1 00:00:01,433 --> 00:00:03,333 So, imagine this, a woman of black and Asian descent, 2 00:00:03,333 --> 00:00:06,933 who was a failed candidate for the Democratic nomination in 2020, 3 00:00:06,933 --> 00:00:11,733 and who was a semi-marginalized vice president in a fairly unpopular administration, 4 00:00:11,733 --> 00:00:16,200 may beat a former president of the United States in the race for the White House. 5 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:21,200 This is completely improbable. But what is also completely improbable is that the former president 6 00:00:23,233 --> 00:00:26,266 she's trying to beat is a convicted felon who encouraged a violent insurrection against the 7 00:00:28,366 --> 00:00:31,300 constitutional order and who has promised to be a dictator on his first day back in office. 8 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:35,366 It's all a bit much when you think about it, but it's not too much for our panel 9 00:00:35,366 --> 00:00:40,200 tonight. Peter Baker is Chief White House Correspondent at The New York Times. McKay 10 00:00:42,233 --> 00:00:45,266 Coppins is my colleague and a staff writer for The Atlantic. Eugene Daniels is White 11 00:00:45,266 --> 00:00:50,233 House correspondent and co-author of Playbook at Politico. And Vivian Salama is national 12 00:00:52,133 --> 00:00:55,200 politics reporter for The Wall Street Journal. So, thanks all for being here. 13 00:00:55,200 --> 00:01:00,233 National political politics, I know, it's all one long word. 14 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:03,933 Thank you all for being here. We have a lot to get to. 15 00:01:05,966 --> 00:01:09,666 The only thing that I ask tonight is that we don't use the expression, vibe shift, 16 00:01:11,166 --> 00:01:14,066 because I'd think it's too much with the vibes. But -- no, no, 17 00:01:14,066 --> 00:01:19,066 no, no, no, it's like everybody gets one vibe. You can't get one vibe in the next half hour. 18 00:01:21,166 --> 00:01:24,933 But, Peter, let's start with you. I want you all to frame out some big picture subjects 19 00:01:26,833 --> 00:01:30,700 for us tonight. How did we get here to that situation that I just described? 20 00:01:32,866 --> 00:01:35,033 PETER BAKER, Chief White House Correspondent, The New York Times: Well, it is worth stopping 21 00:01:35,033 --> 00:01:38,533 for a moment and thinking about what this year has been like, right? And you alluded to this. 22 00:01:38,533 --> 00:01:43,533 We have a president on trial for the first time in our history convicted of 34 felonies. We have 23 00:01:45,766 --> 00:01:48,133 a Supreme Court that then steps in and says, well, maybe presidents actually have immunity 24 00:01:48,133 --> 00:01:52,333 even though it's not in the Constitution anywhere to be found. We have an aging president just, 25 00:01:54,466 --> 00:01:57,533 you know, fading before our eyes, forced out of the race by his own allies, very dramatic 26 00:01:57,533 --> 00:02:02,000 moment. Not even the most dramatic moment of the year. Then his vice president, as you say, 27 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:07,000 a woman of color, the first nominated ever for president by a major party, 28 00:02:08,900 --> 00:02:11,133 and then, of course, two assassination attempts. I mean, you wouldn't make this 29 00:02:11,133 --> 00:02:14,133 stuff up if we had started the year this way. Although maybe you would have, I don't know. 30 00:02:14,133 --> 00:02:15,433 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right, not me. PETER BAKER: You're more creative than I am. 31 00:02:17,500 --> 00:02:20,333 What's really profound about this, though, is what we're going to learn about ourselves, 32 00:02:20,333 --> 00:02:24,500 I think, our country, this next week. And I know that sounds, you know, whatever, 33 00:02:24,500 --> 00:02:29,500 but it's true. We're in such a polarized moment. This race, whatever it's going to be, 34 00:02:29,500 --> 00:02:34,500 as you say, we may not know even by this time next week. It's at best a 51-49 country, 35 00:02:36,633 --> 00:02:40,400 right? And whoever wins is not going to be able to pull them together. Trump won't try. It's 36 00:02:42,533 --> 00:02:44,900 not in his nature. Harris says she will, but, let's face it, it doesn't seem very likely. 37 00:02:44,900 --> 00:02:49,466 It wasn't that long ago we had presidents like Clinton or Bush or Reagan who -- Obama, 38 00:02:49,466 --> 00:02:53,266 who could get into the 60s when it came to their approval rating, who could earn the support of 39 00:02:53,266 --> 00:02:56,400 people who don't necessarily support them by doing something that they like or not like. 40 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:58,433 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But Obama is an interesting example, 41 00:02:58,433 --> 00:03:03,133 of a hugely talented politician who -- one of the most talented politicians in 42 00:03:04,933 --> 00:03:07,266 the last 50 years, who couldn't get at that stage in American history. 43 00:03:07,266 --> 00:03:10,900 PETER BAKER: Not in a sustained way command. And ever since then, basically, 44 00:03:10,900 --> 00:03:15,900 we have not had a president over 50 percent for a sustained period in almost 20 years. 45 00:03:18,166 --> 00:03:21,800 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: So, what I'm hearing you say is that past Tuesday, even if we know on Wednesday, 46 00:03:23,666 --> 00:03:25,533 say, who the next president is going to be, we're not past any of this. 47 00:03:25,533 --> 00:03:27,833 PETER BAKER: We're not past any of it. And we're not going to be past 48 00:03:27,833 --> 00:03:30,966 any of it on January 20th, even once we have actually inaugurated whoever it's going to be. 49 00:03:30,966 --> 00:03:35,000 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. McKay, let me ask you a question about the Republican Party 50 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:40,000 covering a lot in recent years. So, this is the third time in a row that Donald Trump is 51 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:45,200 the nominee of the Republican Party. I read somewhere today that a 30-year-old voter 52 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:49,633 has never had the opportunity to vote for a Republican nominee other than Donald Trump, 53 00:03:49,633 --> 00:03:54,633 going back to Mitt Romney, I guess, if they were 18. Is there a non-Trump 54 00:03:56,533 --> 00:04:01,500 component of the Republican Party at all, or has the takeover been complete? 55 00:04:03,633 --> 00:04:05,700 MCKAY COPPINS, Staff Writer, The Atlantic: The takeover has been complete for a long time, 56 00:04:05,700 --> 00:04:08,833 but there's always a faction of dissidents. They've just been 57 00:04:08,833 --> 00:04:13,800 completely pushed out of the party or any kind of influential portion of the party. 58 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:18,133 Another way to think about this is if you're an 18-year-old American casting your first vote, 59 00:04:19,966 --> 00:04:21,800 Donald Trump has been running for president since you were nine years 60 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:25,633 old. Your entire political consciousness, the GOP, 61 00:04:25,633 --> 00:04:30,633 has been defined by Donald Trump. You don't remember Ronald Reagan, certainly the Bush's, 62 00:04:32,766 --> 00:04:35,700 probably not even Mitt Romney. The conservatism in America is Donald Trump to you, right? 63 00:04:37,700 --> 00:04:42,466 And I've been talking the last few weeks to Republican officials, current, 64 00:04:42,466 --> 00:04:47,466 former elected officials, strategists, donors, and to varying degrees, they're outside of the 65 00:04:49,500 --> 00:04:52,533 MAGA coalition. And all of them have kind of been asking themselves this question, 66 00:04:54,333 --> 00:04:57,033 how did we let this happen? Because if you look at the party over the 67 00:04:57,033 --> 00:05:01,466 last basically decade, there are a ton of off-ramps they could have taken. 68 00:05:01,466 --> 00:05:06,066 All the way back to 2015, when Trump first started running and he denigrated 69 00:05:06,066 --> 00:05:11,066 John McCain's military service, there was a minor eruption of outrage and then nothing, 70 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:17,033 right? And you go through the Access Hollywood tape in 2016, the first impeachment trial in 2020, 71 00:05:19,466 --> 00:05:24,200 certainly after January 6th, the second impeachment trial. There are all these moments 72 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:29,200 that the Republican Party could have, like the Democratic Party did with Joe Biden, coalesced, 73 00:05:31,433 --> 00:05:35,266 right. The donors, the elected officials, the conservative media could have come together and 74 00:05:37,233 --> 00:05:41,033 decided to take a stand against Trump, but they couldn't muster the collective action. 75 00:05:42,966 --> 00:05:46,500 And what's happened is that Trump has remade the Republican Party in a bunch 76 00:05:46,500 --> 00:05:51,500 of different ways. Ideologically, it's more nationalistic, more nativist, certainly, 77 00:05:53,466 --> 00:05:58,400 in the sense that it has become a cult of personality where his lies and distortions 78 00:06:00,433 --> 00:06:03,533 and conspiracy theories are indulged by almost every elected official in his party. 79 00:06:05,933 --> 00:06:09,500 Where the party goes from here is an interesting question. But when I talk to these Republicans, 80 00:06:09,500 --> 00:06:14,066 they're so kind of scarred from the last decade, that a lot of them say, 81 00:06:14,066 --> 00:06:18,466 whether Trump wins or loses, we're not sure we'll be rid of him. You know, 82 00:06:18,466 --> 00:06:23,000 maybe he'll run again in four years, maybe he'll decide to play kingmaker, but the party 83 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:27,600 that he has remade in his image is not going to change overnight, no matter what happens next. 84 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:31,933 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Eugene, let's talk about the Democrats for a minute. So, Kamala Harris, 85 00:06:31,933 --> 00:06:36,933 previously identified at least as, you know, San Francisco liberal, has been running a 86 00:06:39,166 --> 00:06:42,200 very carefully calibrated, centrist, campaign, not much in identity politics at all. I mean, 87 00:06:44,233 --> 00:06:48,733 the fact that she's a woman this far away from the White House has not been part of 88 00:06:48,733 --> 00:06:52,066 the discussion in the same way that it was certainly around Hillary Clinton. 89 00:06:54,266 --> 00:06:58,300 If this works, if this improbable campaign that started only four months ago essentially works, 90 00:07:00,233 --> 00:07:03,900 what does it mean for the future of the Democratic Party? Is she -- does she 91 00:07:06,133 --> 00:07:09,066 govern as a centrist if she becomes president, or where is the, the middle of the party right now? 92 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:13,566 EUGENE DANIELS, White House Correspondent, POLITICO: You know, there's a couple of different 93 00:07:13,566 --> 00:07:16,833 aspects to this. First is, the Kamala Harris that ran in 2019 I don't think is the real 94 00:07:16,833 --> 00:07:21,833 Kamala Harris, right? The ideological aspect of her race was not there. Because, you know, if 95 00:07:23,733 --> 00:07:26,866 you watched it, it felt disingenuous. We're talking in the green room earlier, 96 00:07:26,866 --> 00:07:30,733 and that's because that's not how she actually feels. I think the person you're watching now, 97 00:07:30,733 --> 00:07:33,800 and the policies that she's talking about, the ones that they worked on 98 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:38,233 in the Biden-Harris administration, and the ones that she's added, that's who Kamala Harris is. 99 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:43,033 That is how she wants to govern. She also will be forced into governing as a centrist, 100 00:07:43,033 --> 00:07:47,233 right? It is very likely that there's going to be at least one chamber in Congress that 101 00:07:47,233 --> 00:07:52,233 has Republicans. She's going to have to bend and try to compromise in ways that 102 00:07:53,700 --> 00:07:57,666 a San Francisco liberal wouldn't want to and would fight more on. 103 00:07:57,666 --> 00:08:02,666 And I think as -- when you talk to black women, especially in politics, what they'll tell you 104 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:08,033 is that the first black woman who would be president cannot go in there as some liberal 105 00:08:10,166 --> 00:08:13,800 flipping the table. They will have to figure out how to get to be in the middle because even the, 106 00:08:16,166 --> 00:08:18,633 you know, liberal white voters that voted for her and the moderate white voters that voted for her, 107 00:08:18,633 --> 00:08:21,500 they're going to look at her already as one thing and she has to kind of 108 00:08:21,500 --> 00:08:25,666 find a way to keep that coalition together that she's been building over this time. 109 00:08:25,666 --> 00:08:29,866 I will say the tension point, if she does win, January 20th, 110 00:08:29,866 --> 00:08:33,633 all the -- if you've been paying attention over the last 100-plus days, 111 00:08:33,633 --> 00:08:36,900 the leftist groups have been kind of like letting her go, right? Like you're 112 00:08:36,900 --> 00:08:41,900 not hearing a lot of complaining from folks on climate change or on any of the other issues, 113 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:47,400 gun control, gun safety. On January 20th, they have already said like, it's on, 114 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:51,433 right? They want to get through this election. And if she's going to win, they're ready to battle her 115 00:08:51,433 --> 00:08:55,500 and try to push her to the left and she's going to have to kind of stand firm. That's where -- 116 00:08:55,500 --> 00:08:58,466 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: That's very interesting, because you're saying if she did win the presidency, 117 00:08:58,466 --> 00:09:03,466 she'd be stuck between, let's assume for the moment, a pretty hard right Senate Republican 118 00:09:05,433 --> 00:09:09,200 leadership and a leftist coalition that believes it got her into office. So, I mean, 119 00:09:11,466 --> 00:09:16,400 it doesn't -- going back to sort of what Peter said, it's like this is not -- Tuesday represents 120 00:09:18,633 --> 00:09:22,133 the end of -- possible end of one type of uncertainty, but we're in this polarization for -- 121 00:09:24,133 --> 00:09:29,133 EUGENE DANIELS: And what it reminds us is that the Democratic Party continues to be 122 00:09:31,233 --> 00:09:35,933 a more centrist party, right? When you look at Obama, who despite what people thought 123 00:09:37,833 --> 00:09:40,500 kind of operated as a centrist, Biden, centrist, Kamala Harris, a centrist, 124 00:09:40,500 --> 00:09:45,033 the base of the Democratic Party continues to be black voters. They are still more centrist and 125 00:09:45,033 --> 00:09:50,033 more pragmatic as opposed to ideological. And so the takeover of the Democratic Party as a 126 00:09:52,300 --> 00:09:55,333 Republican Party has found out it hasn't happened on the Democratic Party, to say it with the left. 127 00:09:57,733 --> 00:10:00,500 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Vivian, talk about the coming days. No predictions. I'm not asking you to tell 128 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:04,600 me who's going to win. I'd like you to tell me who's going to win, but I don't expect it. 129 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:06,633 MCKAY COPPINS: If you know, please tell us. 130 00:10:06,633 --> 00:10:07,633 VIVIAN SALAMA, National Politics Reporter, The Wall Street Journal: I don't think 131 00:10:07,633 --> 00:10:09,100 I'd be doing this -- 132 00:10:09,100 --> 00:10:11,066 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: No, no, no, no, no, no. She knows. 133 00:10:11,066 --> 00:10:13,533 MCKAY COPPINS: There are betting markets. 134 00:10:13,533 --> 00:10:17,933 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes, yes, yes, yes. Somehow, she knows. I know that she knows. But give us a couple 135 00:10:19,966 --> 00:10:24,100 of likely outcomes or processes that we're going to see kick into motion after Tuesday. 136 00:10:28,133 --> 00:10:31,533 VIVIAN SALAMA: Well, let's put it this way. I'm booked to be in Palm Beach next week with 137 00:10:31,533 --> 00:10:35,966 Donald Trump, and right now, my return ticket is Thursday. Maybe it'll be bumped to Friday, 138 00:10:35,966 --> 00:10:39,500 so we don't actually know. The likelihood that we will have 139 00:10:39,500 --> 00:10:44,433 the results on Tuesday is a stretch. It could happen, but it's a stretch. 140 00:10:44,433 --> 00:10:46,633 But let's talk about scenarios. 141 00:10:46,633 --> 00:10:49,466 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It would have to be a blowout. It would have to be a Trump blowout probably. 142 00:10:49,466 --> 00:10:51,833 VIVIAN SALAMA: It would have to be a blowout by one or the other, right? 143 00:10:51,833 --> 00:10:55,933 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Well, no. But my point is that if Kamala Harris wins by a lot, 144 00:10:55,933 --> 00:10:58,966 there's no expectation that Donald Trump will accept that. He's certainly not 145 00:10:58,966 --> 00:11:01,933 going to accept a squeaker, but he's not going to accept that. 146 00:11:01,933 --> 00:11:05,500 VIVIAN SALAMA: Right. And so I think we're looking more and more likely that we're going 147 00:11:05,500 --> 00:11:10,466 to have a squeaker scenario. So, either Harris wins in a squeaker, and how does that happen. 148 00:11:10,466 --> 00:11:14,933 The most likely path is that she gets that blue wall that we talk about all the time, 149 00:11:14,933 --> 00:11:19,933 Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, throw in maybe the second congressional district 150 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:24,500 in Nebraska where she's doing quite well, and you have a win there. And that probably 151 00:11:24,500 --> 00:11:29,500 would be propelled by older white voters that would be turning out for her and also women. 152 00:11:31,466 --> 00:11:35,400 The opposite, a Trump squeaker, which the campaign all along has said Pennsylvania, 153 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:40,333 North Carolina, Georgia are the must-win states for them. That would be absolutely essential, 154 00:11:40,333 --> 00:11:43,533 and that would probably be credited to more black and Hispanic voters, 155 00:11:43,533 --> 00:11:46,133 definitely black voters especially, turning out for Trump. 156 00:11:46,133 --> 00:11:50,433 And so those are the scenarios that we are most likely looking at. There are tons of scenarios we 157 00:11:50,433 --> 00:11:54,700 could sit here and talk about, it would take the whole show. But we're going to focus on those. 158 00:11:54,700 --> 00:11:59,666 Now, just like you said, if we are sitting there, if I'm sitting in Palm Beach next week, 159 00:12:02,066 --> 00:12:04,833 and we have a race that is too close to call, or a potential Harris victory, does Trump accept that? 160 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:10,666 He's already started talking about voter fraud in Pennsylvania. He has credited law enforcement for 161 00:12:10,666 --> 00:12:15,666 doing such a good job in getting ahead of it. But he's already starting to float that phrase around. 162 00:12:18,033 --> 00:12:21,466 We have seen them worry about states like Arizona, where we saw the drama unfold in 2020 in Maricopa 163 00:12:23,866 --> 00:12:27,633 County with audits and claims of election fraud. And so there's already sort of this bubbling up. 164 00:12:29,700 --> 00:12:34,200 I mean, he was talking yesterday about, you know, if God came down and were the vote counter, 165 00:12:36,500 --> 00:12:39,266 how different the, the results would be. He was talking about how Hispanics love him and he said 166 00:12:39,266 --> 00:12:43,433 he would win California in a landslide if God were the vote counter, because that's how it is. 167 00:12:43,433 --> 00:12:45,233 So, he's obviously still very -- 168 00:12:45,233 --> 00:12:47,300 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: I would like to interview God on that question. 169 00:12:47,300 --> 00:12:51,633 VIVIAN SALAMA: I mean, you know, I'm just saying that now that now I'm skeptical, 170 00:12:51,633 --> 00:12:56,600 but, you know, what do I know? I'm not going to debate God. But, I mean, 171 00:12:58,900 --> 00:13:02,933 that's sort of where his mindset is. And, of course that's probably an extreme case. 172 00:13:02,933 --> 00:13:07,133 But it shows you that he's already sort of throwing that out there now, 173 00:13:07,133 --> 00:13:12,133 trying to line that scenario up. You know, if the reverse were true, and we saw that Trump had a 174 00:13:14,466 --> 00:13:17,633 comfortable lead by Tuesday or were to win in a blowout, for example, would we see the opposite? 175 00:13:17,633 --> 00:13:22,633 Unlikely. I think Vice President Harris would most likely accept the results, pretty quickly concede, 176 00:13:24,666 --> 00:13:28,700 and sort of go along with the democratic process. And so we shall see what happens. 177 00:13:28,700 --> 00:13:33,133 But everyone is worried about what comes next, just as much as they're worried about -- 178 00:13:33,133 --> 00:13:34,666 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: What's your worst case scenario? 179 00:13:34,666 --> 00:13:38,433 I mean that in a nonpartisan way, in terms of chaos or -- 180 00:13:38,433 --> 00:13:43,433 VIVIAN SALAMA: I mean, violence, of course. And it's not farfetched. It's something that we saw 181 00:13:45,566 --> 00:13:48,933 happen. All of us live in the D.C. area. We saw it firsthand at the Capitol. I mean, I had to 182 00:13:51,233 --> 00:13:54,466 fall back because it got so violent on January 6th, 2020. And that is something very realistic.