07:31.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% really like Trump, but this is not something I'm excited about. So, she still has a ways to go. 07:31.633 --> 07:35.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And I think the real question is whether, the next two weeks, those people get there, 07:35.500 --> 07:39.366 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% and we walk into September, and she's back where Biden was at this point in 2020. 07:39.366 --> 07:44.366 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Michael, talk about the role of the vice presidential nominees 07:46.500 --> 07:50.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% helping and hurting. Do both, and we could - - everybody can join in, but Walz and Vance. 07:52.800 --> 07:55.000 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% MICHAEL SCHERER: Wait, so I think the first thing you have to say when you're talking about vice 07:55.000 --> 07:58.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% presidential nominees is there's not a lot of historical record of them mattering in November. 07:58.900 --> 08:00.733 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. MICHAEL SCHERER: They matter as attack dogs. 08:00.733 --> 08:02.700 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: That's why we're only having one question on it. 08:02.700 --> 08:05.000 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% MICHAEL SCHERER: Right, they matter as attack dogs, they matter as surrogates, 08:05.000 --> 08:09.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% they help shape how people think about the person at the top of the ticket. 08:09.633 --> 08:14.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And I think if that's the scorecard, Trump has probably been hurt by Vance over the 08:16.700 --> 08:19.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% last couple weeks because Vance is sort of a sourpuss in the Trump mold. And Kamala, 08:21.333 --> 08:24.300 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% who's -- the rap against Kamala, she's, you know, a San Francisco elitist, 08:24.300 --> 08:28.666 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% she picks someone who is totally against type, who loves being in front of the camera, 08:28.666 --> 08:33.666 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% who is sort of refreshing and different, at least for Democrats, are getting them going. 08:34.866 --> 08:37.000 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% So, I think, at least in the short-term, 08:37.000 --> 08:39.933 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% there's an advantage to Harris. I don't know what that means in the moment (ph). 08:39.933 --> 08:43.366 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Anybody want to argue that vice presidents really matter? 08:43.366 --> 08:47.400 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% PETER BAKER: Where they matter is, first, do no harm, right? Because they're not 08:47.400 --> 08:51.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% going to help you win a state anymore. That hasn't happened since Johnson in 1960 helped 08:51.433 --> 08:55.800 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% Kennedy. They can make a difference, as Palin did, for instance, in 2008, 08:55.800 --> 09:00.800 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% in which you have to explain away problems or mistakes or what have you, and that's clearly 09:02.833 --> 09:05.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% where Vance was for Trump, because he's explaining the childless cat lady's stuff. 09:08.266 --> 09:11.133 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Now, the question is whether the Walz -- you know, the attack on Walz's military service will try to 09:13.366 --> 09:15.233 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% do the same to him. At the moment, it doesn't seem to have the same traction, I don't think. 09:15.233 --> 09:17.666 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes, let's talk about that for a minute. Adam, 09:17.666 --> 09:21.866 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% you have a lot of experience with the Army and the idea of stolen valor. The accusation that he 09:23.833 --> 09:28.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% got out of the National Guard early doesn't seem to be sticking. He did kind of play a 09:30.966 --> 09:34.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% little bit fast and loose with the, I carried a gun in war when that war was in Italy. I mean, 09:36.700 --> 09:41.000 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% do you think that this is a thing where -- I mean, look, Chris LaCivita, Trump campaign manager, 09:43.066 --> 09:47.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% invented swift boating, more or less. John Kerry, who had a tremendous war record, was 09:49.366 --> 09:52.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% somehow -- it turned against him. It was sort of a presage, something horrible in politics, right? 09:54.600 --> 09:59.433 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% Do you think that this works or people kind of just moving on saying, 09:59.433 --> 10:04.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% well, he serve 24 years or so in the National Guard, leave it alone? Where is it going? 10:04.033 --> 10:07.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% ADAM HARRIS: The average service time in the National Guard is somewhere between like six 10:07.200 --> 10:10.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% and eight years, right? So, serving 24 years, right, having that longevity, 10:10.900 --> 10:13.933 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% saying that he got out right before his unit was about to deploy doesn't 10:13.933 --> 10:18.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% necessarily carry the sort of, you know, heft that Republicans might want it to. 10:21.033 --> 10:25.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% The thing that might might stick is that, you know, saying that I carried these weapons in war, 10:27.766 --> 10:31.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% right, when you were serving in Italy, but it doesn't seem to have yet gained that traction. 10:33.300 --> 10:36.966 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Even though, you know, the idea of stolen valor is, you know, this sort of chief (INAUDIBLE). 10:36.966 --> 10:39.066 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: No, that's radioactive, yes. 10:39.066 --> 10:42.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% GLASSER: I mean, look, even The Wall Street Journal today, you know, I think, 10:42.666 --> 10:46.766 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% cited the New York Post saying this was a pretty thin (ph) gruel and they're willing 10:46.766 --> 10:51.733 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% to entertain plenty of attacks on Walz. It strikes me that the thing you need to 10:53.866 --> 10:57.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% know about this is that the Republicans are running for the third time in a row a man 10:57.633 --> 11:02.533 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% who essentially dodged the Vietnam draft and said that he had bone spurs. When he was asked 11:02.533 --> 11:07.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% about where those bone spurs were, he couldn't remember what foot they were in supposedly. 11:09.600 --> 11:12.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% So, this is not -- you know, if Republicans can turn that you know 24 years of service 11:14.933 --> 11:18.366 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% in the National Guard into some sort of a negative, I would be deeply skeptical about -- 11:18.366 --> 11:21.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But this is Trump's -- one of Trump's magic tricks is he sort 11:21.666 --> 11:25.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% of has Teflon about all of these, right? I mean -- 11:25.466 --> 11:28.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% PETER BAKER: I remember somebody reporting though that his view of military services, 11:28.733 --> 11:30.266 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% those people are suckers and losers. 11:30.266 --> 11:31.566 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: I remember that. 11:31.566 --> 11:32.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% PETER BAKER: I read that someplace. 11:32.866 --> 11:33.766 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: I read that (INAUDIBLE). 11:33.766 --> 11:35.733 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% GLASSER: Credible sources. 11:35.733 --> 11:38.433 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes, very credible sources, actually. 11:38.433 --> 11:43.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% The -- talking about spurious allegations, I want to bring up in a euphemistic way 11:49.266 --> 11:52.766 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% something that's happening in politics that I find disturbing, 11:52.766 --> 11:57.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% which is that there is a story that's very popular in social media about J.D. Vance and 12:01.466 --> 12:06.466 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% the unnatural use of a couch. Let's just leave it at that. It's totally made up. 12:07.933 --> 12:10.400 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% And the thing that's interesting and a little bit disturbing, 12:10.400 --> 12:14.533 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% we're talking about swift boating and the making of totally false allegations, it seems that the 12:16.633 --> 12:19.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Democrats really love this particular shtick. And you at home who aren't aware of this, 12:21.933 --> 12:24.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% God bless you for being normal, you could Google it if you need to, if you don't know 12:24.800 --> 12:29.466 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% what we're talking about. But talk about that for a little. You've had some thoughts on this. 12:29.466 --> 12:33.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% MICHAEL SCHERER: I agree with you, I think it's actually sort of a terrifying development for 12:33.633 --> 12:37.866 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% our political discussion. I mean, it used to be that you could sort of try and slime somebody, 12:37.866 --> 12:41.800 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% but you slime somebody based on something that has some connection to reality. 12:41.800 --> 12:44.266 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. 12:44.266 --> 12:47.300 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% MICHAEL SCHERER: This was an online meme, a joke based on absolutely nothing, basically a slander. 12:48.066 --> 12:49.633 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. 12:49.633 --> 12:51.800 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% MICHAEL SCHERER: But it's kind of because it's so absurd, 12:51.800 --> 12:56.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% and it has opened the door to that genre of slander for humor's sake, just to be mean, 12:58.566 --> 13:03.300 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% taking place all over the place. Republicans were making up stories about Tim Walz this week and 13:05.666 --> 13:08.433 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% creating their own memes. We won't talk about what they are, totally baseless, totally fraudulent. 13:10.100 --> 13:12.433 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% And if we continue down this path, we're headed to a place where 13:12.433 --> 13:17.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% anybody who enters the public square will be immediately slimed with some joke about what 13:19.566 --> 13:23.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% they did with a rabbit once or something like that. And it's just like a bottomless pit. 13:25.500 --> 13:28.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% GLASSER: Yes. I feel like we already went to the bottom place. I mean, you know, 13:28.533 --> 13:33.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the entire brand of Donald Trump in politics is to say lies about people and to, in particular, 13:36.433 --> 13:41.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% lies that demean them personally and whatever their personal characteristics are. And he gets 13:43.400 --> 13:46.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% thousands of people to cheer and laugh and applaud at that. And that has been a core 13:46.133 --> 13:51.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% part of his appeal to this country for the last nine years. So, if we're talking about 13:53.133 --> 13:55.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a race to the bottom, sadly, I just feel like we're living in that world already. 13:55.200 --> 13:57.366 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% MICHAEL SCHERER: But we should call it out. 13:57.366 --> 13:59.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% SUSAN GLASSER: By the way, I don't advocate this. I'm not saying that this is a good thing 13:59.866 --> 14:04.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% that Democrats are now getting in on the act, but, sadly, we've been living in that world. 14:06.533 --> 14:08.833 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% MICHAEL SCHERER: I'm not excusing anything Donald Trump's done. I mean, 14:08.833 --> 14:12.066 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% we should, and we do call that out. It's just once you say, well, they did it, so we can do it too. 14:13.266 --> 14:15.133 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% SUSAN GLASSER: Oh yes. I mean, that's -- 14:15.133 --> 14:17.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% ADAM HARRIS: And I should add, back to sort of the military conversation, 14:17.100 --> 14:20.466 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% right, Democrats clearly have a limit to what they will do, because, you know, 14:20.466 --> 14:22.866 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% they were asked about J.D. Vance's service as well, and they said, well, 14:22.866 --> 14:26.433 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% we admire anybody who serves and, you know, who's willing to risk their life. 14:26.433 --> 14:28.900 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: So, there's some restraint somewhere. 14:28.900 --> 14:30.366 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% ADAM HARRIS: Yes. 14:30.366 --> 14:33.000 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But most of the restraints are off. 14:33.000 --> 14:37.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Susan, I want to go to something that you wrote just yesterday. You wrote a piece in The New 14:37.400 --> 14:42.400 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Yorker about how Trump might very well be missing Biden at this point. Go into that a little bit. 14:45.100 --> 14:48.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% SUSAN GLASSER: Well, I mean, you know, it's amazing. Obviously it's been an incredible 14:48.666 --> 14:53.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% whirlwind. We are speaking today on day 19 only since Joe Biden dropped out, was pushed out, 14:57.666 --> 15:02.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% you know, decided to exit the presidential race. And, you know, the world has sort of been 15:05.066 --> 15:07.733 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% reinvented since then. The one person who's still talking about Biden in American politics has been 15:09.800 --> 15:14.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Donald Trump. He has repeatedly been posting on social media about him during this press 15:16.800 --> 15:20.833 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% conference at Mar-a-Lago yesterday. He repeatedly unasked for, you know, kept going back to, he says 15:23.200 --> 15:27.266 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% that it's unfair that Joe Biden is not in the race anymore. He says that he's even repeated multiple 15:29.833 --> 15:34.833 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% times that it's somehow unconstitutional that Joe Biden is no longer the Democratic nominee. 15:36.933 --> 15:41.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I suppose in the interest of fact-checking, he has not been able to cite a provision of 15:41.233 --> 15:46.233 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% the Constitution that might apply in this case. But, you know, what it speaks to is that Trump 15:48.266 --> 15:52.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% has spent not just this campaign season, but, you know, the four-year campaign before that, 15:54.466 --> 15:59.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% running against Joe Biden, thinking about how to tear down Joe Biden, you know, marinating 16:01.600 --> 16:05.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% in the idea that he had this race won because Biden was such a weakened incumbent. And he 16:07.433 --> 16:10.466 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% has really struggled, I think, to come up with a retooled campaign for an entirely different thing. 16:12.566 --> 16:16.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And just the one thing that it seems to me most important about Biden's exit, as it pertains to 16:18.833 --> 16:23.700 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Trump, is that it's just taken the issue of the future and given it back to Democrats, given it 16:27.200 --> 16:32.200 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% back to Harris. It's now Donald Trump, who is the candidate who looks old, whose fitness for office 16:34.566 --> 16:38.833 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% is the issue. And I think that press conference, in many ways, really showcased those questions. 16:40.733 --> 16:42.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Wasn't it Nikki Haley who said that the first party to dump 16:42.666 --> 16:45.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% its 80-year-old candidate will win? I think it's an interesting observation. 16:45.600 --> 16:50.600 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% I want to ask you about something else that Susan wrote. You know, Trump seems to miss Biden. The 16:53.300 --> 16:58.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Democrats don't seem to miss him at all. His name was not invoked at the opening rally 16:58.300 --> 17:03.300 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% in Philadelphia, Harris and Walz. And it was a little perturbing. I don't know if you -- I mean, 17:05.366 --> 17:09.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I guess you all picked up on that too. What's going on here with Biden and the party? 17:09.300 --> 17:12.633 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% PETER BAKER: Yes. Well, he's basically disappeared, right? He has -- he's doing 17:12.633 --> 17:17.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a few events here and there, and now he's off in Delaware for the long weekend. He is going to do 17:17.100 --> 17:22.100 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% his first joint appearance with Vice President Harris next Thursday. That's the first one since 17:24.166 --> 17:26.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% his departure from the race, and it's more than three weeks after, and then he's going 17:26.433 --> 17:30.433 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% to have Monday night at the convention instead of Thursday night at the convention. Thursday 17:30.433 --> 17:34.266 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% night's the night, of course, the nominee gets. Monday night's the night you get when you're the 17:34.266 --> 17:39.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% former president. And so it's a real step down for him. And then as soon as that speech is 17:41.433 --> 17:44.033 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% done on Monday night of that convention, he will disappear for the rest of the week on vacation. 17:44.033 --> 17:48.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% So, he's kind of exiting the stage a little bit. Now, you could say maybe he's a little, 17:48.633 --> 17:52.200 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% you know, perturbed that they pushed him out of the race. Maybe he's a little unhappy about that, 17:52.200 --> 17:56.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% or he's leaving the stage to her so that she can build up herself as the candidate, 17:56.633 --> 17:59.500 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% maybe a little bit of both. But no question about it that he has, 17:59.500 --> 18:03.333 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% in fact, sort of receded at this point while she has, you know, jumped -- 18:03.333 --> 18:05.366 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: So, quickly. PETER BAKER: Yes, so quickly. 18:05.366 --> 18:08.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% MICHAEL SCHERER: Democrats are trying to make this a change election. And, you know, 18:08.633 --> 18:11.900 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% Harris is an incumbent. She's running as part of an incoming administration, 18:11.900 --> 18:15.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% but they very much want to present themselves as something fresh and something new to 18:15.466 --> 18:19.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the country. And so Biden complicates that argument and will continue to complicate it. 18:19.800 --> 18:24.800 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Let's go to Mar-a-Lago, not literally. Move the 18:26.933 --> 18:30.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% table there. That would be a great place to film. You just came back from Mar-a-Lago from 18:32.133 --> 18:35.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% that press conference. It was kind of a greatest hits montage press conference. 18:38.466 --> 18:43.466 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% I want you to watch one moment from it and we can talk about this and others. 18:45.733 --> 18:48.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% DONALD TRUMP (R), Former U.S. President, 2024 Presidential Nominee: I've spoken to the biggest 18:48.066 --> 18:51.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% crowds. Nobody's spoken to crowds bigger than me. If you look at Martin Luther King, when he 18:53.300 --> 18:57.266 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% did his speech, his great speech, and you look at ours, it's same real estate, same everything, 18:59.300 --> 19:03.033 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% same number of people. If not, we had more. 19:03.033 --> 19:08.033 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: You know, one thing I noticed from that is that he took a break to call the I 19:10.333 --> 19:12.700 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Have a Dream speech a great speech, which maybe that means that he still thinks that black men 19:12.700 --> 19:17.633 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% are in play. I don't know, but it was -- that was even for Donald Trump, kind of the compare 19:20.666 --> 19:25.666 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% yourself to Martin Luther King Jr., I thought that was -- give us the general sense. You were right 19:27.733 --> 19:31.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% there in the room. He seemed simultaneously filled with a kind of a bragging quality, 19:35.866 --> 19:40.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% but also a little bit lost, couldn't hear the questions sometimes. What was the mood there? 19:42.966 --> 19:45.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% MICHAEL SCHERER: Well, you know, it was actually when he got the question about the crowd size 19:45.333 --> 19:49.533 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% that the tone of that press conference changed. He came out just bashing Harris, bashing Biden, 19:51.600 --> 19:55.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% bashing Democrats, hitting them on issues, which is what his campaign wants them to be doing, 19:57.366 --> 20:01.000 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% hitting Walz. And then as soon as he got the crowd size question, 20:01.000 --> 20:04.033 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% it was like a whole new -- like it was going straight to the heart 20:04.033 --> 20:08.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% of who -- what his identity is. And it started to sort of go off the rails there. 20:08.800 --> 20:13.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I thought it was a, I mean, we came down to Florida, a bunch of reporters, for a background 20:15.966 --> 20:20.100 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% briefing that morning by senior campaign staff. And when Trump found out that we were going to be 20:22.333 --> 20:27.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% down there, and this was a very classic thing that campaigns do, here's how we're targeting voters, 20:29.066 --> 20:31.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% here's what our polling says, I mean, just sort of the basics of a campaign, he said, 20:31.633 --> 20:34.466 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% let's get buses, let's bring them to Mar-a-Lago, I want to talk to them. 20:34.466 --> 20:39.166 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And what was striking about that day was how different the substance of the morning 20:39.166 --> 20:43.133 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% presentation was, in which the campaign is doing very traditional campaign things. They 20:43.133 --> 20:47.633 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% have a message against Harris. They're going to prosecute the message. They have door knocking. 20:47.633 --> 20:50.966 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% They have ads, you know, they know that they have something they're trying to 20:50.966 --> 20:54.866 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% do. And then they have a candidate who they don't control. And there's just a 20:54.866 --> 20:59.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% disconnect there. You know, most campaigns exist to discipline their candidates. And 21:02.233 --> 21:04.433 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% the Trump campaign is built differently. The campaign exists, and they have their candidate, 21:04.433 --> 21:08.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% and then the campaign reacts to their candidate, and sometimes tries to manage it. 21:08.233 --> 21:13.233 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. I want to talk about - - it's fascinating. We're watching in real time 21:15.666 --> 21:19.233 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% the Trump campaign and Trump separately, I guess, pivot to figuring out what's the argument against 21:21.366 --> 21:24.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Kamala Harris that would work. Something that obviously Trump was trying out last week, Adam, 21:27.066 --> 21:30.200 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% was this, she's not really black, she's Indian, she never said she was black, which is kind of 21:32.366 --> 21:35.800 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% interesting if you go to Howard University as an 18-year-old. You're kind of signaling something 21:35.800 --> 21:40.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% about your sense of who you are. But it seems to have dropped off a little bit. 21:42.500 --> 21:46.766 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% Are we just in the sort of the tryout where he's seeing what will stick? 21:46.766 --> 21:51.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% ADAM HARRIS: Yes, it seems like a really spaghetti on the wall sort of phase that 21:51.133 --> 21:55.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% we're going through where they're not -- they were really sure how to run against 21:55.333 --> 21:59.766 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Joe Biden. The entire campaign strategy was built around the idea that we're going 21:59.766 --> 22:04.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% to win because we're running against Joe Biden. We're old, but he's older, right, 22:04.066 --> 22:08.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% all of these things. He doesn't get people excited. Our base is sort of built in. They 22:08.100 --> 22:13.100 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% don't necessarily have that for Kamala Harris. And so, effectively, what he's trying to do, 22:15.200 --> 22:17.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% you mentioned kind of the maybe he still thinks that black men are in play. He says that at the 22:17.333 --> 22:22.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% press conference yesterday, right? We're doing better with black men than Harris is. 22:23.800 --> 22:26.233 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Is there proof of the polling of that? 22:26.233 --> 22:29.800 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% ADAM HARRIS: Not necessarily, right? He's running a little bit better than in 2020. But, you know, 22:34.466 --> 22:38.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% the issue here is going to be whether or not he is actually going to turn those voters out or if 22:38.066 --> 22:43.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% those voters are actually going to stay home. There is a sort of streak in the sort of black 22:45.266 --> 22:49.000 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% masculinity that would lean towards Trump, but black women are notably, you know, very much in 22:51.366 --> 22:56.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% the block for Kamala Harris. Sort of we've seen the excitement shift in the polling where some of 22:58.166 --> 23:01.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% those voters who were willing to go with Trump when it was Biden are shifting back to Kamala. 23:03.600 --> 23:06.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% But I think there's also -- there's a little bit about like thinking of the economy, right? 23:06.666 --> 23:11.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Most voters are saying that the economy is the thing that we are going to go to the polls about, 23:13.766 --> 23:16.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% right? 30, somewhere around 36 percent will save the economy over any other issue. And, 23:18.800 --> 23:22.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% you know, Vice President Harris staying away from President Biden at the moment is probably 23:24.866 --> 23:27.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a good thing for her to sort of keep a little bit of distance, as the campaign is trying. 23:27.266 --> 23:31.633 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But very quickly, I'm hearing that you're not necessarily thinking that the 23:33.400 --> 23:36.300 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% play that Trump might be running, what race is she, she's this, she's that, 23:36.300 --> 23:41.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% it doesn't seem to have a salience that, let's say, birtherism had a long time ago. 23:43.133 --> 23:45.533 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% ADAM HARRIS: No. Yes, it seemed like an offhanded remark, right. As he was kind 23:45.533 --> 23:50.333 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% of going through that conversation at the National Association of Black Journalists, 23:50.333 --> 23:54.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% he was really just sort of throwing out anything that he could that might stick. 23:54.000 --> 23:57.766 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Well, you know, by the way, that's a huge -- you bring up a huge issue. Susan, 23:57.766 --> 24:02.733 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% you're a day-to-day, hour-to-hour tracker of the many moods of Donald Trump, and the statements 24:04.800 --> 24:08.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% of Donald Trump. You know, we sometimes think that there's a plan behind things but, 24:10.533 --> 24:13.266 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% you know, you use the term offhand. When you're watching Trump and tracking him week-to-week, 24:15.566 --> 24:18.500 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% how much do you think is just stuff that comes out spontaneously and how much do you think that 24:18.500 --> 24:23.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% he's thinking, I'm going to create confusion about her, the nature of her racial identity? 24:25.466 --> 24:27.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% SUSAN GLASSER: Okay. So, I think that Michael's point is a very important point, 24:27.300 --> 24:29.900 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% which is that there's -- just as there was during the Trump administration, 24:29.900 --> 24:34.900 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% there's the Trump administration's policy and then there's what President Trump was doing, 24:37.000 --> 24:39.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% and they were often at odds with each other. That clearly is the case in the campaign. 24:39.233 --> 24:44.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% But to the point about Trump, he's obviously not some kind of like, you know, 3D chess player, 24:44.066 --> 24:49.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% okay? He's very undisciplined, and so it's often revealing what he says. However, 24:50.733 --> 24:55.466 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% my view is that he does have certain, you know, playbook. And, you know, 24:57.533 --> 25:00.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a 78-year-old man, he's not going to reinvent himself. He's not getting a new playbook. 25:00.266 --> 25:05.233 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% This kind of racism and race baiting and bringing this up is ingrained in him. It is one of his 25:07.333 --> 25:10.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% plays. And I think that his play here is not to get more of the black male vote, it's signaling 25:12.866 --> 25:17.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% very clearly to his white supporters, hey, remember, I'm running against a woman of color. 25:19.866 --> 25:22.333 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% And it seems to me that, you know, we're overthinking this 25:22.333 --> 25:27.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% and we do this all the time with Trump. We don't need to overthink it. Like, yes, 25:27.066 --> 25:32.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% he wants to bring up race in the campaign because he thinks it's a liability for her. 25:34.233 --> 25:37.233 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Well, we'll find out next week what game he is playing, if it's not 3D chess. 25:37.233 --> 25:41.433 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% But, unfortunately, we need to leave it there for now. I want to thank our panelists for sharing 25:41.433 --> 25:45.666 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% their reporting and their observations. And to our viewers at home, thank you for joining us. 25:45.666 --> 25:48.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% For more on Donald Trump's press conference, please visit theatlantic.com. 25:48.800 --> 25:52.500 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% I'm Jeffrey Goldberg. Good night from Washington.