1 00:00:01,466 --> 00:00:03,433 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It's the third anniversary of the January 6th 2 00:00:03,433 --> 00:00:08,433 insurrection. In just over 300 days, the country will elect its next president 3 00:00:10,300 --> 00:00:13,133 and the leading Republican candidate is the man who inspired the insurrection. 4 00:00:13,133 --> 00:00:15,200 DONALD TRUMP, Former U.S. President: I want to be a dictator for one day. 5 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:19,200 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: President Biden, who is 81 years old and is sagging in popularity, 6 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:21,433 is warning about the threat to democracy. 7 00:00:21,433 --> 00:00:25,000 JOE BIDEN, U.S. President: Trump's assault on democracy isn't just part of his past, 8 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:26,733 it's what he's promising for the future. 9 00:00:26,733 --> 00:00:29,933 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It's going to be a tense 2024, next. 10 00:01:31,433 --> 00:01:34,100 Good evening, and welcome to WASHINGTON WEEK and 11 00:01:34,100 --> 00:01:37,333 Happy New Year. It's not too late to say Happy New Year. 12 00:01:37,333 --> 00:01:42,333 So, in my family, we have pretty regular calendar meetings, or I guess I should say that we aspire 13 00:01:44,300 --> 00:01:47,666 to have pretty regular calendar meetings. And when we actually have them, they're very, 14 00:01:47,666 --> 00:01:52,633 very useful. So, that's what we're going to do tonight here with my other family, 15 00:01:54,100 --> 00:01:56,166 my WASHINGTON WEEK family, and we're going to do it live. 16 00:01:56,166 --> 00:01:59,900 We're going to look at some key events of 2024, all of them leading up to a hugely 17 00:01:59,900 --> 00:02:04,433 important and potentially cataclysmic date, November 5th, Election Day. 18 00:02:04,433 --> 00:02:09,300 So here to go over the calendar with me are Peter Baker, the chief White House correspondent for 19 00:02:09,300 --> 00:02:14,300 The New York Times, Laura Barron-Lopez is the White House correspondent for PBS NewsHour, 20 00:02:15,766 --> 00:02:18,533 Josh Dawsey is an investigations reporter at The Washington Post 21 00:02:18,533 --> 00:02:23,533 and Jerusalem Demsas is my colleague and a staff writer at The Atlantic. 22 00:02:24,233 --> 00:02:27,166 Okay, so it's 2024. 23 00:02:27,166 --> 00:02:28,900 LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ, White House Correspondent, PBS NewsHour: We made it. 24 00:02:28,900 --> 00:02:31,900 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yay, we're 2024. We're here. We're here. We're ready. 25 00:02:33,933 --> 00:02:37,400 So, before we talk about some dates further down the road, I want to just bring up a date 26 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:42,400 that's just come onto our political calendar, February 8th, which I think is the date that the 27 00:02:44,433 --> 00:02:47,333 Supreme Court is going to hear the Colorado case. I just want to hear quickly from the 28 00:02:47,333 --> 00:02:52,300 panel about the meaning of this and what could happen. Peter, why don't you just start us off? 29 00:02:54,433 --> 00:02:56,533 PETER BAKER, Chief White House Correspondent, The New York Times: Yes. So, the Supreme Court 30 00:02:56,533 --> 00:02:58,633 is going to take this case on a relatively quick basis. February 8th will be the oral 31 00:02:58,633 --> 00:03:02,800 arguments before the court, and they expect to give a ruling relatively quickly. And the 32 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:07,333 reason is because, of course, it matters whether or not Donald Trump is excluded or 33 00:03:07,333 --> 00:03:11,200 disqualified from the ballot as we have these primaries going on. In fact, by February 8th, 34 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:16,200 we'll have already had a couple states give us their verdict on the Republican nomination. 35 00:03:18,433 --> 00:03:20,600 So, they need to decide this quickly because, obviously, it has bearing not just on Colorado, 36 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,900 where they have taken him off the ballot, because he, in their view, 37 00:03:23,900 --> 00:03:28,100 committed an insurrection in violation of the 14th Amendment. It actually could apply to many, 38 00:03:28,100 --> 00:03:30,233 many states, if not all states across the board. 39 00:03:30,233 --> 00:03:33,533 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Laura, what's going to happen? 40 00:03:33,533 --> 00:03:34,700 LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: With the Supreme Court case? 41 00:03:34,700 --> 00:03:36,633 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes. 42 00:03:36,633 --> 00:03:38,666 LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Look, I think it's anyone's guess, but I will say that I 43 00:03:38,666 --> 00:03:42,433 know conventional wisdom is that maybe the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump, 44 00:03:42,433 --> 00:03:46,833 that they don't want to get involved in this messy political issue and take him off of the 45 00:03:46,833 --> 00:03:51,833 ballot. Though if you talk to very conservative jurists, like J. Michael Luttig, you know, 46 00:03:53,866 --> 00:03:58,133 they say that if the Supreme Court justices read the very specific texts and are actually 47 00:04:00,266 --> 00:04:03,866 originalists and textualists, as many of them claim to be, of the Constitution, then there's 48 00:04:03,866 --> 00:04:08,633 only one way to interpret it. And the way to interpret it is that Donald Trump is disqualified. 49 00:04:08,633 --> 00:04:11,200 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Josh, what would it mean for Trump if 50 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,533 he actually is thrown off the ballot in Colorado? 51 00:04:14,533 --> 00:04:17,100 JOSH DAWSEY, Investigations Reporter, The Washington Post: Colorado, it probably wouldn't 52 00:04:17,100 --> 00:04:21,033 mean a lot, actually, because he's not really looking to Colorado, he's not looking to Maine, 53 00:04:21,033 --> 00:04:24,900 but it could set a precedent for other states to do things that matter, right? 54 00:04:24,900 --> 00:04:29,900 The actual electoral map for him is pretty thin, and the 270 votes that he needs to get are only 55 00:04:32,233 --> 00:04:35,633 in a number of states that I'm not sure would kick him off the ballot. Maybe they would, but I'm not 56 00:04:35,633 --> 00:04:40,633 sure they would. But they could set a precedent for other states to maybe take further action. 57 00:04:42,500 --> 00:04:46,366 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. And, Jerusalem, what do it mean for national unity or 58 00:04:48,566 --> 00:04:51,833 this fracturing that we're worried about if the Supreme Court actually intervened and said, no, 59 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:56,700 this -- our reading of the Constitution says that Colorado can do that? 60 00:04:56,700 --> 00:04:58,766 JERUSALEM DEMSAS, Staff Writer, The Atlantic: Yes, I mean it's difficult because part of the 61 00:04:58,766 --> 00:05:02,333 reason why the Supreme Court is weighing in is that it's really problematic to have every 62 00:05:02,333 --> 00:05:07,333 state Supreme Court kind of issue different rulings in either direction, Colorado, Maine, 63 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:11,700 and who other else might, and there are challenges building across the country. 64 00:05:11,700 --> 00:05:16,133 But I think it would be a real problem for America whether or not there's a correct kind 65 00:05:16,133 --> 00:05:20,400 of legal analysis if people feel that they were not able to make a decision. Though it 66 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:25,400 is the case that much of our legal system does take its, you know, democracy out of our hands. 67 00:05:27,033 --> 00:05:29,233 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. We'll come back to Colorado in a minute, 68 00:05:29,233 --> 00:05:33,633 but I want to go to some of the broader issues that we're dealing with. And I've asked all four 69 00:05:35,700 --> 00:05:40,700 of you to pick for yourselves a date that has some import on the calendar this year. 70 00:05:46,033 --> 00:05:49,866 And, Laura, let me start with you, because I know you've picked a date that's where we're at 71 00:05:49,866 --> 00:05:54,866 the date, essentially, January 6th. What is it -- three years later, what is its political meaning? 72 00:05:57,100 --> 00:06:01,066 LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Well, for President Biden and for Democrats, it holds still a lot of salience. 73 00:06:01,066 --> 00:06:06,066 And President Biden believes that this is -- that January 6th represents an existential threat, 74 00:06:08,333 --> 00:06:11,466 that that political violence that was inspired by former President Donald Trump and his lies 75 00:06:11,466 --> 00:06:16,466 about the 2020 election, that it still is an ongoing threat as Trump continues to lie about 76 00:06:18,333 --> 00:06:20,666 that election, as well as the upcoming election, and saying that it's rigged. 77 00:06:20,666 --> 00:06:23,800 Republicans though, and these are stunning numbers that just came out 78 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:28,800 from The Washington Post and the University of Maryland, show that 34 percent of Republican 79 00:06:30,766 --> 00:06:34,633 voters believe the debunked conspiracy theory that the FBI organized, encouraged, 80 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:41,266 instigated the January 6th insurrection, 44 percent of Trump voters believe that. 81 00:06:43,266 --> 00:06:46,800 And that isn't something, Jeff, that just happens in a vacuum. They just haven't just 82 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:51,800 continued to believe that. It's because the former president continues to lie about it. Just today, 83 00:06:53,733 --> 00:06:57,033 he said that the FBI was there and was instigating and leading the charge on the case. 84 00:06:57,033 --> 00:07:01,200 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Leading the charge is what he said today, so it ramped up. 85 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:04,433 So, January 6th is proof, if nothing else, 86 00:07:06,266 --> 00:07:09,100 that people live in alternate reality bubbles as we enter this election. 87 00:07:09,100 --> 00:07:11,200 LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: That's right, the conspiracy theories are still very 88 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:15,200 prevalent and the lie about 2020 is still very prevalent amongst Republican voters 89 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:19,100 because Republican leaders, elected officials continue to lie about it. 90 00:07:19,100 --> 00:07:21,300 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Josh, what are you looking at on the calendar? 91 00:07:21,300 --> 00:07:24,400 JOSH DAWSEY: Yes. I'm actually looking later in February at the South Carolina primary. 92 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:28,633 You have Iowa and New Hampshire, the two earliest states. In Iowa, 93 00:07:28,633 --> 00:07:31,900 former President Trump looks to have a pretty decisive lead at this point. 94 00:07:31,900 --> 00:07:35,400 Governor Ron DeSantis has used Iowa as sort of his last stand, 95 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:39,866 trying to go to 99 counties, having a pretty formidable ground game there. But right now, 96 00:07:39,866 --> 00:07:44,266 he's not doing that well on the polls. Nikki Haley in New Hampshire is putting a lot of 97 00:07:44,266 --> 00:07:49,133 time and energy and effort in going all across New Hampshire and trying to take Trump on there. 98 00:07:49,133 --> 00:07:52,700 But in South Carolina, what will be interesting is that's Haley's home state, 99 00:07:52,700 --> 00:07:57,700 right? And if Trump beats her decisively in South Carolina, you could sort of see the primary 100 00:07:59,966 --> 00:08:03,666 ending sooner than later. I mean, all of these states sort of have their own eccentricities, 101 00:08:05,900 --> 00:08:08,833 let's say. They all have their own sort of things that you watch and what will turn out be in this, 102 00:08:10,833 --> 00:08:13,933 that, and the other. But if Trump can win these early states and then win South Carolina, 103 00:08:15,366 --> 00:08:17,166 you could see this whole shebang wrapping up pretty quickly. 104 00:08:17,166 --> 00:08:18,500 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: So, before Super Tuesday? 105 00:08:18,500 --> 00:08:20,000 JOSH DAWSEY: Yes, before Super Tuesday. 106 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,100 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes. Peter, speaking of Super Tuesday, 107 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:29,000 we were talking earlier about the one unique aspect of 2024 is that 108 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:34,000 we have an electoral calendar and a courtroom calendar. Talk about that. 109 00:08:36,033 --> 00:08:38,000 PETER BAKER: Oh my gosh, they're on parallel tracks, right? And we often say when it comes 110 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,200 to Trump, this is extraordinary, this is unprecedented, we've never seen anything 111 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:45,100 like it. But in this case, it really is true, right? We're going to have a president, 112 00:08:45,100 --> 00:08:49,300 a former president, running for president, who will be spending day in and day out in 113 00:08:49,300 --> 00:08:54,300 one courthouse after another. And you look at the calendar, and you see it most starkly in March. 114 00:08:56,333 --> 00:08:59,433 March the 4th is the date the first of the four criminal trials is currently scheduled 115 00:08:59,433 --> 00:09:04,200 to begin. It's the federal election subversion case brought by Jack Smith. 116 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:08,000 Now, that may not happen on that day because they're debating whether or not Trump is immune. 117 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:11,833 He has asked the Circuit Court of Appeals to rule on that, and then that presumably goes 118 00:09:11,833 --> 00:09:15,900 to the Supreme Court. But at the moment, that's when that trial is supposed to begin. Guess what? 119 00:09:15,900 --> 00:09:20,900 March 4th, first trial starts, March 5th is Super Tuesday, right? If they haven't decided, 120 00:09:22,833 --> 00:09:26,100 as Josh said, by South Carolina, they will certainly have decided by March the 5th. 121 00:09:26,100 --> 00:09:30,033 And what that means is the Republican voters will make the decision on who they want to 122 00:09:30,033 --> 00:09:35,033 represent them without benefit of having even a single one of these trials having concluded. 123 00:09:37,033 --> 00:09:39,366 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: right. And it's interesting going back to what Josh said that we might 124 00:09:39,366 --> 00:09:43,500 be in an unusual situation, in which by Super Tuesday, we more or less know who the nominee. So, 125 00:09:45,500 --> 00:09:50,333 before the trials start, I mean, he might be the putative nominee of the -- right now, 126 00:09:51,766 --> 00:09:54,333 all the polls suggest that he is going to be the nominee. 127 00:09:54,333 --> 00:09:56,933 Jerusalem, talk about what you're looking at. 128 00:09:56,933 --> 00:10:00,833 JERUSALEM DEMSAS: Yes. So, I'm thinking about June 30th, which is the end, sort of, 129 00:10:00,833 --> 00:10:05,833 of when the Supreme Court will be releasing its opinions during the primary calendar. And, 130 00:10:07,866 --> 00:10:10,933 I mean, Peter, you just talked a little bit about the immunity that Trump has been asking 131 00:10:12,900 --> 00:10:15,000 the circuit court of Appeals to, federal circuit court of appeals to weigh in on, 132 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,666 and, of course, Supreme Court may weigh in on that, but also the gag 133 00:10:17,666 --> 00:10:22,033 order. He has been trying to get the Supreme Court to lift that from him. 134 00:10:22,033 --> 00:10:27,000 But there's also a bunch of other rulings I think will have a pretty big effect on the election, 135 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,633 of course, when we're talking about what just happened today, 136 00:10:29,633 --> 00:10:33,500 the Supreme Court has decided it will be ruling on whether or not hospitals, 137 00:10:33,500 --> 00:10:38,500 emergency rooms have to perform abortions if women's lives are at risk. Abortion, 138 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:42,866 of course, is a huge issue for both Democrats but also Republicans this year. 139 00:10:42,866 --> 00:10:45,466 And there's another ruling which is going to be really impactful as well, 140 00:10:45,466 --> 00:10:50,433 which is whether or not the FDA appropriately made it easier to get access to an abortion drug, 141 00:10:51,900 --> 00:10:55,933 Mifepristone. And these were decisions made in 2016 and 2021, 142 00:10:55,933 --> 00:11:00,866 and it's happening right in the middle of an election year. And they're all trying to run 143 00:11:00,866 --> 00:11:04,033 away from this issue, but the Supreme Court is clearly not staying out of it. 144 00:11:04,033 --> 00:11:06,666 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Well, let me stay with you for a minute, because there's an issue, 145 00:11:06,666 --> 00:11:11,666 a cultural issue, a culture war issue that Republicans are running too right now. I 146 00:11:13,666 --> 00:11:17,200 think we all agree, raise your hand if you disagree, that abortion doesn't look like a 147 00:11:19,233 --> 00:11:22,433 great general election issue for Republicans, it looks like a good issue for the Democrats. 148 00:11:24,766 --> 00:11:28,133 But over the last couple of weeks, we've seen this with the resignation or forced resignation of the 149 00:11:30,266 --> 00:11:33,300 president of Harvard, we see that the Republicans are developing a pretty potent narrative around 150 00:11:35,533 --> 00:11:38,400 DEI, diversity, equity and inclusion, and the sort of broad basket of affirmative action subjects. 151 00:11:41,033 --> 00:11:45,700 Would you talk for a minute about whether the Republican Party and whether Trump is going 152 00:11:45,700 --> 00:11:50,666 to pivot hard toward this apparently more winning issue for conservatives? 153 00:11:53,633 --> 00:11:57,433 JERUSALEM DEMSAS: Yes. I mean, I think in 2020, people often criticize Democratic 154 00:11:57,433 --> 00:12:01,300 Party presidential candidates for being too Twitter-brained. I feel like this 155 00:12:01,300 --> 00:12:04,933 is another example where potentially Republican candidates are that way. 156 00:12:06,733 --> 00:12:09,200 It is something that has been gaining traction amongst a bunch of candidates. 157 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:14,200 But when you look at polling, and there was a Pew poll in May 2023 that showed 56 percent of 158 00:12:16,333 --> 00:12:19,733 Americans, of American employees, think that DEI in the workplace is a good thing. And when 159 00:12:19,733 --> 00:12:23,433 you look at the partisan splits, there are pretty big partisan splits, but still only 160 00:12:23,433 --> 00:12:28,033 30 percent of Republican employees are saying that DEI in the workplace is a bad thing. 161 00:12:28,033 --> 00:12:33,033 And then another poll in July, a Times/Sienna poll of Republican likely voters found that if 162 00:12:35,100 --> 00:12:38,700 they're picking between a candidate that is trying to attack the woke agenda or one that 163 00:12:38,700 --> 00:12:43,700 believes that corporation -- that government should stay out of what corporations are saying 164 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:48,833 and doing and believing, only 38 percent of Republican primary candidate or voters, 165 00:12:48,833 --> 00:12:53,800 likely primary voters are actually in favor of the candidate that is focused on woke elections. 166 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:57,900 And so this has been a big focus for Ron DeSantis. It's been something that's really 167 00:12:57,900 --> 00:13:02,600 animated a class of people that I think are really vocal in the media and, of course, 168 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:07,600 it's in the big debate around the Christine Gay and the Harvard president. But at the same time, 169 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:14,133 it doesn't seem to me the kind of issue that's really going to animate people at the top of 170 00:13:14,133 --> 00:13:17,533 their ticket, at the top of the issues that they care about or in the general election, 171 00:13:17,533 --> 00:13:19,533 which I think people think it's more of a distraction. 172 00:13:19,533 --> 00:13:22,933 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Peter, any chance that this becomes a winning issue 173 00:13:22,933 --> 00:13:25,733 for conservatives or Republicans, or do you agree with Jerusalem? 174 00:13:25,733 --> 00:13:27,833 PETER BAKER: Well, no, I agree with Jerusalem. I think that's right. And I think the Harvard thing 175 00:13:27,833 --> 00:13:31,866 obviously has provoked a lot of conversation. But the truth is there's a lot of people out 176 00:13:31,866 --> 00:13:36,133 there who don't really care that much about who's the president of Harvard. It may be an elite -- 177 00:13:36,133 --> 00:13:38,433 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Hard to believe. 178 00:13:38,433 --> 00:13:41,333 PETER BAKER: Hard to believe maybe to kind of have an elite conversation that we're having here. But 179 00:13:41,333 --> 00:13:44,300 I think you're right that they would rather talk about DEI than, say, abortion. I mean, 180 00:13:44,300 --> 00:13:49,300 they're trying to move the culture war to turf that they seem to think is more fruitful for them. 181 00:13:51,166 --> 00:13:54,500 But, you know, DeSantis' failure so far to get much traction in the Republican 182 00:13:54,500 --> 00:13:58,433 primaries isn't going to encourage them to do that because he was sort of the avatar of that. 183 00:13:58,433 --> 00:14:00,233 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes. Laura, let me ask the flip 184 00:14:00,233 --> 00:14:03,733 side of that, which is how bad is the abortion issue for Republicans? 185 00:14:03,733 --> 00:14:06,800 LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: It's very bad because of the fact that, 186 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:11,800 look, not just polls, more abortion access is popular when you poll it, 187 00:14:13,666 --> 00:14:17,266 but also the elections themselves. We saw that in the 2022 midterms, I mean, 188 00:14:19,500 --> 00:14:22,700 the whole reason that Democrats didn't lose the Senate and didn't lose massive like margins in 189 00:14:25,866 --> 00:14:30,266 the House, as was expected, it was expected to be a huge takeover of the House for Republicans, 190 00:14:30,266 --> 00:14:35,266 and it was actually a slim, marginal takeover, the reason that that happened was because of abortion. 191 00:14:37,166 --> 00:14:40,700 And so Biden's campaign, Democrats up and down the ballot believe that abortion could 192 00:14:40,700 --> 00:14:45,700 be a really good issue for them, especially if they're able to get it on state ballots, 193 00:14:45,700 --> 00:14:50,700 like Arizona could very well have an abortion access question on the ballot this year. And if 194 00:14:52,533 --> 00:14:55,333 it does, Republican strategists I've talked to there say that that's it, 195 00:14:55,333 --> 00:15:00,100 that's the ball game. You know, Republicans will run off the cliff and we could lose Arizona. 196 00:15:00,100 --> 00:15:04,200 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: I want to -- maybe part of the answer has to do with abortion here, 197 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:08,500 but I want to ask Josh, you just had some very interesting reporting on how 198 00:15:08,500 --> 00:15:13,500 Trump solidified control of the Republican Party over the last three years. Remember, 199 00:15:15,533 --> 00:15:19,200 it seems like distant history now, but there was a moment right after January 6 before, 200 00:15:21,233 --> 00:15:24,233 let's put it, that interregnum between January 6th and when Kevin McCarthy -- remember him? 201 00:15:24,933 --> 00:15:27,066 JOSH DAWSEY: Yes. 202 00:15:27,066 --> 00:15:30,866 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: We'll do a little recap on that. Kevin McCarthy went down to Mar-a-Lago, 203 00:15:30,866 --> 00:15:34,033 sort of hat in hand, and asked for forgiveness or 204 00:15:34,033 --> 00:15:39,033 something. There was a period when it seemed like maybe Trump was finished. 205 00:15:40,933 --> 00:15:43,633 But talk about your reporting just for a minute 206 00:15:43,633 --> 00:15:48,366 on how did he come back to have this kind of total domination. 207 00:15:48,366 --> 00:15:50,833 JOSH DAWSEY: Well, the most dominant factor that sort of crystallized his 208 00:15:50,833 --> 00:15:55,833 support with the Republican Party were the 91 criminal cases, cases he's had against him, 209 00:15:58,066 --> 00:16:00,800 filed by both Jack Smith, the special counsel, but in Georgia and New York. What those have done, 210 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:05,233 according to voters across the country, strategists in other camps, folks, 211 00:16:05,233 --> 00:16:09,400 even other candidates, is they've brought the Republican Party back wedded to him. 212 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:14,400 If you even look in late 2022, which is far past what we were talking about with Kevin McCarthy, 213 00:16:16,266 --> 00:16:18,666 Trump and the Republicans have a very disappointing midterm showing. He then 214 00:16:18,666 --> 00:16:22,133 announces he's running for president. If you remember, he has dinner with Kanye 215 00:16:22,133 --> 00:16:27,133 West and Nick Fuentes, the white supremacist on Mar-a-Lago's patio. And DeSantis announces he 216 00:16:29,133 --> 00:16:33,900 wins 59 to 41 as governor of Florida, right, and he's toying with running for president. 217 00:16:33,900 --> 00:16:38,900 And there was a sense among a lot of the party's elite that DeSantis was the future of the party 218 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:44,100 and that Trump was fading. And then what you see are these indictments across the board, a failure 219 00:16:46,166 --> 00:16:48,900 by DeSantis to get in the race for several months. Then when he gets in the race, he's positive 220 00:16:48,900 --> 00:16:53,900 towards Trump, he's not critical towards Trump, he has no message that takes on Trump in that period, 221 00:16:56,033 --> 00:16:58,933 right? And Trump just begins slashing him left and right and takes away a lot of the things that 222 00:17:01,033 --> 00:17:05,033 Republican voters liked about him. He drives his numbers down in a pretty significant way. 223 00:17:05,033 --> 00:17:09,300 And then Trump hired a fairly sophisticated team of political operatives around him, 224 00:17:09,300 --> 00:17:13,800 unlike he had in some previous campaigns, who started working the rules. They went to all 225 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:18,000 of these states. They changed their rules that made it really hard for other candidates to gain 226 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:22,666 traction. Then they started demanding endorsements and saying, look, if you're not with us now, 227 00:17:22,666 --> 00:17:26,533 we're going to be the nominee, you're going to regret it. And they started twisting arms. 228 00:17:26,533 --> 00:17:31,533 And they created this sort of patina around him that it was inevitable. And then most importantly, 229 00:17:33,533 --> 00:17:36,433 I think he skipped the debates. There was a lot of pressure on him to go to the debates, 230 00:17:36,433 --> 00:17:40,233 particularly early on from the Republican Party. And he said, I'm not doing it. I'm not going to 231 00:17:40,233 --> 00:17:43,733 give them the chance to attack me. I'm not going to give them the stage to give them 232 00:17:43,733 --> 00:17:48,733 the oxygen against me. And it turned out, by all accounts, to be one of his smartest moves. 233 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:52,633 And so what you've seen over the course of a year is the sort of confluence of 234 00:17:52,633 --> 00:17:56,666 decisions that have put him back in the catbird seat of the Republican Party. 235 00:17:56,666 --> 00:18:00,100 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: I mean, I feel a little bit like we're in the upside 236 00:18:00,100 --> 00:18:05,033 down in the sense that 91 indictments, 91 counts, saved his candidacy. So, 182, 237 00:18:08,866 --> 00:18:11,066 he would have been president, he would already be president. 238 00:18:13,033 --> 00:18:15,333 PETER BAKER: Well, it's one of these don't try this at home kids kind of things, 239 00:18:15,333 --> 00:18:19,533 though. It may not work for other candidates to go out and get themselves indicted in order to -- 240 00:18:19,533 --> 00:18:23,066 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: I mean, it's not working for Menendez, obviously. But, 241 00:18:23,066 --> 00:18:26,333 I mean, I can't think of any other candidate in history where this would -- 242 00:18:26,333 --> 00:18:30,200 LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: But there's much more of a cult of personality around Donald Trump. And also, 243 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:35,200 I will say, it has helped him within the base and clearly amongst the primary voters. But I think 244 00:18:37,733 --> 00:18:42,733 that it's not going to help him in the general election and that there are a significant number, 245 00:18:45,033 --> 00:18:48,066 yes, maybe at the margins, but that's all you need in swing states, of disenchanted Republicans, 246 00:18:50,100 --> 00:18:53,233 of independents who don't want someone, who don't want a candidate who is indicted with 247 00:18:55,066 --> 00:18:59,266 90-something felony counts, and they don't want someone who could very well 248 00:18:59,266 --> 00:19:02,466 be convicted. By the general election, he may have at least one conviction. 249 00:19:02,466 --> 00:19:04,133 PETER BAKER: That brings us back to your calendar, right? 250 00:19:04,133 --> 00:19:06,266 LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Right. 251 00:19:06,266 --> 00:19:08,400 PETER BAKER: By November 5th, are any of these trials over, at least to the point of a guilty, 252 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,166 not guilty verdict, and it's very possible one or two of them will. 253 00:19:11,166 --> 00:19:15,000 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. So, Jerusalem, this is the great unknown. The great unknown is we've 254 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:20,000 never had a presidential candidate convicted of a felony during the general election campaign. So, 255 00:19:22,133 --> 00:19:27,133 we don't know how the public will react. I mean, do you think there's a good chance 256 00:19:29,300 --> 00:19:32,300 that people will wholesale abandon him, or is the cult, called a cult, because it's a cult? 257 00:19:34,266 --> 00:19:37,466 JERUSALEM DEMSAS: Well, I think it's not good to get convicted of crimes. I think 258 00:19:37,466 --> 00:19:40,966 it's probably not something that most people want to hear their candidates have done. 259 00:19:40,966 --> 00:19:43,000 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: That's the kind of people I hire at The Atlantic, 260 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,033 people who are against doing crimes. 261 00:19:45,033 --> 00:19:46,833 JERUSALEM DEMSAS: Yes. JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes, we have a high standard. 262 00:19:46,833 --> 00:19:49,300 JERUSALEM DEMSAS: But I also think there's going to be like a varied 263 00:19:49,300 --> 00:19:53,200 reaction from different sorts of people, people who are diehard Trump people, 264 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:58,200 folks who believe that what's happening to him is a witch hunt, it's corrupt, deep state coming 265 00:20:00,233 --> 00:20:03,866 against him. They're not going to, I think, really see much out of a court than saying, oh, 266 00:20:05,900 --> 00:20:09,300 another new story showing that he is a corrupt person, the establishment doesn't like him. 267 00:20:09,300 --> 00:20:11,933 But I do agree that the general election is different. I think 268 00:20:11,933 --> 00:20:15,866 the general electorate are often -- you're looking at often suburban voters who don't 269 00:20:15,866 --> 00:20:18,733 like the chaos of the Trump years, and that will remind them of that. 270 00:20:18,733 --> 00:20:21,666 LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: There's also -- we do have some polling. We have somewhat of a picture on 271 00:20:21,666 --> 00:20:26,433 this. I mean, nearly a quarter of Trump voters say that he should not be the nominee if he's 272 00:20:26,433 --> 00:20:31,433 convicted. So, the conviction element, if there is at least one, could change the dynamic. 273 00:20:33,466 --> 00:20:35,966 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But again, we don't know. I mean, we just don't know. We've never seen it. 274 00:20:35,966 --> 00:20:39,466 JOSH DAWSEY: The core strategy of a Trump legal team is to delay all of these trials 275 00:20:39,466 --> 00:20:43,833 as much as they can, to throw as much chum in the water, to file as many things as they can, 276 00:20:43,833 --> 00:20:48,100 to postpone things as long as they can, and to push them all until after the election. 277 00:20:48,100 --> 00:20:53,066 They're trying that at court -- they're trying that. Every way they can, every motion they can, 278 00:20:54,966 --> 00:20:57,200 every procedural thing they can do, the entire strategy is to push this into -- 279 00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,066 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Which suggests that they while they understand 280 00:20:59,066 --> 00:21:04,033 that being indicted is good electoral strategy, being convicted is a bad -- 281 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:07,466 JOSH DAWSEY: Right, they know that. Being convicted in some of these cases, 282 00:21:07,466 --> 00:21:10,700 particularly the J6 case in Washington, which they fear a lot, 283 00:21:10,700 --> 00:21:14,533 because they think it will be a more liberal jury, they worry about that. 284 00:21:16,733 --> 00:21:18,833 JERUSALEM DEMSAS: And the backdrop of this though is that the parties are so much weaker now, 285 00:21:18,833 --> 00:21:21,666 right? You say we haven't really seen this before but also we haven't seen such an apparatus, 286 00:21:21,666 --> 00:21:25,200 Republican Party, Democratic Party. They probably, in another era, would be able to 287 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,733 replace a candidate, would be able to either create the pressure or to have the sort of 288 00:21:28,733 --> 00:21:33,533 control over the way that the primaries play out that they don't really have at this point. 289 00:21:33,533 --> 00:21:35,566 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. I want to -- in our last few minutes, 290 00:21:35,566 --> 00:21:40,533 I want to talk about sort of the mirror image of this conversation, Joe Biden's 291 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:46,433 decision to talk about the Trump threat to democracy as an electoral strategy. Obviously, 292 00:21:48,233 --> 00:21:50,633 it's a moral issue, it's an existential issue, it's a constitutional issue, 293 00:21:50,633 --> 00:21:55,600 but it's also an election strategy, the Valley Forge speech that we just saw. 294 00:21:57,933 --> 00:22:00,633 And before I do that, I want you to listen to something that Trump 295 00:22:00,633 --> 00:22:05,633 just said. This is kind of evocative, I think. 296 00:22:07,533 --> 00:22:10,600 DONALD TRUMP: Crooked Joe is staging his pathetic fear-mongering campaign event in 297 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:14,000 Pennsylvania today. Did you see him? He was stuttering through the whole thing. 298 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:19,000 He's got a -- he's a threat to democracy. They've weaponized government. He's saying 299 00:22:21,866 --> 00:22:26,866 I'm a threat to democracy. He's a threat to democracy. Couldn't read the word. 300 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:38,400 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: So, okay, like vintage Trump with this democracy overlay. I mean, 301 00:22:40,466 --> 00:22:43,700 mocking stuttering and all the rest, put that aside for right now. 302 00:22:43,700 --> 00:22:48,700 So, my question is, it's as stark as can be, Biden is out there saying Donald 303 00:22:51,766 --> 00:22:56,733 Trump's behavior is a total threat to democracy. Trump is doing what he does best, which is flip 304 00:22:58,866 --> 00:23:03,400 the accusation. He's accused of something, he accuses his opponent of doing that same thing. 305 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:08,400 My question is, Laura, do the people of America care about the threat 306 00:23:10,266 --> 00:23:15,100 to democracy as much as they care about economic issues, abortion, social issues? 307 00:23:16,733 --> 00:23:18,866 LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: I believe that they care about it a lot. Now, 308 00:23:18,866 --> 00:23:21,800 is it at the same level as the economy? I mean, polls would say that the economy is still number 309 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:26,800 one. But the 2022 midterm election results, plus polling, has shown Biden's campaign that 310 00:23:30,733 --> 00:23:35,466 Democratic voters care about this. They care about what happened on January 6th. They are 311 00:23:35,466 --> 00:23:40,333 fearful of political violence. And I even heard that when I was out on the campaign trail in 312 00:23:40,333 --> 00:23:44,766 2022 from voters in states like Michigan and in Georgia, that they were worried about this. 313 00:23:44,766 --> 00:23:46,700 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Josh, give us 20 seconds on what 314 00:23:46,700 --> 00:23:51,266 you saw there and what it suggests to you about the campaign as it unfolds. 315 00:23:51,266 --> 00:23:54,300 JOSH DAWSEY: The Trump campaign definitely knows that democracy is going to be one of the leading 316 00:23:54,300 --> 00:23:59,266 lines of attack from Biden's campaign. I mean, you see what they've tried to do since January 6th, 317 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,666 2021, to sort of whitewash what's happened, to sort of make it into something that it wasn't, 318 00:24:06,466 --> 00:24:08,533 to try and keep him from talking about electoral fraud, even though he does it 319 00:24:08,533 --> 00:24:11,900 all the time. A lot of his advisers wouldn't talk about everything else. They understand 320 00:24:11,900 --> 00:24:16,633 it's a vulnerability for them. They think their strengths are attacking Biden on immigration, 321 00:24:16,633 --> 00:24:21,000 on economy, on other issues, but that is fundamentally, and they know that, 322 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:25,366 a weakness of their campaign, that they have to deal with the fallout of all of this. 323 00:24:25,366 --> 00:24:29,466 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Peter, have you ever seen a campaign that's this stark in the 324 00:24:29,466 --> 00:24:34,466 sense that the two candidates are ready to argue about the nature of democracy itself? 325 00:24:36,466 --> 00:24:39,100 PETER BAKER: No, because it's about the fundamental nature of America at this point, 326 00:24:39,100 --> 00:24:41,866 right? It's not about, okay, who has a tax plan is better than the other 327 00:24:41,866 --> 00:24:44,833 guy's tax plan or a health care plan. This is about something whether you 328 00:24:44,833 --> 00:24:48,433 believe in the system as it has existed or whether you're trying to blow it up. 329 00:24:48,433 --> 00:24:52,666 And Trump is not trying to tell us anything other than what he wants to do. It's not a 330 00:24:52,666 --> 00:24:56,833 Democratic talking point to say that he's out for revenge, that he talks about termination of 331 00:24:56,833 --> 00:25:00,300 the Constitution. Those are Trump's talking points. He has been very open that he wants 332 00:25:00,300 --> 00:25:04,900 to get back into power to get revenge against those who crossed him. And if 333 00:25:04,900 --> 00:25:09,233 he has to terminate the Constitution to do it, as he has said, he's willing to do it. 334 00:25:09,233 --> 00:25:12,433 JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Well, it's fascinating, but, unfortunately, we need to leave it 335 00:25:12,433 --> 00:25:17,433 there for now. I want to thank our panelists for joining us and for sharing their reporting. 336 00:25:19,333 --> 00:25:22,266 On PBS News weekend tomorrow, a look at the devastating impact on the children 337 00:25:22,266 --> 00:25:27,266 caught in the crossfire of the Israel-Hamas War. That's Saturday on "PBS NEWS WEEKEND." 338 00:25:28,566 --> 00:25:30,966 I'm Jeffrey Goldberg. Good night from Washington.