WEBVTT 00:01.466 --> 00:03.433 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It's the third anniversary of the January 6th 00:03.433 --> 00:08.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% insurrection. In just over 300 days, the country will elect its next president 00:10.300 --> 00:13.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% and the leading Republican candidate is the man who inspired the insurrection. 00:13.133 --> 00:15.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% DONALD TRUMP, Former U.S. President: I want to be a dictator for one day. 00:15.200 --> 00:19.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: President Biden, who is 81 years old and is sagging in popularity, 00:19.200 --> 00:21.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% is warning about the threat to democracy. 00:21.433 --> 00:25.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JOE BIDEN, U.S. President: Trump's assault on democracy isn't just part of his past, 00:25.000 --> 00:26.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% it's what he's promising for the future. 00:26.733 --> 00:29.933 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It's going to be a tense 2024, next. 01:31.433 --> 01:34.100 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Good evening, and welcome to WASHINGTON WEEK and 01:34.100 --> 01:37.333 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Happy New Year. It's not too late to say Happy New Year. 01:37.333 --> 01:42.333 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% So, in my family, we have pretty regular calendar meetings, or I guess I should say that we aspire 01:44.300 --> 01:47.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% to have pretty regular calendar meetings. And when we actually have them, they're very, 01:47.666 --> 01:52.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% very useful. So, that's what we're going to do tonight here with my other family, 01:54.100 --> 01:56.166 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% my WASHINGTON WEEK family, and we're going to do it live. 01:56.166 --> 01:59.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% We're going to look at some key events of 2024, all of them leading up to a hugely 01:59.900 --> 02:04.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% important and potentially cataclysmic date, November 5th, Election Day. 02:04.433 --> 02:09.300 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% So here to go over the calendar with me are Peter Baker, the chief White House correspondent for 02:09.300 --> 02:14.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% The New York Times, Laura Barron-Lopez is the White House correspondent for PBS NewsHour, 02:15.766 --> 02:18.533 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Josh Dawsey is an investigations reporter at The Washington Post 02:18.533 --> 02:23.533 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% and Jerusalem Demsas is my colleague and a staff writer at The Atlantic. 02:24.233 --> 02:27.166 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Okay, so it's 2024. 02:27.166 --> 02:28.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ, White House Correspondent, PBS NewsHour: We made it. 02:28.900 --> 02:31.900 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yay, we're 2024. We're here. We're here. We're ready. 02:33.933 --> 02:37.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% So, before we talk about some dates further down the road, I want to just bring up a date 02:37.400 --> 02:42.400 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% that's just come onto our political calendar, February 8th, which I think is the date that the 02:44.433 --> 02:47.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Supreme Court is going to hear the Colorado case. I just want to hear quickly from the 02:47.333 --> 02:52.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% panel about the meaning of this and what could happen. Peter, why don't you just start us off? 02:54.433 --> 02:56.533 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% PETER BAKER, Chief White House Correspondent, The New York Times: Yes. So, the Supreme Court 02:56.533 --> 02:58.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% is going to take this case on a relatively quick basis. February 8th will be the oral 02:58.633 --> 03:02.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% arguments before the court, and they expect to give a ruling relatively quickly. And the 03:02.800 --> 03:07.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% reason is because, of course, it matters whether or not Donald Trump is excluded or 03:07.333 --> 03:11.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% disqualified from the ballot as we have these primaries going on. In fact, by February 8th, 03:11.200 --> 03:16.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% we'll have already had a couple states give us their verdict on the Republican nomination. 03:18.433 --> 03:20.600 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% So, they need to decide this quickly because, obviously, it has bearing not just on Colorado, 03:20.600 --> 03:23.900 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% where they have taken him off the ballot, because he, in their view, 03:23.900 --> 03:28.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% committed an insurrection in violation of the 14th Amendment. It actually could apply to many, 03:28.100 --> 03:30.233 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% many states, if not all states across the board. 03:30.233 --> 03:33.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Laura, what's going to happen? 03:33.533 --> 03:34.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: With the Supreme Court case? 03:34.700 --> 03:36.633 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes. 03:36.633 --> 03:38.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Look, I think it's anyone's guess, but I will say that I 03:38.666 --> 03:42.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% know conventional wisdom is that maybe the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump, 03:42.433 --> 03:46.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% that they don't want to get involved in this messy political issue and take him off of the 03:46.833 --> 03:51.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% ballot. Though if you talk to very conservative jurists, like J. Michael Luttig, you know, 03:53.866 --> 03:58.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% they say that if the Supreme Court justices read the very specific texts and are actually 04:00.266 --> 04:03.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% originalists and textualists, as many of them claim to be, of the Constitution, then there's 04:03.866 --> 04:08.633 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% only one way to interpret it. And the way to interpret it is that Donald Trump is disqualified. 04:08.633 --> 04:11.200 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Josh, what would it mean for Trump if 04:11.200 --> 04:14.533 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% he actually is thrown off the ballot in Colorado? 04:14.533 --> 04:17.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JOSH DAWSEY, Investigations Reporter, The Washington Post: Colorado, it probably wouldn't 04:17.100 --> 04:21.033 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% mean a lot, actually, because he's not really looking to Colorado, he's not looking to Maine, 04:21.033 --> 04:24.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% but it could set a precedent for other states to do things that matter, right? 04:24.900 --> 04:29.900 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% The actual electoral map for him is pretty thin, and the 270 votes that he needs to get are only 04:32.233 --> 04:35.633 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% in a number of states that I'm not sure would kick him off the ballot. Maybe they would, but I'm not 04:35.633 --> 04:40.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% sure they would. But they could set a precedent for other states to maybe take further action. 04:42.500 --> 04:46.366 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. And, Jerusalem, what do it mean for national unity or 04:48.566 --> 04:51.833 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% this fracturing that we're worried about if the Supreme Court actually intervened and said, no, 04:53.600 --> 04:56.700 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% this -- our reading of the Constitution says that Colorado can do that? 04:56.700 --> 04:58.766 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JERUSALEM DEMSAS, Staff Writer, The Atlantic: Yes, I mean it's difficult because part of the 04:58.766 --> 05:02.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% reason why the Supreme Court is weighing in is that it's really problematic to have every 05:02.333 --> 05:07.333 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% state Supreme Court kind of issue different rulings in either direction, Colorado, Maine, 05:09.200 --> 05:11.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% and who other else might, and there are challenges building across the country. 05:11.700 --> 05:16.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% But I think it would be a real problem for America whether or not there's a correct kind 05:16.133 --> 05:20.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% of legal analysis if people feel that they were not able to make a decision. Though it 05:20.400 --> 05:25.400 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% is the case that much of our legal system does take its, you know, democracy out of our hands. 05:27.033 --> 05:29.233 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. We'll come back to Colorado in a minute, 05:29.233 --> 05:33.633 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% but I want to go to some of the broader issues that we're dealing with. And I've asked all four 05:35.700 --> 05:40.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% of you to pick for yourselves a date that has some import on the calendar this year. 05:46.033 --> 05:49.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% And, Laura, let me start with you, because I know you've picked a date that's where we're at 05:49.866 --> 05:54.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% the date, essentially, January 6th. What is it -- three years later, what is its political meaning? 05:57.100 --> 06:01.066 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Well, for President Biden and for Democrats, it holds still a lot of salience. 06:01.066 --> 06:06.066 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% And President Biden believes that this is -- that January 6th represents an existential threat, 06:08.333 --> 06:11.466 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% that that political violence that was inspired by former President Donald Trump and his lies 06:11.466 --> 06:16.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% about the 2020 election, that it still is an ongoing threat as Trump continues to lie about 06:18.333 --> 06:20.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% that election, as well as the upcoming election, and saying that it's rigged. 06:20.666 --> 06:23.800 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% Republicans though, and these are stunning numbers that just came out 06:23.800 --> 06:28.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% from The Washington Post and the University of Maryland, show that 34 percent of Republican 06:30.766 --> 06:34.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% voters believe the debunked conspiracy theory that the FBI organized, encouraged, 06:36.600 --> 06:41.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% instigated the January 6th insurrection, 44 percent of Trump voters believe that. 06:43.266 --> 06:46.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And that isn't something, Jeff, that just happens in a vacuum. They just haven't just 06:46.800 --> 06:51.800 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% continued to believe that. It's because the former president continues to lie about it. Just today, 06:53.733 --> 06:57.033 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% he said that the FBI was there and was instigating and leading the charge on the case. 06:57.033 --> 07:01.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Leading the charge is what he said today, so it ramped up. 07:01.200 --> 07:04.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% So, January 6th is proof, if nothing else, 07:06.266 --> 07:09.100 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% that people live in alternate reality bubbles as we enter this election. 07:09.100 --> 07:11.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: That's right, the conspiracy theories are still very 07:11.200 --> 07:15.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% prevalent and the lie about 2020 is still very prevalent amongst Republican voters 07:15.200 --> 07:19.100 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% because Republican leaders, elected officials continue to lie about it. 07:19.100 --> 07:21.300 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Josh, what are you looking at on the calendar? 07:21.300 --> 07:24.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JOSH DAWSEY: Yes. I'm actually looking later in February at the South Carolina primary. 07:24.400 --> 07:28.633 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% You have Iowa and New Hampshire, the two earliest states. In Iowa, 07:28.633 --> 07:31.900 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% former President Trump looks to have a pretty decisive lead at this point. 07:31.900 --> 07:35.400 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Governor Ron DeSantis has used Iowa as sort of his last stand, 07:35.400 --> 07:39.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% trying to go to 99 counties, having a pretty formidable ground game there. But right now, 07:39.866 --> 07:44.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% he's not doing that well on the polls. Nikki Haley in New Hampshire is putting a lot of 07:44.266 --> 07:49.133 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% time and energy and effort in going all across New Hampshire and trying to take Trump on there. 07:49.133 --> 07:52.700 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% But in South Carolina, what will be interesting is that's Haley's home state, 07:52.700 --> 07:57.700 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% right? And if Trump beats her decisively in South Carolina, you could sort of see the primary 07:59.966 --> 08:03.666 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% ending sooner than later. I mean, all of these states sort of have their own eccentricities, 08:05.900 --> 08:08.833 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% let's say. They all have their own sort of things that you watch and what will turn out be in this, 08:10.833 --> 08:13.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% that, and the other. But if Trump can win these early states and then win South Carolina, 08:15.366 --> 08:17.166 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% you could see this whole shebang wrapping up pretty quickly. 08:17.166 --> 08:18.500 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: So, before Super Tuesday? 08:18.500 --> 08:20.000 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JOSH DAWSEY: Yes, before Super Tuesday. 08:20.000 --> 08:22.100 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes. Peter, speaking of Super Tuesday, 08:24.000 --> 08:29.000 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% we were talking earlier about the one unique aspect of 2024 is that 08:29.000 --> 08:34.000 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% we have an electoral calendar and a courtroom calendar. Talk about that. 08:36.033 --> 08:38.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% PETER BAKER: Oh my gosh, they're on parallel tracks, right? And we often say when it comes 08:38.000 --> 08:41.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% to Trump, this is extraordinary, this is unprecedented, we've never seen anything 08:41.200 --> 08:45.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% like it. But in this case, it really is true, right? We're going to have a president, 08:45.100 --> 08:49.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a former president, running for president, who will be spending day in and day out in 08:49.300 --> 08:54.300 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% one courthouse after another. And you look at the calendar, and you see it most starkly in March. 08:56.333 --> 08:59.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% March the 4th is the date the first of the four criminal trials is currently scheduled 08:59.433 --> 09:04.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% to begin. It's the federal election subversion case brought by Jack Smith. 09:04.200 --> 09:08.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Now, that may not happen on that day because they're debating whether or not Trump is immune. 09:08.000 --> 09:11.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% He has asked the Circuit Court of Appeals to rule on that, and then that presumably goes 09:11.833 --> 09:15.900 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% to the Supreme Court. But at the moment, that's when that trial is supposed to begin. Guess what? 09:15.900 --> 09:20.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% March 4th, first trial starts, March 5th is Super Tuesday, right? If they haven't decided, 09:22.833 --> 09:26.100 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% as Josh said, by South Carolina, they will certainly have decided by March the 5th. 09:26.100 --> 09:30.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And what that means is the Republican voters will make the decision on who they want to 09:30.033 --> 09:35.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% represent them without benefit of having even a single one of these trials having concluded. 09:37.033 --> 09:39.366 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: right. And it's interesting going back to what Josh said that we might 09:39.366 --> 09:43.500 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% be in an unusual situation, in which by Super Tuesday, we more or less know who the nominee. So, 09:45.500 --> 09:50.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% before the trials start, I mean, he might be the putative nominee of the -- right now, 09:51.766 --> 09:54.333 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% all the polls suggest that he is going to be the nominee. 09:54.333 --> 09:56.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Jerusalem, talk about what you're looking at. 09:56.933 --> 10:00.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JERUSALEM DEMSAS: Yes. So, I'm thinking about June 30th, which is the end, sort of, 10:00.833 --> 10:05.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% of when the Supreme Court will be releasing its opinions during the primary calendar. And, 10:07.866 --> 10:10.933 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I mean, Peter, you just talked a little bit about the immunity that Trump has been asking 10:12.900 --> 10:15.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the circuit court of Appeals to, federal circuit court of appeals to weigh in on, 10:15.000 --> 10:17.666 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% and, of course, Supreme Court may weigh in on that, but also the gag 10:17.666 --> 10:22.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% order. He has been trying to get the Supreme Court to lift that from him. 10:22.033 --> 10:27.000 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% But there's also a bunch of other rulings I think will have a pretty big effect on the election, 10:27.000 --> 10:29.633 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% of course, when we're talking about what just happened today, 10:29.633 --> 10:33.500 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% the Supreme Court has decided it will be ruling on whether or not hospitals, 10:33.500 --> 10:38.500 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% emergency rooms have to perform abortions if women's lives are at risk. Abortion, 10:40.400 --> 10:42.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% of course, is a huge issue for both Democrats but also Republicans this year. 10:42.866 --> 10:45.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And there's another ruling which is going to be really impactful as well, 10:45.466 --> 10:50.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% which is whether or not the FDA appropriately made it easier to get access to an abortion drug, 10:51.900 --> 10:55.933 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Mifepristone. And these were decisions made in 2016 and 2021, 10:55.933 --> 11:00.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% and it's happening right in the middle of an election year. And they're all trying to run 11:00.866 --> 11:04.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% away from this issue, but the Supreme Court is clearly not staying out of it. 11:04.033 --> 11:06.666 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. Well, let me stay with you for a minute, because there's an issue, 11:06.666 --> 11:11.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a cultural issue, a culture war issue that Republicans are running too right now. I 11:13.666 --> 11:17.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% think we all agree, raise your hand if you disagree, that abortion doesn't look like a 11:19.233 --> 11:22.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% great general election issue for Republicans, it looks like a good issue for the Democrats. 11:24.766 --> 11:28.133 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% But over the last couple of weeks, we've seen this with the resignation or forced resignation of the 11:30.266 --> 11:33.300 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% president of Harvard, we see that the Republicans are developing a pretty potent narrative around 11:35.533 --> 11:38.400 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% DEI, diversity, equity and inclusion, and the sort of broad basket of affirmative action subjects. 11:41.033 --> 11:45.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Would you talk for a minute about whether the Republican Party and whether Trump is going 11:45.700 --> 11:50.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% to pivot hard toward this apparently more winning issue for conservatives? 11:53.633 --> 11:57.433 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JERUSALEM DEMSAS: Yes. I mean, I think in 2020, people often criticize Democratic 11:57.433 --> 12:01.300 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Party presidential candidates for being too Twitter-brained. I feel like this 12:01.300 --> 12:04.933 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% is another example where potentially Republican candidates are that way. 12:06.733 --> 12:09.200 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% It is something that has been gaining traction amongst a bunch of candidates. 12:09.200 --> 12:14.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% But when you look at polling, and there was a Pew poll in May 2023 that showed 56 percent of 12:16.333 --> 12:19.733 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Americans, of American employees, think that DEI in the workplace is a good thing. And when 12:19.733 --> 12:23.433 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% you look at the partisan splits, there are pretty big partisan splits, but still only 12:23.433 --> 12:28.033 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% 30 percent of Republican employees are saying that DEI in the workplace is a bad thing. 12:28.033 --> 12:33.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And then another poll in July, a Times/Sienna poll of Republican likely voters found that if 12:35.100 --> 12:38.700 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% they're picking between a candidate that is trying to attack the woke agenda or one that 12:38.700 --> 12:43.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% believes that corporation -- that government should stay out of what corporations are saying 12:45.600 --> 12:48.833 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% and doing and believing, only 38 percent of Republican primary candidate or voters, 12:48.833 --> 12:53.800 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% likely primary voters are actually in favor of the candidate that is focused on woke elections. 12:55.800 --> 12:57.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And so this has been a big focus for Ron DeSantis. It's been something that's really 12:57.900 --> 13:02.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% animated a class of people that I think are really vocal in the media and, of course, 13:02.600 --> 13:07.600 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% it's in the big debate around the Christine Gay and the Harvard president. But at the same time, 13:10.200 --> 13:14.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% it doesn't seem to me the kind of issue that's really going to animate people at the top of 13:14.133 --> 13:17.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% their ticket, at the top of the issues that they care about or in the general election, 13:17.533 --> 13:19.533 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% which I think people think it's more of a distraction. 13:19.533 --> 13:22.933 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Peter, any chance that this becomes a winning issue 13:22.933 --> 13:25.733 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% for conservatives or Republicans, or do you agree with Jerusalem? 13:25.733 --> 13:27.833 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% PETER BAKER: Well, no, I agree with Jerusalem. I think that's right. And I think the Harvard thing 13:27.833 --> 13:31.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% obviously has provoked a lot of conversation. But the truth is there's a lot of people out 13:31.866 --> 13:36.133 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% there who don't really care that much about who's the president of Harvard. It may be an elite -- 13:36.133 --> 13:38.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Hard to believe. 13:38.433 --> 13:41.333 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% PETER BAKER: Hard to believe maybe to kind of have an elite conversation that we're having here. But 13:41.333 --> 13:44.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I think you're right that they would rather talk about DEI than, say, abortion. I mean, 13:44.300 --> 13:49.300 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% they're trying to move the culture war to turf that they seem to think is more fruitful for them. 13:51.166 --> 13:54.500 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% But, you know, DeSantis' failure so far to get much traction in the Republican 13:54.500 --> 13:58.433 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% primaries isn't going to encourage them to do that because he was sort of the avatar of that. 13:58.433 --> 14:00.233 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes. Laura, let me ask the flip 14:00.233 --> 14:03.733 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% side of that, which is how bad is the abortion issue for Republicans? 14:03.733 --> 14:06.800 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: It's very bad because of the fact that, 14:06.800 --> 14:11.800 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% look, not just polls, more abortion access is popular when you poll it, 14:13.666 --> 14:17.266 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% but also the elections themselves. We saw that in the 2022 midterms, I mean, 14:19.500 --> 14:22.700 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% the whole reason that Democrats didn't lose the Senate and didn't lose massive like margins in 14:25.866 --> 14:30.266 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% the House, as was expected, it was expected to be a huge takeover of the House for Republicans, 14:30.266 --> 14:35.266 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% and it was actually a slim, marginal takeover, the reason that that happened was because of abortion. 14:37.166 --> 14:40.700 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% And so Biden's campaign, Democrats up and down the ballot believe that abortion could 14:40.700 --> 14:45.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% be a really good issue for them, especially if they're able to get it on state ballots, 14:45.700 --> 14:50.700 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% like Arizona could very well have an abortion access question on the ballot this year. And if 14:52.533 --> 14:55.333 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% it does, Republican strategists I've talked to there say that that's it, 14:55.333 --> 15:00.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% that's the ball game. You know, Republicans will run off the cliff and we could lose Arizona. 15:00.100 --> 15:04.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: I want to -- maybe part of the answer has to do with abortion here, 15:04.200 --> 15:08.500 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% but I want to ask Josh, you just had some very interesting reporting on how 15:08.500 --> 15:13.500 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Trump solidified control of the Republican Party over the last three years. Remember, 15:15.533 --> 15:19.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% it seems like distant history now, but there was a moment right after January 6 before, 15:21.233 --> 15:24.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% let's put it, that interregnum between January 6th and when Kevin McCarthy -- remember him? 15:24.933 --> 15:27.066 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% JOSH DAWSEY: Yes. 15:27.066 --> 15:30.866 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: We'll do a little recap on that. Kevin McCarthy went down to Mar-a-Lago, 15:30.866 --> 15:34.033 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% sort of hat in hand, and asked for forgiveness or 15:34.033 --> 15:39.033 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% something. There was a period when it seemed like maybe Trump was finished. 15:40.933 --> 15:43.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% But talk about your reporting just for a minute 15:43.633 --> 15:48.366 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% on how did he come back to have this kind of total domination. 15:48.366 --> 15:50.833 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JOSH DAWSEY: Well, the most dominant factor that sort of crystallized his 15:50.833 --> 15:55.833 align:left position:30% line:71% size:60% support with the Republican Party were the 91 criminal cases, cases he's had against him, 15:58.066 --> 16:00.800 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% filed by both Jack Smith, the special counsel, but in Georgia and New York. What those have done, 16:00.800 --> 16:05.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% according to voters across the country, strategists in other camps, folks, 16:05.233 --> 16:09.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% even other candidates, is they've brought the Republican Party back wedded to him. 16:09.400 --> 16:14.400 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% If you even look in late 2022, which is far past what we were talking about with Kevin McCarthy, 16:16.266 --> 16:18.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Trump and the Republicans have a very disappointing midterm showing. He then 16:18.666 --> 16:22.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% announces he's running for president. If you remember, he has dinner with Kanye 16:22.133 --> 16:27.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% West and Nick Fuentes, the white supremacist on Mar-a-Lago's patio. And DeSantis announces he 16:29.133 --> 16:33.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% wins 59 to 41 as governor of Florida, right, and he's toying with running for president. 16:33.900 --> 16:38.900 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% And there was a sense among a lot of the party's elite that DeSantis was the future of the party 16:41.200 --> 16:44.100 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% and that Trump was fading. And then what you see are these indictments across the board, a failure 16:46.166 --> 16:48.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% by DeSantis to get in the race for several months. Then when he gets in the race, he's positive 16:48.900 --> 16:53.900 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% towards Trump, he's not critical towards Trump, he has no message that takes on Trump in that period, 16:56.033 --> 16:58.933 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% right? And Trump just begins slashing him left and right and takes away a lot of the things that 17:01.033 --> 17:05.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Republican voters liked about him. He drives his numbers down in a pretty significant way. 17:05.033 --> 17:09.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And then Trump hired a fairly sophisticated team of political operatives around him, 17:09.300 --> 17:13.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% unlike he had in some previous campaigns, who started working the rules. They went to all 17:13.800 --> 17:18.000 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% of these states. They changed their rules that made it really hard for other candidates to gain 17:18.000 --> 17:22.666 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% traction. Then they started demanding endorsements and saying, look, if you're not with us now, 17:22.666 --> 17:26.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% we're going to be the nominee, you're going to regret it. And they started twisting arms. 17:26.533 --> 17:31.533 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% And they created this sort of patina around him that it was inevitable. And then most importantly, 17:33.533 --> 17:36.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I think he skipped the debates. There was a lot of pressure on him to go to the debates, 17:36.433 --> 17:40.233 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% particularly early on from the Republican Party. And he said, I'm not doing it. I'm not going to 17:40.233 --> 17:43.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% give them the chance to attack me. I'm not going to give them the stage to give them 17:43.733 --> 17:48.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the oxygen against me. And it turned out, by all accounts, to be one of his smartest moves. 17:50.600 --> 17:52.633 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% And so what you've seen over the course of a year is the sort of confluence of 17:52.633 --> 17:56.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% decisions that have put him back in the catbird seat of the Republican Party. 17:56.666 --> 18:00.100 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: I mean, I feel a little bit like we're in the upside 18:00.100 --> 18:05.033 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% down in the sense that 91 indictments, 91 counts, saved his candidacy. So, 182, 18:08.866 --> 18:11.066 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% he would have been president, he would already be president. 18:13.033 --> 18:15.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% PETER BAKER: Well, it's one of these don't try this at home kids kind of things, 18:15.333 --> 18:19.533 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% though. It may not work for other candidates to go out and get themselves indicted in order to -- 18:19.533 --> 18:23.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: I mean, it's not working for Menendez, obviously. But, 18:23.066 --> 18:26.333 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% I mean, I can't think of any other candidate in history where this would -- 18:26.333 --> 18:30.200 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: But there's much more of a cult of personality around Donald Trump. And also, 18:30.200 --> 18:35.200 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% I will say, it has helped him within the base and clearly amongst the primary voters. But I think 18:37.733 --> 18:42.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% that it's not going to help him in the general election and that there are a significant number, 18:45.033 --> 18:48.066 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% yes, maybe at the margins, but that's all you need in swing states, of disenchanted Republicans, 18:50.100 --> 18:53.233 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% of independents who don't want someone, who don't want a candidate who is indicted with 18:55.066 --> 18:59.266 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% 90-something felony counts, and they don't want someone who could very well 18:59.266 --> 19:02.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% be convicted. By the general election, he may have at least one conviction. 19:02.466 --> 19:04.133 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% PETER BAKER: That brings us back to your calendar, right? 19:04.133 --> 19:06.266 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Right. 19:06.266 --> 19:08.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% PETER BAKER: By November 5th, are any of these trials over, at least to the point of a guilty, 19:08.400 --> 19:11.166 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% not guilty verdict, and it's very possible one or two of them will. 19:11.166 --> 19:15.000 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. So, Jerusalem, this is the great unknown. The great unknown is we've 19:15.000 --> 19:20.000 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% never had a presidential candidate convicted of a felony during the general election campaign. So, 19:22.133 --> 19:27.133 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% we don't know how the public will react. I mean, do you think there's a good chance 19:29.300 --> 19:32.300 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% that people will wholesale abandon him, or is the cult, called a cult, because it's a cult? 19:34.266 --> 19:37.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JERUSALEM DEMSAS: Well, I think it's not good to get convicted of crimes. I think 19:37.466 --> 19:40.966 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% it's probably not something that most people want to hear their candidates have done. 19:40.966 --> 19:43.000 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: That's the kind of people I hire at The Atlantic, 19:43.000 --> 19:45.033 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% people who are against doing crimes. 19:45.033 --> 19:46.833 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JERUSALEM DEMSAS: Yes. JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Yes, we have a high standard. 19:46.833 --> 19:49.300 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JERUSALEM DEMSAS: But I also think there's going to be like a varied 19:49.300 --> 19:53.200 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% reaction from different sorts of people, people who are diehard Trump people, 19:53.200 --> 19:58.200 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% folks who believe that what's happening to him is a witch hunt, it's corrupt, deep state coming 20:00.233 --> 20:03.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% against him. They're not going to, I think, really see much out of a court than saying, oh, 20:05.900 --> 20:09.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% another new story showing that he is a corrupt person, the establishment doesn't like him. 20:09.300 --> 20:11.933 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% But I do agree that the general election is different. I think 20:11.933 --> 20:15.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the general electorate are often -- you're looking at often suburban voters who don't 20:15.866 --> 20:18.733 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% like the chaos of the Trump years, and that will remind them of that. 20:18.733 --> 20:21.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: There's also -- we do have some polling. We have somewhat of a picture on 20:21.666 --> 20:26.433 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% this. I mean, nearly a quarter of Trump voters say that he should not be the nominee if he's 20:26.433 --> 20:31.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% convicted. So, the conviction element, if there is at least one, could change the dynamic. 20:33.466 --> 20:35.966 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But again, we don't know. I mean, we just don't know. We've never seen it. 20:35.966 --> 20:39.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JOSH DAWSEY: The core strategy of a Trump legal team is to delay all of these trials 20:39.466 --> 20:43.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% as much as they can, to throw as much chum in the water, to file as many things as they can, 20:43.833 --> 20:48.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% to postpone things as long as they can, and to push them all until after the election. 20:48.100 --> 20:53.066 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% They're trying that at court -- they're trying that. Every way they can, every motion they can, 20:54.966 --> 20:57.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% every procedural thing they can do, the entire strategy is to push this into -- 20:57.200 --> 20:59.066 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Which suggests that they while they understand 20:59.066 --> 21:04.033 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% that being indicted is good electoral strategy, being convicted is a bad -- 21:05.800 --> 21:07.466 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JOSH DAWSEY: Right, they know that. Being convicted in some of these cases, 21:07.466 --> 21:10.700 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% particularly the J6 case in Washington, which they fear a lot, 21:10.700 --> 21:14.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% because they think it will be a more liberal jury, they worry about that. 21:16.733 --> 21:18.833 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% JERUSALEM DEMSAS: And the backdrop of this though is that the parties are so much weaker now, 21:18.833 --> 21:21.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% right? You say we haven't really seen this before but also we haven't seen such an apparatus, 21:21.666 --> 21:25.200 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Republican Party, Democratic Party. They probably, in another era, would be able to 21:25.200 --> 21:28.733 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% replace a candidate, would be able to either create the pressure or to have the sort of 21:28.733 --> 21:33.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% control over the way that the primaries play out that they don't really have at this point. 21:33.533 --> 21:35.566 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right. I want to -- in our last few minutes, 21:35.566 --> 21:40.533 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I want to talk about sort of the mirror image of this conversation, Joe Biden's 21:42.600 --> 21:46.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% decision to talk about the Trump threat to democracy as an electoral strategy. Obviously, 21:48.233 --> 21:50.633 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% it's a moral issue, it's an existential issue, it's a constitutional issue, 21:50.633 --> 21:55.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% but it's also an election strategy, the Valley Forge speech that we just saw. 21:57.933 --> 22:00.633 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% And before I do that, I want you to listen to something that Trump 22:00.633 --> 22:05.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% just said. This is kind of evocative, I think. 22:07.533 --> 22:10.600 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% DONALD TRUMP: Crooked Joe is staging his pathetic fear-mongering campaign event in 22:10.600 --> 22:14.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Pennsylvania today. Did you see him? He was stuttering through the whole thing. 22:14.000 --> 22:19.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% He's got a -- he's a threat to democracy. They've weaponized government. He's saying 22:21.866 --> 22:26.866 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% I'm a threat to democracy. He's a threat to democracy. Couldn't read the word. 22:33.400 --> 22:38.400 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: So, okay, like vintage Trump with this democracy overlay. I mean, 22:40.466 --> 22:43.700 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% mocking stuttering and all the rest, put that aside for right now. 22:43.700 --> 22:48.700 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% So, my question is, it's as stark as can be, Biden is out there saying Donald 22:51.766 --> 22:56.733 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Trump's behavior is a total threat to democracy. Trump is doing what he does best, which is flip 22:58.866 --> 23:03.400 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% the accusation. He's accused of something, he accuses his opponent of doing that same thing. 23:03.400 --> 23:08.400 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% My question is, Laura, do the people of America care about the threat 23:10.266 --> 23:15.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% to democracy as much as they care about economic issues, abortion, social issues? 23:16.733 --> 23:18.866 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: I believe that they care about it a lot. Now, 23:18.866 --> 23:21.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% is it at the same level as the economy? I mean, polls would say that the economy is still number 23:21.800 --> 23:26.800 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% one. But the 2022 midterm election results, plus polling, has shown Biden's campaign that 23:30.733 --> 23:35.466 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% Democratic voters care about this. They care about what happened on January 6th. They are 23:35.466 --> 23:40.333 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% fearful of political violence. And I even heard that when I was out on the campaign trail in 23:40.333 --> 23:44.766 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% 2022 from voters in states like Michigan and in Georgia, that they were worried about this. 23:44.766 --> 23:46.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Josh, give us 20 seconds on what 23:46.700 --> 23:51.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% you saw there and what it suggests to you about the campaign as it unfolds. 23:51.266 --> 23:54.300 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% JOSH DAWSEY: The Trump campaign definitely knows that democracy is going to be one of the leading 23:54.300 --> 23:59.266 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% lines of attack from Biden's campaign. I mean, you see what they've tried to do since January 6th, 24:01.600 --> 24:04.666 align:left position:10% line:71% size:80% 2021, to sort of whitewash what's happened, to sort of make it into something that it wasn't, 24:06.466 --> 24:08.533 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% to try and keep him from talking about electoral fraud, even though he does it 24:08.533 --> 24:11.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% all the time. A lot of his advisers wouldn't talk about everything else. They understand 24:11.900 --> 24:16.633 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% it's a vulnerability for them. They think their strengths are attacking Biden on immigration, 24:16.633 --> 24:21.000 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% on economy, on other issues, but that is fundamentally, and they know that, 24:21.000 --> 24:25.366 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% a weakness of their campaign, that they have to deal with the fallout of all of this. 24:25.366 --> 24:29.466 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Peter, have you ever seen a campaign that's this stark in the 24:29.466 --> 24:34.466 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% sense that the two candidates are ready to argue about the nature of democracy itself? 24:36.466 --> 24:39.100 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% PETER BAKER: No, because it's about the fundamental nature of America at this point, 24:39.100 --> 24:41.866 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% right? It's not about, okay, who has a tax plan is better than the other 24:41.866 --> 24:44.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% guy's tax plan or a health care plan. This is about something whether you 24:44.833 --> 24:48.433 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% believe in the system as it has existed or whether you're trying to blow it up. 24:48.433 --> 24:52.666 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% And Trump is not trying to tell us anything other than what he wants to do. It's not a 24:52.666 --> 24:56.833 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% Democratic talking point to say that he's out for revenge, that he talks about termination of 24:56.833 --> 25:00.300 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% the Constitution. Those are Trump's talking points. He has been very open that he wants 25:00.300 --> 25:04.900 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% to get back into power to get revenge against those who crossed him. And if 25:04.900 --> 25:09.233 align:left position:20% line:77% size:70% he has to terminate the Constitution to do it, as he has said, he's willing to do it. 25:09.233 --> 25:12.433 align:left position:20% line:71% size:70% JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Well, it's fascinating, but, unfortunately, we need to leave it 25:12.433 --> 25:17.433 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% there for now. I want to thank our panelists for joining us and for sharing their reporting. 25:19.333 --> 25:22.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% On PBS News weekend tomorrow, a look at the devastating impact on the children 25:22.266 --> 25:27.266 align:left position:10% line:77% size:80% caught in the crossfire of the Israel-Hamas War. That's Saturday on "PBS NEWS WEEKEND." 25:28.566 --> 25:30.966 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% I'm Jeffrey Goldberg. Good night from Washington.